Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[MC3OZ]

This idea just hit me. There is a notion floating around that Tesla can slow down expansion to cope with a recession. I think opposite. If Trump is done in term of reelection chance and Sanders/Biden gets elected, we will see a massive move toward electrification and the last think Tesla wants is a lack of production capacity, irrespective of short term demands.

I suggested Tesla could slow down if they needed to slow down, I'm not sure they need to.

For one thing they are planning on a 2nd US Model Y factory, which means they think Fremont can;t satisfy all US Model Y demand long term..

China doesn't concern me at all I think they are recovering at this stage and any drop in Tesla China deliveries was probably Q1 2020.

Coronavirus is going to have an out-sized impact on airlines, international travel and aircraft sales, some of the money that is not spent on international travel may be spend on domestic travel by car, a new car, shares or paying down debt.

Many countries will prop up airlines, the best bet to prop up the rest of the industry is encourage domestic travel, a lot of domestic holiday makers will choose to travel by car, perhaps in a new car or a hire car.

My thought at this stage is any negative impact on Tesla isn't likely to last long, perhaps 6-12 months...

If necessary Tesla can slightly slow down delaying some production ramps by 6-12 months, or better still find more ways of being capital efficient.

I still think Q1 financials may add to Tesla's cash balance or at worst not reduce it significantly..

Early reviews of Model Y are looking very promising, if Q1 earnings are reasonable, Model Y demand looks strong, China production and demand continues to grow and people have a more nuanced view of the impact of Coronavirus, then the future is looking better for Tesla.

If demand in China is solid, Model Y demand is solid and all other deliveries are tracking reasonably well, Tesla might not need to slow down at all.... but slowing down is a great insurance policy...

 

[Opus BC fan]

In describing longs, I think I am personally retiring the adjectives "weak" and "strong".
I am long because TSLA fits with my investing objectives (environmentally conscious, pro-social, aspirational etc...)
Holding my TSLA shares through this period of turmoil is my decision and nothing more.

I'm here to learn and understand. My time horizon and occupation allows me to be free of economic pressure.

The way I see it, deciding when to sell takes considerably more strength of conviction than I ever required to buy.
Nothing but respect here folks - with additional admiration for those that share their decisions with us so we can all learn.

 

[MC3OZ]

The times I was worried about Tesla are Model 3 ramp production hell and Q1 2019..
It is more worrying when Tesla is executing badly with good macros...
when Tesla is executing well with a bad macro environment, IMO they just need to make some adjustments and ride it out,.
,
For Cornavirus itself I see it is a short term 6-12 month event, the only concern is if it triggers a wider economic downturn, while plenty are worried, I can't see a chain of events with a long term impact on Tesla, 6 months of lower than normal demand is possible...but I don't see a longer term impact as likely at this stage.

If Tesla was an airline or was in the travel business I would be much more concerned... I can see a big short term impact and a longer lasting long term impact for those industries ... and I think that impact means more people doing driving holidays. for the next 6-12 months..

 

[MC3OZ]

In describing longs, I think I am personally retiring the adjectives "weak" and "strong".
I am long because TSLA fits with my investing objectives (environmentally conscious, pro-social, aspirational etc...)
Holding my TSLA shares through this period of turmoil is my decision and nothing more.

I'm here to learn and understand. My time horizon and occupation allows me to be free of economic pressure.

The way I see it, deciding when to sell takes considerably more strength of conviction than I ever required to buy.
Nothing but respect here folks - with additional admiration for those that share their decisions with us so we can all learn.

I never liked the terms "weak" or "strong", everyone's circumstances are different, and we are following a different set of plans..

IMO that diversity is part of the strength, I'm very happy knowing some cash is sitting on the sidelines, that was once invested in Tesla and may buy back in... that helps put a floor on the price...

I'm happy even though my time horizon is 5-10 years, and I am unlikely to be a seller at any price... I might be a buyer if the price gets very low and I can free up some cash which will involve convincing the wife to take a loss on another investment, to buy into Tesla.... my chances are not high... Apart from that, anything I may do would be very small scale....

