Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[WarpedOne]

May have missed it but is there any benefit to Tesla Inc. in expanding their engineering, technical, innovative prowess to medical equipment?

It will become obvious in hindsight.

 

[powertoold]

It will become obvious in hindsight.

I'd rather them focus on killing big oil for good. More lives will be saved than working on medical equipment.

 

[mongo]

May have missed it but is there any benefit to Tesla Inc. in expanding their engineering, technical, innovative prowess to medical equipment? It's not really on point to the mission as it has nothing to do with transportation but from a humanitarian aspect, it has a tangential connection.
It's certainly not a priority once this virus settles down but down the road, I can see their first principle's problem solving as potentially waking up another entrenched industry that could possibly use a shake up. I'm comparing how the boring company exposed hugely wasteful and even corrupt business practices in a tight circle of competitors that was arguably price fixing if not gouging. Does anyone have any experience with the companies that provide medical equipment to know if there's a stagnation and exclusionary business model ripe for disruption?
It's probably a long shot and certainly not in their wheelhouse but if this ventilator exercise exposes inefficiencies and possible improvements that prove beneficial, I could see a spin-off once resources and priorities allow. I could see battery and OTA upgrades/monitoring, etc. having an advantage if those aren't already the norm.

I would files this under things Tesla could do, but would be better off not:

FDA is tons of paperwork, certification, and such. Which is a big part of why equipment is expensive. (Colleagues who went through a local med company)

The idea of supplying packs and drive unit to OEMs: Being a Tier1 to an OEM is also a pain. On the hook for warranty. Metric crap ton of near-useless meetings. (Spent 10 years doing this).
Tesla is best off doing things for Tesla. If OEMs want to buy parts as-is, let em.

 

[WarpedOne]

I'd rather them focus on killing big oil for good. More lives will be saved than working on medical equipment.

Don't focus on death, focus on life.
Death is already dead...

 

[StealthP3D]

May have missed it but is there any benefit to Tesla Inc. in expanding their engineering, technical, innovative prowess to medical equipment? It's not really on point to the mission as it has nothing to do with transportation but from a humanitarian aspect, it has a tangential connection.
It's certainly not a priority once this virus settles down but down the road, I can see their first principle's problem solving as potentially waking up another entrenched industry that could possibly use a shake up. I'm comparing how the boring company exposed hugely wasteful and even corrupt business practices in a tight circle of competitors that was arguably price fixing if not gouging. Does anyone have any experience with the companies that provide medical equipment to know if there's a stagnation and exclusionary business model ripe for disruption?
It's probably a long shot and certainly not in their wheelhouse but if this ventilator exercise exposes inefficiencies and possible improvements that prove beneficial, I could see a spin-off once resources and priorities allow. I could see battery and OTA upgrades/monitoring, etc. having an advantage if those aren't already the norm.

The medical device field is rife with corruption, protectionism, inefficiencies, lack of real innovation and profits. Tesla would clean-up if they decided to go there and they would probably attract top talent, people who were sick of the protectionism and corruption.

Then we would have an entirely new set of TSLAQ FUDsters trying to bring Tesla Medical down.

 

[Fobble]

Medtronic just finished on CNBC. The CEO said Tesla is using SpaceX facility to build solenoid valves for Medtronic. Is this the only Tesla participation or in addition to build the whole ventilator?

 

[mongo]

Medtronic just finished on CNBC. The CEO said Tesla is using SpaceX facility to build solenoid valves for Medtronic. Is this the only Tesla participation or in addition to build the whole ventilator?

SpaceX is making parts for Medtronic
Tesla is working on an entire system outside the normal ventilator supply chain

 

[Causalien]

Man. Needed to call my broker to buy an esoteric product, been on hold for an hour. What are other people calling their brokers for right now?

 

[qphan79]

Cha-ching! Who needs new sales when incremental software sales have 100% margins? Underpants $$$ collected!

