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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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BTW, with this whole debate regarding the secondary offering.

Why now? Maybe ... and yes I'm guessing here.

Tesla realizes the demand for cyber truck is greater than expected .... wants to get it off the ground faster than originally planned. In addition we know that Model Y is ahead of the original timeline. Tesla needs somewhere to make the cyber truck ... TX perhaps ??? (just a little guess) .... ok TX it is .. how do we fund? well a secondary offering would get it off the ground very quickly.

Just a thought ...

Cheers to the longs
Maybe they had the first prototype battery cell line working and need money to replicate it?
 
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Logging progress at Giga Berlin site. Source: Emil Senkel on Twitter

Working around the clock; that’s what I like to see.
 
Anecdotal data point: Tesla insurance

Tossed another coin to my witcher last night and purchased a Tesla insurance policy for our Model X. The price was $20/mo less than the quote I received from my existing insurance agent, despite the latter quote pricing in loyalty, multi-car, and multi-line discounts. I'll lose out on the savings by losing the multi-car discount on our other vehicle, but I'd much rather kick the policy premium to Tesla than State Farm.

Since I haven't seen any quotes for Model X coverage elsewhere I thought people may be interested to know the premium cost (without going into too many details): ~$120/mo.

EDIT: Oh, I also forgot to add that the comp/collision deductibles for the Tesla policy are $100/$100 as opposed to $500/$500 as quoted from State Farm. So even better than a straight apples-to-apples comparison.
 
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Indeed, my cursory survey of trading in TSLA options expiring today suggests that $800 currently appears to be the most profitable target for many of the large option writers who might try to manipulate the share price. That could change during the final hour of the session.

Published MaxPain figures have been way off base during the TSLA run-up in recent months, and can be disregarded.

So, if I understand correctly, if we want the bears to feel max pain, which of course we do :p, we should hope for a closing price above 800?
 
Woodworks at GF4


Btw., "RT" is a Russian outlet, and this report is trying to inflame public opinion by not mentioning key facts, such as that Tesla is planting 3x as many trees, or the wildfire risk of these dense, monoculture pine forests.

The Russian anti-EV disinformation campaign is in full swing in Germany too.
 
Some folks at the office were talking Tesla today and know "I'm that Tesla guy" and the topic of "Yeah, but for most folks, Tesla's are just too expensive right now... when Model 3 prices are more in-line with similar ICE... blah blah..."

While I don't disagree that the average person who has a hard budget of $20k is going to be able to make a stretch person for a Model 3, I pointed out that, thanks to Apple, "we" as customers have now been re-calibrated to see a $1000 smart phone as the going rate for "current/latest" technology. We were accustomed to getting crappy smartphones for $100-200 (often subsidized by the carriers...), $200-300 for the first iPhones, but then the iPhone 7 came out and we saw $650-800. Now we see $1200, roll our eyes, and plunk down the cash because Apple has re-calibrated our view of this thing in our pocket from "nice to have" to "I spend so much time using this product that they literally invented the technology to help me stop using it so much," ergo, many folks are fine with the massive price increase.

Tesla has re-calibrated us similarly to the cost of their product because of the value proposition - this isn't an ICE with batteries, it's truly a different class of product altogether.

Dare I say it on this Valentine's day: It's LOVE!
(apologies to Subaru)
 
GM is starting to feel a supply chain squeeze due to coronavirus. (in addition to outright production stoppages in Hubei)

Coronavirus pinching car-industry supply chains

The outbreak has halted assembly lines at several car plants in China, and forecasters at LMC Automotive expect the outbreak to depress Chinese auto production by around 1.2 million cars this quarter. Last year, GM produced nearly 640,000 cars -- nearly 40% of its Chinese production -- in Hubei province, the origin of the outbreak where most of the infections have been diagnosed, LMC Automotive said.

The factory in Flint is one of GM's largest U.S. factories, employing about 5,000 workers. The plant would likely run out of decals and vents first, both of which can be installed after a near-finished truck rolls off the assembly line, Mr. Fabbro said. But longer delays could impact more critical components, he said.

