Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[SoGA Fan Club]

Tesla should consider making a lower range 280 mile S for livery use. By saving batteries they can make more, max out the line. The livery S would be about $5000 less or more. It would sell overseas well and with the efficiency gains might be able to be done with a 60 kWh battery. It’s all about maximizing profit as well as spreading sustainable transportation.

So fuuny you posted that becuase I literally just had the same thought and came to post it.

There are tons of people out there that don't need 351 or 390 miles of range. I'm sure Tesla has done plenty of market research, and know much more about it than we do, but I would think that offering a lesser range, less features model of both cars (no premium sound, air suspension, hepa filter, etc) would bring the price down by $10 to 15k and put it in the price range of a ton of buyers that want a larger vehicle, but don't want to spend $75k and up.

And as far as osbornimg model 3 and Y sales, I just think these are 2 separate markets and having a car in the $60 to $65k range would be a nice compliment to the current lineup.

And to keep things simple, I'd only offer the lower models in one config, sort of like the long range plus is now. Wheels, color, seat config (in the X), etc, would be the only options.

This almost HAS to be in the works. Why else would they have a Long Range Plus model that's the ONLY model? What does Long Range MEAN? What is that in comparison to? Same with the new "Plus" they added. Why do you need to say long range if there's no standard range? Why do you need to say plus, if there's no non-plus.

Inquiring minds want to know!

 

[Cirrus MS100D]

As I sit here on an unusually sunny PA weekend watching our small solar PV system feed our Powerwalls, I wonder how much money Tesla makes on them now? They haven’t appeared to change (at least, not outwardly from a customer perspective) in many years and the price even increased during this time.

Seeing the announcement about the new LR+ Model S/X makes me think either they’re still using cheap/commodity batteries (that have gotten cheaper) or the newer battery technology (that allows them to use fewer cells) while keeping the price the same.

Must be some pretty nice margins on Powerwall 2 these days.

While they have virtually no competition, I wonder if they’ll be due for an upgrade at some point soon?

 

[KarenRei]

During a long, windy, rainy and cold weekend under the present persistent storms, may I present an alternative use for forestry and agri byproducts? Our Technology — Phoenix Biopower
They are not at full scale yet, so not an option for Brandenburg, but maybe some of the coming projects.

In an efficient process, biomatter is burned at high temp and steam pressure, driving a gas turbine generator (and heating the town from condensing the steam after, for re-use) and additionally allows for extraction of carbon from the exhaust to sequester into other uses of coal.

Beats me how it works exactly. But it looks tempting.

Only skimmed over your link, but it sounds like they're making wood gas and burning that.

Wood gas - Wikipedia

If your goal is to minimize the carbon emissions, you end up with process more like charcoal production, with the gas having a maximal H2 fraction and minimal CO fraction, leaving you with biochar (which can be used to improve soil aeration and mineral retention). Yields less energy, though. On the other end, you can tune it for a higher energy burn, at the cost of more CO2 emissions. Either way, you burn a cleaner product than simple wood incineration (although, as a caution, wood gas is quite toxic until you burn it; carbon monoxide is always a major component).

If you really want to max out the efficiency, you can burn wood gas in a combined-cycle power plant at upwards of 60% efficiency (must be reduced for how much energy you lose in the gassification process)

Wood gas is also related to syngas, and can be used for production of other hydrocarbon products. Carbon monoxide is quite stable at atmospheric temperature, but highly reactive at elevated temperatures.

 

[Foghat]

Just first page search engine news alone:

Elon drills first ever transportation tunnel in Vegas.
Elon increases record epa range of Model S.
Elon about to launch more record breaking Starlink satellites, 50th landing of booster, another milestone.
Elon going to break the status quo with first Amercian crew mission since 2011.
Elon patent on innovative grid management systems.


Man, it’s hard not to imagine this guy not getting national treasure status soon.

To all the haters, we all benefit from this big time, maybe worry about things that are hurting the world as opposed to helping it economically and ethically.

 

[pyromatter]

 

[MarcusMaximus]

This is a serious offense. I hope the statement is a joke and needs an emoji.

We saw them explicitly trying to figure out where the FSD demos were happening to try to run them off the road. Not a joke at all.

 

[UnknownSoldier]

Must be nice being Tesla, issue $2 billion worth of stock and the share price jumps by 5%. Actually, Tesla has a history of this, previous share offerings have also caused the price to rise. Meanwhile, at Renault...

Bloomberg - Are you a robot?

The legacy automakers are staring down the barrel of a gun labeled "Euro Emissions Standards" and they need to fund electrification, clean up their existing fleet, and also try to sell people electric cars not named Tesla all at the same time. The window for success is closing faster than anyone thinks.

