Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Fact Checking]

No Xetra shenanigans so far today, on medium volume trading:

View attachment 508480​

Note that the overnight "drop" in this graph is due to Xetra closing 2pm ET, two hours before Nasdaq regular trading closes, in reality the after-hours price on Nasdaq closed on $727, i.e. €660 - the current €676 price is a +2% gain over that closing price, which, if things don't change in the next 15 minutes, might be carried over into Nasdaq pre-market opening price of around ~$743.

I believe the gains are primarily a reflection of the overnight macro improvements in Asian markets.

Once Nasdaq pre-market trading opens, these secondary exchanges will mostly follow the Nasdaq price.

Yes, this is what happened, Nasdaq pre-market trading just opened at $740, then ticked up to $745 and $747 (+2.7%), on low volume. Xetra quickly followed the pricing guide of Nasdaq and will continue to do so for the rest of its trading session (2pm ET).

 

[ev-enthusiast]

Folks, this rise is just the beginning (and shorts know it).
I just reread the last ER and had a look at financials as well as positive and negative catalysts.
Tesla is currently copying its Model 3 and Y factories 4 times worldwide.
Since the early beginnings it was a damn tough ride for Tesla to get here.
Please take a step back, take a deep breath, and think a bit about what is going on.
Listen to the facts and just don't get distracted.
This is a volatile stock.
Do not chicken out.
2013 here we are.

Not advice.

 

[Nuclear Fusion]

I’m predicting a bull trap over the next 2 days

 

[DrMazeppa]

The explanation of the delta hedging mechanism is very interesting. Again, incredibly valuable contributions by ReflexFunds and Fact Checking. Also thanks to AnthonyJ for the link to the video (and the author of the video of course).

Trying to move forward (I know nobody knows, but it is interesting to make predictions!), what would be the implication of all this besides confirming volatility is gonna stay with us and possibly increase (where every clear move in either direction is multiplied)?

Looking at the basic data for Max Pain, one could think the SP may be headed to 750-800 by Friday. This would be in normal conditions. Is the delta hedging mechanism and related dynamics suggesting there may be some pressure to go back to ~650 instead?

 

[Artful Dodger]

OT:

Spoiler: DVD restocked

In unrelated news, my local civic library needed to re-order copies of this important documentary: (that's what they do inventory copies get worn out)

 

[RobStark]

 

[lklundin]

Who are the biggest bears on TMC?

There used to be posts from a user @schonelucht (or something like that) that served to dampen the TMC optimism - especially when there seemed to be too much of it.

 

[Fact Checking]

This week's options positioning analysis:

(Rounded down to $10 strikes for ease of use.)

