Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Alphacrux]

Gonna say nope.

They compare their performance to a permanent magnet motor. The Tesla model 3 style is beyond that. Tesla efficiency is already over 90%, the claimed 10% range increase would put them at 99%. (Actually not, since this does not impact the rest of the losses in the vehicle, so even going from 90 to 100% motor efficiency would not get you 10% more range).

Roadster is trimotor, not quad.

More torque at low speed is a matter of stator winding count, and trades off back EMF at higher speeds. Which they address by adding mechanical induced field weakening.

What is the cooling system for the enclosed stator?

Tesla does not use or need a boost converter stage to drive their motor. The high voltage pack only needs a buck converter stage to drive the motor. (Which also acts as a boost stage in regen)

I won't deny that you may be right. However, on the Roadster page on Tesla's website, I could not see any reference to 'tri-motor' design. I would maintain that since it is not listed and it is still a prototype, that the number of motors may be subject to change.

The only other thing I would argue is that the claimed range increase of 10% might be against other electric motors, not Tesla's. Maybe the increase of efficiency from a Tesla motor to theirs is probably less than 10%.

Still worth watching this technology.

 

[Davmal]

I am wondering if Tesla has licensed the Hunstable motor:
Hunstable Electric Turbine promises far more power from a comparably sized electric motor

I wish I had thought of this.

It would seem logical that this motor, combined with Maxwell battery technology, is part of the ‘alien’ technology in the upcoming plaid powertrain. Maxwell battery tech and Hunstable would be the two missing pieces in Teslas secret sauce. Tesla already has Silicon Carbide drive electronics (which other automakers are trying to incorporate).

Look at this quote:

"So far, Linear Labs has inked deals with a scooter maker, with Swedish electric drive system firm Abtery, and with an unnamed firm designing a hypercar to be released within two years, utilizing four HETs."

Who wants to bet that the 'unnamed firm designing a hypercar to be released within two years, utilizing four HETs' is Tesla with their 2nd-generation Roadster?

Also, because of the licensing cost, it seems logical that Tesla might use this a differentiator between the Model 3 and Y on the low-end, and the Models S, X, and Roadster on the high-end.

And then there is this quote from the article:

"We asked Brad how long he thought it would be before we’d see an HET in a car like the Chevrolet Bolt. “Three or four, some say five years out … There are longer lead cycles to get into production for big companies, [but] we are in joint development agreements, we are testing with [automakers].”

Automakers plural. But my money is that Tesla will be first out of the gate.

Links:
Home - Linear Labs

You could well be on to something here. To add further fuel to the speculation fire, Soylent Brown said on Twitter that the Plaid powertrain reminded him of a washing machine. That video of the HET motor very much resembles a washing machine drum...

 

[XHabjab]

Gonna say nope.

They compare their performance to a permanent magnet motor. The Tesla model 3 style is beyond that. Tesla efficiency is already over 90%, the claimed 10% range increase would put them at 99%. (Actually not, since this does not impact the rest of the losses in the vehicle, so even going from 90 to 100% motor efficiency would not get you 10% more range).

Roadster is trimotor, not quad.

More torque at low speed is a matter of stator winding count, and trades off back EMF at higher speeds. Which they address by adding mechanical induced field weakening.

What is the cooling system for the enclosed stator?

Tesla does not use or need a boost converter stage to drive their motor. The high voltage pack only needs a buck converter stage to drive the motor. (Which also acts as a boost stage in regen)

Also, there are more moving parts. This would not be a million mile device, which is where Tesla is headed.

 

[EV forever]

For anyone who can't get past FT's paywall, here is another take on Waymo's lower than expected valuation

https://www.thestreet.com/investing...rtedly-getting-lower-than-estimated-valuation

JPR007 on Twitter

Third Row Podcast on Twitter

Does that mean Waymo is getting out of self-driving cars? Sounds like it to me.