 

[Zero CO2]

I think you are under-estimating the value of range for many people that goes well beyond cold weather and fast driving in rural areas. I've found that, mostly for convenience reasons, about 240-260 miles is the minimum I would accept even though I could make 200 miles work. At 200 miles trip planning becomes MUCH more important. 40-60 miles might not sound like much difference but it would impact me greatly even though I tend to not be a high miles driver on a daily basis.

Here's the interesting thing. You imply Taycan's target market is more interested in performance than range. But think about how a sports car is used, especially a four-door sports car like the Taycan. If you are going to use its capabilities you will either be on a track (ideally) or on scenic rural roads that are not heavily trafficked. That's why sports car clubs always have their rallies out in beautiful rural areas. And if you're on a track, range matters even more because there is precious little of it when driving that hard. Given these factors, I think the Taycan's 200 mile rated range is a VERY significant limitation to their target audience.



We will have to re-visit this after the Taycan has been out in the real world long enough for some real results but I think the EPA range is very likely accurate and realistic for legal driving on a mix of public roads, similar to the Model S. We will see if it has an advantage over the rated range of the Model S when driven at higher speeds on a racetrack but it would take quite a divergence from the EPA numbers relative to that of the Model S for it to even approach the track range of the Model S. I don't see that happening. Even if it approached the useable range of the Model S while burning up the Autobahn at triple-digit speeds (due to the higher efficiency allowed by the two-speed gearbox) that is a small consolation considering that is a VERY limited use type of situation. It may very well turn out that the Plaid Model S is better at everything!

An interesting contest for performance EV's would be a measure of which one could do the most laps (of a road racing course) in a fixed amount of time, say an hour or so. The exact amount of time would be short enough to keep speeds high enough to be interesting but long enough that neither car could drive the allotted amount of time if driven at 10/10ths without depleting the battery before the time ran out.

agree with all of the above and the fact you would have to be a real dum-dum to accept an overpriced Porsche Taycant with a 201 mi vs. your 300 mi + options with a Tesla ... you can save at least $ 50K get a better car and invest the $ 50 K and eventually pay for your Tesla

my Model S has 240 mi range and is perfect for commuting and regional trips ... have not attempted multi day trip yet but I could see this type of trip being unacceptable with only 240 mi range... hate to admit here but still flying for any trip over one day ....

 

[Intl Professor]

"The writing is on the wall and the next logical step for Tesla is to either take over an existing utility or launch a similarly comprehensive suite of grid management solutions for utilities."​

PG&E is ripe for a take-over. And I bet Tesla doesn't let its transmission assets fall into disrepair and vulnerable to sparking wild fires.

Word.

State of CA might take it over.

 

[SoGA Fan Club]

Anyone posted this article yet? I wonder how much it's costing Porsche for these articles. As Mark Twain so eloquently stated, there's lies, damn lies, and statistics.

Nobody driving a EV measures a charge based on rate of charge, kwh per minute and all that BS (they may compare these measurements when discussing different charging stations). At the end of the day, what matters is, how long do I need to charge to get the miles I need. If I need 200 miles to make it to my destination, which car will charge 200 miles (from maybe 10 or 15%) the fastest? Why do they NEVER do these test on what matters - DISTANCE you can travel per minute of charging? Or how many minutes to get x number of miles. If car a gets 100 miles of range and car b gets 1000, of course car b is going to reach 80% faster. But does that mean a damn thing?

Its becuase they know damn well it would be horrible for Porsche and that would defeat the purpose of the article. And the BS works. I just had a neighbor point me to that article and tell me Porsche is eating Tesla's lunch in battery technology. I explained it to him in practical terms (ie, how many miles you get for those charges Car and Driver did) and he said, "hmmm, I didn't think about it that way". And most people don't!

Porsche Taycan Can Charge Far More Quickly Than Tesla Model S

 

[Lessmog]

Only skimmed over your link, but it sounds like they're making wood gas and burning that.

Wood gas - Wikipedia

If your goal is to minimize the carbon emissions, you end up with process more like charcoal production, with the gas having a maximal H2 fraction and minimal CO fraction, leaving you with biochar (which can be used to improve soil aeration and mineral retention). Yields less energy, though. On the other end, you can tune it for a higher energy burn, at the cost of more CO2 emissions. Either way, you burn a cleaner product than simple wood incineration (although, as a caution, wood gas is quite toxic until you burn it; carbon monoxide is always a major component).

