Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[CyberDutchie]

Just a note on this video, I made a mistake when calculating total delivery estimates for 2020:
Q1 - 90k
Q2 - 70k
Q3 - 130k
Q4 - 150k
Should have said "around 440k" but said "around 500k".

Am I too pessimistic or optimistic? What's your take?

I watch all your videos, Dave, they are great! I think Tesla will do better then the above, Elon will go for 500 or very close to it. I do not see a demand problem from Coronavirus. Those affected by Coronavirus who need financial support were never Tesla buyers anyway.

 

[RationalOptimist]

Has there been discussion yet about this? Strikes me as amazing... All the big auto companies have been challenged to respond to Covid. I'm predicting Tesla will end up being regarded as by far most effective. Huge goodwill value in that... and perhaps a reversal of some frustration w Elon's early comments.

Jupe
“Rapidly Deployable Care, Recovery and Isolation rooms for COVID-19 and other health pandemics. For the past two weeks a multidisciplinary team including ICU and ER doctors and Space X / Tesla have created rapidly deployable modular care and COVID-19 recovery/isolation rooms. They are also creating the worlds’ first mobile off-grid / micro-grid capable ICU for when COVID-19 hits beyond major cities. Units can be in the field in 4-6 weeks If you know of a hospital or government official that needs care rooms for doctors, isolation units for patients or ICU."

 

[Fobble]

Your Q2 is quite pessimistic, but none of us know for sure. I don't think Tesla is in any trouble selling or producing cars.

I personally think demand is not a major issue. The issue is how soon can Fremont be opened for work again. Toyota just announced that they will extend NA plant closure for 2 more weeks to April 20. Honda announced similarly earlier. I believe TSLA SP dropped relates to the news as well.
Toyota extends temporary plant closure schedule | KTSA

 

[Papafox]

For weeks, the primary force on TSLA has been market forces. We saw undeservedly high decline of TSLA when the hedge funds were unwinding their leverage and stocks that brought lots of money had to be sold. Then we saw the positive as investors started reallocating their funds, leaving stocks that were too weak to justify their price and moving money into stocks like TSLA.

Today, I see the first real return of obvious manipulations. Granted, the percent of selling by shorts number has been above 60% for much of the past week, but today you actually see the usual manipulation patterns: a pre-market dip on steroids as the macros did a smaller dip around 8:30am, lots of icicles as shorts push TSLA down and it bounces back, a push down to the red/green line before 11am for no good reason and then a game of whack-the-mole, and finally another dip on steroids going into 2pm with insufficient justification.

My guess is that the hedge funds that sold calls are really trying to minimize TSLA's price before Friday close, due to the quantity of 480, 490, and 500 calls sold that expire tomorrow.

For perspective, I suggest watching Dave T's latest video about the Shanghai GF influence on 2020 numbers and profitability, but take into account Dave's readjusted delivery numbers mentioned a few posts ahead of this one.

 

[Zero CO2]

Just a note on this video, I made a mistake when calculating total delivery estimates for 2020:
Q1 - 90k
Q2 - 70k
Q3 - 130k
Q4 - 150k
Should have said "around 440k" but said "around 500k".

Am I too pessimistic or optimistic? What's your take?

Dave great videos

I am modelling for the year ... i am not smart enough to figure quarters


550K original estimate for 2020
assume we will hit ~80% of target due virus and any lingering effects

0.8(550) = 440 K just right

 

[LJS22]

For weeks, the primary force on TSLA has been market forces. We saw undeservedly high decline of TSLA when the hedge funds were unwinding their liquidity and stocks that brought lots of money had to be sold. Then we saw the positive as investors started reallocating their funds, leaving stocks that were too weak to justify their price and moving money into stocks like TSLA.

Today, I see the first real return of obvious manipulations. Granted, the percent of selling by shorts number has been above 60% for much of the past week, but today you actually see the usual manipulation patterns: a pre-market dip on steroids as the macros did a smaller dip around 8:30am, lots of icicles as shorts push TSLA down and it bounces back, a push down to the red/green line before 11am for no good reason and then a game of whack-the-mole, and finally another dip on steroids going into 2pm with insufficient justification.

My guess is that the hedge funds that sold calls are really trying to minimize TSLA's price before Friday close, due to the quantity of 480, 490, and 500 calls sold that expire tomorrow.

For perspective, I suggest watching Dave T's latest video about the Shanghai GF influence on 2020 numbers and profitability, but take into account Dave's readjusted delivery numbers mentioned a few posts ahead of this one.

