Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[pz1975]

What's is a normal volatility level for Tesla?

Over the past year, normal has been 40-60%.

Tesla Inc. (TSLA) Implied Volatility Chart

Seeing that the price seems to have stabilizd but the IV is still relatively higher than normal, I sold some OTM calls and puts expiring this week.

 

[Artful Dodger]

A bit of a mini sell off here just in TSLA - rest of market holding up - can’t see any news.

And the next catalyst is more than 1,5 month away, with the production and delivery report early April. That whole month will be packed with potentially stock moving news. But until then we might as well go in hibernation.

MOD HEL.

 

[Compton]

What's is a normal volatility level for Tesla?

 

[Nocturnal]

So far we haven't seen anything to suggest that production will be down compared to Q4 right? Sure Shanghai is delayed but that's gravy. Do we know if European inventory was decreased by a large amount?

I don’t feel welcome either, but I’m not going anywhere. I’m just lurking around in the shadows learning from the more cerebrally gifted.

Being dumb doesn't stop me from posting.

 

[DrMazeppa]

Quick, sell TSLA, because literally nothing happened!

 

[azaz]

down +10$ in half hour...trying to ignite a big sell off we'll see if buyers swoop in on an otherwise low volume day

 

[Curt Renz]

A bit of a mini sell off here just in TSLA - rest of market holding up - can’t see any news.

Indeed, no news found, and the macro market is relatively calm. The price and volume pattern over the last hour is not that normally seen when long-term institutions are selling. It appears to be due to short selling hedge funds attempting to push the share price down through the $775, $770 and $765 levels in hopes of triggering cascades of stop limits set by weak longs (largely day-traders).

The strong retail and institutional longs have been holding steadily, and that may be frustrating the hedge funds. Hence they institute a raid in hopes that might earn them a few bucks. This is most easily done when trading volume is relatively light, as is the case today.

This attempt may have now bottomed as dip buyers appear to be taking advantage of the situation. Paradoxically, some of those dip buyers could be the hedge funds that initiated this little dance. Volatility is their lifeblood.

The video on manipulation is primarily for the beneifit of TMC visitors who have not previously seen it.

 

[ZeApelido]

bUt tEsLA iS tHe nEw BiTcOiN bUbbLe

If TSLA wants to appreciate to $20,000 then stabilize to $10,000, we can call it BitCon for all I care.

 

[ZeApelido]

Electrek is hilarious. They have no idea why the car is there, but by there logic, any car spotted outside California = winter testing!

To be fair, we humans have sacrificed people including Fred to do winter testing in Canada for centuries.

 

[Nocturnal]

Tesla Might Be Serious About Producing Its Own Batteries

This article has some odd inaccuracies. It states that Panasonic and Tesla have a bad relationship, and that it is "surprising that Tesla has stayed away from improving the efficiency of electric batteries".

One of my surprising takeaways from my Tesla experience is that you can identify real value in a stock (or not) if you really do dive deep into it. Anyone just casually watching the headlines will have a very different picture of the company. TSLA gains aside, this is something valuable for other investments.

 

[ItsNotAboutTheMoney]

Tesla Might Be Serious About Producing Its Own Batteries

This article has some odd inaccuracies. It states that Panasonic and Tesla have a bad relationship, and that it is "surprising that Tesla has stayed away from improving the efficiency of electric batteries".

One of my surprising takeaways from my Tesla experience is that you can identify real value in a stock (or not) if you really do dive deep into it. Anyone just casually watching the headlines will have a very different picture of the company. TSLA gains aside, this is something valuable for other investments.

Any article that refers to cells as batteries should probably be ignored.

 

[rsm287]

A bit of a mini sell off here just in TSLA - rest of market holding up - can’t see any news.

Yeah, they did the same yesterday afternoon too (went from about 782 down to 769 before rising into the close).

 

[ninpb]

Has there been any more birds eye photos of possible Y build up in Fremont? I think analysts are expecting the same slow roll out as the 3 in March but my gut feeling is lessons were learned and is being applied with extreme aggression to eradicate that memory from people's minds.

 

[dl003]

Indeed, no news found, and the macro market is relatively calm. The price and volume pattern over the last hour is not that normally seen when long-term institutions are selling. It appears to be due to short selling hedge funds attempting to push the share price down through the $775, $770 and $765 levels in hopes of triggering cascades of stop limits set by weak longs (largely day-traders).

The strong retail and institutional longs have been holding steadily, and that may be frustrating the hedge funds. Hence they institute a raid in hopes that might earn them a few bucks. This is most easily done when trading volume is relatively light, as is the case today.

This attempt may have now bottomed as dip buyers appear to be taking advantage of the situation. Paradoxically, some of those dip buyers could be the hedge funds that initiated this little dance. Volatility is their lifeblood.

The video on manipulation is primarily for the beneifit of TMC visitors who have not previously seen it.

Love you Curt Renz. Always the rational voice calming the nerve of us insane enough to hold this God forsaken of a stock.

 

[Lessmog]

Has there been any more birds eye photos of possible Y build up in Fremont? I think analysts are expecting the same slow roll out as the 3 in March but my gut feeling is lessons were learned and is being applied with extreme aggression to eradicate that memory from people's minds.

No offense, but I think some here are somewhat wary of birds. Although there are exceptions.

 

[Mimas HQ]

Battery manufacturing plants in Europe as part of Total France, the world's fourth-largest oil and gas company, jointly with PSA and Opel automotive companies, with capacity up to 48 GWh by 2030, Germany and France expected to require € 5 billion in total investment . The project is expected to receive EUR 1.3 billion from the German and French Governments and the European Union. Can Giga Berlin get that much?

 

[Lessmog]

Battery manufacturing plants in Europe as part of Total France, the world's fourth-largest oil and gas company, jointly with PSA and Opel automotive companies, with capacity up to 48 GWh by 2030, Germany and France expected to require € 5 billion in total investment . The project is expected to receive EUR 1.3 billion from the German and French Governments and the European Union. Can Giga Berlin get that much?

The more the merrier.
Do you have any details, links etc?

 

[StealthP3D]

I remember people saying the same thing in November. The SP then went from the 330s to the 440s before the Q4 P&D report, with no "catalysts".

True. I've been investing long enough to know that the best "catalysts" to rising share prices are not known in advance.

 

[Drax7]

down +10$ in half hour...trying to ignite a big sell off we'll see if buyers swoop in on an otherwise low volume day

Charlie munger made some comments about musk and Tesla.
That coincided with the price break.

 

[cs_umd]

One of the big accumulators of Tesla shares last quarter appears to be JP Morgan Chase. Any thoughts regarding this development?

Source: Nasdaq