If you really want to max out the efficiency, you can burn wood gas in a combined-cycle power plant at upwards of 60% efficiency (must be reduced for how much energy you lose in the gassification process)

Wood gas is also related to syngas, and can be used for production of other hydrocarbon products. Carbon monoxide is quite stable at atmospheric temperature, but highly reactive at elevated temperatures.

Yes, it resembles the gen-gas that was used for autos during WW2, a mix of CO and H2 in place of gasoline. Yes, it is very toxic and not very efficient (but what could you do?).
This flow chart shows that 60% figure.
The company intends to go publicly tradeable "soon" (I have a few shares but there is no market yet).

 

[KarenRei]

Holy frick, those harvesters were fast....

Lots of work for Tesla to do even while no new trees are being cut...

 

[SoGA Fan Club]

Colorado bill would allow direct EV sales

I don't get this bill. Why distinguish EV or ICE? What is the reasoning for EVs to be sold direct just because they are EVs? Does this mean Ford can sell the mustang direct? I wouldn't like that if I were a Ford dealer.

Isn't the law preventing direct sales designed to protect franchises from manufacturers? Why not just say, "any car manufacturer that has never had franchised dealers in the state of Colorado can sell direct"?

 

[Lessmog]

Holy frick, those harvesters were fast....

Lots of work for Tesla to do even while no new trees are being cut...

Yeah. And I could almost make out the ants on the ground.
No bats of course, since they are nocturnal.

 

[MC3OZ]

As I sit here on an unusually sunny PA weekend watching our small solar PV system feed our Powerwalls, I wonder how much money Tesla makes on them now? They haven’t appeared to change (at least, not outwardly from a customer perspective) in many years and the price even increased during this time.

Seeing the announcement about the new LR+ Model S/X makes me think either they’re still using cheap/commodity batteries (that have gotten cheaper) or the newer battery technology (that allows them to use fewer cells) while keeping the price the same.

Must be some pretty nice margins on Powerwall 2 these days.

While they have virtually no competition, I wonder if they’ll be due for an upgrade at some point soon?

I hope so, Tesla Energy is an important part of the business, and also critical to the mission...

Solar Roof in particular I think is a at a similar stage to the 2008 Roadster and Powerwall is not that far ahead.

Automotive has been making products for long and has been the priority, we have seen automotive product improve and the prices decrease over time..

Energy Storage / Generation is similar, price drops will unlock further demand .. but sometimes that takes a few years..

 

[JustMe]

I don't get this bill. Why distinguish EV or ICE? What is the reasoning for EVs to be sold direct just because they are EVs? Does this mean Ford can sell the mustang direct? I wouldn't like that if I were a Ford dealer.

Isn't the law preventing direct sales designed to protect franchises from manufacturers? Why not just say, "any car manufacturer that has never had franchised dealers in the state of Colorado can sell direct"?

The dealer protection laws protect dealers at consumers’ expense.

I wonder how a measure allowing for direct sale of cars from a manufacturer would fare as a ballot measure. It’s hard for me to imagine unruly mobs of consumers protesting at the Capitol building in defense of auto dealers.

 

[Lessmog]

Questions about Q1 deliveries and why I feel they may be lower than expected.

I have a feeling that TSLA may report lower than expected Q1 car deliveries. First I don't know what the "expected number" is, but given that Elon has stated that their goal is well over 500K deliveries for this year, then I suspect that a number significantly below 100K for the quarter may be perceived as a miss. Here are my reasons:

1) Model Y ramp. Is TSLA building a whole new production line in Fremont for the Model Y or are they using an existing M3 line for this? I suspect they are using an existing M3 line and if that is the case, there will be less M3s built as they ramp Model Y and therefore less Model 3s delivered. They will not begin delivering Model Ys until March and these will not significantly show up in Q1.

2) No prebuilt inventory at the end of Q4. TSLA delivered more cars than they produced in Q4 which means that they do not have much inventory to deliver. This combined with reduced M3 production due to #1 above means that they will deliver less cars in Q1.

3) China corona virus. Yes, I know that the shutdown in China was only for 1 week, but I don't see too many customers out "car shopping" during this outbreak.

These are my reasons why deliveries in Q1 may be low, but I want to know from the community what they feel the expected deliveries will be. After all, a miss only happens when expectations are not met.

Keep shorting or perhaps save interest and cut checks to the longs

Joking aside, it seems @kishdude has a legitimate question: What exactly are the expectations for Q1-20, and will they be met? That will absolutely influence stock reaction closer to earnings.

Me, I think they will be met if they are kept reasonable, and I am not very worried about those caveats.
BUT please let's not get ahead of ourselves and promise moons out of our reach, like we so often tend to do.

