Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[kelly]

He's allowed to take a crap in his bathtub as well, but it wouldn't be particularly encouraging if he did.

This comment is troubling to me, as I've been known to tell people that I would drink Elon Musk's bath water.

 

[Artful Dodger]

After-action Report: Fri, May 01, 2020: (Full-Day's Trading)

VWAP: $719.44
Volume: 32,546,280
Traded: $23,415,104,005.77 ($23.42 B)

Closing SP / VWAP: 97.48%
(TSLA closed BELOW today's Avg SP)​

FINRA Short/Total Volume = 40.7% (40th Percentile rank Shorting)
FINRA Volume / Total NASDAQ Vol = 51.2% (55th Percentile rank FINRA Reporting)

Comment: "TSLA up 63% YTD; Chairholders loose their chairs"

 

[feigen66]

in the coronavirus thread we have long been discussing the need to discuss how to reopen. It is not just a binary on/off.

Elon never said open a factory like binary:
Elon Musk on Twitter

They also have submitted the safety plan to Alameda but being denied by the county:
Tesla Giga Nevada set to reopen on May 4 with new safety measures

 

[Krugerrand]

I totally get that. The problem (for me) is the remote possibility that his behavior and stress is a signal of deeper issues at the company, ...

Um...did you listen to the ER call??

This is how fear works when you open the door. It makes crap up to support itself and grow until it takes over.

People need to embrace some zen. I think you should check the Feng Shui in your house.

 

[azaz]

Elon never said open a factory like binary:
Elon Musk on Twitter

They also have submitted the safety plan to Alameda but being denied by the county:
Tesla Giga Nevada set to reopen on May 4 with new safety measures

he’s been leaning way more in to the government fascism/death count is fake argument then stressing a common sense safe plan to reopen. I’ve repeatedly said his time would be better spent avoiding conspiracy theories and stressing the infrastructure needed to safely re-open on the private and public level.

 

[Unpilot]

After a nice IPA..or three a chance to reflect.
The basic problem is we are living in a information void. We don't know what discussions Mr. Musk has had with Cal government officials.
We don't know how many Dr's he has consulted.

So as for myself when I have a lack of information I tend to be quiet.
Other seem to like to scream from the rooftops that the sky is falling.

Now I need another IPA ..or three .....and work on some island plans

 

[feigen66]

he’s been leaning way more in to the government racism/death count is fake argument then stressing a common sense safe plan to reopen. I’ve repeatedly said his time would be better spent avoiding conspiracy theories and stressing the infrastructure needed to safely re-open on the private and public level.

There is no denied of Elon's childish behavior. I just want to point out the fact that Elon want to open factory like binary switch is simply false. That's FUD in my book.

If you are sick of people spreading conspiracy theories, then you also need to be held to the same standard to be credible.

 

[Krugerrand]

You should give her a shovel and have her dig in the dirt. It works wonders for most women, even the ones that didn't know they loved to dig in the dirt. If yours is different, no harm, no foul.

You’re just going to want to make sure she’s not digging your grave.

 

[azaz]

There is no denied of Elon's childish behavior. I just want to point out the fact that Elon want to open factory like binary switch is simply false. That's FUD in my book.

If you are sick of people spreading conspiracy theories, then you also need to be held to the same standard to be credible.

Fair enough. For me I guess, his calls to give our liberty back or whatever don’t stress enough the need to be safe because it is masked in inflammatory conspiracy language riddled with misinformation. However I don’t think we are far apart on this issue and I enjoyed your perspective.

 

[Ocelot]

The first time Elon announced he felt the stock price was too high...I liked it. He was being honest. This led me to invest more.

Likely he is still being honest. Hence, the stock at 800 was overpriced. Can we all agree he probably has more insight into that than anyone on this board? This includes battery day by the way. He knows what’s coming, likely in three weeks, and there is no way he tweets stock is overpriced not taking whatever announcements coming up very short term into consideration (IMO).

Yet people here blast others for selling. yet all they did was listen to the CEO.

Is that not better than taking some random posters “take on the situation” which usually involves how he is actively manipulating the stock with his underlying emotional genius?


As for the other raging debate. It’s easy to say open the economy up while on your couch, reading Twitter all day. To open up the economy, you need well thought out plans with two main foundations to start with. rapid reliable testing, and a team to contact trace positives. You need pillars of workplace plans not only for the space, but labour relations planning including how to manage employee and family illness. You need pillars of healthcare, pillars of PPE availability and on and on.

So far most of the plans I see for reopening things, just address temporal aspects. Kinda, cross your fingers, see how it goes, and if it goes ok, we will again cross our fingers, roll the dice and expand the social circle.

