Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[kaczmarczyk]

Thank you that gives me perspective. Timing of events is very similar. Your Governor has decided to get people used to the idea of another 8 weeks rather than the broader 4 weeks one.

How are people in your state feeling about another possible 2 months? I’d imagine that would stir some restlessness.

Well the weather has been chilly, very windy and wet this week so I don't think people are itching to get out and around yet. Also, with the White House giving insight into the potential death toll this week I think people are taking the stay-at-home directive good so far. Let's see how people start to feel come Memorial Day and with nicer weather though.

I think people are still underestimating the impact a 2+ month stay-at-home directive will have on the economy. My parents who both work in the restaurant industry have been furloughed. One of my neighbors was furloughed 2 weeks ago. No one is traveling for business. Restaurants are starting to close as take-outs are not profitable enough. You are seeing reports of doctors and nurses being asked to take pay cuts as their services around elective surgeries are being cancelled for now. My dentist cancelled routine service...to my surprise it was the dentist himself who called me back, not one of the 3 or 4 receptionists. I work in IT and two companies that I work with are under hiring freezes. There are rumors that my company will be reducing people's OTE (on target earnings) as we start our new fiscal year along with some layoffs. I am worried to think what the economy will be like if this extends through the summer or if COVID comes back in a second wave in the fall. Can you imagine how quick companies and states will be to shut down for a 2nd wave of COVID?

One thing I do feel strongly about is this is going to devastate the traditional automakers. I don't see how they can afford to pivot towards EV now, especially with labor unions and pensions. Tesla's lead will strengthen and I believe Tesla will survive this black swan event. What I don't know is how far and wide this will impact Tesla though.

 

[j6Lpi429@3j]

Advertising always perplexed me because it made me less likely to buy a product.

Everybody says that. They are all wrong. There are a few cases of *bad* advertising where that happens, but 95% of ads work on you, and me, and every single member of this forum. If you really think not...this book is full of the science that explains how:
https://www.amazon.co.uk/Advertised-Mind-Groundbreaking-Insights-Advertising/dp/074945024X/
also...
https://www.amazon.co.uk/Seducing-Subconscious-Psychology-Emotional-Advertising-ebook/dp/B007O4ZHL2/

 

[SO16]

Everybody says that. They are all wrong. There are a few cases of *bad* advertising where that happens, but 95% of ads work on you, and me, and every single member of this forum. If you really think not...this book is full of the science that explains how:
https://www.amazon.co.uk/Advertised-Mind-Groundbreaking-Insights-Advertising/dp/074945024X/
also...
https://www.amazon.co.uk/Seducing-Subconscious-Psychology-Emotional-Advertising-ebook/dp/B007O4ZHL2/

Now more than ever, Tesla is production constrained. No point for Tesla to advertise at this time ...especially now with only ~2 weeks of inventory (per Rob Stark).

 

[jerry33]

Everybody says that. They are all wrong. There are a few cases of *bad* advertising where that happens, but 95% of ads work on you, and me, and every single member of this forum.

Not when you don't have watch mass media TV, use ad blockers, and just don't go to the sites that demand you turn them off.

 

[StealthP3D]

Everybody says that. They are all wrong. There are a few cases of *bad* advertising where that happens, but 95% of ads work on you, and me, and every single member of this forum. If you really think not...this book is full of the science that explains how:
https://www.amazon.co.uk/Advertised-Mind-Groundbreaking-Insights-Advertising/dp/074945024X/
also...
https://www.amazon.co.uk/Seducing-Subconscious-Psychology-Emotional-Advertising-ebook/dp/B007O4ZHL2/

I understand that. But I consciously search out brands that don't need to advertise. I admit it, I'm weird that way. Sometimes I don't have a good choice. This is particularly true of things like DSLR's, ski gear, tires, etc. But there are a lot of good olive oils, nuts, pasta, beer, clothing, etc. that don't need to advertise. I only buy it if it's superior to the heavily advertised name brand stuff and it's almost always cheaper so price doesn't even need to play into it. I encourage everyone to check it out. Back in the day the store-branded products often were mediocre or notably inferior but I've found the opposite to be true today in most cases.

 

[ggr]

Don't despair. MMs have pulled this trick before. After 2018Q3 (which was supposed to be a huge consensus loss), Tesla delivered a big beat with the P&D Report. Then to celebrate, next day the SP slumped...
It was only the following week (after the big buoys had repositioned themselves) that the SP climbed to reflect properly the information in the P&D.

Not saying this will happen, though. MMs and shortzes alike are making short-term book on this manipulation, and they have the trading power (and the slanted rulez) to have their way.

No matter. Tesla is fine, and will be fine. EVs are inevitable, and soon so will be renewable energy. The SP will sort itself out eventually, despite all the games being played. Jus' buy the dips, and...

