Gene is a bull but he oddly has and continues to be out of date on important things when it comes to Tesla's business. He pretty much states that he think Giga 3 will still be in early production phase at the end of Q2 and that he's unsure if Giga 3 will be at full production(which I'm assuming is 5k/week) by Q4. Given how fast Giga 3 has been on practically everything, I think they'll be at 5k/week sometime in Q2
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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
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Gene is a bull but he oddly has and continues to be out of date on important things when it comes to Tesla's business. He pretty much states that he think Giga 3 will still be in early production phase at the end of Q2 and that he's unsure if Giga 3 will be at full production(which I'm assuming is 5k/week) by Q4. Given how fast Giga 3 has been on practically everything, I think they'll be at 5k/week sometime in Q2
SunCatcher
Member
So... are you talking NY (EST) time zone here? Inquiring minds would like to know.
Bet TSLA
Active Member
You know, when people here start acting giddy, inevitably TSLA finds a way to disappoint. Get it under control people! By tomorrow, the usual suspects will be pointing out that Tesla will have little or no income (just like everybody else) during Q2. They can't sell cars or batteries that they can't build.
So yeah, we'll see a big pop tomorrow because Tesla had a good Q1, and then just like that it will be in the past and TSLA will follow the macros again. Is there any reason that won't be down, down, down as our crisis deepens? Who is going to be excited about battery day with bodies stacking up in the streets?
So yeah, we'll see a big pop tomorrow because Tesla had a good Q1, and then just like that it will be in the past and TSLA will follow the macros again. Is there any reason that won't be down, down, down as our crisis deepens? Who is going to be excited about battery day with bodies stacking up in the streets?
TheTalkingMule
Distributed Energy Enthusiast
I'm perfectly fine with TSLA popping to $650 then following the macros for a while. Earnings then Battery Day are when we shoot back up toward $1000.
Weeelll now, I guess I could scrounge up a little change to buy a truck to back up for shares if it came to that price.Coronavirus Could Take Tesla Stock To $130
This article is a poor April fools day attempt, what a joke of an article, and why does this show up in my E*Trade newsfeed?
I’ve never even heard of Trefis...
At $130, you should be scrounging up ammo and getting the hell outta dodge instead of looking for spare change to purchase stock.Weeelll now, I guess I could scrounge up a little change to buy a truck to back up for shares if it came to that price.
So... are you talking NY (EST) time zone here? Inquiring minds would like to know.
Listen, I'm a lucky idiot and certainly could be wrong. Not advice!
But yeah EST...most mornings there's that morning dip and most days the high is right before lunch. I've spent the past hour trying to figure out how to get historical price data at specific times of day into a Google spreadsheet so I can run a simulation over the past year or two. I'm open to any tips on how to get this done. I understand why it usually peaks around 11:45 but I don't understand the "mandatory morning dip". Anyone care to explain?
Best,
Gene
I'm about as TSLA bull as you get....but I don't see how the above isn't at least 90% correct.
Interesting hypothesis on that MMD arbitrage. Have you figured out the per-time of day export?
Except for ya know Giga 3 which has it's own supply chains and battery sources. Also both Fremont and Giga1 can restart production at any point they want....they aren't forbidden from doing so. They've already been labeled essential by both states
Fremont is considered essential. schools cancelling the rest of the school year that ends in May has no bearing on Fremont or Giga1 production
You know, I’ve always had this vision of a survival scenario in which many of my fellow Americans load up the gas guzzlin’ SUV with the wife, the kids, the pets and the guns. Then they all head out into one giant traffic jam on the highways where they all run out of gas, get hungry, and start shooting. I mean, what new dodge are most people going to head to?
So yeah, I still won’t be selling my shares even if it goes to $130 and, yes, I’ll sure as shootin’ find money to buy a bunch more if it goes that low.
However, while I avoid hard liquor in favor of wine, if that price comes by maybe I’ll crack open that bottle of scotch I’ve been saving for years.
Speaking of odds and as I’ve learned from unfortunate family experience, guns have this ghastly habit of preferentially hurting their owners and their owners’ families so I’ll take my chances without. Thank you just the same.