 PUT   400:  14,015 |##############      |   CALL   400:      73 |                    |
 PUT   410:   2,102 |##                  |   CALL   410:      63 |                    |
 PUT   420:   2,455 |##                  |   CALL   420:     418 |                    |
 PUT   430:   1,373 |#                   |   CALL   430:     322 |                    |
 PUT   440:   2,521 |###                 |   CALL   440:     361 |                    |
 PUT   450:   2,400 |##                  |   CALL   450:     402 |                    |
 PUT   460:   2,329 |##                  |   CALL   460:     242 |                    |
 PUT   470:   1,932 |##                  |   CALL   470:     307 |                    |
 PUT   480:   1,940 |##                  |   CALL   480:     401 |                    |
 PUT   490:   2,374 |##                  |   CALL   490:     422 |                    |
 PUT   500:   7,837 |########            |   CALL   500:     978 |#                   |
 PUT   510:   1,507 |##                  |   CALL   510:     710 |#                   |
 PUT   520:   1,689 |##                  |   CALL   520:     795 |#                   |
 PUT   530:   1,580 |##                  |   CALL   530:     573 |#                   |
 PUT   540:   2,335 |##                  |   CALL   540:     643 |#                   |
 PUT   550:   4,064 |####                |   CALL   550:     566 |#                   |
 PUT   560:   2,501 |###                 |   CALL   560:     920 |#                   |
 PUT   570:   6,224 |######              |   CALL   570:     771 |#                   |
 PUT   580:   6,117 |######              |   CALL   580:   1,028 |#                   |
 PUT   590:   2,359 |##                  |   CALL   590:   1,211 |#                   |
 PUT   600:   9,072 |#########           |   CALL   600:   1,578 |##                  |
 PUT   610:   5,328 |#####               |   CALL   610:   1,440 |#                   |
 PUT   620:   7,492 |#######             |   CALL   620:   1,322 |#                   |
 PUT   630:   3,218 |###                 |   CALL   630:   1,324 |#                   |
 PUT   640:   6,943 |#######             |   CALL   640:   1,448 |#                   |
 PUT   650:  13,198 |#############       |   CALL   650:   4,608 |#####               |
 PUT   660:   4,504 |#####               |   CALL   660:   1,602 |##                  |
 PUT   670:   5,235 |#####               |   CALL   670:   1,835 |##                  |
 PUT   680:   5,936 |######              |   CALL   680:   1,968 |##                  |
 PUT   690:   4,415 |####                |   CALL   690:   1,792 |##                  |
 PUT   700:  13,708 |##############      |   CALL   700:   5,664 |######              |
 PUT   710:   3,426 |###                 |   CALL   710:   5,215 |#####               |
 PUT   720:   6,222 |######              |   CALL   720:   5,174 |#####               |
 PUT   730:   5,279 |#####               |   CALL   730:   4,339 |####                |
 PUT   740:   2,744 |###                 |   CALL   740:   4,039 |####                |
 PUT   750:   6,514 |#######             |   CALL   750:   5,457 |#####               |
 PUT   760:   2,437 |##                  |   CALL   760:   4,658 |#####               |
 PUT   770:   2,375 |##                  |   CALL   770:   3,282 |###                 |
 PUT   780:   3,314 |###                 |   CALL   780:   4,644 |#####               |
 PUT   790:   2,343 |##                  |   CALL   790:   2,693 |###                 |
 PUT   800:   6,700 |#######             |   CALL   800:  10,785 |###########         |
 PUT   810:   1,533 |##                  |   CALL   810:   4,208 |####                |
 PUT   820:   1,533 |##                  |   CALL   820:   1,773 |##                  |
 PUT   830:     825 |#                   |   CALL   830:   2,887 |###                 |
 PUT   840:   1,265 |#                   |   CALL   840:   2,511 |###                 |
 PUT   850:   3,027 |###                 |   CALL   850:   4,768 |#####               |
 PUT   860:   1,242 |#                   |   CALL   860:   2,085 |##                  |
 PUT   870:   2,082 |##                  |   CALL   870:   2,029 |##                  |
 PUT   880:   1,823 |##                  |   CALL   880:   1,987 |##                  |
 PUT   890:   1,387 |#                   |   CALL   890:   1,348 |#                   |
 PUT   900:   6,123 |######              |   CALL   900:   7,259 |#######             |
 PUT   910:   1,192 |#                   |   CALL   910:   1,912 |##                  |
 PUT   920:     826 |#                   |   CALL   920:   1,692 |##                  |
 PUT   930:     628 |#                   |   CALL   930:   1,644 |##                  |
 PUT   940:     323 |                    |   CALL   940:   1,521 |##                  |
 PUT   950:     563 |#                   |   CALL   950:   4,135 |####                |
 PUT   960:     206 |                    |   CALL   960:   1,607 |##                  |
 PUT   970:     116 |                    |   CALL   970:   1,170 |#                   |
 PUT   980:     112 |                    |   CALL   980:     837 |#                   |
 PUT   990:     266 |                    |   CALL   990:   1,968 |##                  |
 PUT 1,000:     242 |                    |   CALL 1,000:  11,673 |############        |
 PUT 1,010:      72 |                    |   CALL 1,010:   1,586 |##                  |
 PUT 1,020:      29 |                    |   CALL 1,020:   1,144 |#                   |
 PUT 1,030:      93 |                    |   CALL 1,030:     540 |#                   |
 PUT 1,040:      67 |                    |   CALL 1,040:     702 |#                   |
 PUT 1,050:      34 |                    |   CALL 1,050:   1,635 |##                  |
 PUT 1,060:      63 |                    |   CALL 1,060:   1,126 |#                   |
 PUT 1,070:      24 |                    |   CALL 1,070:     460 |                    |
 PUT 1,080:      16 |                    |   CALL 1,080:     527 |#                   |
 PUT 1,090:      37 |                    |   CALL 1,090:     802 |#                   |
 PUT 1,100:      27 |                    |   CALL 1,100:   8,131 |########            |
 PUT 1,110:      14 |                    |   CALL 1,110:     951 |#                   |
 PUT 1,120:      26 |                    |   CALL 1,120:     409 |                    |
 PUT 1,130:      14 |                    |   CALL 1,130:     479 |                    |
 PUT 1,140:      15 |                    |   CALL 1,140:     837 |#                   |
 PUT 1,150:      23 |                    |   CALL 1,150:   1,755 |##                  |
 PUT 1,160:      34 |                    |   CALL 1,160:   4,690 |#####               |
 PUT 1,170:      14 |                    |   CALL 1,170:     116 |                    |
 PUT 1,180:      28 |                    |   CALL 1,180:     738 |#                   |
 PUT 1,190:      12 |                    |   CALL 1,190:     110 |                    |
 PUT 1,200:      21 |                    |   CALL 1,200:   2,787 |###                 |

      total:  PUTs:   254,564 ; CALLs:   203,504

Observations:

• Big expiry this week too: over 458,000 contracts, which have a maximum shares impact of over 45 million shares. When open interest is so large, the derivatives (options) pricing and positioning drives the underlying's (TSLA) price, not the other way around which is usually the normal form of price discovery.
• Due to the exceptionally sharp transients (gaps) in the price in the last two weeks, both up and down, the open interest is all over the map, and there's no well defined 'maximum pain'. Almost every closing price tomorrow on Friday will be "painful" to some big entity with significant active trading power.
  
