Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[jerry33]

Yeah, had a friend tell me that he was thinking to buy a Kona. I recommended he at least test-drive a Model 3. Obviously he bought the M3 (LR), and adores it.

In other news - last week I was a passenger in an AMG MB (shooting-break, one year old). I have to admit that the car was really well made, very solid, super seats, you could feel the handling was tight, brakes were good, obviously the acceleration was a bit lacking. But what struck me the most is that the guy was using Google Maps navigation on his phone rather than the built-in because "it's not very good, doesn't take into account traffic unless you pay for it, plus I don't really know how to use it, in fact I can't really work out the electrics at all". Indeed, it was up to me to work out how to connect my iPhone through BT in order to stream some music. Couldn't work it out at all, then one of the passengers in the back pointed out a joystick/knob device on the centre-console, which I had missed. Even after that it just wasn't at all intuitive.

The flip-phone equivalent where you have to look up how to do things in the manual if you want to do more than just make a call. Over a decade behind the times.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Hot-linking images like this does only work for those who visited Teslarati in the last few hours. I did not so I just see the text IMG in square brackets.

Uploading the image to TMC solves this issue.

Lol, totally missing the point. The Teslarati author choose to use this months-old image as the Hero image for their article (without caption, or explanation). If I upload to TMC, that removes all the evidence (or clues).

Now the 2nd question. Did you follow the link I provided?

But I'll leave the 3rd question for now, in case you discover that too.

Cheers!

 

[KarenRei]

I'd personally go with somewhere in the 2 to 2,5k/wk range.

ED: Just noticed the typo. I'd go with something in the 2,5k-3k range averaged across the rest of the month. I don't expect an average of 3,5k for the rest of the month... although it is in the range of possibilities, given how GF3 keeps overperforming even bullish expectations.

 

[Unpilot]

I'm going with the esteemed analyst aDam jOnas so Q1 is between 1 and 81,000,000.
Don't try and out analyse smart folks like him...he works for a major institution by gawd/S

 

[Pezpunk]

I'm going with the esteemed analyst aDam jOnas so Q1 is between 1 and 81,000,000.
Don't try and out analyse smart folks like him...he works for a major institution by gawd/S


View attachment 520213

81,000,001 secured.

 

[Christine69420]

In a sane media world, the fact that a single western car company has just made its ONE MILLIONTH electric car would be a major news item that could be linked in to concerns about climate change but...nah.

Articles about Tesla just sold it's 50,000th car in Norway are published on several Norwegian sites. But it took a few days before they came. Perhaps US media need some more time?

Lol, totally missing the point. The Teslarati author choose to use this months-old image as the Hero image for their article (without caption, or explanation). If I upload to TMC, that removes all the evidence (or clues).

Now the 2nd question. Did you follow the link I provided?

But I'll leave the 3rd question for now, in case you discover that too.

Cheers!

View attachment 520210

Yes I miss the point a lot. Probably shouldn't have stopped drinking coffee in the morning,
And yes, did follow the link.

 

[jbcarioca]

Wait a second, I thought you were a car manufacturing guy.

You were also an epidemiologist?!

I used to think I was the shitake in high school as I was the best in math.

Then I went to Neroden's college and other students were writing math proofs on the board outdoing the professor.

Then I went to Silicon Valley where everyone has a PhD or their own startup.

But was that the worst? No sir, along come TMC forum where apparently the most intelligent, insanely successful people hang out.

This place is an anomaly!

or a simulation...

OK, I am nearly 75 years old. During my life I have had several careers, some seemingly disparate. After my first graduate school stint I did work as an epidemiologist for the CDC, seconded to the NYC Department of Health. That same statistical base coupled with a Social Psychology degree in small group dynamics led to distinct careers as a banker (started the first Islamic Women's Bank (in Yemen) after doing my PhD thesis on the subject, then focussed on Iran. Later I spent a long time doing auto industry work, started a charter airline, and other stuff. For the last decade I have been doing investment management based in Rio de Janeiro. The location is to spend time with family after almost all my life wandering the world.

