Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[willow_hiller]

Irrational low information cheer leading is no better than irrational low information doomsayers.

I'm not advocating for cheer-leading. I'm advocating for people to keep the discussion personable so we don't alienate the people who make the high-information posts.

 

[wipster]

That's a common misconception about buying and holding. That it's boring and you don't have to do anything. It's critical that a buy and hold investor keep their eyes on the ball (the company, not so much the share price, especially not hour by hour). It's important to stay abreast of real developments within the company and the competition because you don't want to be invested in something that's going to be flat to down for three or four years (or even longer). As investors in Tesla, we are kind of in a golden period with no near-term risk of competition which means there's one less thing to focus on. It's also important to know the difference between a small earnings miss that will correct itself the following quarter or two and a larger, more systemic problem with the business, products, management effectiveness or changes in market preferences or the competition that risks never correcting itself.

For example, if the CEO tweets his opinion that the share price might have gotten ahead of itself, but you see no problem looking out a couple of quarters, you don't panic. Or if some bad news comes out and the price drops 30% overnight, it's important to not panic because the bad news might already be fully priced in (or maybe you suspect the problem identified is only the tip of the iceberg and you decide to sell). Or there may be an expensive problem with every car the company built in the last year or two and you have a heads up before the market realizes just how prevalent and expensive the fix is, you might want to bail if you can before the market understands the problem. But it's necessary to weigh the negatives with the positives with an eye down the road.

Personally, I find the incessant worrying and preoccupation with every little 10% move up or down, on nothing really fundamental to the company's longer-term prospects, to be rather tiresome but I put up with it and read past much of it because I realize different investors have different styles. That doesn't mean I find it interesting, just that I accept some people can't help but focus on the share price at any given moment. It's built into the way their brain works or the way they view money and assets.

I really dislike when people take a single sentence out of context and then reply only to that sentence... and take almost 400 words to do it.

 

[HG Wells]

Irrational low information cheer leading is no better than irrational low information doomsayers.

But, irrational low information doomsayers get more clicks.

 

[Krugerrand]

 

[MC3OZ]

California Coronavirus: 58,619 Cases and 2,375 Deaths - Worldometer

4th May - California - 1,320 new cases Alameda 27 new cases
5th May - California - 2,530 new cases Alameda 33 new cases

This is just 2 days worth of data but new cases are not trending down as I hoped.

That could simply be improved testing and tracking.

Most of the increase in new cases for 5th May is in Los Angeles.

I'll keep tracking the trend, a sustained drop in new case numbers will help the case for opening Fremont.,

 

[copyhacker]

I'm willing to put my money where my mouth is. I'll bet you one reddit karma point it's not him.

I don’t know how we would settle it since FC has consistently ignored any inquiries into his/her identity. Unless you are u/__TSLA__ (or know them personally) and can prove it.

 

[printf42]

What makes you assume that from his tweet? He didn't validate anything Gali was speculating about, just gave a vague general statement.

Just a feeling.

If it’s less than Gali’s predictions, he won’t reply.

If if exactly as Gali said, he often just tweet “exactly” in those cases.

That would leave the case of there is more than what’s mentioned in the tweet. Could be mining or other things we know of already, or something we don’t know yet, I would incline to later.

 

[AlMc]

reversing my stance on $tsla - clearly the downside expectation did not play out as expected
and sp shows strong upside action
time to go superlong again
never fight the trend
opinions are worthless-only market action is the truth
the only reason i have made the kind of money in stocks is because i change my opinion very fast based on market action and act immediately with zero regard to my prior expectations
opinions are totally worthless
i love to be wrong and make tons of money
superlong $tsla
even though i am superlong $tsla again, this time i am 100% common stock with some margin instead of calls
i am nervous about calls but find common much more comforting
in case i get whipsawed and lose big money
call premiums are too rich
common is the safest bett
now that downside scenario is pretty much decimated-what is the upside likely $1400 to $1600 over next several weeks to months
if it happens faster then i will take my money and run

Huh. Imagine that. Didn’t even make it two trading days of your several weeks time frame and you’ve done a full reversal.

