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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
Thanks for doing all the work for us @Fact Checking. Took less than 2 min to file the complaintCorrect, someone is selling in large volumes (compared to available liquidity) onFrankfurtXetra to keep the TSLA price down - this could be in coordination with the Nasdaq open in about 8 minutes for a bear attack.
There is no news anywhere, manufactured or otherwise, to justify such a move. I believe hedge funds that wrote calls might be worried about this Friday's expiry and started a price and market manipulation bear attack when TSLA was getting close to $970 yesterday.
Note that the market used by the bear attack is the Xetra exchange, not Frankfurt:
View attachment 508089
Note the very high volumes, while both Frankfurt and Stuttgart exchanges barely registered any trading. So the short who launched this short attack is working through Xetra to have maximum impact while using one of the least liquid European exchanges that trades Tesla.
Edit, here's how the illegal market manipulation bear attack transitioned over to Nasdaq pre-market trading:
View attachment 508090
The first chart is 4 minutes into Nasdaq pre-market trading which started at 4am ET - the chart lined up below is Xetra, 10am CEST at the same time:
- The short attacker, shortly before Nasdaq trading opened, started closing the short position (the bounce-back), and volume died down.
- There was no genuine, legitimate selling pressure on Xetra - the whole point was to depress the TSLA price in Nasdaq open through the use of a single low liquidity European exchanges, using just around 70,000 shares of volume.
- On Nasdaq volume is now lower than the European one - I suspect the bear attacker is using limit orders to keep the price fixed at significantly lower prices than yesterday's close, to establish a negative sentiment going into the open.
#2nd edit, 15 minutes more of the same charts:
View attachment 508091
Here you can see from the Xetra volume that whoever manufactured that price dip, very likely reversed the Xetra short position almost completely and moved operations over to the Nasdaq pre-market. While we are guessing here, regulators have access to transaction logs and can identify whether it was the same trading entity creating the dip and then recovering the short position.
Also note how Xetra volume effectively dried up after this price manipulation event - suggesting that whoever did this didn't have any legitimate EU investment purposes, but the sole purpose was to manipulate the Nasdaq early-hours opening price.
There is very few legitimate reasons for such trading activity - pretty much the only purpose is to manipulate and distort the market.
#3rd edit, this is yesterday's "$100 TSLA flash crash" event:
View attachment 508095
That is a 30sec chart from Nasdaq on 02/04/2020, where unknown entities manipulated the TSLA price at around 15:49 ET and the surrounding minutes to drop $100 in a short period of time, by using aggressive, abusive market orders or far-below-bid sell limit orders to 'mark down the price' without any real intention to sell effectively.
In this case too no rational investor in Tesla securities would execute trades in this fashion (because they'd lose tens of millions of dollars executing sell orders in such a poor fashion), and there was no Tesla or macro news driving this action.
Time for Tesla shareholders to file SEC complaints I suspect. European regulators should have no trouble finding out who was selling short those shares well below yesterday's market prices.
Here's the place to file a SEC Investor Complaint - European shareholders can file complaints too:
After filling out personal details, I'd suggest a variant of this for the "Tell Us About Your Complaint" field:
On or around February 5, 2020, 4am ET, a "short and distort" campaign was launched against Tesla (TSLA:NASDAQ) investors in European trading, on the low liquidity Xetra exchange (TL0:XTRA), and on the Nasdaq early-trading system.
The purpose of this attack was to illegally manipulate the Nasdaq early trading opening price, by unknown parties suspected to be options writers for $800+ strikes on Friday's 02/07 TSLA options expiry series.
A timestamped, annotated summary of events can be found at this link:
Code:https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/posts/4451429/
The link also contains description of the "$100 TSLA Flash Crash" market manipulation event that occurred at around 02/04/2020 15:49 ET, when unknown parties executed large and deliberately ineffective order flow in an effort to mark down the TSLA price and trigger "stop-loss" orders, which caused harm to TSLA investors.
All of these abusive, illegal actions have harmed the market value of my TSLA shares or options.
Only file a SEC complaint if you agree with the contents, of course!
Also note that even if this SEC administration decides not to inquire into these market anomalies, there's an election at the end of the year and the next administration might. All investor complaints have to be archived and stored indefinitely by the SEC I believe.
Fact Checking
Well-Known Member
Exactly my thinking too!
Initially I thought Mordor was the Rust Belt - the (former) center of U.S. car manufacturing - but from a sustainable energy and climate change perspective the heart of the U.S. oil industry is Mordor...
Also, in the next 5-10 years demographic trends suggest that Texas will turn purple, then solidly blue. Urban concentrations are already blue. With time a great state could be as supportive of Tesla as California - and this might protect Tesla on the federal level as well.
Texas is a great place to start a new Gigafactory.
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anthonyj
Stonks
Permanent Tesla tattoo on my butt if $2k this week. Don’t care if I get banned
CNBC has been bashing at full bore this a.m.