True. In our major run up Monday-Wednesday were heavy buying days and Thursday Friday were typically red. So if we return to that model we’ll be fine. It’s going to come down to delivery impact though

 

[phantasms]

I personally think demand is not a major issue. The issue is how soon can Fremont be opened for work again. Toyota just announced that they will extend NA plant closure for 2 more weeks to April 20. Honda announced similarly earlier. I believe TSLA SP dropped relates to the news as well.
Toyota extends temporary plant closure schedule | KTSA

I 100% agree. There is a huge line for their products. But, if they can't make them they can't sell them. I am in the boat that most people buying Tesla's will still be able to once the economy tanks because 1, they have a good amount of cash and/or 2, when considering overall cost of ownership the Model 3/Y isn't a terribly expensive car. Of course China will go well but that's nothing compared to Fremont at this point and China success was somewhat priced in previously. I'm sitting on the sidelines with a ton of cash, mostly TSLA cash from doing what supposedly can't be done "timing the market/stock". At this moment I'm not sure how to play Q1, maybe go in half. lol Otherwise, once it gets to ~400 I'm purchasing my dream share total which will give me an average cost basis of about ~$190 and will walk away and search for the next TSLA. No doubt this stock is going to the moon, eventually, but if Fremont is closed for half of Q2 or even half of 2020...eek!

 

[Cupidchild]

TSLA is up 100% since march 18. Im ok with a few days like this.

Far from 100%.
Its Up 62.5% if you caught the low and sold at the HIGH..

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

I 100% agree. There is a huge line for their products. But, if they can't make them they can't sell them. I am in the boat that most people buying Tesla's will still be able to once the economy tanks because 1, they have a good amount of cash and/or 2, when considering overall cost of ownership the Model 3/Y isn't a terribly expensive car. Of course China will go well but that's nothing compared to Fremont at this point and China success was somewhat priced in previously. I'm sitting on the sidelines with a ton of cash, mostly TSLA cash from doing what supposedly can't be done "timing the market/stock". At this moment I'm not sure how to play Q1, maybe go in half. lol Otherwise, once it gets to ~400 I'm purchasing my dream share total which will give me an average cost basis of about ~$190 and will walk away and search for the next TSLA. No doubt this stock is going to the moon, eventually, but if Fremont is closed for half of Q2 or even half of 2020...eek!

Ford is already applying pressure to start their US factories again on April 14th. Even humorous talk of a Fremont shutdown for 3-6 months is pretty ridiculous and really shouldn't be talked about here because it installs irrational fear. If anything, Tesla could be the first auto maker to restart their factory because of a combination of reasons : San Fran has and west coast in general is way further ahead in the curve than what the news covers which is how badly it's going in places like NYC/New Orleans, and Tesla can show examples of how they handled workers going back to work at Giga 3 and implement the same safety measures.

I still believe Fremont will start to come back to life in the 3rd or 4th week of April.

 

[StealthP3D]

I still believe Fremont will start to come back to life in the 3rd or 4th week of April.

Before that. Easter is April 12th. Trump will command Tesla to start production on April 13th (at the latest) just so he can act like he knew what he was talking about.

 

[JRD1]

Has there been discussion yet about this? Strikes me as amazing... All the big auto companies have been challenged to respond to Covid. I'm predicting Tesla will end up being regarded as by far most effective. Huge goodwill value in that... and perhaps a reversal of some frustration w Elon's early comments.

Jupe
“Rapidly Deployable Care, Recovery and Isolation rooms for COVID-19 and other health pandemics. For the past two weeks a multidisciplinary team including ICU and ER doctors and Space X / Tesla have created rapidly deployable modular care and COVID-19 recovery/isolation rooms. They are also creating the worlds’ first mobile off-grid / micro-grid capable ICU for when COVID-19 hits beyond major cities. Units can be in the field in 4-6 weeks If you know of a hospital or government official that needs care rooms for doctors, isolation units for patients or ICU."

Where is this quote from? I don't see it anywhere on their site or their Twitter/Instagram/Facebook links.

 

[phantasms]

Ford is already applying pressure to start their US factories again on April 14th. Even humorous talk of a Fremont shutdown for 3-6 months is pretty ridiculous and really shouldn't be talked about here because it installs irrational fear. If anything, Tesla could be the first auto maker to restart their factory because of a combination of reasons : San Fran has and west coast in general is way further ahead in the curve than what the news covers which is how badly it's going in places like NYC/New Orleans, and Tesla can show examples of how they handled workers going back to work at Giga 3 and implement the same safety measures.

I still believe Fremont will start to come back to life in the 3rd or 4th week of April.

I don't necessarily disagree with you. I'm just saying it's a non zero and until we have a better sense or the stock gets crazy low again, I'll be Scrooge McDucking it on the sidelines. Yes, CA did catch it early and will likely get over it first, but also, Fremont is located in a state that, much like my state, is taking it very seriously. Ironically if Tesla's factory was in a state that intends to cure it by thoughts and prayers I would be more bullish in the short term. I could see our mad genius leader buy a ton of test kits to enact antibody testing of employees and get Newsom to give Musk the personal go-ahead on opening.

I do think in the long term COVID ads to the bull case for Tesla.

 

[mikevbf]

Just a note on this video, I made a mistake when calculating total delivery estimates for 2020:
Q1 - 90k
Q2 - 70k
Q3 - 130k
Q4 - 150k
Should have said "around 440k" but said "around 500k".

