Must have left it to the intern today. Everyone else took a long weekend.Looks like they just lost all because they could not get the last 4 cents manipulated!
Hilarious
(You hade one job...)
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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
(You hade one job...)
It's what happens when IV goes way up which invites all the gamblers in. I might not know what I am saying but I guess as IV decreases and the option contracts decreases, MM may give less at where the stock closes Friday night.
Thinking through the areas that Tesla has a strong advantage in terms of experience and engineering talent, I remember that EM stated at one point a few years ago that Tesla makes the world's best inverters. Witnessing the drive-train efficiency advantage that Tesla has in practice seems to indicate that they may indeed make a very efficient inverter.
Current practice for Tesla Solar seems to be that they are using readily available commercial solar PV inverters. For now, it seems to have made sense to continue that trend. In the spirit of vertical integration, and as the solar sales and Solar Roof installations scale, it may make sense to:
1. Integrate a solar inverter into the Powerwall
2. Design and produce a solar PV inverter for Solar Roof
3. Design and produce integrated panel/microinverter PV modules
or some combination of the above.
I've not heard much discussion on this and only see some fairly old articles exploring the possibilities. What does the hivemind here think?
Current practice for Tesla Solar seems to be that they are using readily available commercial solar PV inverters. For now, it seems to have made sense to continue that trend. In the spirit of vertical integration, and as the solar sales and Solar Roof installations scale, it may make sense to:
1. Integrate a solar inverter into the Powerwall
2. Design and produce a solar PV inverter for Solar Roof
3. Design and produce integrated panel/microinverter PV modules
or some combination of the above.
I've not heard much discussion on this and only see some fairly old articles exploring the possibilities. What does the hivemind here think?
Moreover Tesla has recently become the best and cheapest car body maker as well, so legacy makers would have no chance even with the skate board. It would probably make sense to sell skateboard for special purpose vehicles only.
johnnybgood888
Member
Does anyone know where I can find historical Friday Max Pain data? I'd like to plot it against the historical Friday closing prices and see how closely they correlate for the past few years, just feels like Max Pain has had an outsized influence safe for the times when the share prices runs up/down due to news or earnings.
p.s. Would be happy to share with the community once I do that!
Everybody’s a winner!
Susquehanna each week gets to fleece the overly optimistic and greedy buyers of far OTM short term calls.
The media gets more clickbait on the gyrations of TSLA SP.
Tesla gets $2.3 billion at a lofty valuation.
Senior managers at the SEC issue a few more subpoenas, and head off to their weekend homes on Virginia Beach, confident they are regulating the market.
And us longs? At the end of each week, the SP is about $40 higher than at the end of the previous week. I’ll take that porridge, thank you sir. Can I have more, please?
You are definitely new here
While I cannot disagree, in this case the Russian and the majority of Germany's interests are aligned - and as such this report could in my opinion also have come from a German outlet.
On that note, while TMC often ridicule journalists here is an RT one who showed some real loyalty to her trade:
Fact Checking
Well-Known Member
They were doing two things here:
- One-sided presentation, they intentionally omitted the following key facts:
- That Tesla is planting 3x the area in new forests,
- that the tree plantation posed a significant wildfire risk, just in 2018 there were catastrophic wildfires affecting Brandenburg, in similar monoculture pine forests:
- That there's a state policy in Brandenburg that requires pine forests to be replaced with more natural, mixed forests
- In Germany the cutting down of trees is inflammatory - and the report went to great lengths showing it all from all angles.
Btw., another less known area of influence where the Russians are operating is through the German far-right Afd, which, as it happens, is also virulently anti-EV and some of their members already demonstrated against Giga Berlin.
RT's German language programming in particular is often regurgitating Afd talking points, trying to fake the role of "independent" media free of the leftist and liberal influence that all of the German media is supposedly controlled by. It's not NRA-TV style pure agitprop that is easy to identify, it's a highly efficient operation masked as professional reporting, which poisons 95% accurate reporting with 5% disinformation that does the real intended damage. Fox News on steroids.
I.e. they are using subtle and sometimes not so subtle "divide and conquer" tactics - a bit like how the Russians helped amplify the Leave campaign in the UK, which helped Boris Johnson hand a great victory to Mother Russia.
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It's almost like the money class sets all the rules in order to block out competition. Hmmm.
