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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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I stop listening when the guy doesn't understand what a charge cycle is. It's in the name, cycle. You can't plug in your car everyday and call that a cycle if you only drove 50 miles.
That's called a shallow cycle. Similar to a deep cycle, but still a cycle. Ni-Cad btys were particularly vulnerable to capacity loss due to shallow cycling. It sounds like this guy is WAY out of date on bty tech.

Cheers!
 
Model Y estimated delivery now 4-8 weeks (for US market at least.)

I was in the Tesla store at Palo Alto Stanford Mall today to make an appointment for a Model Y test drive (they have one, first opening on Sunday). The lady in the store said if ordering today, September delivery. So, the website likely incorrect? Who would you believe?
 
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Agree that Tesla is the best positioned OEM no question.

Would caution though not to count out the ongoing global economic impact of CoronaVirus and its near term impact on sales. Despite being offline for US production for a big portion of the quarter, Tesla still had enough excess production for the quarter that they dropped prices on S/3/X. I know some here will disagree and argue that the price drops were planned and nothing to do with lower sales volumes, but I don’t think that is plausible when the factory was offline for so long and yet one can still order today and receive a car before quarter end. I don’t know why some here (not directed at you personally Krugerrand) take so much offence to the thought that model S/3/X demand might be temporarily softer in the middle of the worst economic shock in modern history. It isn’t a criticism against Tesla or it’s future fortunes, it’s purely due to a massive macro shock outside Tesla’s control. If Tesla was able to ship & deliver more units to Europe before quarter end the pricing situation would highly likely be different, but that simply isn’t possible.

I expect sales to pick up substantially in Q3 & Q4 once the majority of potential Tesla buyers are feeling more secure about there employment. New economic data released today showed record high level of US household income in the month of April (juiced by stimulus checks and doubling of unemployment benefits), but a record decrease in consumer spending - meaning everyone was in cash HODL mode and building their savings.

Personal Income and Outlays: April 2020 | U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA)

Simply - no.

What are any of us to do about this next little bit while we wait and see how extensive the recession is or is not? Whether there’s a second outbreak bigger and badder than the first?

I should do what exactly with my shares of TSLA? Sell? Why? So I can never again own as many as I do now because if TSLA SP ever gets that low again a) we’re all doomed and b) money isn’t going to be of any use to any of us.

So I need to be cautious for what reason exactly? At this point either Tesla knows what it’s doing or it doesn’t. If it doesn’t see a) and b).

I have heard about being cautious before concerning demand issues. Many times actually. The outcome has always been the same; a mountain made of a mole hill with Tesla continuing to sell more and more cars and the SP eventually reflecting that.

Soon I’m going to have heard just as many cautions concerning one model cannibalizing another model. Might have to start adding cannibal shares too.

Caution is for the short term gamblers so they can protect against being less lucky. I don’t care what happens to them and I just finished being a short term ROKU gambler recently. My gamble worked out, but if it hadn’t I’d have said, ‘Self, you got no one to blame but yourself.’

So no. I’m not entertaining any cautious thoughts or feelings concerning TSLA or Tesla because of current world events or current vehicle pricing or near term future events. I’ll buy my demand shares when it’s played out, yet again, and I have a final tally. I have no idea what the SP will be then and honestly I don’t care, they’ll be cheap regardless.
 
Good point, but even then, I'm not sure the UK is the best choice (Although obviously I'd be in favour). Everywhere in europe means sending stuff through the channel tunnel, or by ship, which is a bottleneck nobody needs. Plus wage costs in the UK are not exactly super cheap, and our planning system is pretty dreadful for building new factories. Plus solar wise.... there are better places for creating solar products...
BUT
We have a huge amunt of wind energy, and are building tons more, so its arguable the case we are a very good place for selling/testing energy storage. But then the ingredients (lithium etc) are not exactly local to us.
Also brexit puts a big phat 'who knows what will happen' question mark over our economy. I can imagine a second GF in Germany before there is one here. I CAN imagine a design/research facility in the UK. We are the home of deep mind, and have some pretty geeky univerities etc...
Agree with your comments that a factory could be suitable for the UK - particularly if production was weighted more towards batteries. The UK is one of the best places for battery storage - as you say there's large amount of intermittent wind energy. There's also a surprising amount of solar given the weather and latitude. Grid scale battery storage could do very well here.