[

 

[KarenRei]

JPR007 on Twitter

Third Row Podcast on Twitter

Does that mean Waymo is getting out of self-driving cars? Sounds like it to me.

View attachment 519537 [

Offering their technology to other automakers? Isn't their total sensor- and compute suite many tens of thousands of dollars? And requiring those automakers to put at least one LIDAR dome on the cars?

What sort of automaker is going to take them up on this offer, exactly?

 

[kengchang]

Exciting stuff! It sounds ideal for building in-wheel hub motors due to its lighter weight.

In wheel hub won't work, road conditions is going to kill the motor faster than you can imagine

I won't deny that you may be right. However, on the Roadster page on Tesla's website, I could not see any reference to 'tri-motor' design. I would maintain that since it is not listed and it is still a prototype, that the number of motors may be subject to change.

The only other thing I would argue is that the claimed range increase of 10% might be against other electric motors, not Tesla's. Maybe the increase of efficiency from a Tesla motor to theirs is probably less than 10%.

Still worth watching this technology.

Tri motor was announced during the unveil go watch the video of the announcement

 

[Beltsbear]

I am wondering if Tesla has licensed the Hunstable motor:
Hunstable Electric Turbine promises far more power from a comparably sized electric motor

I wish I had thought of this.

It would seem logical that this motor, combined with Maxwell battery technology, is part of the ‘alien’ technology in the upcoming plaid powertrain. Maxwell battery tech and Hunstable would be the two missing pieces in Teslas secret sauce. Tesla already has Silicon Carbide drive electronics (which other automakers are trying to incorporate).

Look at this quote:

"So far, Linear Labs has inked deals with a scooter maker, with Swedish electric drive system firm Abtery, and with an unnamed firm designing a hypercar to be released within two years, utilizing four HETs."

Who wants to bet that the 'unnamed firm designing a hypercar to be released within two years, utilizing four HETs' is Tesla with their 2nd-generation Roadster?

Also, because of the licensing cost, it seems logical that Tesla might use this a differentiator between the Model 3 and Y on the low-end, and the Models S, X, and Roadster on the high-end.

And then there is this quote from the article:

"We asked Brad how long he thought it would be before we’d see an HET in a car like the Chevrolet Bolt. “Three or four, some say five years out … There are longer lead cycles to get into production for big companies, [but] we are in joint development agreements, we are testing with [automakers].”

Automakers plural. But my money is that Tesla will be first out of the gate.

Links:
Home - Linear Labs

The model 3 motor is easier to cool and has a small size compared to everything else out there. It is past 95% average efficiency. This motor would probably weigh more and be harder to cool and not make a 1 or 2 percent gain worth it. The only place for it might be the semi if it was more efficient. There the efficiency might offset a lot of weight of battery.

 

[deffu]

Near Tesla Fremont factory today.

 

[Thekiwi]

JPR007 on Twitter

Third Row Podcast on Twitter

Does that mean Waymo is getting out of self-driving cars? Sounds like it to me.

View attachment 519537 [

Just sounds like they are taking the normal Google route: Licensing their tech to OEMs who can't build it themselves. That way they might end up the android/windows of the self-driving world, with every vendor using their solution, except for the one or two who roll their own solution (like Tesla). It is not a stupid strategy, especially as they don't have any production capacity to make cars.

 

[LJS22]

Near Tesla Fremont factory today.

I’m excited to see the breakdown of Model Y. The manufacturing process seems too easy for Tesla. It appears we have seen model Y’s just getting pumped out at an incredible pace.

Sandy is sure to be pleased with the improvements over the model 3

 

[powertoold]

Near Tesla Fremont factory today.

Impressive build quality judging by the panel gaps

 

[Thekiwi]

Initially deliveries were supposed to start
US: Fall 2020
EU: Early 2021

Tesla have been able to move up production(and maybe ramp) by 6-9months for US production. If the same applies to EU production, I was hoping that a few ships of Model Y will leave Freemont in July and arrive in August for a late summer delivery. If Giga Berlin is 15months(as some rumors said) away I assume the first batches of Model Y in Europe will be made in US, so it would make sense to start sooner rather than later. Let the early adoptors create a demand that Giga Berlin can fulfill.

