Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Prunesquallor]

As long as they don’t get any ideas about my island. Then I short TSLA with abandon.

I notice you’re discussing an island instead of an archipelago. Understandable given the economy.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

US Americans are tougher and used to _much_ more risk in their lives than Europeans. Look at all the (common) natural disasters in the US, tornadoes, wild fires. People there pick up their pieces and go on with their lives as best as they can.

So while I think a _lot_ of older and weaker people in the USA will likely die in the coming weeks and months, I think the country as a whole will soldier on.

Lol....you ever been to rural Italy. Quite a bit tougher and more resilient than Tallahassee. Kansas? Perhaps on par.

 

[KSilver2000]

With how things have shaped up for TSLA, anybody buying calls close to P&D report or earnings. Or do you think it's better to wait until next week?

I mean all these people on TV crying like the world is coming to an end have probably set panic levels to all time highs so I feel like we can only go up from here, especially if there is any sort of positive news on treatment and signs that social distancing is working.

Sounds like you already made up your mind.
Just do what you say, and let’s see how things are in a week.

 

[Fact Checking]

Does anyone know if anyone at GF3 was confirmed to have CV-19? What is their process if someone is determined to have CV-19?

As has been previously stated, Tesla is better suited than almost any other large US corporation to handle this due to their experience at GF3. It might be more hectic since Fremont doesn't have as clean of a floor plan as GF3, but I am confident in the creativity of Tesla's engineers to modify GF3's CV-19 plan to work within the Fremont building.

There were zero Covid-19 infections reported in the Shanghai Lingang district where GF3 is based at, and zero infections found at GF3 itself as well.

Tesla applied significant protection and mitigation measures at the Shanghai factory:

The high level of automation and the distance between the assembly work stations provides natural social distancing.

Tesla also required all non-Shanghai resident workers to self-quarantine for two weeks, before they were allowed to return to work.

Tesla is well prepared to apply similar protections at Fremont too.

 

[Cosmacelf]

not unless they are disinfecting cars after every workstation touches it. Hundreds of people touch the same car in the course of its run through the factory, so one person exposes them all.

They figured out how to manufacture cars in China with good disinfecting protocols. Should be applying that knowledge in Fremont.

 

[Joe F]

I do hope they're cleaning the Superchargers though...

I've ALWAYS used hand sanitizer after handling charger handles. People are generally gross WRT hand cleanliness IMO.

 

[sweter]

The factory will (and should) shut down, sooner or later. So the SP gets hit twice, today for the rumour of shut down, in a few days for the actual shut down.

At least maybe the Q1 P&D won't be so bad with only a week or two out of the equation (happened few times during M3 ramp anyway) and that might be a good catalyst.

Just hope Elon doesn't get the C, 'cause he definitely hasn't been keeping healthy last few years

 

[Queeg500]

I remember when tree fiddy was a brief hope on the way up.

 

[StealthP3D]

With how things have shaped up for TSLA, anybody buying calls close to P&D report or earnings. Or do you think it's better to wait until next week?

I mean all these people on TV crying like the world is coming to an end have probably set panic levels to all time highs so I feel like we can only go up from here, especially if there is any sort of positive news on treatment and signs that social distancing is working.

Calls seem somewhat expensive right now but that doesn't mean they will be less next week.

Never think a stock can't go down further (even a great stock) with the kind of fear we have now. Just as a stock can fly far higher than you ever thought possible, it can also drop and become far cheaper than you could even dream of. The good news for long-term holders is that time is the great equalizer of events like this. I'm heartened because I think the market is pricing in considerable more virus impact than Tesla will actually see and I think this will become apparent with the Q1 report.

The big question going forward is will Tesla still be able to sell every car they can make. And while that's certainly in question with the recent economic turmoil, I still think the answer might be "yes".

 

[Cherry Wine]

Like the sentiment, but what makes you think that?

Because I think the current downward movement is already pricing in a ton of decreased future sentiment with a dose of extra fear on top. We are clearly at "value levels" here where folks are starting to eye the stock price as on sale. A hint of recovery will have folks piling in.

Just my opinion. And again, dependent on fundamentals not further changing for the worse.

EDIT: I'm also thrilled with the prospect of being able to buy back some sold covered calls at strike prices of $300, though I haven't executed those trades yet. I thought those shares were loooooong gone, but now there's a glimmer of hope.

 

[Fact Checking]

I remember when tree fiddy was a brief hope on the way up.

Yeah, the good old times, I remember it as if it was just three months ago!

 

[KSilver2000]

I do hope they're cleaning the Superchargers though...

