Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[MP3Mike]

I think the lack of cases and how well Cali have done will get Fremont back online. But with Fremont online is useless without Panasonic opening shop at Giga.

They would still be able to make S&X, as long as Panasonic in Japan is operating. (As well as the other necessary suppliers.)

And there may be a stockpile of 3&Y battery packs that they could deplete until Panasonic gets going again.

 

[Boomer19]

I am genuinely curious about the disagrees here ... i can only say grow up to all involved and work on your emotional intelligence ... the idea that 2 respected posters feel so slighted by the words of a single Mod and it is are taken so seriously is amazing to me ...

i am suspicious quite frankly that you could even be a successful investor with this type of behavior ... since investing requires a lot of emotional intelligence and grit(which i have been working a lifetime to acquire) .... delicate geniuses generally don't have a lot of emotional intelligence and if their intelligence is challenged they leave and find other blind followers...

maybe they are both really just traders as traders(technical) are ≠ to investors(fundamental)...

"not that there is anything wrong with that"

i must be missing something here ... I guess there is more to their exit than I care to understand

my saying is "consider the source " and move on ... change is good

i don’t get it either, nor do i know what happened. it’s impossible to keep up here and other threads between work, family, life, etc.

i learned a ton of technical stuff about tesla early on in this forum
- was reading heavily for couple years before i bothered to start posting, and friend/tesla mentor filled me in on key stuff for years prior to that (he since left too)

i mean stuff about the batteries, motors, products, financials, etc
- many of those people left ~ 2018. they couldn’t take the manic self congratulatory geniuses when the stock was high and the world is ending bridge jumpers when it was down.
with popularity, the influx of new user and volume, and ensuing noise drove many off ..i truly miss them. i don’t even remember their handles at this point, but many great ones remain - they know who they are.

i wish there was a pro thread where only the experienced, in at least 1 or several categories related to product, markets, engineering, accounting/finance, supply chain. etc etc could post (they’d have to pass a test LOL) and the rest would be read only. easier to moderate. almost like a fact checking (no pun) without any tangents. i do like FC btw, just sayin

 

[Tim S]

I am genuinely curious about the disagrees here ... i can only say grow up to all involved and work on your emotional intelligence ... the idea that 2 respected posters feel so slighted by the words of a single Mod and it is are taken so seriously is amazing to me ...

i am suspicious quite frankly that you could even be a successful investor with this type of behavior ... since investing requires a lot of emotional intelligence and grit(which i have been working a lifetime to acquire) .... delicate geniuses generally don't have a lot of emotional intelligence and if their intelligence is challenged they leave and find other blind followers...

maybe they are both really just traders as traders(technical) are ≠ to investors(fundamental)...

"not that there is anything wrong with that"

i must be missing something here ... I guess there is more to their exit than I care to understand

my saying is "consider the source " and move on ... change is good

Since you are curious about the disagrees, I will say most probably disagree with the last line "it's their loss not ours". IMO losing their contributions is a big loss to everyone here.

 

[RobbyJ]

I am genuinely curious about the disagrees here ... i can only say grow up to all involved and work on your emotional intelligence ... the idea that 2 respected posters feel so slighted by the words of a single Mod and it is are taken so seriously is amazing to me ...

i am suspicious quite frankly that you could even be a successful investor with this type of behavior ... since investing requires a lot of emotional intelligence and grit(which i have been working a lifetime to acquire) .... delicate geniuses generally don't have a lot of emotional intelligence and if their intelligence is challenged they leave and find other blind followers...

maybe they are both really just traders as traders(technical) are ≠ to investors(fundamental)...

"not that there is anything wrong with that"

i must be missing something here ... I guess there is more to their exit than I care to understand

my saying is "consider the source " and move on ... change is good

You're looking at this from the wrong angle.
Consider this forum as a place where you go to volunteer to help out, without pay and any meaningful compensation.
Now consider that the boss of that charity continuesly nags and bothers and annoys and corrects you, even though you're only trying to help.
If you think you're being treated unfairly, you will probably take it on the chin for a while if you care enough. But if it continues, after some time you're fed up and just say F this!! And yes, when this happens it's a loss for BOTH volunteer AND charity!
And as you have seen, it makes other volunteers who feel the same also leave.

