Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[jhm]

Model Y will take sales from Model 3. But that's not to say Model 3 sales can't continue to grow even as Model Y steals some of the would-be Model 3 buyers.

The best situation for profits would be if a lot more people wanted the more expensive Model Y instead of the Model 3 because Tesla would convert Model 3 production lines to produce more Model Y's. The higher mix of Model Y's would result in higher profits. And this is the likely outcome since CUV's are so popular. I doubt if Tesla would wait for another factory to be built in North America to increase Model Y production when they could recognize the additional profits simply by converting production lines to make more Model Y's (until another factory is completed).

Go full cannibal or go home.

 

[Krugerrand]

others give power to those with laser pointers

And still others give power to those with moving vehicles.

Who can say which is dumber? Statistically the odds of survival seem to favor one more than the other, would you not agree?

Don’t answer. It’s off topic and then the wisdom of these posts will be lost to all.

On the TSLA front. The ever so accurate ‘Tesla of China’ headline popped up on my feed this morning. Something about demand issues for them. Perhaps we see some algo selling? Perhaps not. Who’s to say? A lot of unknowns continue to exist in the world. One not unknown; we all gonna be filthy rich.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Tesla Stock Has a Date With $1,000 | InvestorPlace

Here's a bull call spread with a potential 150% return
By Tyler Craig, Tales of a Technician
May 28, 2020, 9:08 am EDT

"Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) downed an Ambien last month and has been sleeping ever since. It’s a rare spell of slumber for a stock known for its fireworks. Momentum lovers used to the raucous volatility have had to adjust to a new, duller regime of TSLA stock.

"If you’re one of them, take heart. I think the sluggish movement is temporary. Like a coiled spring, TSLA stock is squeezing tighter and tighter in preparation for what could be a fantastic breakout.

"Today, I’m going to show you how to profit from it."​

For your pre-market Opening reading list. ;^)

Cheers!

 

[jerry33]

I have been wondering how with imminent battery day and presumption of big leap forward in battery tech which could mean longer range, extended battery life, etc. how would Tesla handle it with existing cars. Could the price cuts simply be to soften the blow for new purchasers. I mean after all they can now release versions of 3, S, and X with new batteries at higher prices. This way people who just ordered with older tech dont feel cheated. You also have the issue of people waiting for new tech if they dont release immediately. So have the older tech available and new tech comes out later at higher prices.

Not always, but often enough when Tesla announces something they also announce that it is in all the cars manufactured after a certain date, and that date is a few days in the past.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Pathetic 750K shares traded in the 1st 15 min of the session, (avg 50k/min). Shaping up to be a slow day...

Cheers!

 

[StealthP3D]

I used to hate the word "cannibalize." It is often carries a negative connotation, as if a company does well to avoid it. But fear of cannibalization is the curse of a company that cannot innovate to save itself. Tesla is just the opposite. As Musk says, "In the long run only the pace of innovation matters."

If you are not cannibalizing your existing product line, you are not innovating fast enough. The rest of the auto industry will lose massive market share because they are too timid to cannibalize their their product line. They will lose market share to relentless innovators who wrecklessly make everything obsolete.

Elon is a prince among cannibals. May it be that the pace of innovation at Tesla is full cannibal.

I love it! Cannibalization is the "eating" of your own. But that's just another form of hunting. Tesla doesn't discriminate between their own and others, they are simply wickedly ruthless hunters, all are fair game.

If it moves, Tesla will hunt it down and take it out! Tesla will not make a big commotion about it, they will just quietly do it with ruthless precision. It might be more appropriate to call it assassination than cannibalization!

 

[skybluecgreen]

And still others give power to those with moving vehicles.

Who can say which is dumber? Statistically the odds of survival seem to favor one more than the other, would you not agree?

Don’t answer. It’s off topic and then the wisdom of these posts will be lost to all.

On the TSLA front. The ever so accurate ‘Tesla of China’ headline popped up on my feed this morning. Something about demand issues for them. Perhaps we see some algo selling? Perhaps not. Who’s to say? A lot of unknowns continue to exist in the world. One not unknown; we all gonna be filthy rich.

Can you buy another share on demand issues with 'Tesla of China'?

 

[Artful Dodger]

Not always, but often enough when Tesla announces something they also announce that it is in all the cars manufactured after a certain date, and that date is a few days in the past.

There are certain advanced bty features that are relatively easy to incorporate on existing production lines (Panasonic in GF1+Japan, possibly LG Chem in S.Korea/China) such as cathode materials and electrolyte additives. These are the low hanging fruit of Jeff Dahn's research, and may indeed be incorporated relatively quickly to provide a 'million mile' battery to existing products like Model 3/Y. These recipes are mostly public domain already through a series of academic papers and Tesla bty patents (thoroughly discussed on 'The Limiting Factor' Youtube channel), now just waiting to go into production.