I am not sure people understand fully the PPE shortage still. A few months ago, you would literally throw out your mask, every time you left that patients room. If you went in three times that day, you used three masks.Now you use one per shift, and often have to re use that one. Point being, there is no wiggle room in the system.



I think this is worth a read, wether you agree or not, it shows you what is happening, and just how quick things can get worse.


Running out of Outlets

 

[bubb]

Elon has repeatedly commented on Tesla share price being too high over the years.

A few examples:

• Oct. 2013: "The stock price that we have is more than we have any right to deserve"
  
• Sept. 2014: "I think our stock price is kind of high right now to be totally honest"
  
• July 2017: "I’ve gone on the record several times that the stock price is higher than we have the right to deserve and that’s for sure true based on where we are today"
  
• May 2020: "Tesla stock price is too high imo"

And like today, he has repeatedly said he thinks the long-term for Tesla is bright.

More examples here: All the times Elon Musk has trash-talked Tesla’s stock price as overvalued

It's all part of the simulation.

Thanks for sharing that, I had forgotten how frequently he has done this in the past. I'd just caution that this is the first time he has done it since the SEC settlement in Sept 2018. I don't want to get in the weeds on this but he had to know this would likely affect the price (based on past instances where he more or less did the same thing) which is sort of the definition of material information for a shareholder. I think it is a virtual certainty the SEC will ask for the information they are entitled to by the settlement regarding this tweet, but hopefully it's left at that. There is much more important work to be done and it requires 100% focus by leadership, it would be a bad look for the SEC to pursue IMO.

 

[TrendTrader007]

007

@TrendTrader007
·
1s

$TSLA stockCharts is extremely scary on weekly it is to inverted hammer and double top I fully expect to go down to $325 a share in short order it could even test all time low off $175 over the next several weeks

 

[InDaClub]

he’s been leaning way more in to the government racism/death count is fake argument then stressing a common sense safe plan to reopen. I’ve repeatedly said his time would be better spent avoiding conspiracy theories and stressing the infrastructure needed to safely re-open on the private and public level.

“An empty vessel makes the loudest sound”

― Plato

 

[Krugerrand]

Will you still be around in this thread? I value your posts, Curt.

He’ll be back. He’s a trader now.

 

[Singuy]

Likely he is still being honest. Hence, the stock at 800 was overpriced. Can we all agree he probably has more insight into that than anyone on this board? This includes battery day by the way. He knows what’s coming, likely in three weeks, and there is no way he tweets stock is overpriced not taking whatever announcements coming up very short term into consideration (IMO).

Yet people here blast others for selling. yet all they did was listen to the CEO.

Yeah, that's the problem. If he is road mapping this company to 1 terawatt hrs of production and utilization while releasing robotaxi next year, then we does he mean the stock price is too high? Those type of bullish outlook makes the stock price not high enough. Hundreds of billions of dollars in revenue coming in the next 5 years according to his 40-50% growth rate per year and he's calling the stock high when the market is suppose to be forward looking?

That's why so many people lost confidence. We KNOW he has way more insight than any of us when it comes to valuing his company. And if we were to take what he said today seriously, then that's a big ass problem because then it just means he has been BSing about battery day, robotaxi, and the growth rate. That growth rate is what determines the multiple given to a company. The stock price is no where near 50% growth rate multiple since no one on wallstreet believes him. So the stock price is already "conservative" since no one believes his robotaxi in a year, 50% growth rate, and however many terawatt hrs he wants to produce in a few years.

 

[MC3OZ]

I'm one who said Elon's COVID-19 tweets were Elon being Elon.
I still say selling everything is Elon being Elon.
The same Elon that posted these tweets and Funding Secured 420, is the guy who lands rockets on ships, who will deliver working RoboTaxis and advance sustainable transport and energy 15-20 years.
He was close to off the rails with the freedom tweets, but this is worse, people are reacting mainly because these tweets are just as surprising an unexpected as the 420 tweet. I can't defend these tweets any more than I can defend the 420 tweet.
I'm only smart enough to be a little bit crazy, Elon is very smart and can push the boundaries on crazy.
Can anyone stop Elon tweeting these things? That is a simple question to answer - No

But the more calculating view is "What does it cost Tesla each extra day Fremont is closed,in terms of the Q2 results".
If I had to guess I think maybe $30M-$50M taking an average of $40, 14 days extra shutdown would move Tesla Q2 results by -$560M.
Elon knows something we don't which is how much every extra day closed will really cost.
So stepping back a bit, if shorts pile in now before Battery Day, maybe they will be badly burned by a bounce after Battery Day and be out of powder by the time Q2 results come out.