StealthP3D
Well-Known Member
Please, I haven't eaten yet!
A Tesla Skeptic Lays It On The (Bottom) Line - AAH #503 LIVE (1:19:36)
I wonder why Autoline would have a guest on that knew so little about the auto industry? The two hosts had to correct Montana Skeptic multiple times on things about the industry he just had no clue on. By the end of the show his underlying hate for Tesla was coming through loud and clear and all three of the other guys could see it.
For example, when MS tried to claim that all the Fremont workers who were laid off due to Coronavirus shutdown would go out and find other jobs elsewhere, John McElroy had to correct him and by using his experience of the many layoffs in Michigan over the decades. The workers get unemployment as long as the shut-down lasts and then most of the same ones are hired back. Because they can't find comparable work at comparable wages. No one tthought to mention that it's pretty hard to find a job in the middle of a Coronavirus lockdown.
When MS tried to say Tesla was screwed because last year Tesla renegotiated higher volume/lower-cost contracts with their parts suppliers and now they couldn't meet the minimum volumes contracted, John McElroy had to correct him and said that's not how it works in the auto parts supplier business - suppliers don't sue manufacturer's acting in good faith because they would never get another supply contract again - they work it out when times are tough.
MS said a lot of things that simply weren't true but none of the other guys knew enough about Tesla to correct him. For example, at the end of the show one of the hosts got Tesla's Q1 delivery numbers hot off the presses. MS appeared befuddled by the number. At the beginning of the show, MS made the case that sales would be terrible this quarter without Coronavirus but with CV, sales would be even worse. He said if they managed to hit 85K that would be really good but still worse than their (record) Q4 sales. And he implied they couldn't even hit that. He was just throwing that out there as a result that would only be possible in an ideal situation. So, when it was announced they had beat his number he rhetorically asked how they thought the revenues would compare to Q1 2019, a quarter in which he claimed was the transition to all "high margin sales"?? As I recall, Q1 2019 was the transition to low margin sales, with the price cuts and the introduction of the standard range $35K model. But MS looked shaken up by the Q1 sales number that was revealed at the end of the show.
I found it odd that Lawrence Fossi maintained his alias, Montana Skeptic, for the show and never revealed his true identity. Every other Autoline show I've ever seen had multiple guests and they were all proud to use their real name. Very odd. I wonder what excuse he used when he told McElroy he wanted to use an alias!
I also wonder how his short position is working out, LOL!
Dat macro tho
Working on it. Since we share the same first name I'll hit you up if I figure it out.
I could simply buy 10 sell 10 for a period of time and track success. I'd much rather get the data into a sheet so I can work on finding indicators of days it doesn't work. Huge macro down, massive high pre-market, massive low pre-market..etc. And, more importantly, making sure my thesis is remotely correct in the first place. lol
Someone has to watch the kids as well as assist in the education, therefore it may be also an impact on the parents ability to work at the factory.
As essential, will Tesla be able to produce vehicles or are they required to produce vents, medical equipment?
Are the suppliers considered essential as well?
The California and Nevada state orders explicitly say that auto manufacturers are considered essential. No one is stopping Tesla from making cars at fremont or battery packs at Giga1(well technically Panasonic but they said they will be back at it in a week at this point)
Edit: it would defy logic to allow car manufacturers build cars but the suppliers not be able to work
StealthP3D
Well-Known Member
In order to slander someone, you have to name them, something I've never done. The exact verbiage I used was from memory, which I realized was specific to the time of the old e-mail from him. He said it expired that year and couldn't be rolled over to the next year (which I believe was true until the credits were renewed by Congress at a later date).
If I misled anyone, I'm sorry but you seem pretty upset about this.
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The whole thing was confusing because Tesla shut down out of caution and to abide by the local county order, which was ambiguous and not defined. Days later a statewide order came down that clearly stated auto manufacturers are essential which nullifies the county order.
I'm not necessarily saying Tesla will open Fremont back up next week of even the week after. I'm just saying they can chose when they want to start production again. I personally think it will be the 3red week of April
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