Tesla to offer basic Autopilot for retired Model 3 variant, and it will be discounted too

Offer for Model 3s purchased before April 2019 (when AP became standard equipment).

Cheers!

Count me in as jumping on this!

 

[Prunesquallor]

Path forward and possible TSLA implications:

The American Enterprise Institute put forward a path for restarting the economy:
https://www.aei.org/research-products/report/national-coronavirus-response-a-road-map-to-reopening/

Phase II, which is defined as (emphases mine):
"During this phase, schools and businesses can reopen, and much of normal life can begin to resume in a phased approach. However, some physical distancing measures and limitations on gatherings will still need to be in place to prevent transmission from accelerating again.

...the trigger for a move to Phase II should be when a state reports a sustained reduction in cases for at least 14 days (i.e., one incubation period); and local hospitals are safely able to treat all patients requiring hospitalization without resorting to crisis standards of care."

Measuring reduction in cases is problematic since testing rates are so variable. Death rate is a trailing indicator and a sustained 14-day reduction in deaths should be a conservative indicator. The latest IHME predictions for California have peak death rate April 17. 14-day sustained reduction could be as early as May 1.
IHME | COVID-19 Projections

Nevada has had very few COVID-19 deaths, so predictions are less reliable. IHME predicts peak death rate April 20. 14-day sustained reduction could be as early as May 4.

So potential critical upcoming TSLA Events:

~April 22 - Earnings Report
~May 1 - Fremont reopens (based on IHME CA predictions and AEI guidelines)
~May 4 - Giga Nevada reopens (based on IHME NV predictions and AEI guidelines)

Maybe get those cheap shares while they last?

 

[Silent Ludicrosy]

Cha-ching! Who needs new sales when incremental software sales have 100% margins? Underpants $$$ collected!

Tesla to offer basic Autopilot for retired Model 3 variant, and it will be discounted too

Offer for Model 3s purchased before April 2019 (when AP became standard equipment).

Cheers!

They also did this a year ago. I purchased autopilot for $2000 for my LR RWD in March ‘19.

 

[LJS22]

Path forward and possible TSLA implications:

The American Enterprise Institute put forward a path for restarting the economy:
https://www.aei.org/research-products/report/national-coronavirus-response-a-road-map-to-reopening/

Phase II, which is defined as (emphases mine):
"During this phase, schools and businesses can reopen, and much of normal life can begin to resume in a phased approach. However, some physical distancing measures and limitations on gatherings will still need to be in place to prevent transmission from accelerating again.

...the trigger for a move to Phase II should be when a state reports a sustained reduction in cases for at least 14 days (i.e., one incubation period); and local hospitals are safely able to treat all patients requiring hospitalization without resorting to crisis standards of care."

Measuring reduction in cases is problematic since testing rates are so variable. Death rate is a trailing indicator and a sustained 14-day reduction in deaths should be a conservative indicator. The latest IHME predictions for California have peak death rate April 17. 14-day sustained reduction could be as early as May 1.
IHME | COVID-19 Projections

Nevada has had very few COVID-19 deaths, so predictions are less reliable. IHME predicts peak death rate April 20. 14-day sustained reduction could be as early as May 4.

So potential critical upcoming TSLA Events:

~April 22 - Earnings Report
~May 1 - Fremont reopens (based on IHME CA predictions and AEI guidelines)
~May 4 - Giga Nevada reopens (based on IHME NV predictions and AEI guidelines)

Maybe get those cheap shares while they last?

If they can get the factories reopened to start May then the quarter will be good. Not record breaking, but it will be nice in terms of what is going on. I think they have enough buyers out there to cover Q2.

At earnings for Q1 it will be interesting what they post. I’m thinking it will be a loss but hoping for a surprise.

We think the time down is being spent to be more efficient and make better cars, so that’s going to help margins in the long run and hopefully get to a 10k week production output.

Also as a side note I see many people taking notice to the pollution levels dropping. It would seem that’s a great advertisement for all Electric Cars. Might as well get the best one!

