Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[TradingInvest]

Just a note, this will likely increase the number of cases the coming days:
Wuhan "Fire Eye" lab beings trial operation, able to complete 10,000 nCoV PCR tests per day. : China_Flu

Cases will increase, that's not a problem. They predicted the number will peak in a week or so.

The most important indicator is: will Chinese factories start on Feb 10th as planned. If they do, the crisis is over. If they postpone another week, still fine. Longer than that is a problem. I'm not concerned unless there is a sign tells me different. Anyway vaccine is coming in like 3 weeks.

 

[KarenRei]

@KarenRei : Which fund has the most percentage of SpaceX ? I looked up the two of Ron Baron, which have both holdings of around 4.5%. Are there others ? Thanks for your info. (Bolding by me)

Honestly, it's been a while since I researched funds that contain SpaceX. The last time I did, they were all relatively minor fractions :Þ It was the fact that someone brought up Ron Baron's funds the other day that reminded me of this.

 

[Dare]

Exxon/Mobile will not go quietly into the night. This is a knife—that will continue for years. I’ve got Elon’s back to the bitter end. Do all the you can to advance the Master Plan. Buy the dips, it’s the best way to fight back.

They are luddites. You cannot fight technological evolution. Tesla’s victory is certain. It is a safe and grounded investment. Go long. Stay long.

To do well while doing good is honorable.

That’s my thinking in a nutshell. What kind of world do you want to live in? Humanity needs to get off fossil fuels yesterday . I’m voting with my money.

 

[woodisgood]

It's possible that I may have doubled my number of LEAPs.

 

[Remus]

W.r.t the virus.

From information I gathered Chinese government is not telling the whole story, medical systems in hubei has been completely overwhelmed, inducing a panic in surrounding areas.

Hangzhou initiated travel restrictions within the city limits. Most people live in gated communities. And most of those communities banned visitors, limiting resident to one in/out per three days! Some places shutdown gas stations to discourage travel (yeah I know, positive for EVs). I don't expect this situation to get better soon. All manufacturer suppliers will be affected.

On the other hand the hot weather and the new development of drugs would likely eradicate this thing by late summer. And since Tesla successfully recovered from the model 3 production hell lasting more than six months, I have no doubt Tesla would comes back swinging faster than everyone else.

Just expect bumpy ride, as always.

 

[humbaba]

I could be wrong but I don't think he's ever been wrong so much as had a wider margin of error than people thought was acceptable but otherwise his numbers were accurate as to the general trend.

That's cute, but he has been completely wrong as to the direction of movement at critical points. He has claimed that depressed stock price was from "weak longs" when in fact it was due to heavy shorting. He is either ignorant or deliberately manipulative.

What he sells is seductive: due to rules that favor short sellers, there is almost no disclosure about positions and activity -- but he can provide you with real time short interest data. Sounds good, doesn't it? But you should know what they say about things that sound too good to be true.

Anyway, here's a prior post on the subject.

I've said for a while that people should check @ihors3 track record, but now I've done the work for them. Although there are a few points where it tracks pretty close to reality there are some "gee, what happened there" moments. The low point of the share price here was $185 at which point @ihors3 would have you believe the shorts had covered down to 39.13MM shares, but in reality it was at its highest point of 43.66MM.

Or, a bit earlier, short interest had risen so sharply that the value at risk in shorting actually increased despite the stock price being forced down. This is when he claimed it was weak longs selling, not new net shorting, that was driving the price down.

In September there was a reduction in short interest that he deferred until October, by which point short interest was rising again. Most recently, he has been overstating the short interest, down playing the net covering that has been going on.

Anyone who uses his prognostications for trading is being foolish.

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[TradingInvest]

Looks like a lot of uptick capping the last half hour to prevent the SP to recover with the markets. Totally flat while SPX and COMPX are nicely up. Will this continue all day or will they run out of steam? Not sure about the current volume.

Anyone who knows the answer to this question, would become a billionaire very quickly. It's all probability. 30-minutes chart looks good for now. These things can change within seconds.

 

[Cosmacelf]

New Wuwa video:

(My apologies if someone else posted it and I missed it)

Interesting tidbit there that he thought some American managers have been recalled back to the states (which would make sense anyways since the factory is shut down). I wonder if they are being repurposed in the interim for Giga Texas planning? Also he confirms restart date of February 10th.

 

[ABC2D]

Is it possible that the yesterday's massive closing dip with this morning pre-marking manipulations and following manufactured selloff triggering the uptick rule was purposeful for this week options expiration? Is it easier/cheaper to keep the price down with uptick rule?

 

[⚡️ELECTROMAN⚡️]

The TSLA chart kind of looks like the VW short squeeze. Hope not because I've been buying on this dip. On the other hand if it's heading substantially lower I'll be better off in ten years by being able to load up on cheap shares.

 

[humbaba]

If Ford had a bad Q4 and has a bleak outlook for this year, just wait until Cybertruck eats into there F-150 sales. I don't understand why Ford isn't shorted more than Tesla....

