Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Cherry Wine]

All is revealed in the trading volume during the 10-min drop before the Close. Follow along with the numbers:

• today's FINRA-reported (srch "TSLA") 14.96M shorted on 24.58M traded shares (60.9% short)
• On average, FINRA short volume is 49.5% of total volume, +/- 9.6% (1 Std Dev)
  • FINRA short vol today was 2.8M shares above the mean
  • 2.78M extra shares traded during the drop (3:49 - 3:58 pm)

If an avg percentage of shorting happened during the rest of the day, a dump of 2.8 M shares sold short in 10 min from 3:49 - 3:58 pm fully explains the price action.

Paging @Cherry Wine Can you provide any Level II data for a glimpse into the order book at that time? How many shares needed to be dumped at 3:49 pm in order to burn through the Order Book?

Note: FINRA largely reports on trading activity of its retail broker members, so today's market action can largely be attributed to their activities. Today's Non-FINRA (MMs and some large Investment Banks) volume was 57.98% (-0.54 Std Dev below mean of 60.32%) which is quite a bit below their normal trading activity. Today was largely about retain Brokerages.

Cheers!

I don't have historical order book data, but I did happen to snap a shot of it right around 12:35ish when the stock was trading at $960. See the post below. Have to eyeball it, but maybe somewhere around 130k-140k?

Got a big hill to climb if she wants to hit $1,000!

View attachment 507883

 

[StealthP3D]

Gawd. I swear the CNBC panelists weren't listening to a word Ron Baron was saying. They asked him five or six times the same question of wouldn't it make sense to sell at least SOME Tesla stock at this range because, you know, the price has gone up a lot quickly (yes, that's the entire depth of analysis the panelist had).

The CNBC talking heads like to act like they are expert investors but that image is quickly shattered (at least to knowledgable viewers) when they talk to a good investor like Ron, someone who has amassed billions through wise investments.

If the CNBC crew were such good investors they would be running their own business building portfolios worth hundreds of millions to billions of dollars instead of commuting to the studio every morning to collect their paychecks like the working stiffs they are. Errr...da...it went up a lot - isn't that our sell signal? LOL!

 

[Right_Said_Fred]

Could it be a Gigafactory not for Tesla but for SpaceX? That fleet of thousands of Starships - “Battlestar Galactica” - has to be built somewhere and Texas sounds like a good place.

 

[Buckminster]

S&P500 inclusion:

Tesla now have to fork out for Elon's second milestone payment (market cap >$150Bn). This means that Q1 now probably won't be enough. However, given the SP spike, delaying S&P500 inclusion is beneficial - allows me to leverage up slowly as we go.

So Q2 ER will be out ~30th July with inclusion some time in August. Unless of course Elon's 3rd, 4th and 5th payments get triggered?

I knew Elon was gonna get paid a lot but I had no idea what effect they would have.

 

[S3XY]

I bought a S3XY white hoodie yesterday!

Thanks! But I really prefer the black one.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

S&P500 inclusion:

Tesla now have to fork out for Elon's second milestone payment (market cap >$150Bn). This means that Q1 now probably won't be enough. However, given the SP spike, delaying S&P500 inclusion is beneficial - allows me to leverage up slowly as we go.

So Q2 ER will be out ~30th July with inclusion some time in August. Unless of course Elon's 3rd, 4th and 5th payments get triggered?

I knew Elon was gonna get paid a lot but I had no idea what effect they would have.

Are you forgetting about FCA payments starting in Q1? That's like 200 million a quarter. More than enough to cover Elon's milestone payouts

 

[Fobble]

Could it be a Gigafactory not for Tesla but for SpaceX? That fleet of thousands of Starships - “Battlestar Galactica” - has to be built somewhere and Texas sounds like a good place.

I suspect same. It can be for SpaceX. There were rumor years ago that Amazon Jeff Bezo planned to build and launch his rockets, around Northwest TX if I recall correctly. Wide open plane and no complaint from whiners. Perfect place.

 

[mickle]

Are you sure that doesn’t read “Gig at ex’s”? He’ll be a DJ at a party for his sons’ mom?
A Dad’s gotta do what a Dad’s gotta do.

Maybe its the Giga Taxes we are all going to owe on our profits.