"This is going to be a day-by-day monitoring thing," he said. "If it goes six weeks, then we all have bigger problems."

GM has arranged for parts to be flown by chartered jet from China when parts are available, he said. A GM spokesman declined to comment.

GM derives the majority of its global profit from sales of its large pickup-truck and SUV models built in North America. The pickups are built at the Flint factory, along with a plant in Fort Wayne, Ind., and another in Silao, Mexico. The Arlington plant makes all of GM's large SUVs.

The company already is trying to replenish truck stocks after a 40-day strike last fall shut down production across its U.S. factories.
 
Some folks at the office were talking Tesla today and know "I'm that Tesla guy" and the topic of "Yeah, but for most folks, Tesla's are just too expensive right now... when Model 3 prices are more in-line with similar ICE... blah blah..."

While I don't disagree that the average person who has a hard budget of $20k is going to be able to make a stretch person for a Model 3, I pointed out that, thanks to Apple, "we" as customers have now been re-calibrated to see a $1000 smart phone as the going rate for "current/latest" technology. We were accustomed to getting crappy smartphones for $100-200 (often subsidized by the carriers...), $200-300 for the first iPhones, but then the iPhone 7 came out and we saw $650-800. Now we see $1200, roll our eyes, and plunk down the cash because Apple has re-calibrated our view of this thing in our pocket from "nice to have" to "I spend so much time using this product that they literally invented the technology to help me stop using it so much," ergo, many folks are fine with the massive price increase.

Tesla has re-calibrated us similarly to the cost of their product because of the value proposition - this isn't an ICE with batteries, it's truly a different class of product altogether.

Dare I say it on this Valentine's day: It's LOVE!
(apologies to Subaru)
This does emphasize the failing to come close to that low-end market for EV's in general. TSLA's the closest, but there is an enormous addressable market if any auto maker can get even a semi-viable vehicle into that $25K range.
 
Some folks at the office were talking Tesla today and know "I'm that Tesla guy" and the topic of "Yeah, but for most folks, Tesla's are just too expensive right now... when Model 3 prices are more in-line with similar ICE... blah blah..."

While I don't disagree that the average person who has a hard budget of $20k is going to be able to make a stretch person for a Model 3,
That attitude is silly because a model 3 lines up very well against 3 series BMWs in terms of price and features. "too expensive" is just a lazy dodge so they don't have to think.
 
Related to KarenRei's strategies about selling on the way up and buying on the way down, I'd like to do that with a sold put. I've sold puts before when the stock price was lower. I've got about $30k, which worked to sell 1 put when the stock was $300....I can't do that now, I can't cover the cost of a $600 put if exercised.

Seems like selling puts as a way to set a stock buy price isn't an option (no pun intended) with the stock at the price it's at and my budget. I've heard here about some places letting you buy fractions of a share. Is there an equivalent alternative to buy/sell fractions of a put/call?
 
My hunch is that Tesla is raising the money to build a skateboard factory and will announce a deal at battery investor day. I don't see how other automakers can compete by building their own skateboard. They will instead buy it and innovate on top of it. Currently no one cares about the skateboard of existing cars, they care about the brand, looks, and features. That will continue with EVs, with range and performance being new variables. If you can buy a skateboard and get close to Tesla's range and perf, why spend billions to develop one?

To me, the parallels to EVs and the computer industry are too close to ignore.

Devils advocate, assume you are right.

Where do the CPU, the software, the sensor-suite, the non-skateboard-CPU-interacting components fit into this scenario? Buying the skateboard is buying just a fifth (say) of the Tesla integrated package.

Without at least the CPU and the software, you still don’t get Tesla efficiency. To get Tesla range you now need to match mass and drag, good luck. Now that you have the CPU, you want non-skateboard components that talk to it - who will supply those at scale? Do Tesla supply software source code or compiled only. The former is a security risk, the latter makes Tesla responsible for updates - both unattractive.

Splitting out the skateboard not so simple as it seems, imho.