Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[sundaymorning]

Tesla is the widowmaker:

Tesla Bruises Another Hedge Fund With Bearish GMT Facing Losses

 

[Muaddid]

(…)
This amount claimed in 2020Q1 could be enough to make Tesla net profitable on a 12-mth rolling average basis, and with a profitable final quarter, TSLA would qualify for admission into the S&P 500.

Don't they have to set aside money for Elon's next payday too ?

 

[Nocturnal]

I have it on very good authority that this is all part of Elon's master fraud plan.

1. Build an expensive sports car.
2. Use those funds to build a more affordable car.
3. Use those funds to build a mass market car.
4. Earn billions in stock options.
5. Risk all of that to facilitate the theft of a few million dollars of copper wiring from Freemont.
6. Continue running other high profile companies.
7. Not cash out and live in the Caymans.

TSLAQ!

On a serious note, I took advantage of today's rise to deleverage out of my margin and have some cash on hand. If we get a dip between now and Q1 I'll probably buy back double what I sold out of my trading shares. If it keeps going up I'll just start shopping for those high waist pants that retirees like to wear.

 

[dc_h]

Possible. Normally Tesla uses loans for specific construction projects, however.

But, they could have had a chance of strategy since equity is so lucrative right now.

Tesla’s cost of capital declined by 75% since last summer. This is what the shorts wanted to avoid. Building GF5 for 25 cents on the dollar is amazing.

 

[The Accountant]

I'm wondering whether the new disclosures about the valuation allowance have changed @The Accountant's estimates about when they are going to make use of it?

Also, in Q4 it grew to $1.956b ...

I was saving this post for quieter times...but since you asked:
The annual 10K comment on the Deferred Tax Valuation Allowance has been consistent for many years....except for this year.
For the first time, Telsa has not stated that "it is more likely than not that the Tax Asset will not be realized".
This change in wording, I believe, means that a partial or full release of the valuation allowance to income is coming soon.
My guess: No later than Q3 2020; however, if Q1 is significantly profitable, they may take it then.
The Valuation Reserve now sits at $1,956M

2014 10K.… it is more likely than not that our U.S. deferred tax assets will not be realized
2015 10K …. it is more likely than not that the net deferred tax assets will not be realized
2016 10K ….it is more likely than not that its net deferred tax assets will not be realized
2017 10K…. it is more likely than not that the U.S. deferred tax assets will not be realized
2018 10K…. it is more likely than not that the U.S. deferred tax assets will not be realized

2019 10K…. We continue to monitor the realizability of the U.S. deferred tax assets taking into account multiple factors, including the results of operations and magnitude of excess tax deductions for stock-based compensation. We intend to continue maintaining a full valuation allowance on our U.S. deferred tax assets until there is sufficient evidence to support the reversal of all or some portion of these allowances. Release of all, or a portion, of the valuation allowance would result in the recognition of certain deferred tax assets and a decrease to income tax expense for the period the release is recorded.

 

[Pezpunk]

I was saving this post for quieter times...but since you asked:
The annual 10K comment on the Deferred Tax Valuation Allowance has been consistent for many years....except for this year.
For the first time, Telsa has not stated that "it is more likely than not that the Tax Asset will not be realized".
This change in wording, I believe, means that a partial or full release of the valuation allowance to income is coming soon.
My guess: No later than Q3 2020; however, if Q1 is significantly profitable, they may take it then.
The Valuation Reserve now sits at $1,956m

2014 10K.… it is more likely than not that our U.S. deferred tax assets will not be realized
2015 10K …. it is more likely than not that the net deferred tax assets will not be realized
2016 10K ….it is more likely than not that its net deferred tax assets will not be realized
2017 10K…. it is more likely than not that the U.S. deferred tax assets will not be realized
2018 10K…. it is more likely than not that the U.S. deferred tax assets will not be realized

2019 10K…. We continue to monitor the realizability of the U.S. deferred tax assets taking into account multiple factors, including the results of operations and magnitude of excess tax deductions for stock-based compensation. We intend to continue maintaining a full valuation allowance on our U.S. deferred tax assets until there is sufficient evidence to support the reversal of all or some portion of these allowances. Release of all, or a portion, of the valuation allowance would result in the recognition of certain deferred tax assets and a decrease to income tax expense for the period the release is recorded.

shorts are so so so so so screwed.