Off Shore
Off Topic Member
...as does most of Central America (Nicaragua included). Ojalá que the 0% import duty migrates South!
SW2Fiddler
We Are Cognitive Dissidents
lol there we go, $800.0x literally. Yeah, totally free and fair market, 100% pure capitalism and fresh smells.
No Manipulation?
Kindly refer to my new Catvatar
<-- <-- <--
re: selling skateboards... I don't know, the Surfboard was pretty sweet...
Assessing the Q1 Inventory Build:
As we know, Q4 benefited from an exceptional inventory reduction. Much of this comes from shipping cars that were built in the previous quarter (inventory), something not possible in Q1 due to Q1 delivering straight out of the factory up to the final day of Q4.
Morning Cara left today, and we see above that there seems to be little change overall in the rate of RO-RO shipping - a roughly 10 day lag.
On top of RO-RO ships, there's also cars shipped to smaller markets via containers. Container shipping seems to be going quite apace this quarter, and I expect it to be similar to or higher than Q4; indeed, I'd expect an increasing fraction of total shipping to be expected to be container shipping over time, as Tesla continues adding smaller, disjoint markets to its delivery lists.
Additionally, we have to consider the possibility of some degree of US inventory rebuild at the start of the quarter. A number of orders from Q4 were unable to be delivered in time, and many stores were depleted of show and test-drive inventory. You'll note a rather significant lag between the first and second ships of the year, which could be indicative of this.
Lastly, we have to estimate production rates. Existing production trends (all vehicles combined):
As a median case, I'll assume production of 111,8k (8,6k/wk) at Fremont, exclusive of MY.
We have a 10-day lag for this quarter, caused by a mix of a lack of pre-built overseas inventory, and the possible need for a domestic rebuild. We should also account for any difference between container-shipping rates and RO-RO rates; I'll assume that this offsets the number by about 10%, so in determining the inventory build we need to account for the equivalent of 9 days of production. At 8,6k/wk production, we end up with an inventory build of 11k as a result of the differences between the start of Q4 and the start of Q1.
There can also be an inventory change as a result in differences at the end of the quarter. This is impossible to realistically assess yet. I will simply note that Q4 did an exceptional job of running down available inventory at the end of the quarter (see, for example, the EU-EVs charts of start-of-quarter deliveries and note how low Q1 is), and I'd add a couple thousand vehicles to the total inventory build. Say, an extra 2k, to 13k.
Putting this together with the production rate, we end up with Fremont deliveries of 98,800, exclusive of Model Y.
Another Approach: Comparing Actual Inventory Changes
A much simpler approach can be to simply look at: how much did deliveries actually exceed production last quarter? Turning to the Q4 deliveries report:
Total 104,891 112,000
This yields a net difference of 7,1k. If Q1 were to roughly undo this specific change, this would yield deliveries of 104,7k.
There's a fairly large disparity between these two numbers. Going with an average between the two, we get an estimated deliveries from Fremont (excluding Model Y) of 101,8k.
Assessing Shanghai Production And Deliveries
As was seen from the January production numbers...
Tesla produced 2625 cars at GF3 from 1 Jan to the Lunar New Year shutdown on 25 Jan, or a sustained average of ~800 per week. Normally one would expect a significant scaleup over the course of a quarter. However, whole production resumed on 10 Feb, but is lagged by quarantines of non-local workers (up to 14 days) and probably supplier limits as well. I will assume that production will average 500/wk for the two weeks after reopening in February, then 1000 for the final week, for a total of 2k cars for February. If we assume March averages, say, a 1,5k/wk, that's 6,6k for the month. Total for Q1 would thus be 11,2k.
This is production, not deliveries. I will assume that China will not see a net inventory change, and thus production will approximately equal deliveries.
Putting It Together
Fremont deliveries, exclusive of MY: 101,8k
Giga Shanghai deliveries: 11,2k
Model Y deliveries: 4k (completely random guess)
Total deliveries: 117k
Difference vs. Q4 (112k): +5k.
There's huge error bars on this, of course; take it with a massive grain of salt.
As we know, Q4 benefited from an exceptional inventory reduction. Much of this comes from shipping cars that were built in the previous quarter (inventory), something not possible in Q1 due to Q1 delivering straight out of the factory up to the final day of Q4.
Morning Cara left today, and we see above that there seems to be little change overall in the rate of RO-RO shipping - a roughly 10 day lag.