 

[Causalien]

You're looking at this from the wrong angle.
Consider this forum as a place where you go to volunteer to help out, without pay and any meaningful compensation.
Now consider that the boss of that charity continuesly nags and bothers and annoys and corrects you, even though you're only trying to help.
If you think you're being treated unfairly, you will probably take it on the chin for a while if you care enough. But if it continues, after some time you're fed up and just say F this!! And yes, when this happens it's a loss for BOTH volunteer AND charity!
And as you have seen, it makes other volunteers who feel the same also leave.

There are a lot of successful ppl here at the top of their field. The stuff they provide are actually worth quite a lot of money in the real world.

Ppl in the top of their field does not need to waste their time on ppl who don't appreciate them and that's a fact of life. Especially when they've reached "FU" status in their professional line of work.

 

[MaChiMiB]

Just a little heads up to Jason Yangs latest GF3 video released today:

Jason Yangs was recorded on April 2nd, Wuwas video (discussed a couple pages back) was recorded on April 3rd. Both were recorded in the early afternoon, one can tell by the shadows of the steel pillars.

Main difference: in Jasons video on Thursday (April 2nd) Model 3s were on the test track and loaded onto trucks, dead silence there in Wuwas video on Friday. So IMO it's likely that they shut down production early because of the Qingming holiday on April 4th. Or they run out of vital parts for production still produced in the US or Europe, but this wouldn't explain why they don't deliver the 146 Model 3s on the lot. The next video in about a week will tell.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Uncle Jack has a sit-down chat on the successful conclusion of his salvage Model 3 project. The discussion on the Market and Tesla begins at 1:08:31 (~2 min segment):

(1:08:31)
"But so I said this could kill the dead cat bounce. No it's not. The dead cat bounce is almost a maxim of falls and stock markets. You have kind of a crash and then you recover third to a half of it and that could happen pretty quick. And then over the next six months you have a stair step down and you'll be down in this case we'll be down three or four hundred points each day for two days and then we'll shoot up for 500 points for a day and then while another two days down and another shoot up but if you take it over the next month it's stair-stepping straight into hell and that's what its gonna do."

(1:09:36)
"And I'd like to sit that out too. It's not as dramatic but it's what's going on. So I sold all the Tesla I've been acquiring at fairly modest prices at five hundred and five dollars and I did take a little beating on it and by the end of that day it was 450 their announcement brought it up to 475 and I think it's decaying since then

"The earnings announcement should be about the 22nd of April. I haven't decided what I'm gonna do about that, but generally the market is gonna stair step down from here until there's some clarity on the coronavirus. There is no clarity on the coronavirus. The coronavirus will be with us until the vacine is widely deployed. The entire question is how soon will you get worn out from the story?"
​

 

[dgodfrey]

CARES makes all that irrelevant as it removes the requirement to seek work while obtaining unemployment benefits. It's tailored to the needs of the current lockdown.

On an OT side note, I consider myself a very principled person. However, the rewards of the economy have shifted so far to the top 1% while the tax burden has shifted to the middle/bottom 30-90% at the same time that healthcare has gotten worse and health insurance more expensive, so much so that the wage earners are basically indentured servants. I would have no qualms about a laid-off worker falsifying their search for work (assuming CARES didn't remove the work-search requirement) or doing whatever it took to serve their best financial interest (or avoiding low-paying work in an industry with unacceptable health risks). The powers to be look the other way at white-collar system abuses measured in millions and billions of dollars (cue @Artful Dodger) , it would hypocritical to punish a worker for looking out for the best interests of their family and themself, even if it meant going outside the legal framework of their unemployment benefits. There has been an all-out war against the workers that was waged by the investment class (at least the most vocal and activist amongst us) and I don't need to tell you who won and who lost. It's tearing apart the fabric of society that made capitalism great. The pendulum has swung too far to the right based on nothing more than FUD. It's like the commie-scare of the 1950's that ultimately failed due to true American ideals shinning through was re-messaged and re-packaged to be delivered over the TV and the Internet and it worked. And the workers lost. And America lost.

I didn't know the CARES bill encouraged people that were laid off to remain laid off. Seems odd and contradictory considering the other part of the stimulus was to keep people employed.
But my bigger concern is the bolded above. Kind of surprised that you have as much support as you do from a forum of probably self made, hard working, humanists but we may have misunderstood each other. I'm not supporting someone taking whatever comes their way regardless of the health risks. I'm not even supportive of taking a pay cut necessarily if it may preclude a better opportunity that is eminent. I'm pushing back against the philosophy that since someone else is getting away with doing what's wrong, I too am entitled to do what's wrong. And let's face it, this government has too long been sponsoring laziness for way too long.
If you have an issue with the way the tax laws are structured you have options on how you deal with it. You can become a Patriot, Sovereign Citizen, vote and bend your representatives ear, move, cheat the system, etc.
I'm as frustrated as the next guy at the inequity surrounding the middle class. But that's not going to make me into something I'm not.
Your actions are the story of you, not a reaction of others.