Imo Tesla should start shipping a few Model Y Performance FSD White seats, FCA-credit high margins Model Y to Europe, let customers know that if they don’t want to wait a few months like initially planned, that is their only shortcut for now. These can give test rides and drive around and look awesome and will increase demand for Giga Berlin cars!

The "EU deliveries" date of 2021 is highly likely to be based on the GigaBerlin factory coming online (The first phase of the factory is for Model Y). I doubt Tesla ever intends to ship an EU model Y from the USA, given Elon's comments on the 3rd row podcast about how stupid it is in the long term to ship between continents (although it has that option this year in the case of a bad recession).

 

[Prime_Number]

Curious to see it the stress in the oil markets somehow leads to a reduction in TSLA shorting.

Obviously a million moving parts in flux out there in the financial markets these days, but one would think that shorting TSLA might be low on the priority list for any entity when financially stressed.

An imperfect experiment ?

 

[MABMAB]

When do non US markets open for Monday and how are they looking?

 

[lklundin]

When do non US markets open for Monday and how are they looking?

A tiny but actual data-point is that at the end of today's (!) trading session at the small, German market maker Lang & Schwarz, the bid - ask for TSLA was:
604.1 - 608.2 (€)
- with most recent trade (8 shares...) at 608.1€,

Tesla Inc. Aktie | Aktienkurs | Chart | A1CX3T | US88160R1014

 

[mrdoubleb]

When do non US markets open for Monday and how are they looking?

Asian Stock Markets - CNNMoney

 

[CorneliusXX]

Gonna say nope.

They compare their performance to a permanent magnet motor. The Tesla model 3 style is beyond that. Tesla efficiency is already over 90%, the claimed 10% range increase would put them at 99%. (Actually not, since this does not impact the rest of the losses in the vehicle, so even going from 90 to 100% motor efficiency would not get you 10% more range).

Roadster is trimotor, not quad.

More torque at low speed is a matter of stator winding count, and trades off back EMF at higher speeds. Which they address by adding mechanical induced field weakening.

What is the cooling system for the enclosed stator?

Tesla does not use or need a boost converter stage to drive their motor. The high voltage pack only needs a buck converter stage to drive the motor. (Which also acts as a boost stage in regen)

Judging solely by the chart in their video it looks like they are benchmarking against Tesla without specifically saying Tesla.

The three technologies they are competing against include Tesla's primary motor tech.

That said, I doubt Tesla would let any company get away with making a motor that has 5x the power density per Kg and is 1/3 the cost per kW without buying them. Something doesn't stack up.

 

[kengchang]

Some interesting permit, looks like Model Y line is mostly done with the fire alarm installation. South Paint is in the final phase?

Tesla - 4.5 Expansion
Civil sets that include site improvements and foundations

F19-0126-B Tesla - South Paint Automation DURR

Mechanical installation drawings for: master ecopaint & sealer robot zones; interior seam sealer robot zone; LASD robot zone; underbody sealer robot zone.

F19-0126-C - Tesla South Paint Process Equipment

DURR process equipment drawings: Sealer system; spray booth; ventilation systems & ductwork; electrical power; abatement.

 

[Mike Smith]

Adam Jonas said:
(Aug 2018) Waymo is worth $175B and Tesla is worth $35B

In reality:
(Mar 2020) Waymo is worth $35B and Tesla is worth $150B

People pay him money for this.

 

[Dreadnought]

That said, I doubt Tesla would let any company get away with making a motor that has 5x the power density per Kg and is 1/3 the cost per kW without buying them. Something doesn't stack up.

The y-axis is $/kw. Cost density as label is misleading; it's actually the inverse.