You didn’t answer my time frame questions last time, but maybe this time?

Define super long? To me that’s like a decade, but to you I suspect that’s maybe 7? days?

No reason to define several weeks or months. I got that. It’s equal to 1-4 trading days.

No apologies are needed for anyone making money on TSLA. I want, and try, to do it myself. But TT you are a trader, not really a long investor in TSLA. I have NO problem with that. My only issue is going 'super long' in your statement as if whatever charts, TA, 'gut' you use to move from buying to selling TSLA that you use that works for you (all the power to you for making $) I would not consider you a 'super long' TSLA investor.

Now, we may have a different definition of super long. To me (and you can disagree), the definition of a 'minimum' long is when you sell a stock or option position you are paying Cap gains (holding at least one year) and not 'regular' income tax rates.

IMO, you strategy is 'super aggressive' as you change your strategy very quickly about buying or selling TSLA and to the extent that you use leverage.

 

[JRP3]

I'm not advocating for cheer-leading. I'm advocating for people to keep the discussion personable so we don't alienate the people who make the high-information posts.

I'm trying to expose and reduce the low-information posters. Not easy to be personable when doing so.

 

[StealthP3D]

No apologies are needed for anyone making money on TSLA.

Does the same apply to those who lose money trading TSLA?

 

[StealthP3D]

I really dislike when people take a single sentence out of context and then reply only to that sentence... and take almost 400 words to do it.

I didn't mean to mislead. It's just that I didn't think the rest of the post added any context to the part I elaborated on. Here's your entire post, not sure how this changes anything:

That being said, it would be an awfully boring forum if every member just bought and held. It is an investor's roundtable and I for one like to hear from both traders and longs. What I don't like are insults directed to posters for perhaps an uninformed post. We all have something to learn and corrections and/or explanations can be made without calling each other names.

Now you have me wondering how you knew it was "almost 400 words"?

Did you count them?

 

[UCF3]

XÆA-12 = XAEAC (12 is hexadecimal 'C')
XAEAC looks/sounds a lot like "Zach" or "Zack"

Twitter
Grimes explains the meaning

 

[Dan Detweiler]

Yea sure, it is that simple. Ignore the nuance at your own peril bud.

As soon as you start rounding up all the posts that bash Trump then you can talk. Until then just stamp a big H on your forehead.

Wow dude, take a pill, have a drink, smoke a J. Do something to help you relax a little. You're going to give yourself a coronary.

Dan

 

[MC3OZ]

Just a feeling.

If it’s less than Gali’s predictions, he won’t reply.

If if exactly as Gali said, he often just tweet “exactly” in those cases.

That would leave the case of there is more than what’s mentioned in the tweet. Could be mining or other things we know of already, or something we don’t know yet, I would incline to later.

Battery Day is going to be great.

But Elon doesn't want to give too much away (officially) beforehand, I read the tweet as not confirming or denying anything.

 

[ruralectric]

As a teacher in government biased in favor of liberal democracies, of course I cannot argue against your wish to influence government by participating in politics. A great deal of Trump's political brilliance is in understanding and taking advantage of our generally apathetic population which may change because of Trump's lack of leadership skills, or not. Equally I am indifferent to the price of TSLA at these levels since I have been investing since 2010, and last at $760 or so, yet our price average per share is $77.

I'm reluctantly coming to the realization, which I do not like, that politicians have a different reality where countervailing pressures must be measured for decision. At some point the great ones have a reputation for fairness and speaking the truth about unpleasant decisions and preparing us to receive them. Gavin Newsom is doing a great job, Cuomo less so with a tougher problem with subways, yada, yada.

I recently touched base with my 85 year old economist buddy and his retired wife who was a very high level staffer in the California Legislative Analyst's Office. The LAO has the highest rep. nationally except perhaps for Congress which normally can tap all government's experts but is currently kneecapped by the ignoramus in chief. (For decades she was the top analyst for the transportation budget, for example.) Both give Newsom highest praise. We didn't talk about Alameda County. I didn't ask, but they are probably incompetent in that area and I certainly am.

