Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[davepsilon]

How old are you? Note that you need to be 59 1/2 yrs old or older to be able to pull out of your roth without having to pay taxes.

EDIT: There is a stipulation that if the money is used for college education or for your first house, you can pull out of your roth without any tax implications. Hmmm you stated you plan on living out of your cybertruck.. not sure if that qualifies but if it does, please let us know; that would be pretty cool!

So assuming one is younger than 59.5 if the money in a Roth IRA is used for college education it can be withdrawn penalty free but not tax free, still have to pay taxes on the gains. Similarly for a house if you haven’t owned one in a few years and have had a Roth IRA longer than five years one can withdraw $10k penalty free but must pay taxes on the gains. One can always withdraw the original contributions to a Roth penalty and tax free - they were made with post tax money though so no tax advantages there.

 

[uselesslogin]

Dave talks here (right at the end) about the importance of being a lonely investor - doing your own homework. His final parting shot however is that maybe investors can work together and do well - TMC being the model he has in mind presumably.

I completely agree. Coming from an Engineering background, I knew Tesla would succeed. I trust my judgement in others (TMC experts) and that has given me the confidence to be all in on TSLA high risk strategies. Pre TMC I was probably only 20% TSLA (some would say a balanced portfolio... AMZN, AAPL, ILMN etc.)

I hope this group stays together here or somewhere else in the future. I won't have the same instinct about buying BYND etc. in the future but I trust Factchecking etc. enough to risk 10% of my portfolio. I will do my own napkin maths and a bit of research but I know my limitations.

I once put a full 25% of my portfolio into GTAT stock that was introduced to me by a forum member here. I went right past all the red flags and held it straight into bankruptcy. The biggest thing that kept me hanging on is knowing that the particular forum member was more or less all in. And his confidence was complete. There were a few others who are probably still here that did the same as me with different percentages. I felt worse because I started recommending GTAT around the office, thankfully with enough caveats that others didn’t buy in any significant way.

That member had no ill intentions. He seems to have lost the majority of his investment accounts at the time and presumably had some difficult life adjustments to face.

I think of myself as more intelligent than most people and also people tell me I’m more intelligent than most people. Yet here I went charging into GTAT like it was a sure thing. I emotionally discounted every red flag. You live, you learn, but I just wanted to share this as a cautionary tale. Also, this isn’t an argument against owning stocks recommended by forum members, just be careful of those emotions and try to examine every red flag.

 

[Tslynk67]

Since it’s AH, how comfortable are people with submitting trades on their phones? I see lots of screenshots of apps, but can’t quite bring myself to submit thousands of dollars of trades on my phone over a WiFi connection.

What are "phones"?

 

[ammulder]

Keep in mind HW3 and a lot of other hardware components and still made in the US, especially a lot of the hardware that is the brains of the car that other companies will find hard to replicate..

[...]

IMO Tesla will keep the latest and most hi-tech components in house and made in the US.....

I thought TSMC fabricated the HW3 chip... though I'm not exactly sure where I got that from. In any case, I don't think it's made in the USA -- at one point there was a fuss over whether they could get a tariff exception for it and the exception wasn't granted.

Edit: sounds like I may have just made this up, sorry.

 

[davepsilon]

Yeah, and the other thing to keep in mind is that if you did it in a taxable account that means you might no longer qualify for a Roth IRA contribution for 2020.

Yes, but you could still do a backdoor contribution. US tax law on Roth is so silly. Income above $X then you can’t contribute to a Roth. But you can shove $6k of after tax money into a traditional IRA and fill out one form and covert that to a Roth.

 

[juanmedina]

So assuming one is younger than 59.5 if the money in a Roth IRA is used for college education it can be withdrawn penalty free but not tax free, still have to pay taxes on the gains. Similarly for a house if you haven’t owned one in a few years and have had a Roth IRA longer than five years one can withdraw $10k penalty free but must pay taxes on the gains. One can always withdraw the original contributions to a Roth penalty and tax free - they were made with post tax money though so no tax advantages there.

You could trade in a traditional IRA, rolled over to a Roth IRA (pay taxes), wait 5 years and get the money out penalty free and with no additional taxes before 59 1/2. You just have to make sure some how you show low income during the rollovers so you don't pay a lot of taxes.

