Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Chunky Jr.]

I haven't seen a single bear case for Tesla that didn't involve either an irrational hatred of Elon (and/or EVs in general), or a fundamental misunderstanding of Tesla's business, Or both.

It's amusing to see analysts finally realizing that Tesla has a big lead in batteries and also has an energy division.

 

[mickle]

So, noticing the store is consistently out of things like

The J1772 adapter
The 14-50 adapter
The Chademo adapter

Etc

I never paid attention before but now that we are in the order mode just wondering how common this is. We are on the “email when it’s in” list but it’s been awhile. Is there a standard wait or unpredictable?

Thanks.

You can find all of these on Ebay.

 

[MC3OZ]

The traditional playbook from China is to fork the factory by stealth opening another one somewhere else and hiring half of your workers away. This is after copying all the machines you have and stealing all the software. Sometimes they go further by having the worker fake declare machine parts wear and tear so they can move these parts to the forked factory.

Then they come to you and say, sell me your factory at half price, otherwise we will openly compete with you.

For domestic companies that are champions of people and high profile, the CCP will come by in secret one day and with some leverage they obtained on you (either your family member's dirty secret or some gov schenaningans) they force you to sign over the majority stake to CCP members. Jack Ma suffered this fate.

TSMC is one of the foreign corps that they haven't done this to yet. But TSMC are very familiar with their playbook and have not moved their most prized processes to China and retained them from Taiwan.

Keep in mind HW3 and a lot of other hardware components and still made in the US, especially a lot of the hardware that is the brains of the car that other companies will find hard to replicate..

It is also likely that the first thing a new car does when coming on line is, connect to Telsa using a unique Hardware ID and download the latest software... Tesla can probably easily identify cars they haven't made... and stop them driving... they can include security to stop car software being copied...

So the Chinese copier now needs to implement their on OTA updates for find a way to get a version of software running in the cars...

IMO Tesla will keep the latest and most hi-tech components in house and made in the US.....

The Roadster, Model S and Model X will not be made in China,,,, Tesla keeps innovating...

I'm sure the Chinese will steal or acquire some knowledge, designs and ideas, but how far that goes beyond what they could get from a tear down is debatable..

IMO the Chinese government wants Tesla in China for 2 reasons:-

1. Help the Chinese reduce/eliminate oil imports...
2. Improve Chinese EVs by exposing them to quality competition and new thinking.....

China needs Tesla for at least 10 years, annoy Tesla and they go home.....

How it will play out 20 years down the track is hard to guess, China might even be a very different place in 20 years... it is certainly changing rapidly..

 

[Paracelsus]

Very off topic so apologies in advance, but given that we continued on a course of 'out of this world' TSLA price action again today, I feel compelled to post this........particularly because it made me laugh out loud (and it somewhat reflects the price action). Cheers everyone!

 

[LJS22]

I haven't seen a single bear case for Tesla that didn't involve either an irrational hatred of Elon (and/or EVs in general), or a fundamental misunderstanding of Tesla's business, Or both. It's amusing to see analysts finally realizing that Tesla has a big lead in batteries and also has an energy division.

The only instability I feel from the market right now is it seems many are just wanting a new trick from Tesla everyday. The money seems unsettled, I’m just hoping we get enough people in the stock that will hold onto it for impending greatness that will be realized.

Cramer telling everyone to sell some shares is the kind of money I’m not a fan of. It’s like he felt it was worth double GM and Ford combined but once it got there he tells people to sell. That’s a mistake here, battery day, model Y, S&P, Semi, roadster, solar, energy, 500k+ cars, FSD, China, Berlin, Texas. That’s the kind of growth that we will be looking at in the next 12 months. I don’t believe that more than a couple of these are factored into the current price.

It’s nice that the market has caught up to a fair evaluation based on what Tesla has accomplished, but no need to panic about it. We can relax, hold those shares and watch the company execute in 2020. It won’t be a perfect ride, but selling now is a one way ticket

 

[GaryW]

OT:

#changingchina

A friend in China is predicting a baby boom in China this November.

There are a lot of people stuck at home with little to do.

#newcustomers

 

[Chunky Jr.]

A friend in China is predicting a baby boom in China this November.

There are a lot of people stuck at home with little to do.

Either that or a divorce boom.

 

[Carl Raymond]

A small point regarding speed sign recognition by FSD...

The car will require a second method of determining speed zone. Perhaps maps with GPS. Perhaps memory from prior trips. Perhaps visual clues such as driveways and gutters. Or some other way.