Based on my personal knowledge of other people on this forum I suspect my experiences are not really unusual among old early adopters. FWIW, I think we have an exceptional group here, not least because when one of us makes a mistake somebody is ready to correct the error. That happens with me quite often, which reassures me that it is still easy to learn more.

I think a very wide experience and an acute sense of humility are needed to invest successfully, especially with technological innovation.

In context after 9/11 I was sorely tempted to move to cash, but I saw no place of refuge, so I just rode it out. Ditto with this one. I do remember when the 1973 events happened and I stupidly sold everything. Luckily for me I was on my way to spending the remainder of that decade in the Gulf States, Iran, Saudi etc.

All of that is off-topic. However that is why I tend to under-react to euphoria or panic. Calm rational thought produces less risky behavior. (true in epidemiology and investment management)

 

[avoigt]

I've been looking to add some more TSLA, but I am not pulling the trigger yet. I think I can get more for the same money, because I don't think - what you're saying - that most negative news has been 'priced in now'.

We've not yet seen the height of the virus scare in the US, which will probably come within a few weeks as the number of cases explodes. The measures which the states and federal government will have to take as a result of this will have significant effects on the local economy.

And we've not yet seen the full impact of the situation in China on supply chains, which is lagging. For my own company (food supplements) I am seeing an extreme shortage of ingredients, which will soon result in important products being sold out, with no chance of getting new ones soon as delivery times which used to be weeks have now become months or even half a year. I don't use many ingredients from China, but those companies using Chinese ingredients (which are no longer available) are raiding the European and American suppliers of my ingredients.

I think many companies in the world are facing shortages, but are not telling the market about it yet. And even though I believe Tesla is reasonably well protected against supply chain disruptions, because of their vertical integration, I'm afraid they are not completely immune to it. And it takes only one of hundreds of parts to shut down a production line.

That is why I wait to pull the trigger. I may be wrong and may miss a good buying opportunity, but then my current stocks will go up so I'm still good.

Shortages in different variations will happen without a doubt. However we have seen China building entire hospitals in a few weeks and since travel bans and other restrictions are lifted with very low new cases numbers we can expect they get fast back to work.

With respect to your market timing an important factor to consider is that the level of fear and selling pressure does not go hand in hand over time with the impact on each persons life after peak fear has been left behind. Once people get emotionally prepared for a very bad outcome like it looks like to happen in many parts of the world including the US, people don't wait with selling stock for the moment they have cases nearby in their neighborhood.

While you have at start of any crises with many unknowns an overreacting where people sell because they don't know, at a later point panic is gone and with it one factor of why they sold.

No investment advice but could be an important point to consider for your timing.

Also, once the panic is gone many people will realize that even if a recession would come to be invested in TSLA is meaningful for several reasons.

While all other automaker have weak demand already and more weakness will hurt them very much in combination with a weak balance sheet a Tesla looks pretty bright since a weakness in demand will not even be felt as the today demand is above everything they can deliver for years. Supply will get cheaper in a recession and Teslas cash position is strong. There won't be many stocks out there with that combination therefore I expect buy pressure.

 

[berryja]

Imma jus leave dis here.

that's some good CGI wot?

Looks like a bunch of key fobs.

 

[lklundin]

With exception of a few outliers the typical poster here is long TSLA. From my post the other day, it seems that there is quite a spread on what types of investments people here feel are acceptable. So for our common entertainment while we wait for the (US) markets to open, I created a little poll, where everyone is invited to indicate what types of investments they currently have:

Investment types

- any missing poll options just a sign that I have no clue what I am talking about...

 

[jbcarioca]

and btw, this is nothing like 2008 when the entire banking and financial system was close to blowing up...
I am smelling some fear in the streets now, so a bottom is within distance now.
...
But certain sub-sectors in oil will not recover and have to go bankrupt soon...watch for that.

Keep in mind that the US debt levels are unprecedented, and the deficit is proportional only to the peak of World War II. In this environment adding to the deficit will have short term benefit. The US has had eleven years of continuing growth. The odds that growth can continue unimpeded are low.

