33 years ago, I wore blue and worked on projects denoted by my avatar.
Last edited:
-
Want to remove ads? Register an account and login to see fewer ads, and become a Supporting Member to remove almost all ads.
Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
33 years ago, I wore blue and worked on projects denoted by my avatar.
Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
Since the latest round of Analyst Upgrades for TSLA after the 2020Q1 Earning Letter and Q-10, there's also a revised SP fair value estimate at Wall.st
Valuation
Is Tesla undervalued compared to its fair value and its price relative to the market?
26.8% Undervalued compared to fair value
Share Price vs. Fair Value
Below Fair Value: TSLA ($701.32) is trading below our estimate of fair value ($958.25)
Significantly Below Fair Value: TSLA is trading below fair value by more than 20%.
Valuation
Is Tesla undervalued compared to its fair value and its price relative to the market?
26.8% Undervalued compared to fair value
Share Price vs. Fair Value
Below Fair Value: TSLA ($701.32) is trading below our estimate of fair value ($958.25)
Significantly Below Fair Value: TSLA is trading below fair value by more than 20%.
There is a reply to his tweet by a guy he calls "more authoritative" then himself on the matter:
BillWright on Twitter
BillWright on Twitter
Buckminster
Well-Known Member
This doesn't sound like a good idea. Will be popular but first crash will make very negative headlines:
Elon Musk on Twitter
Pokemon Go whilst driving. You're going to have multiple kids in the back seat demanding their parents drive in different directions - left for Pikachu says the son, right for ice cream says the daughter...
Elon Musk on Twitter
Pokemon Go whilst driving. You're going to have multiple kids in the back seat demanding their parents drive in different directions - left for Pikachu says the son, right for ice cream says the daughter...
RobStark
Well-Known Member
Watts_Up
Well-Known Member
Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
Hello everybody, new here... I am a Tesla fan, Tesla supporter, Tesla enthusiast and Tesla investor here (from Northern Europe, so excuse my non-perfect English...). However, I have a huge problem, and I am a bit desperate and I need suggestions from you all here! I have been investing in Tesla since 3-4 years, and I was very happy with the results of my investment. I have 100% invested in Tesla, because I believe that 10 years from now Tesla will be the leader in all car production worldwide... no doubts about that. The few dinosaur companies left will not be able to compete with the genius of Elon... however, the recent events have put a serious trouble in my offshore brokerage account. After the last ER and CC, I went all-in Tesla, borrowing half way my margin limits, during the surge AH on Wednesday... I thought that - if in the middle of a pandemic - Tesla is the only company that can post a juicy profit, an incredible YoY growth and is light ahead of the competition, the market will reward the share price, right? and in fact I was so happy, 10% up in AH and amazing expectations for the rest of the week... I was intending to hold the shares in margin for 2-3 weeks, and sell them after the run up to 1,000 or so (my personal target was 1,200 a share, following what happened last time Tesla showed amazing profit and margins all over the books...). However, already on Thursday the stock was a bit weak in the afternoon, and I thought it was the shorts and the other haters in Twitter pushing it down, probably helped by some big short like Spiegel and Einhorn... right?... so I doubled down, reaching my absolute top on margin, because I was sure Elon and the longs would surely do something to help the share price that was so high in AH after ER... I also sold some weekly puts at 750 to get some cash right away on the account... then, on Friday morning Elon made that strange tweet, selling everything and going away, and Tesla is too high price... and oh my God my account has completely crashed and my brokerage has issued a huge margin call that I have no idea how to meet... I know Elon surely had his reasons to tweet like he did, we know he is there for us and for the cause, but what the heck why during market hours and why without more precise explanation of his plan? What shall I do now??? I have no idea, I kind of hope it does a huge reversal on Monday, I have 3 days to meet the margin call... shall I hold or give up immediately... I can liquidate other things to cover the call, and open a mortgage on the house...that should be sufficient... the most scary thing of all is that I had no courage to say anything to my wife... she will kill me if she finds out, I promised her so many presents with the results on my investments... any suggestion, idea or forecast what happens on Monday welcome...
Thanks for the reminder, @Krugerrand. This was always my investing philosophy. I don't mind admitting that Musk's tweeting gave me a fright. After a couple of drinks and a bit of time to think and relax, I've decided to hold onto my shares and keep riding this rollercoaster. I'm only 40, have a pretty secure income considering the economic circumstances, and have time to ride this out. TSLA is currently about 30% of my net worth and is far more entertaining to me than my boring index funds. Other people are in different situations, and I don't judge them for selling if that's what they need to do. I have massive respect for people like @CurtRenz and @JPR3 who tell us when they're selling because they've had enough of Musk's antics.
The fact that Musk is nuts isn't new information to me. I think you need to be a bit mad to get to where he has in life. Besides, I'm not sure where else I could invest my money that has the same potential to do as much good for the world (and yes, make me a bit of money) than TSLA. I still think his tweets are a terrible own-goal; I know many here disagree. He may be right about C19, but his phrasing is unnecessarily incendiary. It's not 4D chess, even if something positive happens to emerge from it. But this will blow over and Tesla will continue doing its thing despite his tweets. Trust in management is fundamental to any investment, but Tesla management is not just Musk -- I have been highly impressed by the rest of the senior team. They balance Musk nicely and, working together with him, are creating something truly special. I want to continue to be a very small part of that.
