-
Want to remove ads? Register an account and login to see fewer ads, and become a Supporting Member to remove almost all ads.
Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
Fact Checking
Well-Known Member
Here's today's TSLA options open interest histogram in the usual format:
Code:
PUT 450: 903 |## | CALL 450: 33 | |
PUT 460: 967 |## | CALL 460: 13 | |
PUT 470: 248 |# | CALL 470: 86 | |
PUT 480: 744 |# | CALL 480: 147 | |
PUT 490: 571 |# | CALL 490: 100 | |
PUT 500: 4,637 |####### | CALL 500: 945 |## |
PUT 510: 428 |# | CALL 510: 123 | |
PUT 520: 1,367 |## | CALL 520: 119 | |
PUT 530: 782 |# | CALL 530: 239 |# |
PUT 540: 1,026 |## | CALL 540: 271 |# |
PUT 550: 3,276 |##### | CALL 550: 359 |# |
PUT 560: 533 |# | CALL 560: 195 | |
PUT 570: 956 |## | CALL 570: 317 |# |
PUT 580: 1,255 |## | CALL 580: 264 |# |
PUT 590: 1,830 |### | CALL 590: 197 | |
PUT 600: 4,751 |####### | CALL 600: 339 |# |
PUT 610: 1,166 |## | CALL 610: 152 | |
PUT 620: 1,605 |### | CALL 620: 382 |# |
PUT 630: 2,089 |### | CALL 630: 210 |# |
PUT 640: 988 |## | CALL 640: 247 |# |
PUT 650: 4,875 |####### | CALL 650: 555 |# |
PUT 660: 1,465 |## | CALL 660: 294 |# |
PUT 670: 1,699 |### | CALL 670: 444 |# |
PUT 680: 2,795 |#### | CALL 680: 1,096 |## |
PUT 690: 1,988 |### | CALL 690: 1,629 |### |
PUT 700: 6,601 |########## | CALL 700: 3,994 |###### |
PUT 710: 2,972 |#### | CALL 710: 1,177 |## |
PUT 720: 3,170 |##### | CALL 720: 3,755 |###### |
PUT 730: 1,607 |### | CALL 730: 3,676 |##### |
PUT 740: 2,259 |### | CALL 740: 3,529 |##### |
PUT 750: 5,957 |######### | CALL 750: 4,854 |####### |
PUT 760: 1,522 |## | CALL 760: 1,722 |### |
PUT 770: 2,187 |### | CALL 770: 1,715 |### |
PUT 780: 8,125 |############ | CALL 780: 4,086 |###### |
PUT 790: 5,145 |######## | CALL 790: 2,283 |### |
PUT 800: 7,606 |########### | CALL 800: 9,074 |############# |
PUT 810: 1,768 |### | CALL 810: 5,392 |######## |
PUT 820: 1,785 |### | CALL 820: 4,399 |###### |
PUT 830: 1,093 |## | CALL 830: 3,758 |###### |
PUT 840: 1,311 |## | CALL 840: 3,340 |##### |
PUT 850: 1,952 |### | CALL 850: 9,554 |############## |
PUT 860: 779 |# | CALL 860: 2,806 |#### |
PUT 870: 536 |# | CALL 870: 1,975 |### |
PUT 880: 326 |# | CALL 880: 3,164 |##### |
PUT 890: 378 |# | CALL 890: 2,776 |#### |
PUT 900: 1,076 |## | CALL 900: 7,620 |########### |
PUT 910: 137 | | CALL 910: 3,403 |##### |
PUT 920: 140 | | CALL 920: 2,345 |#### |
PUT 930: 317 |# | CALL 930: 2,094 |### |
PUT 940: 40 | | CALL 940: 2,738 |#### |
PUT 950: 74 | | CALL 950: 3,209 |##### |
PUT 960: 55 | | CALL 960: 1,756 |### |
PUT 970: 20 | | CALL 970: 1,666 |### |
PUT 980: 1 | | CALL 980: 1,429 |## |
PUT 990: 7 | | CALL 990: 2,268 |### |
PUT 1,000: 7 | | CALL 1,000: 8,328 |############ |Observations:
- puts are centered around $700-$800, and the biggest block of calls begins at $700, so options makers who aren't delta neutral yet would want a price of $700, preferably $750. Maximum pain for both sides is around $800.
- But puts are pretty flatly distributed and the price has moved down to $650 and below, where there are clusters of open interest at every round $50.
- I'd expect macro factors to dominate, but TSLA has been sold off too hard, so if there's macro consolidation then $700+ are in play again. On the downside there should be a magnification from delta hedging due to there being much more puts in those price ranges than calls.
- On the upside option writers would prefer pretty much any price at $700 and above - there's almost no calls below $700.
- But macros are looking red into the open, which TSLA normally correlates with, so we'll see.
Me, you're asking me? I don't know sheet
But I did find this interesting: Worldometer - real time world statistics
Hit a low of $621 in pre-market. Not looking good again today.
I wonder what a weekend of cases reported in new countries will do to the market on Monday
I wonder what a weekend of cases reported in new countries will do to the market on Monday
By the way I suggest everyone of you who hasn’t already, watch the Oscar winning Best Documentary ‘Inside Job’
Reagan is an utter stain on western democratic history
Fact Checking
Well-Known Member
Actually, TSLA is currently at around $650, well above the early low that coincided with a macro low.