 

[Fobble]

I didn't know the CARES bill encouraged people that were laid off to remain laid off. Seems odd and contradictory considering the other part of the stimulus was to keep people employed.

It will be ppl taking advantage of the situation for sure. But, such government programs such as CARES and PPP will end sooner or later, and everyone will go back to their old work or get a new work whether they want or not.

 

[Singuy]

Uncle Jack has a sit-down chat on the successful conclusion of his salvage Model 3 project. The discussion on the Market and Tesla begins at 1:08:31 (~2 min segment):

(1:08:31)
"But so I said this could kill the dead cat bounce. No it's not. The dead cat bounce is almost a maxim of falls and stock markets. You have kind of a crash and then you recover third to a half of it and that could happen pretty quick. And then over the next six months you have a stair step down and you'll be down in this case we'll be down three or four hundred points each day for two days and then we'll shoot up for 500 points for a day and then while another two days down and another shoot up but if you take it over the next month it's stair-stepping straight into hell and that's what its gonna do."

(1:09:36)
"And I'd like to sit that out too. It's not as dramatic but it's what's going on. So I sold all the Tesla I've been acquiring at fairly modest prices at five hundred and five dollars and I did take a little beating on it and by the end of that day it was 450 their announcement brought it up to 475 and I think it's decaying since then

"The earnings announcement should be about the 22nd of April. I haven't decided what I'm gonna do about that, but generally the market is gonna stair step down from here until there's some clarity on the coronavirus. There is no clarity on the coronavirus. The coronavirus will be with us until the vacine is widely deployed. The entire question is how soon will you get worn out from the story?"
​

This would only apply if this event wasn't man made but something fundamentally wrong in the economy.

The virus will be with us. The economy will be open way before any vaccine. There's no wear down of a story scenario but when to open up the economy before negative feedback loop occurs that will cause long term damage. With money sitting on the sideline making negative returns vs inflation, the recovery will be as violent as the drop.

If the economy doesn't open soon then the value of our currency tanks and the negative feedback loop starts...which again is controlled by the people, not anything else at this point.

 

[goinfraftw]

Big Oil is using the coronavirus pandemic to push through the Keystone XL pipeline | Bill McKibben

This is massively screwed up

 

[qphan79]

I have about $44k of dry powder. Instead of waiting for the SP to drop to $440, I sold a weekly cash covered $455 put for $1,500. I hope this is a responsible way to get 100 shares. I can wait for the stock price to drop but I rather take an active approach. Maybe it will, maybe it won't. If it won't, I'll pocket the $1,500 and fish again the week after.

So I had sold a put Option last week at $480 for 4/3 expiration. I was surprised to see that I got assigned the shares this morning, since Friday’s close was at $480.01. Not a huge deal either way since i can just immediately sell Monday (hopefully not for a loss!) But isn’t that out of the money or did the put buyer exercised his/her option while while TSLA was in the $470 range optimistically?

 

[JRP3]

Uncle Jack has a sit-down chat on the successful conclusion of his salvage Model 3 project.

He also discussed what a disaster Tesla communications still remains. Around the 23 minute mark. "They're starting to look like the evil empire".

 

[ProfTournesol]

Big Oil is using the coronavirus pandemic to push through the Keystone XL pipeline | Bill McKibben

This is massively screwed up

They don't understand it will be their doom....

 

[Paracelsus]

I've found the AAPL long-term chart from its run-up to the crash in 2008 followed by is subsequent 10X+ run to be a quite interesting data point for what we might see with TSLA in 2020 and then up through 2030.......particularly because there is already a hard and fast example with AAPL of such a growth model following a massive market event. AAPL experienced a terrific surge from about $9 to $27 prior to the 2008 pull back. This was not unlike TSLA's surge from the 300's to 950. It took almost a year to recover to its $27 peak, after which it went on a 10-year steady climb to a 10x price. No way currently to understand the comparison between 2008 and the current situation for recovery time to 'pre-crash' price, but a strong example already exists to support a run to almost 10,000 in the decade following a recovery to ~950 for TSLA. Just food for thought, but with such thoughts I can easily see that TSLA is currently sitting at the January/February 2009 levels on this chart:

 

[Rohan]

Ok I need some not an advice. The UK tax year starts tomorrow. Which means I get another tranche of tax free savings to invest entirely in TSLA . The first tranche was September 2018 because that's when I got round to opening up an account and dealing with the necessary declaration for investing in dollar stocks. That was OK, under $300 all good. When April came around the stock was back down under $300 and obviously I thought I'd have some more of that. So obviously I missed the dip just a few weeks later and I don't really want to do that again. I don't have alot of time to do any research I'm not trading just accumulating for retirement. The question is am I going to get a better price say around quarter 2 results or is this really the last chance in the next few months for a relatively low price? I wasn't really expecting to get another chance at these levels so I'll probably just do it this week. Good luck to the longs and thanks for all the not advice to date

 

[Rammstein]

Big Oil is using the coronavirus pandemic to push through the Keystone XL pipeline | Bill McKibben

This is massively screwed up

OT
I think the Canadian oil sands get picked on way too much. Would you rather get oil from countries that have no environmental regulations, no human rights, and where only corrupt governments profit. Yes it does take a bit more CO2 to extract the oil from oil sands because of the SAGD process but it’s really not that much more than other extraction techniques especially when you have to ship that oil. Steam is used in many other parts of the world to extract oil but you never hear people protesting about that. Oil companies in Canada are continuing working on extracting the oil in a more sustainable manner. Also if this pipeline is not built then it hurts the Canadian people because we will not get a fair price for are oil. Right now western Canadian select is under 10. Not having enough pipeline capacity is destroying our economy. Plus if these pipelines don’t get built then there will be more shipping oil by rail which is worse for the environment. It’s probably a better idea to pick the lesser of two evils cause this oil is going to be produced anyways.

 

[mongo]

So I had sold a put Option last week at $480 for 4/3 expiration. I was surprised to see that I got assigned the shares this morning, since Friday’s close was at $480.01. Not a huge deal either way since i can just immediately sell Monday (hopefully not for a loss!) But isn’t that out of the money or did the put buyer exercised his/her option while while TSLA was in the $470 range optimistically?

May have been part of a vertical bull put credit spread that went poorly because they expected a closer to 500 close and did not want to be assigned shares.

Them: buy a put at 480, sell a put at 490
Assigned the shares at 490 which they then passsed onto you.

 

[StealthP3D]

I think the Canadian oil sands get picked on way too much. Would you rather get oil from countries that have no environmental regulations, no human rights, and where only corrupt governments profit. Yes it does take a bit more CO2 to extract the oil from oil sands because of the SAGD process but it’s really not that much more than other extraction techniques especially when you have to ship that oil. Steam is used in many other parts of the world to extract oil but you never hear people protesting about that. Oil companies in Canada are continuing working on extracting the oil in a more sustainable manner. Also if this pipeline is not built then it hurts the Canadian people because we will not get a fair price for are oil. Right now western Canadian select is under 10. Not having enough pipeline capacity is destroying our economy. Plus if these pipelines will just create more shipping oil by rail which is worse for the environment. It’s probably a better idea to pick the lesser of two evils cause this oil is going to be produced anyways.

Wrong forum.

 

[larmor]

I've found the AAPL long-term chart from its run-up to the crash in 2008 followed by is subsequent 10X+ run to be a quite interesting data point for what we might see with TSLA in 2020 and then up through 2030.......particularly because there is already a hard and fast example with AAPL of such a growth model following a massive market event. AAPL experienced a terrific surge from about $9 to $27 prior to the 2008 pull back. This was not unlike TSLA's surge from the 300's to 950. It took almost a year to recover to its $27 peak, after which it went on a 10-year steady climb to a 10x price. No way currently to understand the comparison between 2008 and the current situation for recovery time to 'pre-crash' price, but a strong example already exists to support a run to almost 10,000 in the decade following a recovery to ~950 for TSLA. Just food for thought, but with such thoughts I can easily see that TSLA is currently sitting at the January/February 2009 levels on this chart:

View attachment 529504

Tesla's apple/iphone moment will come with the next paradigm shift- it might be energy storage and microgrids and/or FSD. Arrival of cars with 500+ range will ensure a continued rise, and pull in buyers who were hesitant before. Those new buyers might not get the top of the line range model. So for the short term tesla needs GF(n) and for near long term a paradigm shift-- which is all ready coming.