It's nice of Tesla to give them such a plain warning, but they probably knew it would be ignored.

 

[ABCTG]

Tesla is the widowmaker:

Tesla Bruises Another Hedge Fund With Bearish GMT Facing Losses

Boohoo for them.

They bet against the transition to sustainable energy.

I own TSLA stock, so I made more money than a hedge fund!

Has to be at least one dollar more..

 

[ninpb]

Delivery update on my Model X - this Saturday. Uhhh I need to move some money! Was not expecting delivery this soon lol.

Anybody check ev-cpo.com to guage deliveries? In US December new S and X were probably under 10 and 30. Zero 3s. As of today is 63 S and 130 X. 3s in the 30s.

 

[Cherry Wine]

Anybody check ev-cpo.com to guage deliveries? In US December new S and X were probably under 10 and 30. Zero 3s. As of today is 63 S and 130 X. 3s in the 30s.

Well I ordered a whopping 10 days ago, just FYI. Not that I'm complaining.

 

[Nocturnal]

shorts are so so so so so screwed.

It's nice of Tesla to give them such a plain warning, but they probably knew it would be ignored.

Boohoo for them.

They bet against the transition to sustainable energy.

I own TSLA stock, so I made more money than a hedge fund!

Has to be at least one dollar more..View attachment 510832

Even unemployed people with no investments earned more money than the shorts this year.

 

[mejojo]

Embarrassing time to have a headline like that...
View attachment 510789

 

[vikings123]

Just a lurker here and I appreciate all the insights you guys provide, hoping to be more active going forward. I thought this Barron’s article was funny. Apparently it’s a mode S issue now haha

 

[Fact Checking]

This change in wording, I believe, means that a partial or full release of the valuation allowance to income is coming soon.
My guess: No later than Q3 2020; however, if Q1 is significantly profitable, they may take it then.

I'm wondering, is the GAAP profit from the release of the valuation allowance imputed into the determination of whether they are "more likely than not" going to be profitable in 2020?

Because with $1,956m in extra profits it would be rather hard to not be profitable in 2020, right?

 

[ggies07]

This should be played at this annual shareholder meeting coming up as Elon enters the room. Cheeky, but would be Elon.

 

[Highway2Heel]

ETF suppression onslaught to start soon. Let’s see some more strength staying above $800.

If we do....tomorrow? Holy smokes...

 

[mejojo]

Boohoo for them.

They bet against the transition to sustainable energy.

I own TSLA stock, so I made more money than a hedge fund!

Has to be at least one dollar more..View attachment 510832

 

[mejojo]

ETF suppression onslaught to start soon. Let’s see some more strength staying above $800.

If we do....tomorrow? Holy smokes...

Don't forget tomorrow is market makers' playground......

 

[ggr]

I agree with you. My take away from the call was that they didn't need to raise money and they were self funding. Whether or not there were underlying tones that he doesn't want greedy bankers trying to get a cut of that money doing a capital raise is up for debate.

My positive takeaway is that even if at the time Elon was against raising money at the time, with the higher stock price and ideas on how they can use more money, Elon was able to change his mind and decide that a capital raise makes sense now. I'm always happy if people reevaluate their previous decisions and decide if it is the right call or not, versus just being stubborn and set in their ways. Elon doesn't mind course corrections and the potential blowback from it if he thinks it is the right thing to do.

Without meaning to extend the argument, the question Elon answered (at a much lower stock price) was "Does it make sense to do a capital raise to retire debt". That was what he said no to. He's very literal. And in any case the situation has changed. So, let's not bother about this any more.

 

[adiggs]

Delivery update on my Model X - this Saturday. Uhhh I need to move some money! Was not expecting delivery this soon lol.

You're going to love it. IMHO - best overall car there is. To complete the ensemble, be sure and get a utility trailer so it can double as your faux pickup truck.

 

[hoang51]

Don't forget tomorrow is market makers' playground......

Max pain is at $750 as of this morning. Will probably change by the end of today. If they try to drop the stock tomorrow, I'll load up some more under $800.