It makes sense to file a SEC complaint even if you think the current SEC administration won't take enforcement action: these complaints get archived, the transaction logs don't go away, maybe a potential Sanders administration, reportedly not a big friend of Wall Street, will give the SEC some real enforcement officials.
Done!
Will be interesting to see the case study of this market (over)reaction to the coronavirus in the future.
"The time to buy is when there's blood in the streets" -- Baron Rothschild (often misattributed to Buffett)
Also, re: everyone who keeps wanting to assert things in contradiction to the experts (WHO, CDC) about the disease: it's not okay to play amateur epidemiologist, anymore than it's okay to try to play amateur climatologist to pretend that climate change isn't real. A couple examples according to people who spend their whole lives studying the nuance of epidemics and have been conducting peer-reviewed investigations into this one:
- The mortality rate outside China is in the rough ballpark of 1%, and overwhelmingly biased toward the elderly and people with preexisting conditions. Not these crazy high numbers that "amateur epidemiologists" calculate by dividing reported deaths by reported recoveries. The vast majority of infected people recover eventually, and there's always undetected cases. Estimating the recovery rate and rate of undetected cases is extremely complicated, involves a lot of nuance, and is not for "amateur epidemiologists".
- The incubation period is 2-14 days, mean ~5 days. Not 24 days, and not 27 days. These were outliers reported among the tens of thousands of case, most likely due to misattribution of the time of exposure (on the other end, there's also outliers as low as 0 days, also likely misattributed). They are not considered by WHO or the CDC to be representative of the disease.
- Like with most diseases, asymptomatic transmission is "possible". Based on study of the disease, it is not considered to represent a meaningful fraction of total infections.
- The situation is not "improving" right now, and there is much greater risk of this breaking out. Looking at the rate of newly reported "cases" is a highly misleading measure for half a dozen different reasons. Both WHO and the CDC have switched to much more serious language about the likelyhood of breakout, and they should be taken at face value.
- It's not just "the flu". The mortality rate is an order of magnitude higher than the average seasonal influenza.
Lastly, re: discussion of the disease: despite me following this closely, I still don't think this is the thread for it. Only major news. Not things like "first case discovered in Belarus" or "some doctor says that the disease can spread from blinking", but things like "Phase I vaccine trials successful" or "Governments approve $20B to accelerate the fight against the disease" or whatnot.
IMHO.
ev-enthusiast
Active Member
New corona virus cases and new deaths in China declining.
Few thoughts completely separated from the Coronavirus...
Could there be an ongoing re-tooling for the Model S/X line that will swift rollout the long overdue facelift with new interior and a few other bits and bobs in combination with the new battery packs? Reason for elaborating is because in Europe deliveries is set to take place in May if ordering today and as we all know battery day will (probably at least) take place sometime late April. We also know that Tesla do everything to eliminate any kind of Osbourning effect and a reveal of updated S/X at battery day could make sense. It also seems that very few S/X are in stock or delivered as of late so it seems like Tesla maybe is lowering production preparing for this re-tooling? Anyone with more insights into production figures for X/S can of course correct my lack of knowledge in this domain.
Not sure if this has been mentioned earlier in this thread, but Car of the year is coming up and Tesla Model 3 is according to the whisper i've heard in Europe likely to come out as the winner of the 7 remaining candidates.
The winner of Car of the year 2020 will be revealed @ Geneva Motorshow on Monday the 2nd of March (in the evening CET). This can hopefully have some positive impact to TSLA in light of Corona Let's hope!
Car of the Year
Could there be an ongoing re-tooling for the Model S/X line that will swift rollout the long overdue facelift with new interior and a few other bits and bobs in combination with the new battery packs? Reason for elaborating is because in Europe deliveries is set to take place in May if ordering today and as we all know battery day will (probably at least) take place sometime late April. We also know that Tesla do everything to eliminate any kind of Osbourning effect and a reveal of updated S/X at battery day could make sense. It also seems that very few S/X are in stock or delivered as of late so it seems like Tesla maybe is lowering production preparing for this re-tooling? Anyone with more insights into production figures for X/S can of course correct my lack of knowledge in this domain.
Not sure if this has been mentioned earlier in this thread, but Car of the year is coming up and Tesla Model 3 is according to the whisper i've heard in Europe likely to come out as the winner of the 7 remaining candidates.
The winner of Car of the year 2020 will be revealed @ Geneva Motorshow on Monday the 2nd of March (in the evening CET). This can hopefully have some positive impact to TSLA in light of Corona
Let's hope!Car of the Year
557
oops 662 almost matching macros, go boy go
Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
I’ll continue incremental buys on the way down until there’s no more down.
Of course this news makes headlines today, obviously has nothing to do with options Friday
Tesla And PG&E To Build World's Largest Battery Farm
Tesla And PG&E To Build World's Largest Battery Farm
ProfTournesol
Member
The only issue with the corona virus related to the stock market is the lockdown of area's and cities. If they stop doing that most stocks will recover.
There are costs** associated with stopping quarantines too, mind you. Increased healthcare costs, increased workplace absenteeism, etc.
But right now, you're overwhelmingly just looking at one thing, and that thing is fear.
** From a cynical point of view, there's also longer-term healthcare savings from having a disease that's primarily a risk to the elderly and people with preexisting conditions kill them off via pneumonia, rather than a slow wasting disease...
Similar threads
- Locked
- Locked
