I agree short term movements are unpredictable, but that doesn't mean it's not worth reacting. Perhaps some piece of news hits tomorrow like a new SEC investigation and FUD associated with that causes a large drop in the share price. The timing of this event and the reaction to it would be unpredictable, but if we can see through it as a "nothing-burger" and realize an excessively large reaction has occurred then we take advantage of the event to buy the dip and sell when the price returns to normal. Of course not every dip is worth chasing.
Sure, I would have liked to have improved my ‘buys’ using near term information and the knowledge I’ve gleaned here.
Still, I’ll stick to the advantages offered by being a retail shareholder not beholden to any quarterly goals and whatnot (advantages such as I can load up, not rebalance, and not
have to do anything) and just hold. I’ll not be exposing my portfolio to the "pro’s" BS by trying to match the timing of their games.
Knock yourself out though and good luck with that timing thing.
To my mind, it is so
not worth
reacting to near term "news" when you know how contaminated the media feeds are and you just know someone is trying to pull your chain.
I would only consider selling if I:
a) came to the conclusion that my investment thesis was wrong and no longer applicable
or:
b) found a better investment
Since I think neither of these is likely, *I’ll* be the last one out:
Elon - After you.
Me - No, please, after you.
Elon - I insist. After you.
Me - I couldn’t possibly. After you.
...
Edit - BTW: By holding, I’m implementing “Bulls make money." By shorting, others are going for "Bears make money." Those are not mutually exclusive. Your strategy could be considered trying to play both directions and that is the one, as I understand things, where "Pigs get slaughtered." Just sayin’