HODL (as always).

Cheers!

You are probably correct, at least I hope so. But next week is a short trading week (good Friday), and I've found that sometimes trading is even less predictable. At least Wall St can't go on vacation...

 

[theschnell]

Finally finding a little bit of a bid. What a crazy day!

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Nobody needs to cover today? Really? nobody's short out there on margin? Let's goooooooooo!

 

[StealthP3D]

At least Wall St can't go on vacation...

Right. You can't go on vacation if you're not doing anything useful to begin with.

 

[kbM3]

I seriously doubt we'll ever shut down again from the rona. Not only is herd immunity slowly growing, but there are promising drug treatments and vaccines being fast tracked. Additionally, there will be millions more ventilators available in a few months.

Sadly, many of the most susceptible will also have passed - which further reduces the shock on the healthcare system.

Actually the best case is that we reach herd immunity, and this virus pandemic will be over for good by late April or early May. Nonetheless, this will not be the last pandemic and that we learn how to deal with it effectively might be a plus. It is a good exercise thankfully with a not particularly lethal pandemic. There were idiotic, corrupt, inappropriate under and overreaction everywhere in the world. Of course, the USA is 2nd. worse after Turkmenistan.

Heard immunity is reached when we have a vaccine (which experts say at the very most optimistic will be 12 months away), or after 200 million people in the US are recovered from infection (with a commensurate 1M-2M deaths). So that won’t help this year.

Like I said, we need to really hope for anti-virals, seasonality help, or an incredibly effective detection, isolation and contact tracing program of which there seems to be no plan in sight (in the U.S. and Europe).

 

[Johnny Ma]

Any more word on battery day? Was expecting it to be before q1 earnings call to provide positive news like AI day. With prospect for bad q2, maybe waiting a qtr?

Your posting fingerprint is too obvious, @KSilver2000. The concern troll schtick is getting old. Maybe try to use aliases that don't all end in multiples of 2000?

 

[Sanny]

From an earlier post above: "Actually the best case is that we reach herd immunity, and this virus pandemic will be over for good by late April or early May."

There appears to be a lot of misunderstanding of herd immunity on this board. For CV, herd immunity won't even begin until about 70% of a population has had it. We don't want to be in a position that 70+% of Americans have had it. In the short and medium term time frames (ie, until a treatment or vaccine is available, probably not until this time next year), the only way to prevent spread is distancing and business closures. If a second wave occurs next fall and winter, it could be much worse than now. The point is, I urge caution expecting things will get better for a business revival in the near term, and again over the winter. Fremont and Sparks may be closed off and on for extended periods over the next year. Trade with care. Long and strong here. The long term narrative has not changed. Discussion of CV herd immunity below:

Here's Why Herd Immunity Won't Save Us From The COVID-19 Pandemic

Regarding TSLA and Tesla: I find it hard to understand why you think Tesla will be relevant in the picture of the future that you draw. If I had such thinking, I would liquidate all stocks and invest in a farm, or another type of agriculture, personal protection (of all kind) and such. Basically I believe if we stay closed for 6-12 months all stocks would mean almost nothing, and money would start to mean very little.
That's why I believe we will not stay closed that long unless the probability of death for everyone is so real that anyone will have a reasonable fear of 10% probability of dying just for leaving the house (this is closer to the Bird Box movie than current reality).

 

[Singuy]

Last 15 mins will be interesting. Will MM push it to 500? Will there be a panic sell off!? Stay tuned!

 

[theschnell]

Are the MMs overlooking that they sold 3,000 puts at $500? Or I guess they already hedged that this morning apparently...

 

[LJS22]

Last 15 mins will be interesting. Will MM push it to 500? Will there be a panic sell off!? Stay tuned!

Nasdaq going up, we are being held down!

 

[XHabjab]

Just an FYI on the guidance conversation, TSLA has provided some sort of update about 60% of the time in the quarterly delivery/production reports. It's not uncommon.

From:

@Fact Checking is that you?

 

[Mo City]

Last 15 mins will be interesting. Will MM push it to 500? Will there be a panic sell off!? Stay tuned!

What's most interesting to me is how it opens the following Monday vs. Friday's closing. Except for the last 2 weeks, movement has been significant this year, one way or the other.

 

[Tim S]

I guess someone thought Max Pain was $480.

 

[LJS22]

Ok 5% not bad. Earnings typically is a bigger mover. With no time table for Fremont reopening and Q2 going to be tough we are in good shape.

we can talk about manipulation all day, but we’ll be good!

 

[theschnell]

I guess someone thought Max Pain was $480.

Yeah MMs left $6,000,000 on the table if they didn't hedge (but I can only assume that they did).