How to Access Retirement Funds Early | Mad Fientist

 

[KarenRei]

View attachment 513036

I'm diversified! I hold both Tesla stock and options!

(Yes, I actually do own a bit more than just Tesla, although it's the lion's share of my holdings )

 

[Tslynk67]

Etrade app is acting SUPER glitchy for me, anybody else?

Guess they've already started dicking about with it: WSJ News Exclusive | Morgan Stanley Is Buying E*Trade, Betting on Littler Customers

 

[WarpedOne]

I thought TSMC fabricated the HW3 chip... though I'm not exactly sure where I got that from. In any case, I don't think it's made in the USA -- at one point there was a fuss over whether they could get a tariff exception for it and the exception wasn't granted.

HW3 chip is fabricated by Samsung in it s USA factory.
Tesla's New HW3 Self-Driving Computer — It's A Beast (CleanTechnica Deep Dive) | CleanTechnica

 

[jhm]

if I may jump in on @Bobfitz1 side. He’s not disagreeing with Ark’s valuation. It’s the methodology.

I.e. They’re effectively doing this:

1) Assume 37M EVs worldwide.
2) Assume Tesla’s share remains constant (changed from decreasing).
3) Calculate market cap.

Far superior would be to assume 50% annual growth with gradually declining ASPs.

You could begin with 50%/y growth for Tesla, assume a certain market share, and back into the total number of EVs. Tesla is now the largest EV maker and set the pace. The main question is how well other EV makers will keep up.

 

[Chickenlittle]

I once put a full 25% of my portfolio into GTAT stock that was introduced to me by a forum member here. I went right past all the red flags and held it straight into bankruptcy. The biggest thing that kept me hanging on is knowing that the particular forum member was more or less all in. And his confidence was complete. There were a few others who are probably still here that did the same as me with different percentages. I felt worse because I started recommending GTAT around the office, thankfully with enough caveats that others didn’t buy in any significant way.

That member had no ill intentions. He seems to have lost the majority of his investment accounts at the time and presumably had some difficult life adjustments to face.

I think of myself as more intelligent than most people and also people tell me I’m more intelligent than most people. Yet here I went charging into GTAT like it was a sure thing. I emotionally discounted every red flag. You live, you learn, but I just wanted to share this as a cautionary tale. Also, this isn’t an argument against owning stocks recommended by forum members, just be careful of those emotions and try to examine every red flag.

I remember that. He was pushing GTAT hard would PM me to invest. Never did can’t remember his/her screen name but they must be kicking himself these days for not staying in tesla

 

[StapleGun]

I once put a full 25% of my portfolio into GTAT stock that was introduced to me by a forum member here. I went right past all the red flags and held it straight into bankruptcy. The biggest thing that kept me hanging on is knowing that the particular forum member was more or less all in. And his confidence was complete. There were a few others who are probably still here that did the same as me with different percentages. I felt worse because I started recommending GTAT around the office, thankfully with enough caveats that others didn’t buy in any significant way.

That member had no ill intentions. He seems to have lost the majority of his investment accounts at the time and presumably had some difficult life adjustments to face.

I think of myself as more intelligent than most people and also people tell me I’m more intelligent than most people. Yet here I went charging into GTAT like it was a sure thing. I emotionally discounted every red flag. You live, you learn, but I just wanted to share this as a cautionary tale. Also, this isn’t an argument against owning stocks recommended by forum members, just be careful of those emotions and try to examine every red flag.

Well stated. I did the same, luckily only with about 10% of my portfolio but it could have been more.

I think it's worth appreciating how rare a truly great stock is. I think the GTAT hype around here grew from a relative "boring" period after Tesla jumped from the 30's to 200's in 2013. Many of us wanted that excitement of a breakout stock again but didn't want to wait patiently on another story where we actually had a collective information edge over the market. So we manufactured hype around GTAT, claiming it was the next TSLA, but in hindsight there were absolutely no similarities between the two and GTAT had about as much proven tech as Faraday Future.

In the end it was a good lesson for me. And in the grand scheme of things it turned out to be pretty cheap.

 

[jhm]

I cited one example of inconsistency at the end of my first post which another member pointed out correctly was my error.