The energy market is also quite sophisticated with many frequency control and other energy stability markets which can be locked in in advance (which makes financing easier) along with floating spot rate energy where Autobidder could run wild extracting profits. Scaling battery storage will provide even more flexibility for Atobidder to trade.

In addition to many of the great universities and relevant companies you mentioned, pretty much the entire Formula1 engineering industry is headquartered in the UK - In my opinion many of these great engineers will be looking for a new home over the next 5 years as legacy OEMs limit their investment in ICE powertrains.
 
F1 is a giant anachronism. It is paid for by petroleum and legacy car companies largely. I don't see it surviving much longer. Covid may have done it in already. Legacy car companies will soon be unable to justify the spending. Some of the excellent engineers that are shed will migrate over to Formula E but there should be many that are available to Tesla and Space X. They will be accustomed to the culture of rapid innovation and first principle thinking that is the hallmark of Musk industries.
 
Well, right now no one manufactures cars in Australia.

Cars do get exported from UK to Australia

Musk don't do "smaller" factories.

Though this is a one source rumour.

Highly unlikely to come about.
I agree with you but...just as Tilburg came to exist to minimize the negative impact of EU duties so also other CKD and/or more specialized factories will certainly be happening. The UK, for example, could well be primarily about storage, and possibly mostly utility level storage. If for vehicles also, perhaps, but certainly no GF. It seems transparently obvious that an application to be a utility-level energy provider is connected to the factory speculation. The time has come to be somewhat more refined in our thinking about what new factories will do. After all Fremont, GF-1 and GF-2 are not remotely similar, nor is GF-3 seeming to be an analogue for any of the others. As for GF-4 we know surprises will come. We seem to be largely ignoring the probable output of new development facilities in China and Germany. Then we have not much direct insight into the pending new US factory, probably Texas. We all assume that that one will produce Cybertruck, and lately we assume Model Y. The Cybertruck one is certainly true but what else? How about storage? A quick change in Texas regulation and suddenly Texas will become the largest NA storage market. Beyond that how will Tesla meet the CA demand for solar roof plus storage as the CA new housing market recovers? Another new factory will be in the offing. Will one of the new ones be on the US/Mexico border, or the US/Canada one? Just think, please, what continuing growth of ~50% per year or even 25% will mean. There must be at least five or six new factories of one size or product combination or other.

We are being far too limited in our thinking.
 
Survey of central bankers and finance ministers. One quote:

"Clean energy infrastructure is also helpfully very labour intensive in the early stages –one model suggests that every $1m in spending generates 7.49 full-time jobs in renewables infrastructure, 7.72 in energy efficiency, but only 2.65 in fossil fuels"

"Post-crisis recovery spending offers an opportunity to embed climate-positive behaviours, by supporting teleworking, high-speed broadband connectivity, and residential energy efficiency."

https://www.smithschool.ox.ac.uk/publications/wpapers/workingpaper20-02.pdf
 
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Yes, this is really good! My wife's working and staff cannot watch today's. So Tesla round 2 is Sat!

How is it possible that anybody can be as smart as Elon Musk? I honestly believe Elon should freeze a lot of his sperm. He now has 5 children. I think he should have many more.

I posted on my facebook page yesterday that a lot of these Minneapolis George Floyd riots were caused by people overreacting to pandemic isolation. Being cooped up in an apartment for two months alone without exercise and washing my hands every 20 minutes would cause me to explode and overreact to any bad news on tv. Heck what do I know? I got so many angry posts that I deleted it. Am I seeing this wrong?

