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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
Buckminster
Well-Known Member
Early results from poll:
What is the most important Tesla product/revenue stream that the public haven't even heard of?
This poll will close on Mar 11, 2020 at 9:48 PM.
What is the most important Tesla product/revenue stream that the public haven't even heard of?
This poll will close on Mar 11, 2020 at 9:48 PM.
Just saw this BBC news report about quarantining 16 million people in Italy. Markets are going to be down Monday.
Northern Italy quarantines 16 million people
Northern Italy quarantines 16 million people
I’m thinking Tesla Energy — batteries/Solar/PowerWall. Not sure the Roof will be a big mover yet. More limited customer base. I think most people know that Teslas cars run off a battery pack but don’t think beyond that. I think that for the moment will be the unexpected surprised for the uninformed.
Off course you’re correct. Sadly kills my weak Pulp Fiction joke.
Just wanted to share that I have never felt this bullish as I do now.
Model Y is coming earlier than expected, it is half the price as the BMW X5M/X6M while having same range/cargo/acceleration and better handling(due to lower centre of gravity), safety, real infotainment, autopilot etc. It is just a better car and it might take a time for people realize this, but as it is people will gravitate towards it like crazy. I hope I will get mine to Europe by summer so I can drive it around and help inform people of its existance. It is the car US/Europe/China has been waiting for. As production of it ramps, its demand will ramp. And it will kill profits for the competition, some of them will go bankrupt further decreasing competition and thus increasing demand.
Ramp is going great, Model Y deliveries in Q1, Shanghai Phase 3(Model Y) is going up faster than Phase 1(Model 3) was, so I would not be surprised if they start production of MIC Y in 2020. With or without FSD margins should be crazy for Model Y, while also increasing margins for 3, S and X. Model 3 is ramping in China, 5k/week goal from July, that is 18weeks of 5k/week = 90k for Aug-Dec plus some for Jan->July, likely 100k for the year in China. I thought 550k for the year, now I am beginning to think 650k for 2020.
Gigaberlin looks like it’s going well and Tesla has figured out how to copypaste their production lines, I expect Model Y MIG to start being delivered by Q2 2021. Would not be surprised if Tesla for 2021 makes 600k cars in Freemont, 400k in China, 100k in Germany and 100k in Texas for 2021, that is 1.2M cars. By then with FSD finally being ready(robotaxi not) I expect >$10B in FCF for 2021 and todays market cap to seem silly.
Battery supply will be solved, Tesla will buy batteries from everyone, Samsung, CATL etc will ramp to meet China demand and at some point Tesla will add their own to the mix.
FSD I still trust that Karpathy, Keller, Elon, Bannon etc knows what they are doing and their 3D auto labelling will produce insane datasets and mojo and deepscale will train crazy networks that will have great software around then and fully make use HW3 sometime this year. FSD will be another selling point and further improve margins. And at some point, in 2-5years I think the robotaxi will activate. Waymo might have had a few years head start, but the number i-Pace they will have on the road will not be huge by then anyway and Tesla will win by scale and better design.
Model Y is coming earlier than expected, it is half the price as the BMW X5M/X6M while having same range/cargo/acceleration and better handling(due to lower centre of gravity), safety, real infotainment, autopilot etc. It is just a better car and it might take a time for people realize this, but as it is people will gravitate towards it like crazy. I hope I will get mine to Europe by summer so I can drive it around and help inform people of its existance. It is the car US/Europe/China has been waiting for. As production of it ramps, its demand will ramp. And it will kill profits for the competition, some of them will go bankrupt further decreasing competition and thus increasing demand.
Ramp is going great, Model Y deliveries in Q1, Shanghai Phase 3(Model Y) is going up faster than Phase 1(Model 3) was, so I would not be surprised if they start production of MIC Y in 2020. With or without FSD margins should be crazy for Model Y, while also increasing margins for 3, S and X. Model 3 is ramping in China, 5k/week goal from July, that is 18weeks of 5k/week = 90k for Aug-Dec plus some for Jan->July, likely 100k for the year in China. I thought 550k for the year, now I am beginning to think 650k for 2020.
Gigaberlin looks like it’s going well and Tesla has figured out how to copypaste their production lines, I expect Model Y MIG to start being delivered by Q2 2021. Would not be surprised if Tesla for 2021 makes 600k cars in Freemont, 400k in China, 100k in Germany and 100k in Texas for 2021, that is 1.2M cars. By then with FSD finally being ready(robotaxi not) I expect >$10B in FCF for 2021 and todays market cap to seem silly.
Battery supply will be solved, Tesla will buy batteries from everyone, Samsung, CATL etc will ramp to meet China demand and at some point Tesla will add their own to the mix.
FSD I still trust that Karpathy, Keller, Elon, Bannon etc knows what they are doing and their 3D auto labelling will produce insane datasets and mojo and deepscale will train crazy networks that will have great software around then and fully make use HW3 sometime this year. FSD will be another selling point and further improve margins. And at some point, in 2-5years I think the robotaxi will activate. Waymo might have had a few years head start, but the number i-Pace they will have on the road will not be huge by then anyway and Tesla will win by scale and better design.
Fact Checking
Well-Known Member
View attachment 519347 View attachment 519348[/QUOTE]
The official dimensions of the Model Y appear to have leaked:
It's wider than the speculation you cited, 78" with folded mirrors, which is similar to the BMW X5 and X6 of 79.5", length is similar (97%) and cabin height and comfort is comparable too if we ignore the tall ground clearance (8.7") of the BMW X-series, while the Model Y is between 6"-7" according to most estimates.