However, the more fundamental architecture changes required to allow faster charging plus cooler hi-pwr discharge (tabless cells), and also the large gains in energy density (Maxwell DBE) while also decreasing pack cost (cell-to-pack layout) will not be a simple 'drop-in' for existing bty lines.

These will require new manufacturing tech, and facilities. The tech is being developed now at Fremont with the 'Pilot Line' for batteries, likely enough to support Plaid S/X.

But mass manufacturing of this new tech (when its ready) will not arrive until the new Tesla 'terafactory' is built, so likely ~18 mths before we see the first product (likely Cybertruck and Semi).

The wildcard in this is CATL in Shanghai, who have been working with Tesla on developing new batteries since at least Fall 2019. There may be some new tech rolled out there, although I sincerely doubt Tesla reveals their full bty tech 'wish-list' in this 1st product with a Chinese partner.

I suspect Cybertruck will be literally alien technology, as in, it'll be designed to work on Mars and the Moon.

Cheers!

 

[Unpilot]

the good thing is Cybertruck is very different and is mostly competing in a different market segment...

What is that segment though? I mean I need one like I need another island to occupy...and I ordered the tri motor version.
I think the truck will sell well to soccer mom's,Merica dudes,real estate agent's...even cat's will buy one.

 

[elasalle]

Added Jun 22, 900 earlier today. Wish the idea for the funds came to me yesterday

 

[theschnell]

Anyone want to sell me a June 17 2022 $210 put for $2k? I currently set the bid price.

Upside: You make an easy $2k
Downside: You lock up $21,000 for 2 years if held until expiry, unless you sell on margin (not recommended in my opinion).

Buying because I sold for $2.7k and looking to lock in profit.

 

[jeewee3000]

Added Jun 22, 900 earlier today. Wish the idea for the funds came to me yesterday

Any specific reasoning behind this trade besides general feeling that the stock is poised to breakout soon (Battery day for example)?

 

[elasalle]

Any specific reasoning behind this trade besides general feeling that the stock is poised to breakout soon (Battery day for example)?

.reasons.
low IV, options are cheaper
need to front run some of my Jan 21 Covered Calls (don't want to lose my core shares). (this is main reason).
I actually also ended up selling another Aug 20 1200+ CC against it
Delta for 900's is like 0.6 for slightly OTM Call in this case.

Funds used are actually from other CC's i sold in past when IV was high. cheers!!

I could have done this yesterday, but did not get the idea for the funds till today

+ thinking in line that Price Drop is just natural and nothing to worry about regarding demand.

 

[pyromatter]

 

[kengchang]

I have been wondering how with imminent battery day and presumption of big leap forward in battery tech which could mean longer range, extended battery life, etc. how would Tesla handle it with existing cars. Could the price cuts simply be to soften the blow for new purchasers. I mean after all they can now release versions of 3, S, and X with new batteries at higher prices. This way people who just ordered with older tech dont feel cheated. You also have the issue of people waiting for new tech if they dont release immediately. So have the older tech available and new tech comes out later at higher prices.

There's no way Tesla can just ramp up the production on the Tesla cell to the amount of replacing output from Panasonic. The easiest and painless way is to create higher tier of product, S/X Plaid and 3/Y Long Range Plus and limit the demand by $$$$$. Everyone stays happy that way and less bickering/moaning.

 

[GOVA]

Dark City called, they wanna their clothes back.

 

[Todd Burch]

Here's a play-by-play for the rest of the day.

GREEN! RED! GREEN! RED! GREEN! RED! GREEN! RED! GREEN!

There. Very Christmas-like.

Now you all can go outside and play in the fresh air, and maybe burn off a little Coronavirus.

 

[Tim S]

Anyone want to sell me a June 17 2022 $210 put for $2k? I currently set the bid price.

Upside: You make an easy $2k
Downside: You lock up $21,000 for 2 years if held until expiry, unless you sell on margin (not recommended in my opinion).

Buying because I sold for $2.7k and looking to lock in profit.

The bid on the Jun 2022 $200 put is $2100, so you'll have to go higher than that.

 

[Krugerrand]

Can you buy another share on demand issues with 'Tesla of China'?

Why the heck not? I made the rules, I can certainly interpret them anyway I want. 26

 

[willow_hiller]

Here's a play-by-play for the rest of the day.

GREEN! RED! GREEN! RED! GREEN! RED! GREEN! RED! GREEN!

There. Very Christmas-like.

Now you all can go outside and play in the fresh air, and maybe burn off a little Coronavirus.

Are we absolutely sure that the market is open this week?