Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[lafrisbee]

From the other answers, it seems LG and CATL will use their own chemistries.

But I wonder, I would not be surprised if a different arrangement is made - for it is not just a matter of range (which can be fixed by having a larger but less energy dense battery), but there is also speed of charging, number of discharges before capacity drops significantly and perhaps other properties where the Tesla/Panasonic battery excells.

Battery day really can not come soon enough

I gave this some thought before I read your post. And "my thought" goes in the other direction from your own. When I read about the new deals for batteries in such quantities I came to the decision that the battery providers would produce "Tesla/Maxell/Hibar batteries.
because if they don't then the "cars" will Not be Teslas when the common phrase "It's the batteries, Stupid." is weighed in.
Also the purchase of those Mazell and Hibar in relation to the timing of these new battery deals makes me believe Elon is going to incorporate the benefits of Maxell and Hibar as he "moves fast."

 

[MarcoRP]

Tesla’s first Supercharger in Bulgaria is operational and both of their Superchargers in Serbia are undergoing final testing!!!

Plovdiv, Bulgaria

Belgrade, Serbia

 

[gerebgraus]

Lol, I bow to your superior knowledge of lithium ion chemisty. Or, you could read Dr. Jeff Dahn's latest paper on the subject:

Zhang, N., Zaker, N., Li, H., Liu, A., Inglis, J., Jing, L., ... & Dahn, J. R. (2019). Cobalt-Free Nickel-Rich Positive Electrode Materials with a Core–Shell Structure. Chemistry of Materials, 31(24), 10150-10160.

"Core–shell or concentration-gradient structures have been reported to improve the structural and chemical stability of Ni-rich electrode materials; however, a core–shell or concentration-gradient structure for cobalt-free systems has not yet been studied. In this work Ni(OH)2 core:Ni0.83M0.17(OH)2 shell precursors (M = Mg, Al, and Mn) were prepared in a continuously stirred tank reactor. Homogeneous Ni0.95M0.05(OH)2 precursors having the same average composition as the core–shell precursors were also prepared. Cross-sectional scanning electron microscopy verified the core–shell structure of all the core–shell precursors. During sintering at about 700 °C to make the lithiated oxides, interdiffusion of the M atoms between core and shell occurred with Mg showing a uniform distribution in the particles while Al and Mn still showed a higher concentration at the particle surfaces. The Mn-containing materials …"​

Come on. You were sarcastic and dead wrong at the same time. You should not just rate funny the post that points out your error. Ideally, you should apologize but at least mark "like" the post pointed it out. This is inappropriate.

 

[adiggs]

The other thing - worldwide economic activity is estimated to have shrunk 15%, or to run at 85% of pre-Depression levels. For comparison, 08/09 was about a 1% drop in economic activity.

Meant to include this - I consider a worldwide drop in economic activity of 15% to be much more likely than 1% over the coming 3-15 months. I don't have an opinion or guess today at how quickly we'll get back to today's economic activity level.

I figure the smart money would take the under 15% rather than the over. What's freaky to me is that I'm not confident enough that I'd bet either side of an over/under bet on the economic activity hit being 15%.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Meanwhile, TSLA is outperfoming the macros today (2 x QQQ)

Cheers!

 

[lafrisbee]

Boeing saga is sad... The acolytes of the GE/Welch school of business are destroying yet another storied American industrial company..

SpaceX is worth $36b now.... I wouldn't be surprised for it to pass Boeing in market cap sometime next year...

I agree the "Boeing saga" is sad. But Boeing was not the company you think from the 1990's on. Their "good fortune" since then was only because they were politically entrenched.
I had inside information from the source that when Airbus was awarded the Tanker contract AIRBUS was the prohibitive choice based on being far superior in EVERY metric. And when I broached the source about the legal wrangling by Boeing to get the decision overturned my source was very sure that it could not be. And this man was never wrong when it came to Military financials. And then it was. And that man no longer thought of the US Government of trustworthy because of the decision.
Boeing focus changed to being a political company instead of an Aviation Industry leader.