BMW could mostly ignore the Model X I believe due to its high price, but with the Model 3 drying up BMW 3-series and 4-series demand, and the Model Y probably replacing a lot of X-series sales BMW is in a world of hurt I think...
The official dimensions of the Model Y appear to have leaked:
It's wider than the speculation you cited, 78" with folded mirrors, which is similar to the BMW X5 and X6 of 79.5", length is similar (97%) and cabin height and comfort is comparable too if we ignore the tall ground clearance (8.7") of the BMW X-series, while the Model Y is between 6"-7" according to most estimates.
BMW could mostly ignore the Model X I believe due to its high price, but with the Model 3 drying up BMW 3-series and 4-series demand, and the Model Y probably replacing a lot of X-series sales BMW is in a world of hurt I think...
Is that the 520 floating bridge? Cool sighting! I bet that car tailing behind him is his security detail.
You didn't wave at him with the two-handed Tesla AP wave?
Nah that's not his security detail. It's a permanent backup car whenever he drives his Taycan to ease his range anxiety!
Same reported for Japan and Brazil automakers.
Brazil auto production may stop in April
Khaleej News / Nasdaq News
Brazil carmakers might have to suspend production in April due to a lack of parts from China, where the coronavirus outbreak has hit suppliers and affected global trade, automakers’ association Anfavea said on Friday.
“Is there a risk of stopping production in April? There is,” Anfavea’s president Luiz Carlos Moraes said. China is Brazil’s main supplier of foreign auto parts, accounting for 32 per cent of all imported parts.
Japan Today -
Nissan Motor Co has temporarily suspended output at its plants in Tochigi and Fukuoka prefectures, saying required parts could not be shipped out from a Chinese port.
Honda Motor will reduce vehicle output at two of its domestic plants in Saitama Prefecture for a week or so in March due to concerns about parts supply from China, sources close to the matter said Monday.
Honda has maintained its production levels by increasing output of models for which the company had enough parts in stock.
Suzuki Motor Co and Mazda Motor Corp have also faced difficulties in procuring parts from China and have delayed production of some models.
With the auto industry Japan's largest manufacturing sector, making up 19.0 percent of total shipments by manufacturers and employing 5.46 million people in the country, the government is anxious about the supply chain trouble but has no immediate remedy to offer.
With an Olympic swimming pool in front?
Yes. I am unsure what it means for trading, but between now and March 29 the markets in EU (Frankfurt) and USA no longer close at the same time.
When the markets close in the USA, Frankfurt remains open one more hour
- and when the US pre-market session opens, Frankfurt will have been open only one hour, instead of the usual two hours.
Dreadnought
Member
Shale oil producers are in deep. To recycle a TSLA shorts phrase, they're gonna lose money on every barrel sold at prices below $45 (breakeven price per Falling prices are hitting US shale oil producers - Stockhead ). They are loaded with debt and the valuation of their assets just plummeted and - WAG - won't recover any time soon, even when Covid panic ebbs off. Hopefully, this will put an end to freakin' fracking for good.
Fear not: Short term, people will buy a Tesla because it's the better car. Once OXY and the likes have been wiped out, a cycle of high oil prices will follow, making it so blatantly obvious that BEVs are cheaper to run that even WS will recognise.
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As I wrote, the source is "I heard it on the radio, Bayern 5". In the meantime, I was able to find this:
Kredite und Kurzarbeitergeld - Große Koalition berät über Wirtschaftshilfen wegen Coronavirus
The interesting quote (from an interview with Walter-Borjans[*]) regarding the German industry is:
"Unternehmen, die von Lieferketten nach China abhängig seien, könnten schnell in Liquiditätsprobleme kommen. Dafür müsse der Staat Instrumente bereit halten."
In my rather literal translation:
"Companies that depend on supply chains from China could quickly get into liquidity problems. For this the State must keep instruments ready".
In this light it is particularly impressive that GF3 is accelerating its output - but also subject to some concern regarding its continued output.
[*]Norbert Walter-Borjans - Wikipedia
Will that mean that MM can wait even longer to replace stock they created short, thus expanding the wave of manipulative drops from once per 13 days to maybe once a month? That'd be great, thanks!
Yes, lot's of people in the EU are looking forward to the Y.
But do you have any reason to expect to take delivery this summer - or did you mean summer of 2021? Production start at GF4 is planned for (no earlier than) July 2021.
BTW, I also feel super bullish on Tesla - in the sense that because of all the recent good news, I still feel that at the current SP it is undervalued.
I write about the benefit Tesla will have in situations of disrupted supply chains since a while and want to underline that the vertical integrated structure of the company is a big and underestimated plus. It makes a huge difference if you are under control of your own parts supply or not. Of course Tesla does source parts too and is not immune against disruptions but more immune versus for instance the German auto industry that is heavily horizontal integrated.
Federal support for companies that initiate short work as well as eased conditions for loans and credits is a helpful measure and should avoid companies getting too quickly into a liquidity crunch.
I did watch the rising numbers in Italy who are BTW still not exponential but linear, with concern and its good to see that they put more strict measures in place now to get it under control. We have seen it working in China with as of this minute only 50 new cases today that has done a great job in a situation where I had doubts they can control it further and at all. So this is all good and welcome.
That post has since been removed, I am unsure how to interpret that.
I have a strong feeling that Elon Musk would like to be take part in the first Model Y deliveries, so March 11 is consistent with Musk's confirming his presence at GF4 around March 15.
Here's a crazy idea:
The first Model Y deliveries will take place in Fremont with Elon Musk remote piloting (i.e. using summon) each car to its new owner, while the whole thing is being streamed.
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