That said, from a global perspective renewable energy and BEV's will continue to grow and thrive. In several other sectors the odds favor significant correction.

Note that Tesla during Covid-19 now accounts for 30% of China BEV sales. No sign of saturation.

As with every recession anywhere, some sectors do well. This time we can be assured that the same trends already in evidence will be exaggerated. Geriatric care, public sanitation, public health will all globally thrive, with some exceptions, of course.

China has had clear skys for the first time in decades. They'll work hard to keep them clear.

Events like this one DO change societal priorities. That, in turn, produces winners and losers. The old saw about rising seas raising all boats does NOT translate well to societal recovery.

Major changes happened in response to 2008. By 2018 several major governments forgot what had been learned and sowed the seeds for serious problems. Deciding to cut the budget for WHO and USPHS (CDC) are examples of ignorance that harms society. We are nowhere near 'out of the woods'.

 

[vikings123]

More news from China, nothing this forum did not know already.

Tesla plans to expand car parts production capacity in Shanghai: government document

 

[JusRelax]

For anyone that believes that TSLA has already priced in the news about the millionth car produced (including implications of how high production numbers in Q1 2020 will be), I just want to state that I believe it has not been priced in at all yet:

1. No news on this from any major news source
2. Currently, I see TSLA up 9.7% in premarket. ENPH, another big loser yesterday, is up 9.82% in premarket.

IMO, TSLA up ~60 points in premarket is simply making up some of the ground it lost yesterday like the rest of the market.

Here's my not advice: If we consider Tesla-specific factors, now would be a great time to buy. However, macro factors of course cloud this judgment and can still cause the overall market to drop significantly from here.

 

[Fobble]

Imma jus leave dis here.

that's some good CGI wot?

Oh oh, Tesla has no demand in China. The factory lot is filled with unsold M3 ...

 

[JusRelax]

These headlines are laughable:

Can someone tell me why this story is about Nio's sales "declining far less than the overall market", when the news should be about how Tesla's sales INCREASED? LOL.

 

[Pezpunk]

marketwatch glitch showed me a $140 drop at open, first time as a "do nothing long" i actually felt anxiety about the price. luckily it was not a thing. (knock on wood)

 

[X Fan]

Airlines have never been more sanitary .. and planes empty ... flew this weekend ... not a single hacker

Wish that was true.

Biogen is on lockdown in Boston, RDU and one other location. This is a byproduct of a conference in Boston whereby someone brought the disease ( California based employee? ) and therefore 23 of 135 are known to date to have tested positive.

One of the employees got sick in the 1st but then proceeded to work in RDU from 2-5 and then flew back to Indiana while pretty sick.

Don’t know Biogen’s “work pressure” but clearly this employee should have stayed away. This ties to Karen’s worry that US employees will go to work while sick (my older son is a scientist and they also have “work pressure” to come in despite being sick).

Senior Mgt/HR have their head in the sand in this one.

Also, a couple of British citizens are “locked down” in Vietnam due to getting virus form someone who was on the flight (two rows ahead) and just had travelled from Milan.

Conclusion: still a risk to fly.

 

[ByeByeJohnny]

marketwatch glitch showed me a $140 drop at open, first time as a "do nothing long" i actually felt anxiety about the price. luckily it was not a thing. (knock on wood)

This happens on Marketwatch occasionally during the first few minutes of trading almost every day. Yes, it's scared me a few times as well.

 

[X Fan]

Am I getting it right that you are still flying?

haha, last one for a while.

Fortunately, sat in first and the guy next to me knocked down 4 screwdrivers ( I guess since vodka of a disinfectant; lol ). Lady behind me wiped down every part of her seat & no drink nor bathroom visit so “all good” I suppose.

 

[X Fan]

Corporate bonds or government bonds? The Fed won't let dollar treasury debt default, so they must have meant corporate bonds, right?

US Treasury.

I believe U.K. yields went below zero today and some Euro bonds have traded below zero previously.

This is uncharted times.