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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
jeewee3000
Active Member
Your crystal ball needs to be polished. It tells you things only 5 minutes in advance.
Flux capacitor and Dilithium crystal's both need work to get much further out.
Favguy
Member
Not sure about the rest of Europe, but there is a perception with many Brits. that US made products, especially cars, are a bit shoddy. It's also of note, that within the UK Tesla owners groups there is a lot of dissatisfaction over panel fit and finish with examples of poor paintwork. It may be that it's noticed more over here as the European and Japanese cars people are switching from were of a much higher standard than the domestic US made cars previously owned by US buyers. I personally suspect that Chinese examples may well be of a higher cosmetic quality/finish than US built cars. The Berlin built cars will be the ones we really want
Its been visible before that we will go up again and considering that the low was at $350 its up now 100%. I did not sell a single stock and don't intend to as you can review in my articles and videos why I believe Tesla will actually benefit from the Crisis. A statement not long ago many called me nuts to make it.
A lot of popular Blogger, YouTuber and Supporter called the Crisis to be a big downturn for Tesla for the years to come who now all of a sudden turn around and say the opposite. I don't want to name people and everybody can be wrong and I've been wrong myself in the past too but I recommend people to list to what has been published just a few weeks ago and balance the judgement and basis of today versus what they said in the past. Its easy to call a stock in a bull market to increase and in a bear market to go down but thats not why we have this forum do we?
Since to be at $700 can fairly be claimed to be $270 below where we once has been some may call the stock still down but I would answer, it does not matter and we will see prices above $900 again if not ATH in 2020. A long term view has a much better success rate than short term and although many here claim you should sell high and buy low IOW swing trade, I only can respond that statistics prove that it does not work. The few people who succeed I congratulate but everyone needs to carefully assess if he is one of the few that can be sustainably successful. Its like playing against the bak that always wins. If you can do magic its great but average counts and 50% are not able to beat the average.
To add to this people who got fifty rich over time are people you have a long time buy and hold strategy and its hard to not blink if the stock you own goes from $969 down to $350. That are they days you earn your money by actually doing - nothing. Doing nothing is the hardest thing and making up your own mind regardless of the people call the end of the day too.
I do expect a V-shape recovery like Ark Invest did and Tesla to do much better in the crisis and exponentially better once its near to over and later completely over.
If you want to read more about my thoughts including my monthly investment letter you find sources listed in my footer.
Stretch2727
Engineer and Car Nut
From my perspective no surprise the Model Y does not have the updated wiring. I thought this was understood. Elon was pretty clear 3 years ago that he sided on time to market the critical measure for the car. It would be based on the model 3 to get it to market sooner.
Tesla Model Y is coming to market sooner using Model 3 architecture, says Elon Musk - Electrek
jeewee3000
Active Member
I share your views completely.
(Just in case it wasn't clear, my crystal ball comment was just an attempt at humor and nostalgia. I remember vividly during the $3xx to $960 rally we were given weekly updates from @Unpilot 's crystal ball.)
Not sure why people would try to interpret Munro’s comments about wiring as negative.
To me it sounds like “Elon said there will be ice cream machine and chocolate fountain in their cars, sadly not in this one(yet)”
I read it as exactly what he said, he didn’t see something he would be delighted to see, but nothing negative at all.
Expectations were super high that the wiring would show up even in this thread. It was an obsession with the patent applications. It's a set up to be disappointed when you set expectations absurdly high.
To me, it seems pretty clear that Sandy Munro is enjoying his new celebrity status that comes with being involved with Tesla. Not saying it is impairing his ability to be fair in his criticism. But it feels like he’s taken the attitude of “if you can’t beat ‘em, join ‘em!”
What's the point of stating what he would like to see?
I thought this is was review of a car and not of Munro psyche but obviously I was mistaken, it was about Munro's wishes and ideas.
Him opening the YT channel and stating the obvious "this here you see is a door, and this round thing is a bolt" renders him useless.
ZachF
Active Member
Are all you guys ready for the bandwagoning from the talking heads when Tesla is the world's only profitable automaker that's increasing sales? Ready to hear them echo the same arguments they used to call us crazy for making?
So long as they steer their flock of sheep to deposit money into my trading account I say the more shameless the better.
ByeByeJohnny
Active Member
As I understand it that's what his company is doing. They have suggestions for car manufacturers in what they can improve, quality or costwise, and then they sell that info to both that specific car manufacturer and other interested parties.
Not surprisingly Tesla didn't pay for the Model 3 teardown and, likely, not for the model Y either. But he can very likely get all the ICE manufacturers to pay for a Tesla teardown. Even after doing these videos.
Apparently they still gave Tesla a list of 250 suggestions for free from the model 3 teardown.
And Elon appearing at the same podcast as Munro this week seems like a kind of endorsement from Elon.
j6Lpi429@3j
Closed
I don't think it was unreasonable to expect new wiring in the model Y. Whats it being saved for? the cybertruck? Tesla is a company that talks a lot about moving fast and constant improvement. I honestly did think they would be doing this by now. I *do* expect this change to show up in the middle of the model Y production though. Maybe profit margins are so good already and demand so high, that the downtime to shift to a new method of installing the wiring makes no economic sense right now.