 

[SpeedGoat]

Elon has given clues on how Tesla can transition the world to EVs without supplying parts to bumbling non-integrated OEMs. He said at the GF3 opening that Tesla will create a "world car" that will be radically different from expectations. Let's dream about that.

I believe "radically different" means radically cheaper... much cheaper than anyone expects. One obvious possibility is a Cybercar that uses the lower-cost production methods of Cybertruck, such as a folded stainless-steel exoskeleton instead of stamped and painted panels. Some folks have already thought about what that could look like and cost.

Tesla Cybertruck Envisioned As Ultra Cheap $25,000 Cybercar

With the new battery tech that is coming, maybe $25k is too high an estimate.

Too ugly for the mass market? I doubt it. Cybertruck will accustom people to the cyber look, and IMO it's more attractive than the rococo abominations of Toyota. Also, when Tesla Network is operating, robotaxis won't need to look fancy.

How long will it be before Tesla is cranking out cheap robotaxis by the millions and replacing gas-powered trips by the billions? I don't think Tesla needs no stinkin' OEMs to help the mission.

I would like to see a vehicle much like that depicted above but based on a full-sized Cybertruck. A three-row Cyber-Suburban basically.

They would just have to carry the high roofline farther back and add the third row in a storage area behind the third row. It could probably be 95% the same vehicle.

 

[sparcs]

If they can get the factories reopened to start May then the quarter will be good. Not record breaking, but it will be nice in terms of what is going on. I think they have enough buyers out there to cover Q2.

There's no way Q2 will be "good". The first half of the quarter is when all the ships for Europe should probably leave. So European customers will be buying limited stock in inventory or waiting until the latter part of Q3 for the next round of ships.

Plus, Fremont will have to ramp back up. Suppliers will have to ramp back up. Rules at a local level will likely cause some restrictions. Logistics will likely still be messy due to all the restrictions.

There will be massively better quarters beyond Q2. I'm focusing on those.

 

[Artful Dodger]

They also did this a year ago. I purchased autopilot for $2000 for my LR RWD in March ‘19.

Interesting, I don't remember the AP offer, but I do remember the FSD Offer at the end of Q12019:

"Any customer who bought a Tesla prior to this week’s price adjustment will be able to upgrade to Autopilot for $2,000 or Full Self-Driving capability for an additional $3,000"​

Here's Tesla's blog post from March 1st, 2019: (from Archive.org; original post gone from Tesla.com )

https://web.archive.org/web/2019030...ng-autopilot-and-full-self-driving-capability

"All customers who bought a Tesla before yesterday’s price decrease will be able to buy the Autopilot or Full Self-Driving capability for half of what those features would normally cost after initial purchase.

"Autopilot, which enables automatic steering, accelerating and braking, normally costs $4,000 after delivery and Full Self-Driving normally costs $7,000 after delivery. Full Self-Driving capability includes Navigate on Autopilot, Advanced Summon, Auto Lane Change, Autopark and, later this year, will recognize and respond to traffic lights.

"Any customer who bought a Tesla prior to this week’s price adjustment will be able to upgrade to Autopilot for $2,000 or Full Self-Driving capability for an additional $3,000 (those who previously purchased Enhanced Autopilot and want to upgrade to Full-Self Driving capability only pay $2,000). In other words, for a customer who previously hadn’t purchased Autopilot plus Full Self-Driving, they will soon be able to do so for $6,000 less than before. Customers who previously purchased Full Self-Driving will receive an invitation to Tesla’s Early Access Program (EAP). EAP members are invited to experience and provide feedback on new features and functionality before they are rolled out to other customers."​

Cheers!

 

[SpeedGoat]

For every ventilator made, one life will be saved. 10,000 ventilators = 10,000 lives, 200,000 ventilators = 200,000 lives. This should be Tesla's priority and IMHO is much more important that M3 or MY numbers.

This is unfortunately not true. Most COVID-19 patients that end up on ventilators never recover.