• But if I had to guess then I think call option writers would prefer tomorrow's closing price to be below $800, and put option writers would prefer it to be above $700. $750 might be an uneasy line of no combat - but it's not well-defined.
• Should $700 or $800 break decisively then I'd expect the delta hedging positive feedback loop to magnify the move, as options writers are scrambling to catch up with the price.

Nevertheless, all other things equal (which they might not be), I'd expect for today and tomorrow the price to stabilize around some price level and volume to drop from the exceptionally high volume this week - this would drain Implied Volatility out of the 02/07 options and would allow market makers to build/trim their delta hedging TSLA positions to the expected levels. Consolidation of the price would also make rollover of profitable options to later expiries more expensive - another side effect market makers I'm sure don't mind.

Of course any big Tesla specific or macro event that is perceived to be major news to Tesla would dominate price action and would override any options market-making delta hedging concerns.

 

[Dare]

Great interview with legend chip designer Jim Keller.
Talks Tesla and FSD from 1:04:xx.

Recommend!

Great video! That guy is amazing, I could listen to him all day. I really enjoyed his blue collar approach to complicated problems.



Some of my favorites:

“Progress disappoints in the short run and surprises in the long run.”

“I think humans are less complicated...we tend to operate over large numbers of patterns”

“The AI space is changing really fast.”

“Engineering is (essentially) craftsman’s work”

“Imagine 99% of your thought process is protecting your self conception, and 98% of that is wrong. Now you’ve got the math right. How do you think you’re feeling when you get into that one bit that’s useful, and now you’re open and have the ability to do something that’s useful?”

 

[LST]

https://www.boerse-frankfurt.de/aktie/tesla-motors-inc

here from the horses mouth ; )

694.30 right now 10:23 CET > 768 USD... I'll bet on seeing green today

 

[JBRR]

Naval on Twitter

“
10% or less of the cases in China are being detected, 25% outside China.

Really around 50K new cases per day in China, doubling every five days.

Wuhan will peak in a month, rest of China 1-2 months later. Then rest of world.“

 

[AlexS]

Naval on Twitter

“
10% or less of the cases in China are being detected, 25% outside China.

Really around 50K new cases per day in China, doubling every five days.

Wuhan will peak in a month, rest of China 1-2 months later. Then rest of world.“

looks like someone sold out, and want to get back in lower

 

[avoigt]

Germany almost 3% up

 

[ProfTournesol]

Dashboard: Operations Dashboard for ArcGIS

 

[KarenRei]

The only question I have is why that Taiga is not yet growing on your land, planted with mature trees?

Planting trees in the middle of winter in frozen ground may not work as well as you're envisioning

 

[KarenRei]

Everyone looking forward to starting to stare at the EU delivery numbers again next week?

Everyone expects the Netherlands to be way down, of course. Too bad that the most interesting country this quarter, the UK, doesn't have realtime data :Þ Best we'll be able to do is compare February numbers (once they come out at the start of March) to November numbers - although even that will be misleading due to Tesla's superb inventory run-down last quarter.

Iceland has weekly data. Once deliveries start here, I'll see if I can get any of the delivery statistics sites to add it.

 

[HG Wells]

Pre market has swung RED
now -12

 

[Mike Smith]

This is why it's falling. It doesn't matter at all since they sell the cars online, but CNBC will put anything about Tesla that sounds negative on the front page.

Tesla temporarily closes China stores amid coronavirus fears

 

[FrankSG]

This is why it's falling. It doesn't matter at all since they sell the cars online, but CNBC will put anything about Tesla that sounds negative on the front page.

Tesla temporarily closes China stores amid coronavirus fears

Tesla has temporarily closed its stores in mainland China as of Sunday, Feb. 2, according to an online post from a company sales employee on that date.

How does this get reported as news? This is five days old.

Gotta give the shorts/bears/manipulators credit where credit is due. I did not expect they'd be able to pull off the same stunt they did with "unintended acceleration" again.

And man, I feel sorry for all the poor souls who are selling their shares because of all these FUD 'news' articles.

 

[Cohiba]

Pre market has swung RED
now -12

Even went below $700 for a moment. Max pain is at $735 for tomorrow.