My time horizon is set be the fact these are retirement funds and I don't have any debt... I also don't have any free cash...
Apart from possibly trying to convince the wife to invest in Tesla, I don't have any reason to change anything.

 

[shrspeedblade]

This has more to do with the Macros at large, but I bought a call and a little stock in Gilead Sciences $GILD about a week ago, if the trials go well with their antiviral remdesivir it could mean good things for the market at large plus $TSLA minus the manipulations, although I'm in the camp of we're-headed-for-recession for a while regardless. Watching it pretty closely for obvious reasons, so if I have any update I'll post it.

 

[30seconds]

Although I think Tesla is very undervalued here I do see a scenario where the factory is shutdown in the not so near future leading to another leg down.

However I do think Tesla is in very good shape to ride this out. Between cash on balance sheet, Shanghai GF and ModelY demand the company will be just fine with a temp shutdown of Fremont.

I’m buying some now and keeping some in reserve to see how next 2-3 weeks play out

 

[Dare]

Investing.com article

Oil's Future Doesn't Look Good

 

[generalenthu]

Here's my view on the action today and this week. We've been weaker than the indices and in my opinion there are 2 man reasons:

First as @TheTalkingMule pointed, everyone buying stocks the end of day, just bought indexes. There's no time to pick stocks. Index buying moves the stocks, not the other way round. In normal times people can be more deliberate and pick specific stocks and that moves the index. There's a theory that even during normal times, index buying distorts stock prices as more money is in passive indexes and active stock picking is becoming a lost art. I am partial to this theory. In any case Tesla is underrepresented and that hurt.

More importantly though, Tesla is heavily impacted by options in the name. Through this turmoil, options open interest remained super high across the spectrum.

This week, Monday opened super weak, and with below average trading volume many days, it was hard to cover the hedge need of nearly 14 million shares. Luckily, as the stock stabilized, thru end of day Wednesday, the deficit was absorbed.

Trouble started Thursday as stock fell another 80 points or so, triggering another 13 million or so shares to be sold. And total volume was light. So that couldn't happen. Friday AM looked like it was almost a premarket pump to help short at higher prices. But the huge hedging appetite pushed it down quickly. So here we are, with lot of good news re the Y, but at distressed levels

Good news is, if the up trend gets going, we should handily outperform indexes.

 

[StealthP3D]

Yes someone I suppose can quibble over an article stating "shareholders" or "some shareholders" but in a class action case it includes all shareholders whether you want to be part of the class or not.

Absolutely false. I've been a member of many shareholder class actions over the years and every one, without fail, has provided specific instructions to every shareholder on how to opt-out. This is standard operating procedure for EVERY class action that has occurred, at least in the last 3 decades. It's very easy to opt-out.

 

[StealthP3D]

Actually I doubt they're all weather. Here's the pirelli link:
https://m.tirerack.com/tires/description.jsp?tireMake=Pirelli&tireModel=P+Zero&partnum=935YR1P0XLV3

Pirelli makes a range of tires under the P Zero name including All-Seasons:

https://m.tirerack.com/tires/pirelli-tires.jsp

An "All Weather" tire is a different class than an "All-Season" tire.

 

[Fact Checking]

Some periods in the 2008-2009 time frame: Everything lost dollar value, while if i'm not mistaken the money printing machine was fully operational to soften the blow.

No, the "money printing machine" wasn't fully operational in 2007-2008, 0% interest rates were reached very early and couldn't drop further, so the real economy experienced an about -5% real rates shock for an extended period of time.

(Those trillions in "Quantitative Easing" weren't real money printing, that money didn't reach the real economy. We know this because inflation stayed low despite the "money printing".)

The $1 trillion stimulus in 2009-2010 covered only half of the shortfall, hence the slower recovery.

As a comparison, the 2017 Trump stimulus ($2 trillion in tax cuts) was twice as large and was executed during a boom.

 

[lklundin]

Man, you gotta love this guy. Right or wrong, he tells it like HE sees it. I'm willing to bet time will prove him right.