So I think Elon is going all in trying to get Fremont opened and trying to post reasonable Q2 results,

If Q2 results are badly impacted by Fremont being close we would have got this drop anyway and in the context of Fremont being closed Telsa might be currently over valued for those with a short term time horizon.

We don't know how things would have unfolded if he simply did nothing, this is the ride we are on.

Yes, it might be great if Elon had more discipline and if the roller coaster was a bit more tame, but as I said earlier even when he makes mistakes the end result is sometimes very good.

What we know is having Fremont closed isn't good, Elon tweeting these things isn't good. But maybe he gets Fremont open 7 days earlier, we do know he will keep trying, that is what he does.

 

[Ameliorate]

The first time Elon announced he felt the stock price was too high...I liked it. He was being honest. This led me to invest more.

Likely he is still being honest. Hence, the stock at 800 was overpriced. Can we all agree he probably has more insight into that than anyone on this board? This includes battery day by the way. He knows what’s coming, likely in three weeks, and there is no way he tweets stock is overpriced not taking whatever announcements coming up very short term into consideration (IMO).

Yet people here blast others for selling. yet all they did was listen to the CEO.

Is that not better than taking some random posters “take on the situation” which usually involves how he is actively manipulating the stock with his underlying emotional genius?


As for the other raging debate. It’s easy to say open the economy up while on your couch, reading Twitter all day. To open up the economy, you need well thought out plans with two main foundations to start with. rapid reliable testing, and a team to contact trace positives. You need pillars of workplace plans not only for the space, but labour relations planning including how to manage employee and family illness. You need pillars of healthcare, pillars of PPE availability and on and on.

So far most of the plans I see for reopening things, just address temporal aspects. Kinda, cross your fingers, see how it goes, and if it goes ok, we will again cross our fingers, roll the dice and expand the social circle.

I am not sure people understand fully the PPE shortage still. A few months ago, you would literally throw out your mask, every time you left that patients room. If you went in three times that day, you used three masks.Now you use one per shift, and often have to re use that one. Point being, there is no wiggle room in the system.



I think this is worth a read, wether you agree or not, it shows you what is happening, and just how quick things can get worse.


Running out of Outlets

I don't think anyone, Elon included can decide what the correct price is, everybody has to do that for themselves. Because to me, one share of Tesla is likely worth a completely different amount than it is to the next guy. Nobody forces you to buy at 800, and nobody is forcing you to sell if you think it's worth less. This is why we have a market and it's only worth what people are willing to pay for it. This changes with every ounce of new information that comes out.

No I do not think it was a comment actually on Tesla's valuation but one of "look I don't care if my wealth drops 10%, I care about the people".
If that was the case I'm sure there are many better ways he could have done it but, it's done. Now maybe if we can get a solid restart date for the factory we can carry on with our lives and positive trajectory. maybe.

 

[MC3OZ]

Yeah, that's the problem. If he is road mapping this company to 1 terawatt hrs of production and utilization while releasing robotaxi next year, then we does he mean the stock price is too high? Those type of bullish outlook makes the stock price not high enough. Hundreds of billions of dollars in revenue coming in the next 5 years according to his 40-50% growth rate per year and he's calling the stock high when the market is suppose to be forward looking?

That's why so many people lost confidence. We KNOW he has way more insight than any of us when it comes to valuing his company. And if we were to take what he said today seriously, then that's a big ass problem because then it just means he has been BSing about battery day, robotaxi, and the growth rate. That growth rate is what determines the multiple given to a company. The stock price is no where near 50% growth rate multiple since no one on wallstreet believes him. So the stock price is already "conservative" since no one believes his robotaxi in a year, 50% growth rate, and however many terawatt hrs he wants to produce in a few years.

See my post above, I think he is only talking about Q2 results with Fremont closed.

 

[CaliBear1]

Damn, I take a day off to move and discover over a thousand new posts and the stock has plummeted.

My initial thought was that Elon died of a heart attack or the Fremont factory was flattened by an earthquake or China nationalized G3! Much to my relief, it's just some more Elon being Elon tweets. They're irritating and often baffling, but I do not believe they'll have a long term impact on the company and the stock. I'm just glad I'm a HODLER and not a day or swing trader!

Now back to catching up with this thread from my new pool!

Stay frosty everyone!

 

[Singuy]

See my post below, I think he is only talking about Q2 results with Fremont closed.

That's why he needed plenty of context besides a few line of tweets today. I agree if Fremont is closed then Tesla stock is too high. He needs to be more clear vs just write a thing and leave the rest of the internet to figure it out.