The largest study so far to look at mortality among coronavirus patients on ventilators was done by the Intensive Care National Audit & Research Centre in London. It found that among 98 ventilated patients in the U.K., just 33 were discharged alive.

The numbers from a study of Wuhan, China, are even grimmer. Only 3 of 22 ventilated patients survived.

And a study of 18 ventilated patients in Washington state found that nine were still alive when the study ended, but only six had recovered enough to breathe on their own.

Ventilators Are No Panacea For Critically Ill COVID-19 Patients

 

[JRP3]

New Munro video out. So far the only "rigid" wiring is from the charge port to the pack. This makes installation faster and more precise since there are no cables flopping around. Sandy seems to think this will be lighter too but I don't see how a cable in a metal tube will save any weight. Unless the rigidity of the tube allows them to use aluminum instead of copper, but with the needed increase in cross section I don't think the savings would be significant.

 

[MikeQ]

They also did this a year ago. I purchased autopilot for $2000 for my LR RWD in March ‘19.

I wish they would offer an Enhanced Autopilot upgrade for Model 3. When they added free Autopilot, they removed some features from what was available before there was free Autopilot.

We have a 2018 Model 3 that has Enhanced and a 2019 that has free Autopilot and the 2019 doesn't have navigate on autopilot, auto lane change or smart summon.

I'm not really interested in FSD for $7k but I'd pay a few grand for the Enhanced part of EAP.

 

[Prunesquallor]

Interesting, I don't remember the AP offer, but I do remember the FSD Offer at the end of Q12019:

"Any customer who bought a Tesla prior to this week’s price adjustment will be able to upgrade to Autopilot for $2,000 or Full Self-Driving capability for an additional $3,000"​

Here's Tesla's blog post from March 1st, 2019: (from Archive.org; original post gone from Tesla.com )

Upgrading to Autopilot and Full Self-Driving Capability

"All customers who bought a Tesla before yesterday’s price decrease will be able to buy the Autopilot or Full Self-Driving capability for half of what those features would normally cost after initial purchase.

"Autopilot, which enables automatic steering, accelerating and braking, normally costs $4,000 after delivery and Full Self-Driving normally costs $7,000 after delivery. Full Self-Driving capability includes Navigate on Autopilot, Advanced Summon, Auto Lane Change, Autopark and, later this year, will recognize and respond to traffic lights.

"Any customer who bought a Tesla prior to this week’s price adjustment will be able to upgrade to Autopilot for $2,000 or Full Self-Driving capability for an additional $3,000 (those who previously purchased Enhanced Autopilot and want to upgrade to Full-Self Driving capability only pay $2,000). In other words, for a customer who previously hadn’t purchased Autopilot plus Full Self-Driving, they will soon be able to do so for $6,000 less than before. Customers who previously purchased Full Self-Driving will receive an invitation to Tesla’s Early Access Program (EAP). EAP members are invited to experience and provide feedback on new features and functionality before they are rolled out to other customers."​

Cheers!

I remember that. Oh, yeah. I DID that.
I love it when Elon is on a guilt trip.

 

[LJS22]

There's no way Q2 will be "good". The first half of the quarter is when all the ships for Europe should probably leave. So European customers will be buying limited stock in inventory or waiting until the latter part of Q3 for the next round of ships.

Plus, Fremont will have to ramp back up. Suppliers will have to ramp back up. Rules at a local level will likely cause some restrictions. Logistics will likely still be messy due to all the restrictions.

There will be massively better quarters beyond Q2. I'm focusing on those.

I guess it depends on personal expectations. Would 50k be good, or 75k?

If the demand was there they could move cars from China to other countries. Assuming tariffs aren’t bad and that Tesla Shanghai would have the parts available to continue building cars.

I don’t think Q2 will be close to Q1, but based on circumstances it can be decent. Really if Q2 can just show a pathway back on track for Tesla then it’s a success. Even if 2020 is just a bad year, then as you said there will be better quarters and luckily Tesla has the funding to be wide awake for those better days!