My posts primary point was that ARK's forecast of 37M EV sales in 2024 was unsupportably high. Qualifying that on page 26 by saying "only if traditional automakers will be able to scale EV production" is IMO not a meaningful caveat to their unrealistic forecast because the ICE companies could "scale EV production" to some degree, but not come anywhere close to 37M. ARK didn't say rapidly scale production. Nor did they say a more accurate "only if they are able to scale production at an unprecedented 79% CAGR".
On page 20 they wrote: "ARK’s thesis for the evolution of the market differs dramatically. Based on Wright’s Law, we forecast EV sales will be 37 million units, six-times higher than the forecasting agencies’ consensus estimate for 2024." No caveat at all here.



Yes. I would say based on the longer more detailed ARK article from Jan. 31, 2020 "Tesla's Potential Trajectory During the Next Five Years", ARK's TSLA valuation projections are entirely independent of ICE manufacturers ability to scale. Your negative correlations seem very likely, but ARK doesn't note them as factors in their (10) Tesla scenarios. Tesla Price Target: Tesla's Potential Trajectory During the Next Five Years



My posts never said anything against ARK's TSLA valuation projections. They were against ARK's 37M projection for global EV sales in 2024 and how it appears they arrived at it. I.e. assuming all non Tesla manufacturers could achieve 79% CAGR with no details about how this might be possible over five years. The mystery of how ARK's Tesla models seem very good yet they can come up with what I'd argue is an outlandish prediction for global EV sales, remains a mystery. It is just that even very smart people occasionally lay an egg.

One last caveat as to what a realistic 2024 global EV sales might be. While I don't believe the western ICE manufacturers can grow at 79% yearly, I don't know for sure if the larger Chinese EV manufacturers might manage to grow as fast as Tesla. They would have to be able to drive battery costs down as rapidly as we expect Tesla to drive them down. That seems unlikely.

Folks, can we take this discussion to the Blind Faith thread? This is where we've been debating this stuff for years.

 

[Causalien]

Well stated. I did the same, luckily only with about 10% of my portfolio but it could have been more.

I think it's worth appreciating how rare a truly great stock is. I think the GTAT hype around here grew from a relative "boring" period after Tesla jumped from the 30's to 200's in 2013. Many of us wanted that excitement of a breakout stock again but didn't want to wait patiently on another story where we actually had a collective information edge over the market. So we manufactured hype around GTAT, claiming it was the next TSLA, but in hindsight there were absolutely no similarities between the two and GTAT had about as much proven tech as Faraday Future.

In the end it was a good lesson for me. And in the grand scheme of things it turned out to be pretty cheap.

For my own education purposes. I am interested in knowing if anyone on this forum physically met the member?

Another is, is it true that he solicited ppl to invest?

Cause those are redflags for me. Someone not physically verified to be real and u solicited investment in a stock.

I usually guard what I invest in like a secret and only really divulge the stock if it already succeeded.

 

[LN1_Casey]

Guess they've already started dicking about with it: WSJ News Exclusive | Morgan Stanley Is Buying E*Trade, Betting on Littler Customers

Google: How to change my stocks from E*trade to Robinhood....

 

[Todd Burch]

What a disastrous start pre-market -2% more than 22$ lost ???

 

[Dare]

Wouldn’t mind acquiring some lightly used shares at a discount today. The only question is what sort of discount will be available?

 

[Boomer19]

Google: How to change my stocks from E*trade to Robinhood....

the implication that robinhood is better than etrade, before or after MS takeover?

google barrons best online brokers and use that for researching your move first, at least. moving positions around in a volatile market is a PIA. better to it once, than have to do it twice.

 

[Fact Checking]

I'm diversified! I hold both Tesla stock and options!

No cash??

 

[KarenRei]

For my own education purposes. I am interested in knowing if anyone on this forum physically met the member?

Another is, is it true that he solicited ppl to invest?

Cause those are redflags for me. Someone not physically verified to be real and u solicited investment in a stock.

I usually guard what I invest in like a secret and only really divulge the stock if it already succeeded.

When considering new stocks, I google them and see how common it is to find people promoting them as a good investment. The more promotion I find (relative to the market cap), the less interested I am. :Þ

On the other hand, if I find a bunch of promotion I find for shorting the stock, the more interested I am in the stock To an extent, of course... the company also has to actually have have a solid business model alongside the gleeful shorts.