Am I too pessimistic or optimistic? What's your take?

I think you are too optimistic because you do not account for the headwind caused by supply chain interruption that made it impossible for Fremont factory to continue even if government had allowed them. I know Shanghai GF is quickly changing over to a more local supply chain, but the optimistic prediction was some number over 70% local supply chain by mid year so unlikely they are there yet and production is only as fast as the slowest part.

 

[Cupidchild]

Before that. Easter is April 12th. Trump will command Tesla to start production on April 13th (at the latest) just so he can act like he knew what he was talking about.

Same here.On 4/13. After Easter..

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

I think you are too optimistic because you do not account for the headwind caused by supply chain interruption that made it impossible for Fremont factory to continue even if government had allowed them. I know Shanghai GF is quickly changing over to a more local supply chain, but the optimistic prediction was some number over 70% local supply chain by mid year so unlikely they are there yet and production is only as fast as the slowest part.

Which makes the fact that Tesla is much more vertically integrated than traditional auto a huge plus for them. I could also see Tesla working with China suppliers to ramp up even more and make US-versions of the parts that they still don't do themselves and can't get from their usual suppliers

 

[Eugene Ash]

Has there been discussion yet about this? Strikes me as amazing... All the big auto companies have been challenged to respond to Covid. I'm predicting Tesla will end up being regarded as by far most effective. Huge goodwill value in that... and perhaps a reversal of some frustration w Elon's early comments.

Jupe
“Rapidly Deployable Care, Recovery and Isolation rooms for COVID-19 and other health pandemics. For the past two weeks a multidisciplinary team including ICU and ER doctors and Space X / Tesla have created rapidly deployable modular care and COVID-19 recovery/isolation rooms. They are also creating the worlds’ first mobile off-grid / micro-grid capable ICU for when COVID-19 hits beyond major cities. Units can be in the field in 4-6 weeks If you know of a hospital or government official that needs care rooms for doctors, isolation units for patients or ICU."

That quote needs a bit of @Fact Checking :
Looks like one of these idea-tester web-sites to see whether there is any interest at all....
I see no reference to tesla or space X on their web-site.

 

[avoigt]

seeking alfafa claims (not gonna link to them out of principal) that an internal e-mail to employees announced that two of them have the virus, but had been working from home the past 2 weeks. I'm still looking for corroborating evidence.

edit: electrek has the same report: Tesla confirms two employees tested positive for COVID-19 - Electrek

the timing coincides with when TSLA turned down.

What is the news Elektrek wants to convey?

We found 2 out of the 510,000 infected people in the world?

I really can't read the articles from Fred and Eleckrek any more as there is nothing else than greedy clickbait.

Sad, I liked them once.

 

[klcklc]

Thanks for all the messages about being careful with options. I apologize as I know I totally sound like a troll. I was genuinely curious about how to benefit from this inflated market and will do more research before putting my money in.

Honest confession (as dumb as this makes me sound): I never imagined putting in $400k. That is way beyond my pay grade. I meant 100 units (so 1 option I guess). Wanted to play with $5k that I don't mind losing.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Thanks for all the messages about being careful with options. I apologize as I know I totally sound like a troll. I was genuinely curious about how to benefit from this inflated market and will do more research before putting my money in.

Honest confession (as dumb as this makes me sound): I never imagined putting in $400k. That is way beyond my pay grade. I meant 100 units (so 1 option I guess). Wanted to play with $5k that I don't mind losing.

You can do that if you like, but the level of volatility we've seen means the options pricing is absurd right now. Simply not worth buying even $900 TSLA options, they're just way too expensive. Buy shares if you want to buy something, or you can wait a month of IV to calm down and hope TSLA is still <$600.

Tough to hit home runs with TSLA, it's too volatile and unpredictable.

 

[Eugene Ash]

Thanks for all the messages about being careful with options. I apologize as I know I totally sound like a troll. I was genuinely curious about how to benefit from this inflated market and will do more research before putting my money in.

Honest confession (as dumb as this makes me sound): I never imagined putting in $400k. That is way beyond my pay grade. I meant 100 units (so 1 option I guess). Wanted to play with $5k that I don't mind losing.

Here is what you do: read a thousand pages of this thread, identify people who have made money consistently. When they speak up, listen, take action and be prepared to never see that money. Timing is critical. Understand what the poster's assumptions are and whether you agree with them. @UnknownSoldier had a point stocking up on SPY puts, but again, this is all time sensitive.

So, may i suggest a 80$ investment before you embark on this perilous path? Options as a Strategic Investment: Fifth Edition. Come back, give us a re-cap of the 700 pages. You'll be way smarter than 99% of wsb crowd.

Also, learn about /s, as antonynj gives solid advice with 1880 options, but it is also funny. I still can't tell what is what, but made some money in 1880 leaps : )