As others have said, its due to the dividend. I'm not particularly knowledgeable about stocks et al, but IIRC Ford's dividend is currently > 6% which I believe is fairly high. The impression (quite possibly wrong) that I have gotten is that dividends are there to keep investors from fleeing a dying company. That is, a company that is healthy and growing (e.g., Tesla) pays no dividend while one whose growth has slowed starts to pay a dividend (e.g., Apple), and those that are "mature" (no longer growing) pay moderate dividends to prop the stock price up (e.g., GM) with the dividend growing as they increasingly rely on it for life support (e.g., Ford).

 

[Cosmacelf]

Re: the coronavirus' effects on the Shanghai factory...I've read that the factory is limited only based on battery availability. I may be wrong about this because its just from what I've read.

So, potentially naive question, but is it possible at all for the factory to actually output what it expects to in Q1 if there's a "surplus" of unused batteries (intended for production for Shanghai) and output is increased to cover (in a burst) for the time lost due to the coronavirus?

I believe battery cells also come from Chinese factories? If so, that will be delayed. If not, then maybe. China will cause all sorts of other supply chain disruptions though since Tesla sources other parts from China for the MIC Model 3. Indeed, supply chain disruption will happen worldwide.

 

[TradingInvest]

Honestly, it's been a while since I researched funds that contain SpaceX. The last time I did, they were all relatively minor fractions :Þ It was the fact that someone brought up Ron Baron's funds the other day that reminded me of this.

Talking about this, Ron Baron said in 2018 Tesla asked him to set up a vehicle so retail investors can stay in Tesla after going private. He declined.

(I think) Elon needs a vehicle that holds 50% in Tesla and 50% in SpaceX, all small investors can stay in. I think SEC is working on the "accredited investor rule" which limits all the small investors. Watch out, once they fix this rule...

 

[Unpilot]

About to find out if 750 is the floor

 

[SageBrush]

those that are "mature" (no longer growing) pay moderate dividends to prop the stock price up

Between growing and shrinking there is ~ stable profits that increases with inflation/population growth. The mature industries are examples. Since they are not investing in growth they distribute their profits.

I'm not suggesting that is Ford. Ford looks to be in deep doodoo because they are chin-high in debt and I suspect that they do not have the capital to stay on the ICE treadmill, let alone transition to BEV. I expect bailout talk soon.

 

[azaz]

pretty crazy how one concerted effort at 3:50 did this

 

[Nocturnal]

The TSLA chart kind of looks like the VW short squeeze. Hope not because I've been buying on this dip. On the other hand if it's heading substantially lower I'll be better off in ten years by being able to load up on cheap shares.

Everyone is throwing around the classic "bubble" chart. The chart assumes a reversion to the mean (350 or so) and that doesn't make sense for several reasons. First of all, this isn't Tesla's first big run up and drop. Second, things have fundamentally changed for the company. Obviously I don't have a crystal ball but I can't see it going anywhere close to pre Q3 levels.

As others have said, its due to the dividend. I'm not particularly knowledgeable about stocks et al, but IIRC Ford's dividend is currently > 6% which I believe is fairly high. The impression (quite possibly wrong) that I have gotten is that dividends are there to keep investors from fleeing a dying company. That is, a company that is healthy and growing (e.g., Tesla) pays no dividend while one whose growth has slowed starts to pay a dividend (e.g., Apple), and those that are "mature" (no longer growing) pay moderate dividends to prop the stock price up (e.g., GM) with the dividend growing as they increasingly rely on it for life support (e.g., Ford).

The dividend discount model states a stock price is the expected, and discounted future value of all future dividends. I believe that is the case because otherwise we are just trading artificial currency. Once a company starts giving dividends to me that says "we don't have anywhere productive to invest this money and will be riding our current model into the ground."​

 

[W84M3]

Just keeps dropping, with 750 breached now looking at 700

 

[bhtooefr]

Is it possible that the yesterday's massive closing dip with this morning pre-marking manipulations and following manufactured selloff triggering the uptick rule was purposeful for this week options expiration? Is it easier/cheaper to keep the price down with uptick rule?

Harder, because you have to do it with limit orders set above the current price, instead of spiking the price down with market sell orders designed to punch through the order book.

I suspect what they were after, now that @Artful Dodger pointed out my error with the uptick rule, was stopping the extreme bull run, so that they could then manipulate it on Friday (when the uptick rule is no longer in play).

 

[Cosmacelf]

Talking about this, Ron Baron said in 2018 Tesla asked him to set up a vehicle so retail investors can stay in Tesla after going private. He declined.

Wasn’t it the other way around? Baron offered this but Tesla decided not to take the company private, so the plan got shelved. That’s what I heard on the recent 30 minute CNBC video.

Elon needs a vehicle that holds 50% in Tesla and 50% in SpaceX, all small investors can stay in. I think SEC is working on the "accredited investor rule" which limits all the small investors. Watch out, once they fix this rule...

Not sure that Elon cares or needs small investors in SpaceX. It’s doing fine.