Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[UnknownSoldier]

I've been confused about the recent bull market but based on Amazon, Google, Apple, and Tesla's earnings I expect that to continue. The lesson seems to be "we were really killing it until covid popped up and we think that we will be back on track after a quarter of pain".

I have a pretty interesting theory about why the market has been rallying but I don't know what thread to post it in these days.

 

[Krugerrand]

My wife has been asking me to sell our stocks to take profit and then wait for it to drop to rebuy. I'm in the long camp and did not want to time the market since there is no guarantee that we can buy back at lower price.
So you can imagine her madness when we didn't sell when stock went to 960 only to see it drop to 300+ weeks later.
Yesterday, she told me to sell today. So I didn't want to sell at 860 when market opened.
Now it dropped 100 points.

On one hand, I understand her logic. On the other hand, I think it's a better strategy to hold it long term and don't just watch it daily and worry about timing it.

What your advice?

Divorce.

No, more seriously. If a married couple don’t have the same money philosophies then to avoid a lot of money arguments and potential marital upheaval, each needs to have some separate cash to do as they please.

Make sure there’s money enough set aside to pay bills, to save for college tuition or a rainy day or a pandemic, and then pay yourselves an allowance and each do as you will with it - the other minds their own money business.

Problem solved. You’re welcome.

 

[Zero CO2]

There are a numbers of members on this forum I hold in the highest regard—especially for their education, training, and skills related to stock analysis and the market in general. However, I am convinced that Tesla market activity is a Black Swan. The company, it’s technologies and it’s market activity, especially it’s share price are an anomaly. They will be studied at business schools for years to come.

It’s not that I don’t value their perspectives; I simply see Tesla in class to itself. It is impossible to draw parallels to any other company.

HBR Title will be something like this

"Tesla Puts its Competitors in every Industry it enters into an Innovators Dilemma"

Section 1 Batteries
Section 2 Autos
Section 3 Inter-modal Trucking
Section 4 Roofing
Section 5 HVAC
Section 6 Ride Sharing
Section 7 TBD

will list all the so called industry leaders and their eventual demise

Wow ...I just realized i am becoming a real fan boy .... got my rose colored glasses on now

 

[Krugerrand]

But it's like that here and we're all supposedly friends.

The standard is so low right now, are you sure I’d do worse?

 

[Nocturnal]

I have a pretty interesting theory about why the market has been rallying but I don't know what thread to post it in these days.

 

[willow_hiller]

This is probably so eminently clear to the veterans on this board that people don't bother discussing it, but I did just have a personal revelation about the biggest hole in the TSLAQ theory: their vocalness.

I imagine in the minds of a lot of TSLAQ, they see themselves as leading characters in "The Big Short." But you know what those protagonists didn't do? They didn't shout their discoveries to the rooftops; they kept it quiet among themselves and their personal connections.

If a single TSLAQ follower had concrete proof of any actual financial wrongs, they would load up a short position, report their findings to the SEC, and quietly sell as much as possible for as long as possible. But TSLAQ behaves in the exact opposite way. They shout as loudly as they can on their social media platforms, and quietly cover their positions over time. They're not trying to expose anything, they're trying to make a quick buck off of anyone gullible enough to listen to them.

 

[Krugerrand]

Today they have all the bears on tv and the stock drops. Tomorrow they will bring out the bulls. I love this game. It's very profitable also.

Bob? Can you just give us a heads up when they let the Unicorns out of the barn? Thank you.

 

[EL0NTRK]

Divorce.

No, more seriously. If a married couple don’t have the same money philosophies then to avoid a lot of money arguments and potential marital upheaval, each needs to have some separate cash to do as they please.

Make sure there’s money enough set aside to pay bills, to save for college tuition or a rainy day or a pandemic, and then pay yourselves an allowance and each do as you will with it - the other minds their own money business.

Problem solved. You’re welcome.

Thanks.
I think my disagreement which I may not explain clearly to her is the tax implication of her day trading strategy.

For example: she would sell a bunch of stock for 500K gain. Of those, she would have to set aside 200K for tax from the 40% tax rate.
If she does not set aside the money for tax, then at tax time, she would have to sell and may be at a loss to pay for the tax.
The more trades she does, the issue magnifies.

