From CNBC:
Loup Ventures' Gene Munster and Roth Capital's Craig Irwin debate Tesla's bear and bull cases
Loup Ventures' Gene Munster and Roth Capital's Craig Irwin debate Tesla's bear and bull cases
-
Want to remove ads? Register an account and login to see fewer ads, and become a Supporting Member to remove almost all ads.
Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
I'm surprised that Renault is having such troubles now, because it's one of the best performing automakers in terms of CO2 (source), idem for its Nissan partner.
This is sad because it seems that companies who made the best efforts to electrify their lineup (Nissan + Renault) are paying higher cost than laggards (like PSA + FCA).
Other EU manufacturers like BMW and Daimler are in pretty bad position too, although they may have bigger margins for the moment. Daimler has to work the hardest (cf. their recent dividend cut, and the lack of battery supply for the EQC) but they at least realize that they will have to fully switch to BEV at some point. BMW now say they want to offer all kind of vehicles for decades: ICE, hybrids, etc.
VW appears to really try to catch up with Tesla, with the right strategy. IMO, they have the best chances to survive the upcoming recession.
Japan: Except Toyota, all manufacturers might face big troubles in the next few years. Toyota won't have to pay big fines soon, but their lack of commitment (to say the least) is astonishing. They seem to wait for other manufactures to go bankrupt before deciding to go electric, at the risk of letting Tesla taking an unsurpassed lead.
Volvo will certainly be saved by the Geely merger.
We'll know the fate of GM and Ford when they'll reveal their EV trucks, and when Cybertrucks will be running the streets. Ford seems to be working on a standard F-150-like truck but they'll probably disappoint in terms of features, range and price (like the Mach E vs Mode Y). GM is just having fun with their PR team, dreaming about a comeback of the Hummer brand. They also believe their Cruise tech will save them…
This is my ill-informed musings. Feel free to correct me or share your thoughts.
I'm looking at the chart right now and I don't see anything out of the ordinary happening...?Interesting price action in pre-market. I guess this is not just max pain. I thought the events yesterday would provide a little stability, plus the rumors on demand in China.
Maybe I should always do the opposite trade of what I expect to happen
Edit- removed inadvertently stacked quote my big fat fingers quoted by themselves that I never meant to quote. When it comes to those stinking way-too-close-together rating icons on the right and my big fat fingers... I could scream.
Last edited:
So with the offering now priced at $767 does that mean we should see the price run towards that today? Or does that just mean that they get to buy shares at a significant discount?
It is a fair guess that many legacy car companies will fail in the transition to BEV. Some will survive. It is an even fairer guess that the vast majority of BEV startups will fail. (I consider Tesla, BYD, etc. in this category too.) Tesla is in the best position due to its processes. Rivian has a chance because they have Amazon's financial support and large order of delivery vans. Bezos is one of the greatest entrepreneurs of our time. His record of success against Musk is not great. But Blue Origin in the space business is happily chugging along without being able to compete with Spacex. The same thing might happen with Rivian. I doubt that Lucid, Faraday will make it. The vast majority of the several hundreds of Chinese companies will fail. And 2-3 might survive.And Nissan's former CEO also warned that the company could go bankrupt in the next 2 years:
But it's Tesla's corporate debt that is rated by both Moody's and S&P as "junk debt" (B3/B-), while Nissan's corporate debt is rated as "investment grade" NINE full notches higher at A3/A-:
Hello Moody's and S&P credit rating staff, ... tap, tap ... is this thing on?
The Accountant
Active Member
I see your logic but the way warranty expense accrual works is that the entire estimated lifetime warranty cost for a vehicle (sloar panel, etc) is recorded at the time of sale. The $152m of warranty expense in Q4 only relates to vehicles, energy products sold in Q4.
Internally, Tsla does the analysis you are referring to...so that they can determine if their estimates are reasonable. We're unalble to do this analysis as we don't have enough detail in the 10K.
Neither guy is very good at stating their case. The poor host were making their points for them. That was tough to watch haha
About 2 weeks ago I was wondering who were the big whales that triggered the rally from mid-December:
This post by FC mentions Capital World Investors filed a 13F about crossing the 5% threshold:
So I went and looked if they were the triggering whale, but it seems they have only increased by a relatively small amount, so they probably have been slowly gathering their shares over time and just happened to cross the threshold recently.
On the other hand, I do see some big moves in the table at the link:
This post by FC mentions Capital World Investors filed a 13F about crossing the 5% threshold:
So I went and looked if they were the triggering whale, but it seems they have only increased by a relatively small amount, so they probably have been slowly gathering their shares over time and just happened to cross the threshold recently.
On the other hand, I do see some big moves in the table at the link:
- Susquehanna Securities (+3.1 million shares),
- Royal Bank OF Canada (+2.8 million shares) and
- UBS Group AG (+2.1 million shares)
seems to be the biggest changes.
Swampgator
Active Member
humbaba
sleeping until $7000
Doesn't that cap the price at $767? This is out of my area, but that seemed to me to cap how much Tesla could make. That is, they could be bought for less than $767, and the only way I can think that would be rational is if the market price went lower.
Which could explain the downward pressure if interested parties wanted to cut how much money Tesla actually obtained from the capital raise.
But I really have no idea how this works. Happy to be corrected as I'm sure I've misunderstood something.
Agreed! I was surprised that the CNBC host was making some better points. I think Gene Munster is just not very good at making an argument. Craig Irwin doesn't even seem to believe his own thesis (maybe he doesn't).
Craig says that TSLA has no structural or strategic advantages.
Reminds me of Bob Lutz and the things he used to say.....which didn't age well!
Krugerrand
Meow
So, that’s one of the best run-on sentences I’ve read in a while that sounds super intellectual, but registered as blah, blah, blah.
Hmm, data from CNN seem very different - am I missing something?
Edit: Never mind, they seem to use different names for some funds and firms, otherwise they are actually close.
Last edited:
I think the real news is Renaissance Technologies added 3.26 million shares. Probably that's the main reason why the stock went up yesterday. Their Medallion fund does quantitative trading, which has a long term track record of ~70% gain per year before fees. Their larger fund runs like a normal fund.
We should stop legitimizing what Craig Irwin says. He, and many others, are simply the remnant of an era on Wall Street when there was still a lot of slack in term of qualification and merits. I like how Elon gave them the middle finger. He straight up told them no cap raise, then turn around and did a cap raise and shorts got crushed. Their short sighted orientation is so toxic.
Similar threads
- Locked
- Locked
- Locked