But it *will* need another method, otherwise you would need to put a speed limit sign at the exit to your garage/driveway. Most trips involve some minutes of driving before encountering the first speed limit sign. Humans use the ‘remember from last trip’ method.

 

[StealthP3D]

But it *will* need another method, otherwise you would need to put a speed limit sign at the exit to your garage/driveway. Most trips involve some minutes of driving before encountering the first speed limit sign. Humans use the ‘remember from last trip’ method.

Last time I checked, computers were pretty good at remembering too. Probably better than humans, LOL!

 

[MC3OZ]

A small point regarding speed sign recognition by FSD...

The car will require a second method of determining speed zone. Perhaps maps with GPS. Perhaps memory from prior trips. Perhaps visual clues such as driveways and gutters. Or some other way.

But it *will* need another method, otherwise you would need to put a speed limit sign at the exit to your garage/driveway. Most trips involve some minutes of driving before encountering the first speed limit sign. Humans use the ‘remember from last trip’ method.

I had some ideas on that:- Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the 2019-2020 Investors' Roundtable

 

[StealthP3D]

Since it’s AH, how comfortable are people with submitting trades on their phones? I see lots of screenshots of apps, but can’t quite bring myself to submit thousands of dollars of trades on my phone over a WiFi connection.

I don't use a phone because the screen is so small and it's harder to switch between tabs. But I wouldn't worry about using home wi-fi as long as you have configured a secure setup.

You shouldn't have to make a lot of trades to do very well as an investor. Day trading is over-rated.

 

[StealthP3D]

LOL - can't believe what's happening with SPCE (they have no hope selling tickets for $250k each for a few minutes of "space" once SpaceX starts orbital tourism operations with a Starship).

I'll be holding out for a close slingshot around the moon. How awesome would that be! I figure prices will come down two or three years after the DearMoon project.

 

[MP3Mike]

I don't want to sound like your dad, but I do hope you've locked away enough cash to pay tax on your trades and to have a fully funded 6 month emergency fund in cash.

Yeah, and the other thing to keep in mind is that if you did it in a taxable account that means you might no longer qualify for a Roth IRA contribution for 2020.

 

[Buckminster]

The only moat is the pace of innovation.

The original V1/V2 Superchargers are a moat and will remain so for another decade, with or without V3 upgrades.

Being direct > Belgium > Beer, waffles > Obesity

It's astonishing how quickly discussions can derail in this thread. Stubborn bunch. Several posts about obesity were removed and so will any more on the four subjects above.

Err, pretty sure sure you are 'being direct' right now. One rule for us...

 

[Buckminster]

Proposed San Diego initiative would ban gas car sales over $50k, first in US - Electrek
This is pretty being news already. However, this could be a blueprint for other entire countries to penalise ICE vehicles much earlier than they can ban them.

If you want a luxury car - buy a Tesla BEV. If you don't want a BEV, we are not limiting your freedom to get around.

 

[Rammstein]

I already had a buddy tell me to sell shares today. The more this stock goes up the more crazy I look to them. Then they will eventually find out I’m not crazy after all. They were the ones with their confirmation bias, they were the ones that were brain washed by the media, and they were the ones living in a delusion. I plan on keeping these shares for as long as possible. I’m not going to let some person that can’t see this disruption convince me to sell shares. No f-ing way.

 

[MC3OZ]

'Magic crystals' to enable the future of electric cars

"The world has never needed these quantities of lithium before, therefore current production methods are not scalable to the magnitude necessary," he says.

"Matthew's disruptive technology allows a transformative shift in the way we can now recover this quintessential resource. It will greatly improve the economics and environmental impact of lithium mining."

Very interesting tech...

 

[AlexS]

Does $767 offering have lock-up period?

 

[SpaceCash]

Does $767 offering have lock-up period?

It doesn't matter whether it does or doesn't. Daily short selling manipulation by hedge funds/MM's usually eclipses the paltry 3 million shares that were offered. Non-issue. Literally just forget about it

 

[Artful Dodger]

How does (highest close) x (5th highest volume) = (only 18th highest sales)?

Is there a mistake there or am I missing something?

Indeed that's a misprint; Feb 19, 2020 should be ranked 5th by Trades but 18th by Volume.

Here's the Top Ten Days sorted by Traded: (my dataset goes back to 05-27-2015)

Even this data doesn't precisely capture the underlying variable, which would be better represented by (VWAP * Volume). But again, NASDAQ adjusts the volume numbers after the close of market (some times by up to 100s of 1000s of shares), but strips out the SP info when doing the volume updates, so there is truly no publicly available definitive information on the amount of money that changes hands each day.

Thanks for the catch.

Cheers!