Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[TheTalkingMule]

+6% on a low volume day. Really stark illustration of the short's power to affect pricing.

 

[Tim S]

Tesla strikes battery deal with South Korean giant Hanwha Corporation

Tesla made a deal with a Korean battery manufacturing supplier, which probably will allow them better control over their production of batteries in GF Shanghai, and GF Berlin, if not GF Nevada (though that one may be contractual exclusive with Panasonic).

Clarification: Tesla will be buying "battery formation equipment" from Hanwha, not batteries...

The battery formation equipment that Hanwha will supply to Tesla ensures the initial charge and discharge of battery cells. The equipment confirms the health of the batteries by clarifying that they are fully functional and operational before they are installed into a product.

 

[ColonelRHS]

I always thought Musk was on OUR side. He may be a genius and captain of industry, but he doesn't know when to keep his mouth shut.

 

[Krugerrand]

Q1 earnings report was outstanding. Tesla are the only profitable car company in the world right now, and that was with the last 2 weeks production not being delivered!

Fundamentals matter.

Investors were spooked by Elon's comment on Friday, but we have to realize that when Elon says things like that, it is for a political reason. He usually says the stock price is too high when trying to convince people that Tesla has not made it yet, is still not mature and will be hurt by lockdowns/regulations etc.

If we get an announcement that Freemont will be opening in the next 2 weeks then stock price could break $1,000, if nothing after 2 weeks, then it could go the other way....

You’ve mischaracterized what happened Friday. A portion of Friday’s downward movement was his Tweet, but the SP was already moving in the down direction at the time. The other portion, what started it and what finished it, was macros on more willy swinging at China.

There were multiple SP UPGRADES to TSLA on Thursday. We’ve got 3? SP targets over $1000, one just below in the 9’s one in the 8’s, couple in the 7’s....

We were 20% BELOW fair market value on Friday. That info posted in this thread. Tesla just killed Q1, and we’ve got people who are ‘surprised’ to see the SP up today?!

I’m going to make a list; if you’re name appears on it you have no business trading, holding or otherwise TSLA.

 

[Artful Dodger]

View attachment 538508

7:00 am 'Walk-Down': $20 in 20 min... but there's no manipulation fo TSLA, right?

Cheers!

Funny, less than 5 hrs ago da Shortzes were offering TSLA for $682 a share. That's +$60, or about +$12 an hr...

Don't they know that minimum wage has GONE UP?!

CH33RS!

 

[dc_h]

Where is he moving?

Plant floor in Boca Chica? He can probably save 10's of millions in taxes living in Texas or Florida if he wants to start cashing any options or taking a salary. A house in Austin would also be more central to split time between SpaceX & Tesla. Tesla also seems to be moving more R&D to Austin for batteries and AI. Austin isn't cheap, but relative to Palo Alto, it's a bargain and more room to expand. They could probably expand staff by 50% for little to no additional cost in Austin.

 

[Krugerrand]

I agree with the earnings being excellent where it wasn't crapped on. But what makes me not hold onto TSLA for the time being is that they're being crippled by stay at home orders until the end of May. If Tesla were to be allowed open sooner, I'd jump back in.

You should stop talking to yourself. You can’t be trusted otherwise you’d still be holding.

Mark my words, Tesla will be open sooner than the first of June. The revolution already started in California this morning and in other states. Whether you support it or not, the country is reopening.

 

[Brianroneill]

Many thanks Papafox for your excellent and deep analysis. I bought some shares at the same time as my Model 3P last September. Had I invested all the funds just in shares at that time I could have bought 4 Model 3s in January! Still I’ve really enjoyed the car and am staying long on the shares so the finances will catch up. Have to say that I am actually happy with the price going southwards at the moment as it means that I can buy more shares.

 

[FreeIon]

This is like his 6th kid. May the 4th be with him.

By my calculations, at this rate Elon will have 21 children when he's 88.

Which one is going to run the company?

 

[jbcarioca]

California claims you as a resident for tax purposes for 18 months after you leave

True, but that can be disputed successfully. I did it when I left CA. FWIW, just selling his house will not even come close for Elon, when he is a corporate officer of several companies based in and conducting major business in California. When SpaceX and Tesla both have the majority of their corporate-level activities in California I'd give him effectively zero chance of expatriating himself.

 

[LN1_Casey]

By my calculations, at this rate Elon will have 21 children when he's 88.

Which one is going to run the company?

By then he'll have enough of them to give each of them one.

 

[feigen66]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2020/05/04/mental-health-coronavirus/

https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2020/05/04/financial-distress-among-doctors-hospitals-despite-covid-19-weighs-heavily-economy/

'It would be better to die': Italy's lockdown cost

As predicted, MSM began to focus on the cost of lockdown. Let's see how it plays out Fremont opening timeline.

 

[LN1_Casey]

True, but that can be disputed successfully. I did it when I left CA. FWIW, just selling his house will not even come close for Elon, when he is a corporate officer of several companies based in and conducting major business in California. When SpaceX and Tesla both have the majority of their corporate-level activities in California I'd give him effectively zero chance of expatriating himself.