On the other hand, I can set a side a portion of my core stocks and transfer them into a tax free or tax deferred retirement account so all the gain is locked in there until we can use them during retirement.
We have no immediate needs for cash at the moment and all these keeping track of the tax obligations just not worth the upside.

 

[mblakele]

This is probably so eminently clear to the veterans on this board that people don't bother discussing it, but I did just have a personal revelation about the biggest hole in the TSLAQ theory: their vocalness.

I imagine in the minds of a lot of TSLAQ, they see themselves as leading characters in "The Big Short." But you know what those protagonists didn't do? They didn't shout their discoveries to the rooftops; they kept it quiet among themselves and their personal connections.

If a single TSLAQ follower had concrete proof of any actual financial wrongs, they would load up a short position, report their findings to the SEC, and quietly sell as much as possible for as long as possible. But TSLAQ behaves in the exact opposite way. They shout as loudly as they can on their social media platforms, and quietly cover their positions over time. They're not trying to expose anything, they're trying to make a quick buck off of anyone gullible enough to listen to them.

This article might shed some light on the mentality:

How to detect business fraud

 

[StealthP3D]

If a single TSLAQ follower had concrete proof of any actual financial wrongs, they would load up a short position, report their findings to the SEC, and quietly sell as much as possible for as long as possible. But TSLAQ behaves in the exact opposite way. They shout as loudly as they can on their social media platforms, and quietly cover their positions over time. They're not trying to expose anything, they're trying to make a quick buck off of anyone gullible enough to listen to them.

Sorry to blow holes in that theory but TSLAQ people actually have tried very hard to get government agencies involved (including the SEC). But their theories are so "out there" that the SEC doesn't need to look very deep to start ignoring them and shaking their heads. They have also worked agencies that have anything to do with safety. Trying to convince the NHTSA to recall Teslas for fire danger or "whompy wheels". All these agencies are onto TSLAQ's crazy theories.

While I don't have any direct evidence, I would be shocked if some of them hadn't written letters to private insurance companies in an attempt to get them to refuse insurance based on the dangers of Autopilot or battery fires. I would put money that they had.

This isn't the first time Einhorn has intimated financial shenanigans but Tesla can't successfully sue him for libel because he doesn't state it as a fact, he merely raises the question that it might be happening behind the curtains. Which is why it's FUD (fear, uncertainty and doubt). Someone who doesn't know the back story might be reluctant to put their hard-earned money on the line while he's raising such questions. Smarter people just shake their heads at how disgusting he is.

 

[Krugerrand]

A little AH OT news
https://www.washingtonpost.com/tech...ntracts-spacecraft-land-nasa-astronauts-moon/
Jeff Bezos and Elon Musk win contracts for spacecraft to land NASA astronauts on the moon

https://www.washingtonpost.com/tech...ntracts-spacecraft-land-nasa-astronauts-moon/

“NASA said that Blue Origin was furthest along with its project and awarded it the largest award, $579 million. Dynetics, which has paired with the Sierra Nevada Corp., would receive $253 million. SpaceX, which bid its Starship spacecraft, won $135 million. The contracts are for the first stage of the program and would last through February 2021. After that, NASA could decide to select whether to proceed with all three partners or chose two of the three."

Side note: I was on the announcement telecon (I'm on one of the "other" teams) and during the press Q&A a reporter tried to drag Elon's pandemic comment into the mix. She was shut down fast. Elon was on and later gave some gratuitous and innocuous statements.

Huh? I guess Elon is just going to have show them again by beating the others to the punch with less money. SSDD.

 

[mickificki]

Our own @DaveT interviewed Gene Munster. Excellent interview, very informative.

 

[Right_Said_Fred]

It’s been an interesting day, with another great quarter by Tesla, Elons strong words, plenty of analyst upgrades and another 100 point move, unfortunately not fully in the right direction.

But that’s not all. We’ve seen many posts by people who normally just lurk around or inhabit other TMC-sections. It’s always good to hear some fresh sounds and different viewpoints (if the intentions are good). Please keep posting on those 90 other days when there is no quarterly report

We’ve also seen a few with less good intentions pop up and one of those is now enjoying a well deserved long break.

And... @anthonyj is back! You were missed. 1800, here we come!

 

[Hock1]

I don't think he will be.

Sure Elon is science based, but the problem is, the science hasn't caught up with this virus yet.

He's commenting on things absolutely that are not yet absolutely know-able.