 

[jerry33]

Meant to include this - I consider a worldwide drop in economic activity of 15% to be much more likely than 1% over the coming 3-15 months. I don't have an opinion or guess today at how quickly we'll get back to today's economic activity level.

I figure the smart money would take the under 15% rather than the over. What's freaky to me is that I'm not confident enough that I'd bet either side of an over/under bet on the economic activity hit being 15%.

Doing my bit. Put in an order for an X with FSD this morning.

 

[LN1_Casey]

With all the talk of the panic selling, and fears, and Coronavirus, I just want to point out that my buy order set for 600 still hasn't popped. If TSLA keeps playing touch an go with the 640's, it doesn't appear likely to, (un?)fortunately.

The NASDAQ is down to about their current level back in October--when we were in the mid 200's. Tesla has great forecast of Q1 results, despite everything. I think we'll be more than fine. Maybe not great in the immediate short term, but I've no doubt we'll quickly recover or overcome any of this recent drag down.

HODL, people, HODL.

 

[ninpb]

Doing my bit. Put in an order for an X with FSD this morning.

Lexus dealer:

 

[lklundin]

CNBC is claiming that Tesla warned of an earnings hit. That's just a flat out lie. They're not even trying to hide their bias anymore.

Coronavirus fallout: At least 150 companies have warned of earnings hit

furthermore, the list has hardly any traditional auto makers, I see only Toyota and Honda, no Germans, no (traditional) US...

 

[Rb48888]

How could it be exercised before this blows over?

Sorry I don't use the best words sometimes.

To your point, the buyer exercising the Put would occur AS the macro situation blows over, not before.

Imho it's likely that we'll head back up without me securing these additional shares, but I'm ok with having a little extra cash going into the elections too.

If I'm wrong, and there's an extended opportunity to purchase shares for less than $390, then I'll be buying with the other half of my fresh powder, and anything else that isn't bolted down too.

My core position is long and strong, so I feel ok whether I get the shares or not.

Did I miss your point? Because I'm happy to learn!

 

[Mike Smith]

Meanwhile, TSLA is outperfoming the macros today (2 x QQQ)

View attachment 520637
Cheers!

Some big investors have figured it out - it was questionable whether the OEMs could afford to develop EVs while their ICE business dried up. Add a recession on top and they have no chance. The competition is not coming. They're all going to have to buy/license powertrains and batteries from Tesla or die. And then there's Tesla's lead in autonomy..

 

[adiggs]

With all the talk of the panic selling, and fears, and Coronavirus, I just want to point out that my buy order set for 600 still hasn't popped. If TSLA keeps playing touch an go with the 640's, it doesn't appear likely to, (un?)fortunately.

The NASDAQ is down to about their current level back in October--when we were in the mid 200's. Tesla has great forecast of Q1 results, despite everything. I think we'll be more than fine. Maybe not great in the immediate short term, but I've no doubt we'll quickly recover or overcome any of this recent drag down.

HODL, people, HODL.

Worth noting - despite how alarmist some of my other views on the economic hit may seem, I don't even need to HODL with TSLA. I'm just holding as normal. Same shares I had somewhere in the middle 350's (last time we bought), that went down to $1xx and then up to $9xx. (There's no "dear life" needed for me).

I've moved all that market diversification in S&P 500 index etc.. into cash, and I'm more worried about the quality of the cash investment than I am in TSLA (maybe a slight exaggeration; not nearly as much of one as it should be). And yes, I do expect TSLA to trade down into the $4xx range before it gets to $9xx again (for what that's worth - I'm a good contrary indicator on stock direction, price, etc.. in the "short" term - say 6 months or less).

I think a move of the oceans of cash like mine into TSLA over 2020 is very possible, as a flight to safety. Certainly anybody that wants to be invested in the auto industry - I can easily see TSLA increasingly viewed as the safe Auto industry investment.

 

[AudubonB]

I think it a supremely worthwhile exercise to understand the fundamental similarities and differences between
(1) GF4 and (a) Brandenburg State's legislative and regulatory environment juxtaposed with those of the German and EU ones;

and

(2)GFCentralUS and (a) those of that state's (and city/county etc) vs US Federal laws and regulations.