On top of RO-RO ships, there's also cars shipped to smaller markets via containers. Container shipping seems to be going quite apace this quarter, and I expect it to be similar to or higher than Q4; indeed, I'd expect an increasing fraction of total shipping to be expected to be container shipping over time, as Tesla continues adding smaller, disjoint markets to its delivery lists.
Additionally, we have to consider the possibility of some degree of US inventory rebuild at the start of the quarter. A number of orders from Q4 were unable to be delivered in time, and many stores were depleted of show and test-drive inventory. You'll note a rather significant lag between the first and second ships of the year, which could be indicative of this.
Lastly, we have to estimate production rates. Existing production trends (all vehicles combined):
- Q1: 77,1k (5,9k/wk)
- Q2: 87,0k (6,7k/wk)
- Q3: 96,2k (7,4k/wk)
- Q4: 104,9k (8,1k/wk)
As a median case, I'll assume production of 111,8k (8,6k/wk) at Fremont, exclusive of MY.
We have a 10-day lag for this quarter, caused by a mix of a lack of pre-built overseas inventory, and the possible need for a domestic rebuild. We should also account for any difference between container-shipping rates and RO-RO rates; I'll assume that this offsets the number by about 10%, so in determining the inventory build we need to account for the equivalent of 9 days of production. At 8,6k/wk production, we end up with an inventory build of 11k as a result of the differences between the start of Q4 and the start of Q1.
There can also be an inventory change as a result in differences at the end of the quarter. This is impossible to realistically assess yet. I will simply note that Q4 did an exceptional job of running down available inventory at the end of the quarter (see, for example, the EU-EVs charts of start-of-quarter deliveries and note how low Q1 is), and I'd add a couple thousand vehicles to the total inventory build. Say, an extra 2k, to 13k.
Putting this together with the production rate, we end up with Fremont deliveries of 98,800, exclusive of Model Y.
Another Approach: Comparing Actual Inventory Changes
A much simpler approach can be to simply look at: how much did deliveries actually exceed production last quarter? Turning to the Q4 deliveries report:
Total 104,891 112,000
This yields a net difference of 7,1k. If Q1 were to roughly undo this specific change, this would yield deliveries of 104,7k.
There's a fairly large disparity between these two numbers. Going with an average between the two, we get an estimated deliveries from Fremont (excluding Model Y) of 101,8k.
Assessing Shanghai Production And Deliveries
As was seen from the January production numbers...
Tesla produced 2625 cars at GF3 from 1 Jan to the Lunar New Year shutdown on 25 Jan, or a sustained average of ~800 per week. Normally one would expect a significant scaleup over the course of a quarter. However, whole production resumed on 10 Feb, but is lagged by quarantines of non-local workers (up to 14 days) and probably supplier limits as well. I will assume that production will average 500/wk for the two weeks after reopening in February, then 1000 for the final week, for a total of 2k cars for February. If we assume March averages, say, a 1,5k/wk, that's 6,6k for the month. Total for Q1 would thus be 11,2k.
This is production, not deliveries. I will assume that China will not see a net inventory change, and thus production will approximately equal deliveries.
Putting It Together
Fremont deliveries, exclusive of MY: 101,8k
Giga Shanghai deliveries: 11,2k
Model Y deliveries: 4k (completely random guess)
Total deliveries: 117k
Difference vs. Q4 (112k): +5k.
There's huge error bars on this, of course; take it with a massive grain of salt.
I read cap raise as
1. Battery tech is getting close to ready and they're willing to throw down some $$ to build up capacity faster then originally planned
2. Q1 is shaping up pretty poor so now is the time to do it
#2 might or might not be there, could simply be that current price is attractive enough to do it. But personally I'm keeping a bit of dry powder to catch any Q1 shenanigans to then capitalize on the investor day etc.
1. Battery tech is getting close to ready and they're willing to throw down some $$ to build up capacity faster then originally planned
2. Q1 is shaping up pretty poor so now is the time to do it
#2 might or might not be there, could simply be that current price is attractive enough to do it. But personally I'm keeping a bit of dry powder to catch any Q1 shenanigans to then capitalize on the investor day etc.
This reminds me of a rumor posted a year ago by venerable member (who rated your post) that Tesla was going to provide the drivetrain for a pickup from one of the U.S big 3.
Ahem, whatever happened to that?
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