And calling people "facists" who are just trying to put us in a spot where it really doesn't go totally out of control.

I mean, sorry, but his black and white position is a "nuts" point of view to have right now. It is one that is not based on science. Because the science is not black and white.

Because no one really knows anything yet so static absolute positions are all stupid.

And Elon is firmly in stupid land right now.

And the stock is reacting to it.

He needs to stop shouting at clouds and focus on navigating TSLA through the reality of what is going on.

TSLA is in a way better position that most, so get to capitalizing on that.

In a way, I am envious of your simplistic view of the world. I submit that you are the one who is unhinged. You are the one that sees everything in black and white. You contribute nothing of value here. Tell you what: in a few months or a year or however long it takes to be able to look back and piece together what really transpired here, I'll take you off ignore and we can discuss what was right and what was wrong. GL.

 

[Driver Dave]

Very strange time.

Amazing quarter yet down day.

Elon supporting James O'Keefe's tweet.

Things I never thought I’d see.

 

[Krugerrand]

Thanks.
I think my disagreement which I may not explain clearly to her is the tax implication of her day trading strategy.

For example: she would sell a bunch of stock for 500K gain. Of those, she would have to set aside 200K for tax from the 40% tax rate.
If she does not set aside the money for tax, then at tax time, she would have to sell and may be at a loss to pay for the tax.
The more trades she does, the issue magnifies.

On the other hand, I can set a side a portion of my core stocks and transfer them into a tax free or tax deferred retirement account so all the gain is locked in there until we can use them during retirement.
We have no immediate needs for cash at the moment and all these keeping track of the tax obligations just not worth the upside.

And you aren’t wrong. So, if you follow what I said, she can learn about taxes without frustrating you and herself.

If there’s an easy solution to reduce stress in your relationship, seems you’d want to just do it, no? Especially when there’s so much outside stress pounding on you that you have little to no control over.

There are four key topics that hurt a marriage - not necessarily in this order; money, religion, politics and family.

If you both have the same basic beliefs and philosophies on those hot buttons you will never argue about anything more important than who let the dogs out.

The last time my spouse and I fought about money or TSLA was never. We might have a heated discussion about which island we buy first.

 

[jerry33]

I've read dozens of articles covering the Tesla earnings call from independent media outlets, and they nearly all contain in some combination:

expletive (laced or filled or laden) (rant or tirade). E.g. expletive filled tirade, expletive laden rant, expletive laced rant etc.

Nearly every single one. It sure seems suspicious that they would all describe Elon as having sworn repeatedly when in fact he only swore once, and all use the same few words to describe it.

Nearly every news article has been copied from the first one out there. (Reviews are the same way). When you read or hear several news stories that give the same wrong easily checked information, it's pretty obvious that lazy journalism won and all but one were copied.

 

[Driver Dave]

I've read dozens of articles covering the Tesla earnings call from independent media outlets, and they nearly all contain in some combination:

expletive (laced or filled or laden) (rant or tirade). E.g. expletive filled tirade, expletive laden rant, expletive laced rant etc.

Nearly every single one. It sure seems suspicious that they would all describe Elon as having sworn repeatedly when in fact he only swore once, and all use the same few words to describe it.

I agree. Though I disagreed with what Elon was saying the actual audio was not the unhinged rant the click bait headlines made it out to be.

 

[feigen66]

Thanks.
I think my disagreement which I may not explain clearly to her is the tax implication of her day trading strategy.

My wife and I have three brokerage accounts: two accounts owned by each other and operated independently, and one joint account where we have shared interest. In our own brokerage account we diverted some money to experiment but not enough to hurt out financial positions while the joint account needs to be operated jointly with agreement.

So far so good for the last 10+ years.

 

[Mkorpal]

And you aren’t wrong. So, if you follow what I said, she can learn about taxes without frustrating you and herself.

If there’s an easy solution to reduce stress in your relationship, seems you’d want to just do it, no? Especially when there’s so much outside stress pounding on you that you have little to no control over.

There are four key topics that hurt a marriage - not necessarily in this order; money, religion, politics and family.

If you both have the same basic beliefs and philosophies on those hot buttons you will never argue about anything more important than who let the dogs out.

The last time my spouse and I fought about money or TSLA was never. We might have a heated discussion about which island we buy first.

There's a 5th, but it's kind of private.