It is a mind-numbing and hair-pulling exercise but first, someone/s at Tesla must be (had better be!) doing it. I can think of a number of this forum's participants who could take a fair stab at it, although without knowing if we're considering Memphis or Indianapolis or Tulsa or Austin, the effort can not be fully completed.

 

[Mike Smith]

furthermore, the list has hardly any traditional auto makers, I see only Toyota and Honda, no Germans, no (traditional) US...

They're CNBC's biggest advertisers. I've always thought it would be smart for Tesla to run some ads on CNBC just so they would stop their attacks. It has cost Tesla a lot more in their equity raises than it would have to pay for some ads.

 

[powertoold]

It has cost Tesla a lot more in their equity raises than it would have to pay for some ads.

Who cares (out of principle)

 

[capster]

The Central States are typically considered to consist of North Dakota, South Dakota, Nebraska, Kansas, Oklahoma, Texas, Minnesota, Iowa, Missouri, Arkansas, Louisiana, Wisconsin, and Illinois.

Elon used lower case "central." Here in California that could mean anywhere between I-5 and I-95. /joke

 

[AudubonB]

Lol, I bow to your superior knowledge of lithium ion chemisty. Or, you could read Dr. Jeff Dahn's latest paper on the subject:

Zhang, N., Zaker, N., Li, H., Liu, A., Inglis, J., Jing, L., ... & Dahn, J. R. (2019). Cobalt-Free Nickel-Rich Positive Electrode Materials with a Core–Shell Structure. Chemistry of Materials, 31(24), 10150-10160.

"Core–shell or concentration-gradient structures have been reported to improve the structural and chemical stability of Ni-rich electrode materials; however, a core–shell or concentration-gradient structure for cobalt-free systems has not yet been studied. In this work Ni(OH)2 core:Ni0.83M0.17(OH)2 shell precursors (M = Mg, Al, and Mn) were prepared in a continuously stirred tank reactor. Homogeneous Ni0.95M0.05(OH)2 precursors having the same average composition as the core–shell precursors were also prepared. Cross-sectional scanning electron microscopy verified the core–shell structure of all the core–shell precursors. During sintering at about 700 °C to make the lithiated oxides, interdiffusion of the M atoms between core and shell occurred with Mg showing a uniform distribution in the particles while Al and Mn still showed a higher concentration at the particle surfaces. The Mn-containing materials …"​

Why are you being smarmy? One just as easily can reference Dahn's (no longer available for viewing?) recent BC lecture where he could not have been more specific in stating the reference standard for "An Excellent Battery" - ie, one that exists in the real world, not as a laboratory experiment - is a cobalt-containing one.

 

[StealthP3D]

Some big investors have figured it out - it was questionable whether the OEMs could afford to develop EVs while their ICE business dried up. Add a recession on top and they have no chance. The competition is not coming. They're all going to have to buy/license powertrains and batteries from Tesla or die. And then there's Tesla's lead in autonomy..

You make it sound like licensing and/or buying powertrains or batteries from Tesla would prevent them from going bankrupt. I'm not sure it's that clear cut. Licesning or buying powertrains would still not give them competitive products and competitive prices to Tesla. The only way this would work for them is if auto demand remained so strong that people would pay more for inferior solutions rather than wait months or years for a Tesla. Simply bolting a body to a good skateboard does not mean the final result is also good nor does it imply it would be cost-effective or price competitive.

It's difficult to see the future but I think the most likely way this will play out is for the entire auto industry to shrink massively by 2028. Along with that, there will be some consolidation of the major OEM's, likely through the bankruptcy of the weakest ones. One or two of the big names will survive (and they might have acquired marketing rights to some of the failed brands). EV's will be cheaper on average than gas cars (inflation-adjusted) and there will be fewer overall sales (since EV's are more durable). Tesla will have at least 20% market share and their energy and energy storage businesses will be larger and more profitable than their auto division.

 

[mact3333]

Just undercut yesterdays low...IT bear confirmed now...we will see 7400 on the Naz soon...if this level doesn't hold, it won't be pretty...I favor it will hold and hope it holds...otherwise SPX 1300-1900 on the table.