TheTalkingMule
Distributed Energy Enthusiast
Nice to see shorts will at least be fighting positive macros today.
I'm gonna counter that with this:
TESLA INC SENIOR EXEC SAYS SHANGHAI PLANT PLANS TO RESTART PRODUCTION IN SHANGHAI ON FEB 10
Chickenlittle
Banned
I guess Texas gigafactory could be what trump was talking about weeks ago? God how I hate to type that name
If this GF rumor has legs, it may also become a trend amongst TX auto dealers and their lobbyists. I suggest sitting down with their heads on their laps.
i voted against Texas because I wanted Michigan. Put the gigafactory right in the backyard of the irrelevant 3. But Texas is my second choice.
Not to inject politics, but Trump's comments combined with Elon's tweet could conjure up the image of Giga-Texas trying to shore-up Republican standing in Texas. Above the implications for Tesla, a blue Texas would lock out national electoral wins for Republicans for generations.
MOD: But you did inject politics. Don’t.
And NO follow-up along those lines
~~Vetinari
That's much bigger news. There's no way that delivery will be the bottleneck in China. Production will be, quite obviously.
DFibRL8R
Active Member
Insert why not both taco girl.
Very good questions. I use the P/S ONLY to set price goals and reset levels.
All the other factors are part of my initial evaluation and periodic review. For every investment I own and/or manage I do a review every quarter when financial reports or other material information becomes available. I do have a tiny handful of 'measures of merit' that I always evaluate. Whenever one of those measures departs from my expectations that triggers deeper analysis. If everything seems as expected I usually make only a cursory review.
Just now I am tempted to describe my entire investment analysis approach. That will go pretty far OT. If anybody thinks such would be helpful I can think about it.
Factually it goes back to basic commercial credit risk analysis I learned when taught factoring/forfait financing (usually with minimal financial statements), bonded warehousing, auto dealer financing in the Middle east and other such bizarre things. It then goes to Benjamin Graham.
Security Analysis (book) - Wikipedia
I admit that I learned almost everything I know about securities at Columbia Business School, so was deeply indoctrinated in Graham & Dodd and, later Black and Scholes. In my opinion anybody seriously interested in securities investment should study both. I strongly recommend learning the origins and structure fo the Black and Scholes work:
http://www.columbia.edu/~mh2078/FoundationsFE/BlackScholes.pdf
A quick glance at my link makes it clear that this approach is deeply analytical. Unless one understands this quite well one is doomed to mystical perspective about securities market volatility. Understanding this model brings an acute recognition of it's inherent risks. Anybody who wants to play with this subject needs to understand this also:
https://www.amazon.com/When-Genius-...ords=when+genius+failed&qid=1580909871&sr=8-1
Why do I suggest the infamous LTCM affair? Partly because Myron Scholes was a principal player.
Bluntly no predictive model ever works outside the specified boundary conditions!
Sorry for this seeming digression. Right now, in the midst of market euphoria, people are rushing to find arcane explanations and analogous situations. These do not really exist. The political, economic and environmental conditions of today have never before existed. These 'boundary conditions' are so violently departing from any post-World War II norms that we can only guess what will happen next. Nobody knows.
In this environment I resort to fundamentals. Without describing my endless machinations I only state my conclusion:
TSLA is almost my least risky investment. I absolutely expect volatility to continue, and a huge drop will happen. I refuse to try to time anything. I am long, will stay long, will continue to analyze the options markets and will continue to not actually participate in those markets with my money.
I debated about posting my interminable analysis and decided to maintain my anonymity.
Note: I admit I was scarred by LTCM and the aftermath. I participated in the post-mortem and worked on the merger/acquisition integration of more than one of the corpses. I spent decades helping develop and deploy stochastic models for financial decisions. They are exceedingly useful.
Note 2: In my opinion retail investors who play with futures/options are almost always doomed to lose. There is much too much semi-proprietary information for any individual to consistently win. It is very much like a casino game that has skill components. The house always wins in the end.
Note 3: Some of my professional and personal friends seem to disagree with my Note 2. Not coincidently, such friends are on the sell side.
Pezpunk
Active Member
welp looks like i'm increasing my share count this am.
Ok, maybe true, but I was just down in Austin for the Fully Charged event and it reminded me of how crowded everything is down there. We have a tone of space in the Denton area or a little west of DFW.Austin (Travis County) does have low unemployment (look at the dark green county just south of the centre (Gillespie) and go two to the right).
But that said... it's one of the most progressive places in Texas, and it's the capitol, so it's a good target in those regards.
MTL_HABS1909
Active Member
Pre-market looking ugly. Anyone think we recover? Or do we end much lower?
Pezpunk
Active Member
it's only down 5%. don't let the big numbers fool you. when the stock is worth $840 instead of $240 you have to readjust what you consider a "big drop".
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