Hm, I think Overlord Musk is hard headed enough to uproot everything he has and move it to somewhere more favorable. Now, I'd say he'd not do it immediately, but if California burns the bridge enough with not allowing Fremont to open, I can see him pushing to close *the deal on the next GF location and moving the main enterprise there when it opens.

*edited for clarity.

 

[JRP3]

This is about CLIMATE CHANGE, and whether we can change our mine'n'burn economy. The only thing at stake is humanity's future.

The shutdown has done more to reduce emissions than anything. You'd think Elon would be all onboard.

 

[Drax7]

Here's the listings on zillow:

10930 Chalon Rd, Los Angeles, CA 90077 | Zillow
10911 Chalon Rd, Los Angeles, CA 90077 | Zillow

$9.5 mil for the Gene Wilder house.
$30 mil for the mansion.

“ if the rich are unhappy, it’s their own fault” Vlad Lenin.

 

[madodel]

I always thought Musk was on OUR side. He may be a genius and captain of industry, but he doesn't know when to keep his mouth shut.

You're just picking up on this? He just has no filter. Invest in the company and the mission not the statements of the owner. That is very tough for me at the moment but I'm trying to hang in and keep trying to think how much I believe in the ultimate goal. We may survive COVID-19 and then get hit with another plague or second wave that we can't handle, both thanks to the warming of the climate. In the meantime this is the daily trading charts thread. Will be interesting to see Pappafox's take on today's SP. Steady at up 5%. Uptick rule in effect so shorts are hamstrung in manipulating, but still surprising people aren't fleeing after the tweets of last Friday. I wish I were as optimistic about the COVID-19 situation but then I live 70 miles from NYC.

 

[oldTAVguy]

True, but that can be disputed successfully. I did it when I left CA. FWIW, just selling his house will not even come close for Elon, when he is a corporate officer of several companies based in and conducting major business in California. When SpaceX and Tesla both have the majority of their corporate-level activities in California I'd give him effectively zero chance of expatriating himself.

Move Corp HQ to Texas.

 

[Tslynk67]

Maybe no "shorting" allowed today, but this sure looks like capping to me...

 

[SpeedGoat]

Based on today's SP, it seems all is forgiven. I believe we are close to the SP we were before the tweets, "We too high".

And in my unbridled optimism, I'm feeling a vibe that last weeks twitter uproar could be a catalyst the center and left needed to speak up in favor of loosening the WFH quarantines without looking like protester sympathizers. I'm not implying that Elon's reputation is regarded as a voice of reason to those outside of our world but his credibility supported by his string of accomplishments has to carry some weight.

Spoiler: OT Reasonings

In trying to minimize OT opinions concerning Covid, it just seems to me that the initial fear and concerns were not to eradicate the virus but to avoid overtaxing our health care system. Outside of some pockets in NYC and NJ, from what I've read, mission accomplished. Seems logical that if we slowing begin a rollback of restrictions, we can begin the healing process and still keep from having health care professional make a "Sophies Choice". The numbers will go up, no doubt but we have a "perfection is the enemy of good" scenario unfolding if now the goal is to maintain a lockdown until the new cases is at 0.

A few here have mentioned getting a thumbs up from unexpected fellow drivers that some feel is in support of Elon's taking a stand against an overly oppressive government that could be interpreted as ultra conservative cause it's the easy way out. We can see evidence of that with the backlash against Elon initially, not just from a public voicing Musk's greedy agenda but even here we have members that find his position inexcusable.
I'm not trying to pass judgement on whichever camp you set up your tent, only that by Musk going public with his viewpoint, opens the door to others that may have also felt like, "okay, things in my neck of the woods aren't nearly as bad as we expected, let's loosen our grip a little and try to bring back normalcy.

The end result I see is Musk's pushing back has a silent majority of support that may no longer be silent. My gut feeling is this will give Tesla a net positive when the dust settles. I admire Musk's ability to fearlessly express his opinion on things he believes are right. There will be missteps along the way and his stumbling on some of his Covid positions are the collateral damage of his personality. But overall, his hits far outweigh his misses.

I think we can agree that the initial response to Elon's COVID tweets was overwhelmingly political. In the US the push to start rolling back restrictions is associated with the political right, and that drives a certain segment of the left into a reactionary frenzy.

Elon will ultimately prove to be on the right side of the public debate however because we are clearly moving towards opening up again. He got there a little bit early but that is all. He has also hopefully pushed some to reconsider their knee jerk reactions.

 

[jbcarioca]

Tesla strikes battery deal with South Korean giant Hanwha Corporation

Tesla made a deal with a Korean battery manufacturing supplier, which probably will allow them better control over their production of batteries in GF Shanghai, and GF Berlin, if not GF Nevada (though that one may be contractual exclusive with Panasonic).

It is logical to assume that Joey Klender might not have done deep due diligence on his post. Hanwha is one of the major solar cell producers in the world:
Hanwha Q CELLS
Through Hanwha Machinery they are highly capable industrial process suppliers and processors. So, a deal to supply QC on final cell production is entirely logical, but the deal is quite likely to be only the first public indication of much more extensive future plans. They are, for instance, among the world's leading heat treatment specialists, whcih can come in handy when dealing with, say, giant sized aluminum castings.

I will wager there is a far broader relationship under way.