Rock on Elon!
I think Elon was just adding gravitas to his argument. Pretty sure he will throw them a bone like pre order money to make sure they survive a few more weeks/months.
The drop in TESLA SP was also seen in other stocks as well, such as Amazon (-7.6%).
Sorry, my Gort-humor was a little slow last night. Went out to dinner - waiters wore gloves and masks, 25% occupancy and social distancing, martinis went down well.Lol, I meant as lawn furniture dude!
Cheers!
Sounds to me like you've just paid some significant tuition fees. I'm so sorry you're in this position. If anyone knew with certainty what would happen the next trading day, we’d all be extremely rich. I think it’s easier to predict where TSLA will be in 2030 than to predict what will happen next week.
I wouldn’t be surprised if the drop continues on Monday. It might also recover and shoot up again. Maybe it just trades sideways. I don’t think anyone can give any more concrete forecasting than that. It’s why I don’t touch margin or options. I know enough about options for them to terrify me. Other people have great success with options, and I’m genuinely happy for them, but they don’t suit my investment style or personality.
Looks like you’ve learned where your personal level of risk tolerance is. That’s very valuable information.
Dan Detweiler
Active Member
Pretty safe to assume the stock price will probably not significantly rebound immediately, at least until after battery investor day. That's just my opinion so don't make any rash decisions based on just my thoughts.
I sympathize with your predicament but what you describe is exactly why I won't touch the options market. Tesla is, was, and probably always will be highly volatile and I'm just not smart enough to time it.
Dan
That must have been way interesting. About then I was helping land Space Shuttles (from console, not cockpit).
1. If you've been investing in Tesla for even greater than 1 year, then you should have known better then to go heavily on margin at these prices. Less than a year ago Tesla was at a low of $176.99 for no reason. No one knows how low it could go again.
2. Selling puts when you're already overly stretched on the long side was the exact wrong thing to do. You should have sold calls to raise some cash so that worst case your shares get called away at a higher price.
Obviously hindsight is 20/20, but seriously Tesla is so incredibly volatile that going heavily on margin, especially when Tesla is hitting new recent highs, is a recipe for disaster.
All that said, in the long run Tesla will be above $900 again. That could be as soon as next week or it could be 2 years from now, but odds are extremely high we get there again. Only you can evaluate how best to handle this situation. No one knows the future. You just have to look at all your options and what the risks and rewards of each choice might be and make the best choice.
Actually came on here to say that I think for the most part the response on this board to Elon's tweets have been too strong. Not saying I'm glad what he's decided to tweet, but this is Musk we're talking about.
I remember the tweet the pissed me off the most was when he tweeted about "Shortsellers Enrichment Commission" or similar right after they had reached a settlement. I was like "SERIOUSLY!!" But even then it turned out to not be that big of a deal.
This will be the same. It will blow over and not be a big deal. That said, we may experience some pain in the stock price in the short run. Which might have been coming anyway since all 3 North American factories have been shut down for a month and their re-opening is yet unknown.
In the long run, all will be fine...
I remember the tweet the pissed me off the most was when he tweeted about "Shortsellers Enrichment Commission" or similar right after they had reached a settlement. I was like "SERIOUSLY!!" But even then it turned out to not be that big of a deal.
This will be the same. It will blow over and not be a big deal. That said, we may experience some pain in the stock price in the short run. Which might have been coming anyway since all 3 North American factories have been shut down for a month and their re-opening is yet unknown.
In the long run, all will be fine...
Wow, that whole segment was a pure advert for Tesla - how much would that have cost to air if it was a paid ad??
Last edited:
Thanks everybody for the comments here. I appreciate. Yes, I got too overly confident and I have learned my lesson. I think I will wait Monday and see how the stock moves, and decide what to do before the end of the trading day. If it falls further, I sell half so I am no longer in margin..... I will cover the margin call mostly with the house mortgage, and I will pay that back in full when Tesla goes over 1,500 a share, likely by September or October. I have no doubts this is just a bump in the road, and the future is bright. Thinking more rationally, now, I also can see the enormous amount of stress Elon must be going through... the baby, the shelter in place that limits his freedom, the continuous attack on him by haters when he only wants the good for humanity (he was the only one helping hospitals in New York - but he did not receive enough plause for that) so I understand his tweet. It probably costed him much more than it costed me! Elon, I will be on your side, always... on another note, I had spoken with my wife and she was enraged, but not too much. I have ensured her that by end of summer the investment in Tesla will allow me to pay back the mortgage and I will buy her the new car I promised. She loves me, and she told me that shouting "if you lose the house, I am going to leave you" was just an over-reaction. Thanks everybody, stay strong & long, and everything will be fine!
Similar threads
- Locked
- Locked