Good to know about Newsom. I don't envy anyone in elected office right now. Tough decisions, going to be unhappy people no matter how you slice it, and certainly a very unexpected set of circumstances. Overall I think Inslee has done a really great job in WA. He's made some very unpopular moves, but like Newsom, was out in front early on the stay-at-home orders. And has moderated his position in response to public opinion where possible, and as WA seems to be on the backside of our curve.

I too am not worried about Tesla long term. But I am bummed that Elon, with his vast number of twitter followers and fan base, chose a rather cryptic style of communication that expressed his displeasure with the shutdown (that's my guess anyway; Dave T actuall devoted an entire episode of his vlog trying to decipher some of his tweets). I totally agree with @Paracelsus, that the notion of "critical infrastructure" should have encompassed the climate threat. And I think Elon and Tesla could have mounted a much more effective communication effort toward getting public opinion moving in that direction. Instead, there were people here calling Elon a radical extremist, people selling their stock, and a lot of head scratching. Would it have worked? Maybe, maybe not. But it's hard to argue that what we got was anything resembling a well thought out campaign aimed at doing anything much other than a couple of days of crappy PR.

But, as we all know, Elon is not perfect, and Tesla will survive. But this extended shutdown will certainly be a setback towards implementation of the secret master plan.

Thanks for the reply, Professor.

 

[wipster]

I didn't mean to mislead. It's just that I didn't think the rest of the post added any context to the part I elaborated on. Here's your entire post, not sure how this changes anything:



Now you have me wondering how you knew it was "almost 400 words"?

Did you count them?

I copied your text into Docs and used word count... 392 to be precise ;-)

Look, no worries alright? I watch this forum for news and opinions by investors and traders as I'm pretty sure you do as well, so all is well as we're waiting for battery day... let's just hope Elon can get some sleep in the interim and not be the designated diaper changer.

 

[Intl Professor]

View attachment 539081

I'm surprised by your modesty—only one dollar bills.

 

[JRP3]

Wow dude, take a pill, have a drink, smoke a J. Do something to help you relax a little. You're going to give yourself a coronary.

Dan

He's had similar rants in various threads. Sleeper troll activated?

 

[RandomJohnny]

He's had similar rants in various threads. Sleeper troll activated?

18,000 posts and now you think you are the CIA. Maybe a low information social life?

 

[Intl Professor]

Good to know about Newsom. I don't envy anyone in elected office right now. Tough decisions, going to be unhappy people no matter how you slice it, and certainly a very unexpected set of circumstances. Overall I think Inslee has done a really great job in WA. He's made some very unpopular moves, but like Newsom, was out in front early on the stay-at-home orders. And has moderated his position in response to public opinion where possible, and as WA seems to be on the backside of our curve.

I too am not worried about Tesla long term. But I am bummed that Elon, with his vast number of twitter followers and fan base, chose a rather cryptic style of communication that expressed his displeasure with the shutdown (that's my guess anyway; Dave T actuall devoted an entire episode of his vlog trying to decipher some of his tweets). I totally agree with @Paracelsus, that the notion of "critical infrastructure" should have encompassed the climate threat. And I think Elon and Tesla could have mounted a much more effective communication effort toward getting public opinion moving in that direction. Instead, there were people here calling Elon a radical extremist, people selling their stock, and a lot of head scratching. Would it have worked? Maybe, maybe not. But it's hard to argue that what we got was anything resembling a well thought out campaign aimed at doing anything much other than a couple of days of crappy PR.

But, as we all know, Elon is not perfect, and Tesla will survive. But this extended shutdown will certainly be a setback towards implementation of the secret master plan.

Thanks for the reply, Professor.

Aside from my immediate preferences for Warren and Bernie, I was a fan of Inslee and early on floated his candidacy only to get some flack from Washington residents, but if I recall, mostly for other candidates. If I recall, he is a rather large man but fit. I wanted to see Trump out staged in debate as he tried to do by hounding Hillary with his girth.