Absolute moderation, guys and birds! (Oops)

 

[MC3OZ]

I don't get this bill. Why distinguish EV or ICE? What is the reasoning for EVs to be sold direct just because they are EVs? Does this mean Ford can sell the mustang direct? I wouldn't like that if I were a Ford dealer.

Isn't the law preventing direct sales designed to protect franchises from manufacturers? Why not just say, "any car manufacturer that has never had franchised dealers in the state of Colorado can sell direct"?

Actually this might be needed for traditional car companies to sell EVs in volume and compete... I can never work out how the dealership model can survive the transition to EVs...

 

[lklundin]

I am so mad. It seems another court ordered to stop the woodcutting work at Giga Berlin just today. I can't believe the "green" league of Brandenburg is standing in the way of the clean energy transition. It's unbelievable. It is stopped until there is a new hearing on the failed emergency appeals (from Friday) of said green league...

in German:
Tesla: FDP warnt vor Klagewelle gegen Gigafactory in Brandenburg

At least from the article it's clear that politicians are aware that the dealing of said green league is myopic. Hoping they are gonna make clearing this the top priority for the week.

While probably misguided the environmentalists are not dumb. In Germany the courts are quite independent, so what politicians may say is not likely to matter much. In that sense the re-filing at a higher court to protest the plantation harvesting so close to Tesla's deadline is a smart move. If the plantation is not gone by the end of the month, then no further logging can be done until much later in the year.

So the court has about ten days to determine whether the protest-filing has merit - if it takes longer (incl. a finding that it does have merit), then Tesla can't finish the harvesting within the deadline and the overall timeline goes out the window.

On the somewhat brighter side, it is important to understand that the court ordered an immediate ban simply because if they hadn't the harvesting would have been over by the time the court had made its determination. So the temporary stop is just motivated by caution.

On the very bright side, Tesla had excellent timing in its raising of capital, because we seem to have significant volatility ahead...

 

[Fact Checking]

Questions about Q1 deliveries and why I feel they may be lower than expected.

I have a feeling that TSLA may report lower than expected Q1 car deliveries. First I don't know what the "expected number" is, but given that Elon has stated that their goal is well over 500K deliveries for this year, then I suspect that a number significantly below 100K for the quarter may be perceived as a miss. Here are my reasons:

1) Model Y ramp. Is TSLA building a whole new production line in Fremont for the Model Y or are they using an existing M3 line for this? I suspect they are using an existing M3 line and if that is the case, there will be less M3s built as they ramp Model Y and therefore less Model 3s delivered. They will not begin delivering Model Ys until March and these will not significantly show up in Q1.

2) No prebuilt inventory at the end of Q4. TSLA delivered more cars than they produced in Q4 which means that they do not have much inventory to deliver. This combined with reduced M3 production due to #1 above means that they will deliver less cars in Q1.

3) China corona virus. Yes, I know that the shutdown in China was only for 1 week, but I don't see too many customers out "car shopping" during this outbreak.

These are my reasons why deliveries in Q1 may be low, but I want to know from the community what they feel the expected deliveries will be. After all, a miss only happens when expectations are not met.

I agree with @KarenRei's response to your concerns, although my current estimates are lower than hers: 90k-95k deliveries as the baseline, subject to upward revisions if bullish data comes in.

Regarding the coronavirus, that's a valid concern, as most of China has turned into ghost towns as people voluntarily self-quarantine at home, streets and shops are empty even in cities not under cerfew:

A photographer captured how eerily empty Shanghai's normally bustling streets are amid the coronavirus outbreak​

There's quite a few mitigating factors for Tesla though:

• Tesla China plans to extend "home delivery", for those customers who want to avoid the delivery center.
• Tesla is one of the few carmakers where you can buy the car entirely online.
• Historically, during and after SARS car sales increased in China, which several analysts chalked up as buyers pulling forward their purchases to avoid public transportation.
• Major Chinese cities such as Beijing and Shanghai have strict license plate quotas for new cars, which are difficult and expensive to acquire. But EVs are exempt - so car buyers that need a car quickly will consider Tesla seriously.
  
• Tesla has "Biodefense Mode" hospital grade air filter system that can filter out much smaller (military grade) virus strains as well - and should have no problem filtering out the relatively large coronavirus.
• Tesla China is rumored to have an order book larger than 100,000 Model 3's, so they can select customers who are willing to take delivery. I.e. no need for people to go into Tesla Stores - they already sold out several quarters worth of GF3 production.
• Production is the main constraint in Q1 I think, not deliveries:
  • workers need to be able to get into the factory,
  • supply chains need to be humming,
  • second shift needs to be trained and ramped up.

So I'm cautiously optimistic about Q1 GF3 deliveries, with the assumption that there's no big supply chain disruption.