Elon Musk Told Workers They're More Likely To Die In A Car Crash Than From Coronavirus

Clearly, Tesla must have an untapped market among SpaceX employees.

 

[StealthP3D]

True, but how many of those shareholders who didn't want to be part of the class action lawsuit wanted to file one on their own behalf. I hated that it was essentially done in our name but nothing much to be done about it.

I don't get why you keep saying it was done in your name but there was nothing you could do about it. All you had to do was let the court know you didn't want to participate. It's really easy and specific instructions are provided to every participant.

While that does preserve your right to take separate legal action on your own behalf, it does not indicate to the court that you will. And if enough shareholders opt-out, it shrinks the size or population of the class and therefore the amount of any potential award. Because the award is based on damages supposedly suffered by the class. A smaller class would translate to a smaller award.

 

[StealthP3D]

Looks like Model Y has got a heat pump. Should make for much better cold weather range:

View attachment 521417

The heat pump will increase the cool weather range a lot and the very cold, arctic-like weather range a little bit. But the much larger cabin will radiate more heat so the overall improvement vs. the Model 3 in very cold conditions will be non-existent and in moderate temperatures (35F-60F) will be somewhat limited.

 

[Buckminster]

Ben Sullens review:

Electrek has several articles including dimensions and the service manual. Other than the heat pump, no major surprises. The powered trunk has a function that allows you to hold it at a lower height.

 

[StealthP3D]

Just a few weeks ago when the share price was flying high, we had a lot of these same people in here saying that they would never sell, they believe in the mission, no one can take this again from us again, etc. etc. Everyone has their own reasons, but if you are selling because you just want to get back in cheaper, then don't pretend to believe in the mission, you're just an opportunist who sees money as more important than principles. That's perfectly fine, but don't pretend to be otherwise.

I actually disagree with that kind of thinking because selling high and buying low actually adds stability to the share price by knocking down the highs and adding support to the lows.

My belief that it's better to not trade a company as innovative and fast-growing as Tesla stems mainly from the fact that it's really difficult to time markets and an investor risks getting left behind on what will likely turn into some pretty amazing compound growth. Considering that, and the devasting tax consequences (if trading in a non-tax deferred account), it's generally not a productive way to spend a lot of time. Also, Telsa, the company, doesn't see any of that money. While the company does see indirect benefits from a high share price, I don't see how buying low and selling high (and repeating) affects the average share price in a negative manner. Share price stability is good.

I'm not sure what principle I would be violating if I decided to trade TSLA shares other than my own principle to maximize the long-term growth of my account by delaying taxes as long as possible and watching my investment compound over the years without the dilution that selling at the wrong time could cause.

 

[wipster]

Pirelli makes a range of tires under the P Zero name including All-Seasons:

https://m.tirerack.com/tires/pirelli-tires.jsp

An "All Weather" tire is a different class than an "All-Season" tire.

I'm aware of that, but the tire referred to only states P Zero and is a 21"... from what I could find in a quick look, it did not appear it was "All Season." However, we'll know more about the tires on the Y's after this weekend.

I've run through 3 sets of P Zero Neros on my last two cars and I love them. And they are "All Season."

 

[WarpedOne]

Investors who sold ... any info how many shares Elon sold ?
Daytraders are not any better than shortzies... same animals, different color.

 

[nightfly]

Unlikely. I've a buy order at $500.

Nothing attracts retail like big round numbers. At least try to use the MAs or fib levels; pick some observed level of buying pressure. Heck, if you really want to make some money and not gamble, learn about "market profile".

 

[StealthP3D]

I remember during the 180 drop, even Gali, super bull, believed that Tesla had fallen off the demand cliff....

Investors seem to have this inexplicable and unholy fixation with the share price at all times. I've said this before, the share price is not a good proxy for the company's prospects, especially with a maligned company like Telsa. In this sense, the share price just doesn't matter at all and it does no good to focus on it. Focus on the company and their execution, investing becomes a whole lot easier when you stop worrying about (or celebrating) the share price. It is at wherever it's at. Always focus on the company and its current execution.