In other words, they cant stop for anything right now, even if they know there is a potentially much cheaper/quicker way to do things the next time they get to re-tool.
In other words, they cant stop for anything right now, even if they know there is a potentially much cheaper/quicker way to do things the next time they get to re-tool.
i doubt i'd be qualified enough to answer most of the questions. i do know some stuff from the clearing and settlement perspective...after the trade is made (a decent book on this stuff - fyi amazon link - https://www.amazon.com/After-Trade-Made-Processing-Transactions/dp/1591841275)
vaguely, from the trading perspective, how they structure / hedge / manipulate long and short selling varies...many have posted about this in past.
but from trade to settlement, and then maintenance of the short, there are pretty strict rules for the individual customer account. the rules differ for market-maker. like all rules, theres room for interpretation, and then the enforcement of them is only as good as the independent audit that may/may not discover any breakage of those rules.
in US market the broker probably maintains a 'shortable' and often a 'non-shortable' (securities the broker isnt willing to take the risk of loss) list.
basically, they must not allow a cleared customer account to short any security without first knowing there is inventory, or ability to 'locate' a borrow to cover the short sale. the inventory comes from long margin shares, fully-paid shares enrolled in the broker's lending program, or borrows from street counterparties in the securities finance sector of the market, that has become an ever increasing money maker for many banks and brokers on the street in the world of flat rates. the more in demand and harder to borrow, the higher the rate.
they're supposed to prevent the order from being sent to the exchange(s) unless its shortable.
if shortable, customer sells 100 shares of tsla
the broker either uses in-house inventory (from excess margin shares or those enrolled in fully-paid lending)
or they go to the street and grab 100 shares from another street participant for cash.
these open loans/borrows between counterparties are marked to market at daily closing price, usually at a locked rate...but different counterparty relationships may have flex terms or floating rates (sometimes term deals to take advantage of the timing of a specific event)
when the short is 'covered' or bought back, the loaned stock is returned to the counterparty, and the cash collateral (at latest mark price) is returned to the borrowing broker.
until then, the borrower (ultimately the short, not the broker borrowing on behalf of the short) assumes any liability related to outcome of corporate actions or other events that may occur. but sometimes a broker may mismanage, through error, or unforeseen circumstances, and be caught on hook because the customer gets blown out...this is one reason why brokers maintain a non-shortable list..because its too risky to let their customers borrow.
but, the analysis that goes in to allowing a customer to short to begin with is mainly about margin that will be extended to the customer, dependent upon customer equity, risk profile, and the type of margin parameters the customer is set up on. prime accounts / hedge funds are usually on portfolio margin, which allows much higher leverage (5-20x) on securities and derivatives, even higher on FX trading (20-40x), than a account like mine or yours that uses standard Reg-T margin, which is usually 2.5-3 to 1, depending on your account concentration. if you dont have the equity required to maintain the short in the event it goes against you, your maintenance margin requirement rises as your net liquidation value (or account value) decreases...margin calls, liquidations
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Actually he's had celebrity status within the auto industry for more than a decade. The only thing new is that with Tesla he's found retail investors who are simultaneously product owners and boosters. That is unprecedented. The closest thing ever has probably been Porsche, and the owners are rarely investors also. Because TSLA is unlike anything else he suddenly can monetize broad access to subject matter that is intrinsically arcane, so much so that securities analysts never get this deep. Until now his customers have been almost entirely auto manufacturers themselves.
FWIW, around the world there are only a half dozen or so companies who have Munro's depth and range for autos and BEV's specifically. Teardown analysis is traditional for manufacturing and even financial product design. Universities teach this stuff:
Sandborn-teardown-revision-4.pdf
OK, I linked to the University of Maryland because i taught there many years ago, briefly.
It seems to me that partly because of Munro, we are learning the extent to which Elon was correct when he said something like 'retail investors know more than the institutional ones'. (not an exact quotation). Frankly this all is giving me much more confidence about TSLA than I had before.
Until this Munro Tesla stuff began he was known mostly as a Six Sigma guru and manufacturing process specialist.
Sandy Munro - Biography
and this is where he learned his craft:
Valiant TMS | Intelligent Automation
even though most well-informed people think of him as a "Ford guy".
With the knowledge we can gain by having accurate comparisons between Tesla technology/manufacturing and those of others we can help justify our subjective opinions of Tesla superior technology, engineering and manufacturing design. Perhaps many of us think we already know this stuff, but thanks to Sandy and the limited insight we have to German and Japanese teardowns we do not need to speculate, we can know.
Mo City
Active Member
Yesterday it was Oppenheimer.
This morning it's Credit Suisse (with an assist from Joplin MO).
EDIT: This is now getting cray cray. Is there early COVID-19 news I missed?
This morning it's Credit Suisse (with an assist from Joplin MO).
EDIT: This is now getting cray cray. Is there early COVID-19 news I missed?
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Keeping the high level of commonality with the 3 was probably a good idea in terms of avoiding another 'production hell' ramp up. The Y seems to have gone very smoothly. Using the castings was pretty low risk and a significant manufacturing improvement.
Perhaps they will use the new wiring in the S/X first. This would have two advantages:
- it would be low risk as these models are no longer the main income stream. Any production problems associated with introducing this technology would not have a huge impact on the bottom line.
- it would keep up the idea that S/X are the flagship models
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