 

[jepicken]

SPYX:
SPYX

Funny story about SPYX. I learned about it in November 2018, and decided to swap a portion of my S&P500 index funds in my 401k for it. I sold about $100k of the index in my 401k, transferred the proceeds to my "Brokeragelink" account - part of the 401k that allows trading a larger list of funds - and entered a market buy order for as many shares as I could afford.

The next day I got a note from Fidelity saying I need to address the negative cash balance in my account. WTF?! I told them it isn't a margin account, so it shouldn't even be possible to have a negative balance, and why would they even accept an order that caused a negative balance, and and... They could not explain how it happened, basically just said it is what it is and you need to fix it immediately. I had to sell about $1k of SPYX to cover it.

Eventually I figured out what happened on my own: when I entered the order, the (current price * number of shares) was less than the cash I had available, so Fidelity accepted the order. My single $100k order, being a market order, blew through part of the order book and caused the price to increase about 1.5%, and Fidelity stupidly continued to execute the order at higher, unaffordable prices.

I was absolutely dumbfounded. I had assumed any ETF was big enough to be completely immune to influence from a peon like me. But SPYX is a very small fund - only $462M assets today, and must have been even smaller back in 2018. So my $100k order was enough to move it noticeably. The bump was clearly visible on the daily chart, right at the time I placed the order, so I'm pretty sure it was me. It's my claim to fame as a fairly small-time investor - I single-handedly moved the price of an ETF by 1.5%!

The moral of the story is, be careful with SPYX since it's a tiny, tiny fund. I will never use a market order with that ETF again.

 

[printf42]

FULL RON BARON INTERVIEW

Watched, well worth the 30 min, Ron is very good at stopping the clowns from interrupting him, and did get his message out loud and clear.

One gem found on 29:30, this guy(never learned his name, never wanna learn) asked “(given the stock price today) and the fact Elon tried 420, do you think he was trying to rob the share holders?”
Wonder whether he asked the same question in 2018.

 

[Rammstein]

If it hits $1,100 tomorrow, I'll get a small Tesla logo tattoo and post it here. I hate tattoos btw

Haha I just got my first tattoo in Vegas yesterday to celebrate! Mind you I have thought about this tattoo for years.

 

[Khamul]

I suspect same. It can be for SpaceX. There were rumor years ago that Amazon Jeff Bezo planned to build and launch his rockets, around Northwest TX if I recall correctly. Wide open plane and no complaint from whiners. Perfect place.

It’s not for SpaceX. When launching orbital rockets, you need a very, VERY large empty launch corridor to the east (because they launch east 95% of the time). We’re talking hundreds of miles large. In addition, SpaceX have launch pads at Boca Chica and the cape in Florida.

They have also just rented space in the LA harbour to do starship manufactoring. That HAS to happen right by the ocean, because both Starship and Super Heavy is 9 meters in diameter, and close to impossible to transport by land.

So I doubt very much that it is for SpaceX.

 

[Fact Checking]

Frankfurt trading TSLA at €835, which is $922 - a nice +2% gain over the Nasdaq after-market closing price of $904.

Volume is comparatively significant for Frankfurt trading, at over 20k shares.

Edit: now around €820.

 

[Singuy]

Watched, well worth the 30 min, Ron is very good at stopping the clowns from interrupting him, and did get his message out loud and clear.

One gem found on 29:30, this guy(never learned his name, never wanna learn) asked “(given the stock price today) and the fact Elon tried 420, do you think he was trying to rob the share holders?”
Wonder whether he asked the same question in 2018.

Elon obviously can time travel, saw the sp in 2020 and jump backed to 2018 to rob shareholders.

 

[Runarbt]

Premarket frankfurt 830 euro or $920

 

[T@oo]

I really don’t like tattoos

Fun fact, me neither.

 

[UnknownSoldier]

If Elon is seriously going to announce Giga Texas, then holy hell this stock is going to have room to run. I might need to re-leverage a bit even. Sigh. Every time I think I got out, they pull me back in...

 

[kengchang]

Permit

F19-0024 - Installation of new backup power packs at North Paint Building. Equipment anchorage and installation of new concrete pad.

 

[kalefranz]

Oh god. SpaceX is in Texas. My crazy theory might be correct

I really don’t like tattoos

Edit: He changed his location on Twitter to Austin Texas
View attachment 508077

Tesla chip designers in Austin...
Elon Musk on Twitter

 

[Silentk]

...at 2020, in 2020...

Exactly!