I don’t think I’ve ever seen anyone cleaning any part of a supercharger.

 

[Fact Checking]

I don’t think I’ve ever seen anyone cleaning any part of a supercharger.

Good thing there's home charging during pandemics.

(Gas car owners can also use their home crude oil refineries, so it's all good.)

 

[Mo City]

With how things have shaped up for TSLA, anybody buying calls close to P&D report or earnings. Or do you think it's better to wait until next week?

I mean all these people on TV crying like the world is coming to an end have probably set panic levels to all time highs so I feel like we can only go up from here, especially if there is any sort of positive news on treatment and signs that social distancing is working.

"It can only go up from here" has been almost a daily consensus for me and a lot of people. Yet the line keeps moving.

Fact: It's hard to guess the bottom. Stock could go up from here or it could reach 280 the next couple of days.

 

[Zsazsa]

From 1929 to 1932 the market dropped 86%, but it rose 307% in the next three years.
From 1936 to 1942 the market dropped 54% for a net gain of 247% Took 5.5 years to correct
From 1946 to 1965 slow growth of 170% 19.8 years
From 1965 to 1986 slow loss of 72% over 20.6 years
From 1986 to 12/30/1999 gain of 700% over 13.6 yrs remaining ~= until 2007
From 9/07 to 3/09 dropped 49% after housing collapse
From 4/09 to 11/19 gained 205%
From 12/19 to 3/18/2020 lost 32.74 %
Average of the 2 largest drops is 66.266%
Average drops is 52%
Average rebound is 294%
Source= DJI 100 year chart [Dow Jones - DJIA - 100 Year Historical Chart ]

Spanish flu 01/18 to 12/20 (lots of healthy folks died. Coronavirus is culling the herd of elderly or health impaired, unlike Spanish flu):
12/15 to 12/18 Dropped from 2390 to 1279 - 48%
12/18 to 8/19 rose 19%
To 10/21 dropped 32%
From 10/21 to 6/29 rose 460%

Most of the hysteria is self induced and pushed by the media. Every time my TSLA drops $50, I buy 10 shares. Others, I have buy orders at about 2009 values. It will rebound with great gains.

Just the thoughts of a Blonde...….

 

[wipster]

Damn, was holding out for 362...

Good fight at the end there though.

 

[traxila]

Bought ten more shares at the close. Will keep buying in increments. This could go down to 180 again if we start producing 100s of deaths in NYC on a daily basis. Sigh...I will keep buying. Slowly. Options so expensive in all directions....

 

[KSilver2000]

Why we need a better healthcare system...

Just think, about 10% of the country right now are uninsured. If even 20% of this population require hospitalization, how are those bills going to be paid for?

 

[wipster]

From 1929 to 1932 the market dropped 86%, but it rose 307% in the next three years.
From 1936 to 1942 the market dropped 54% for a net gain of 247% Took 5.5 years to correct
From 1946 to 1965 slow growth of 170% 19.8 years
From 1965 to 1986 slow loss of 72% over 20.6 years
From 1986 to 12/30/1999 gain of 700% over 13.6 yrs remaining ~= until 2007
From 9/07 to 3/09 dropped 49% after housing collapse
From 4/09 to 11/19 gained 205%
From 12/19 to 3/18/2020 lost 32.74 %
Average of the 2 largest drops is 66.266%
Average drops is 52%
Average rebound is 294%
Source= DJI 100 year chart [Dow Jones - DJIA - 100 Year Historical Chart ]

Spanish flu 01/18 to 12/20 (lots of healthy folks died. Coronavirus is culling the herd of elderly or health impaired, unlike Spanish flu):
12/15 to 12/18 Dropped from 2390 to 1279 - 48%
12/18 to 8/19 rose 19%
To 10/21 dropped 32%
From 10/21 to 6/29 rose 460%

Most of the hysteria is self induced and pushed by the media. Every time my TSLA drops $50, I buy 10 shares. Others, I have buy orders at about 2009 values. It will rebound with great gains.

Just the thoughts of a Blonde...….

"Culling the herd?" A bit tasteless there, although I get your meaning. Sure hope I don't get it as my doctor told me yesterday it would probably cull me.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Interesting how Tesla stock action has really differed from the market macros for the past 2 weeks. Even today, the stock never bounced with any of the bounces in the macros, especially at the end. Looks like it's the return of the short and manipulate again

Oh and I just added to my position in a large way today, with purchases throughout the day. Along with some other stocks. Not sure if it's the bottom but this is just easy money if you have at least a 9 month window