I post this irrelevant information because I don't know how to start a new post. My apologies.
 
Is everyone ready for another Model X filled SpaceX launch prep for today? Supposedly the weather is still a bit iffy, with a 50% chance of another Scrub. The next launch would be tomorrow, but storms are also predicted for then.

Yup, most of FL is now in the "wet" season with TStorms every afternoon. Northern Fl is much less frequent/severe than South but still an issue.
 
  • Informative
Reactions: LN1_Casey
Lol, then why does their headline claim "Honda Civic Is Best Seller in California New Vehicle market"?

Jolly jokers just can't bring themselves to see the sea change. Now, with the start of Model Y deliveries, it's coming like a Tidal wave (Tsunami of Hertz?) ;)

Cheers!

They've published a revised PDF with the correct headline:

Tesla Model 3 Is Best Selling Car in California New Vehicle Market; RAV4 is Light Truck Leader

https://www.cncda.org/wp-content/uploads/Cal-Covering-1Q-20-REVISED.pdf
 
I agree with you but...just as Tilburg came to exist to minimize the negative impact of EU duties so also other CKD and/or more specialized factories will certainly be happening. The UK, for example, could well be primarily about storage, and possibly mostly utility level storage. If for vehicles also, perhaps, but certainly no GF. It seems transparently obvious that an application to be a utility-level energy provider is connected to the factory speculation. The time has come to be somewhat more refined in our thinking about what new factories will do. After all Fremont, GF-1 and GF-2 are not remotely similar, nor is GF-3 seeming to be an analogue for any of the others. As for GF-4 we know surprises will come. We seem to be largely ignoring the probable output of new development facilities in China and Germany. Then we have not much direct insight into the pending new US factory, probably Texas. We all assume that that one will produce Cybertruck, and lately we assume Model Y. The Cybertruck one is certainly true but what else? How about storage? A quick change in Texas regulation and suddenly Texas will become the largest NA storage market. Beyond that how will Tesla meet the CA demand for solar roof plus storage as the CA new housing market recovers? Another new factory will be in the offing. Will one of the new ones be on the US/Mexico border, or the US/Canada one? Just think, please, what continuing growth of ~50% per year or even 25% will mean. There must be at least five or six new factories of one size or product combination or other.

We are being far too limited in our thinking.

Given that US Shale/Fracking got recently screwed by OPEC+, if TX (which already has large wind generation) get's into Virtual Grid via storage, US Oil can remain in ground, and there should be public (US) consensus (one would hope) to transition to EV even faster.
 
Comparing the NASDAQ weekly chart for TSLA vs QQQ (ie: NASDAQ-100 index), we can see that TSLA very nearly recovered the ground it lost midweek as macros posted gains.

I do think some of the gain in the last 15 min of trading for TSLA was (as @Curt Renz often points out to us), large Institutional investors 'right-sizing' returns at the end of the month.

TSLA.5-Day.2020-05-29.png


It will be interesting to see if this happens again on Tue, Jun 30 (also the end of the Quarter), so consequently the closing SP is of great interest to large investors.

Cheers!
 
Here's my theory:

...if you disrupt the transportation and energy infrastructure of the world, what does that look like in a as-best-as-possible managed way for 7.7B+ people w/ everyone working together w/o wars? Paris Climate Accord by Barack Obama was pretty incredible - signed by every country on the planet. Tesla was skyrocketing leading up to it in 2013/2014 and Paris Climate Accord was signed in 2015. Then, climate/green energy investing was steady-state. Now, its skyrocketing in a more sustainable way and having full support of all sides of the political spectrum in the US and every other country.

I like to share information because, fundamentally, it should not be hidden and should be free. Help yourself by helping others. I think we're all on a path to an amazing future; if we survive climate change and the health + social reaction(s) to it.

Edit: I think the lesson that we're going to learn is that a polished, well-spoken, and great leader who happens to be a black man, and another guy from South Africa, just saved society (and 7.7B people) and put us all on a path to an amazing future.
 
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