Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Dynastar]

Shouldn't it be a good idea to make almost any softwarepackage cheaper the older the car is?

Not the $10/month subscription ones but almost anything with a onetime cost.

Very few people that have or buy a 10 year old Tesla (in a few years) will pay full price for FSD or almost anything else. That's because if a car survives for 20 years on average you are then paying double the cost per monthly usage.

So if expected life for a Tesla is 20 years and FSD is $10k (just making numbers up) it would make sense to be able to buy FSD for 7.5k after 5 years, 5k after 10 years, 2.5k after 15 years. Really, just lower it with $500 (in this case) per year.

This way Tesla could still make money on 5+ years old cars that otherwise they will make very little on.

Let's say in a few years Tesla makes 2 million cars. That can be done with the Gigafactories already started. If say 10% of those gets an FSD upgrade at reduced price on average when 10 years old it could bring in something like 200k cars x $5k = $1Billion a year. In pure profit.

I don't see a downside.

I think the used car market takes care of this issue. If FSD is the primary reason people of the future want to buy a used Tesla then used Teslas that lack FSD will be discounted by almost the full FSD price compared to used cars that have it.

 

[StealthP3D]

Repeating this question here … anyone see anything in the news ?

Laid-off production workers are on enhanced unemployment insurance under the CARES act. Some employees are still working - they will receive their regular pay. This much should be self-evident.

Tesla is a much leaner organization than the large traditional automakers and this will be reflected in their financials through this period.

 

[ByeByeJohnny]

I think the used car market takes care of this issue. If FSD is the primary reason people of the future want to buy a used Tesla then used Teslas that lack FSD will be discounted by almost the full FSD price compared to used cars that have it.

Obviously there will be some of that. But that would make the choices for buying a used Teslas unnecessarily limited. You would need not only to find the right model, year, ,color, wheels etc but also degree of software. If half the cars don't have FSD that would halve the number of potential cars to buy for him if he wants it. With my proposal a used buyer wouldn't have to consider if the previous owner had paid for FSD or not. He could chose among all cars and if he finds a model without the software he could buy it for an appropriate amount and Tesla would make the extra money. Whatever amount if comes to it's free money for Tesla.

 

[Krugerrand]

That needs to be seen. I expect people who normally by a civic to be not convinced that Model 3 will "not have the same reliability concerns". They will be worried about battery longevity and cost of repairs.

Because the Model S has only been around now for 8 years. So yeah, Tesla’s just fall apart.

Yeah, I don’t care for what anyone thinks who can’t pull their head out of their ‘arm pit’ and show a certain level of common sense, forethought or otherwise.

Fortunately, there’s already 1,000,000 Tesla’s in the wild and they continue to multiple like rabbits on crack. Soon it’ll be obvious even to the most obtuse amongst us. And if not, it’s only a matter of time until there won’t be any more Civics to buy — stupidity problem solved.

 

[Buckminster]

New Munro video out. So far the only "rigid" wiring is from the charge port to the pack. This makes installation faster and more precise since there are no cables flopping around. Sandy seems to think this will be lighter too but I don't see how a cable in a metal tube will save any weight. Unless the rigidity of the tube allows them to use aluminum instead of copper, but with the needed increase in cross section I don't think the savings would be significant.

There appears to be zero rigid wiring in the MY. The metal tube just cuts down on the number of tie downs reducing installation complexity. The end game is a more rigid version of this most likely:

Patent here.

 

[Curt Renz]

I got back into TSLA today after being out for nearly a week. ARKK too.

I originally bought TSLA over seven years ago. At that time it was recommended by Craig Johnson, Managing Director and Chief Market Technician at Piper Jaffray (now Piper Sandler), in his weekly newsletter. Craig was a regular guest of mine on my old TV show.

Today in his newsletter, Craig listed TSLA among his five positive actionable ideas. Meanwhile Craig's associate, Piper Sandler analyst Alexander Potter, has TSLA rated as a BUY with an $820 price target.

 

[EVNow]

Laid-off production workers are on enhanced unemployment insurance under the CARES act. Some employees are still working - they will receive their regular pay. This much should be self-evident.

Were the employees "laid off" ?

 

[Papafox]

TSLA's end of the day is a real nailbiter. There's been clear capping at 510 today, and the cap has just been broken. Let's see if the manipulators can get her back down towards 510 of if TSLA runs higher into the close. Trying to get some popcorn to watch the show.

 

[LJS22]

TSLA's end of the day is a real nailbiter. There's been clear capping at 510 today, and the cap has just been broken. Let's see if the manipulators can get her back down towards 510 of if TSLA runs higher into the close. Trying to get some popcorn to watch the show.

Short covering happening across the market it seems. But someone will have to confirm that, the last 30 min have been vertical.

 

[StealthP3D]

Were the employees "laid off" ?

Do humans like sex?

 

[EVNow]

Do humans like sex?

Not sure why you think what I'm asking is weird or funny. Obviously it could make a difference in auto non-lease margins and thus forecast for Q1.

I've not seen any reports of hours workers in Fremont furloughed. Not sure how they are treated in China as well. If you have no particular useful information - may be just ignore my questions ?

 

[Big Dog]

Shouldn't it be a good idea to make almost any softwarepackage cheaper the older the car is?

Not the $10/month subscription ones but almost anything with a onetime cost.

Very few people that have or buy a 10 year old Tesla (in a few years) will pay full price for FSD or almost anything else. That's because if a car survives for 20 years on average you are then paying double the cost per monthly usage.

So if expected life for a Tesla is 20 years and FSD is $10k (just making numbers up) it would make sense to be able to buy FSD for 7.5k after 5 years, 5k after 10 years, 2.5k after 15 years. Really, just lower it with $500 (in this case) per year.

This way Tesla could still make money on 5+ years old cars that otherwise they will make very little on.

Let's say in a few years Tesla makes 2 million cars. That can be done with the Gigafactories already started. If say 10% of those gets an FSD upgrade at reduced price on average when 10 years old it could bring in something like 200k cars x $5k = $1Billion a year. In pure profit.

I don't see a downside.

Eventually, it becomes a matter of support cost, particularly for 'discontinued' models. Elon needs separate code (and servers?) to maintian all of those non-AP cars on the road, and as they become a smaller and smaller % of the fleet, the marginal cost to keep them operating (as non-AP) increases. At a certain point, its worth it to try a fire sale to get some AP cash and perhaps a few years later, just update everyone so the non-AP servers no longer have to be serviced and SW updates don't need to account for non-AP cars on the road. It becomes a matter of company efficiency.

 

[TSLAopt]

TSLA's end of the day is a real nailbiter. There's been clear capping at 510 today, and the cap has just been broken. Let's see if the manipulators can get her back down towards 510 of if TSLA runs higher into the close. Trying to get some popcorn to watch the show.

Why do people always reference stock price trading 'manipulators'? Perhaps in pink sheet illiquid stocks or in early premarket trading or late after-hours trading when there is very little liquidity that COULD BE possible (but very risk for those doing the trade price 'manipulating'). TSLA is very liquid stock trading millions of shares a day...there is a buy for every sell. And, every short seller must cover their short at some point (evidence of a lot of that going on the past couple months, short covering).

I like following these forums as there are some good insights here and there...but thinking the stock price of TSLA moves based on trading 'manipulation' is like 'fools gold' for explanation on why the stock is moving one way or another. Sometimes we just have to accept we don't know (e.g. often times could be big Fund's PM trying to lighten up some of their position in a portfolio rebalance for example).

This complaint I have is not to be confused with information dissemination manipulation which DOES happen with TSLA (e.g. reporters aligned with TSLAQ or publications putting out fear mongering 'click baity' headlines about TSLA).

 

[ZeApelido]

My personal expectations are to expect a massive disruption to Tesla in Q2. There is no point in me obsessing if it is 30k, 40k, 50k or 75k deliveries. What does one quarter change since everyone knows that it was out of Tesla's control?

I'm more interested in recovery for Q3 and beyond. Tesla should have the supply chain, factories, and logistics restored by then.

Just allows TSLAQ excuses for excess FUD again. Hopefully it doesn't work.

 

[AlMc]

Because the Model S has only been around now for 8 years. So yeah, Tesla’s just fall apart.

Yeah, I don’t care for what anyone thinks who can’t pull their head out of their ‘arm pit’ and show a certain level of common sense, forethought or otherwise.

Fortunately, there’s already 1,000,000 Tesla’s in the wild and they continue to multiple like rabbits on crack. Soon it’ll be obvious even to the most obtuse amongst us. And if not, it’s only a matter of time until there won’t be any more Civics to buy — stupidity problem solved.

Off topic: But, unfortunately cocaine decreases fertility rates....

 

[Thekiwi]

If they can get the factories reopened to start May then the quarter will be good. Not record breaking, but it will be nice in terms of what is going on. I think they have enough buyers out there to cover Q2.

At earnings for Q1 it will be interesting what they post. I’m thinking it will be a loss but hoping for a surprise.

We think the time down is being spent to be more efficient and make better cars, so that’s going to help margins in the long run and hopefully get to a 10k week production output.

Also as a side note I see many people taking notice to the pollution levels dropping. It would seem that’s a great advertisement for all Electric Cars. Might as well get the best one!

An early May opening means they will be limited to 3-4 weeks production for EU that would have a chance to arrive in time to be delivered in quarter. Would not be a terrible result all things considered.

 

[Singuy]

An early May opening means they will be limited to 3-4 weeks production for EU that would have a chance to arrive in time to be delivered in quarter. Would not be a terrible result all things considered.

Pretty sure all over produced cars not delivered went to Europe already or east cost to maximize the time usage between open and end of q2 for easy delivery on the west coast.

 

[RobStark]

Keep in mind that models also say that the virus will blow up a few months after social distancing ends, worse than now

Yesterday, I spoke to a friend of mine that is an emergency room nurse here in Los Angeles.

They told staff to expect a 2nd CV wave in January.

 

[Unpilot]

multiple like rabbits on crack.

Please explain more?

 

[printf42]

OT:
A clip randomly showed up in my YouTube feed today, with the title:
BREAKING Tesla cars full of radiation.

Not giving you links, it turns out to be an April fool’s joke. He put radioactive rocks in the car and pretended it was the batteries that radiates.
Wasted 10 more min of my life worrying about my investments.(on top of the years passed)

Then I noticed what’s next in the play list:

Yeah, good job Tesla, teach this guy a lesson, don’t let him think a bit of lawyer money can buy him YouTube fame.
(Again, no links, don’t want this guy to be paid except whatever he got from TSLAQ.)

NOT FUNNY!!!