Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[wipster]

Remember, "He who dies with the most toys, WINS"

I hope they don't have to be properly arranged... my 3 car garage and two bedrooms are full and they're creeping down the hall...

But I'm winning!!!

 

[Thekiwi]

It’s almost June and the stock is over $800. March is over. Q1 ER was a big success.

The virus may still be infecting people but Tesla is building and selling cars, and are in the best financial position of any OEM by a mile. TLSA is reflecting that.

Agree that Tesla is the best positioned OEM no question.

Would caution though not to count out the ongoing global economic impact of CoronaVirus and its near term impact on sales. Despite being offline for US production for a big portion of the quarter, Tesla still had enough excess production for the quarter that they dropped prices on S/3/X. I know some here will disagree and argue that the price drops were planned and nothing to do with lower sales volumes, but I don’t think that is plausible when the factory was offline for so long and yet one can still order today and receive a car before quarter end. I don’t know why some here (not directed at you personally Krugerrand) take so much offence to the thought that model S/3/X demand might be temporarily softer in the middle of the worst economic shock in modern history. It isn’t a criticism against Tesla or it’s future fortunes, it’s purely due to a massive macro shock outside Tesla’s control. If Tesla was able to ship & deliver more units to Europe before quarter end the pricing situation would highly likely be different, but that simply isn’t possible.

I expect sales to pick up substantially in Q3 & Q4 once the majority of potential Tesla buyers are feeling more secure about there employment. New economic data released today showed record high level of US household income in the month of April (juiced by stimulus checks and doubling of unemployment benefits), but a record decrease in consumer spending - meaning everyone was in cash HODL mode and building their savings.

Personal Income and Outlays: April 2020 | U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA)

 

[elasalle]

 

[JusRelax]

Tesla Model 3 is the best selling vehicle (This includes SUVs and pickups) in California:

https://www.cncda.org/wp-content/uploads/Cal-Covering-2020-Q1-Combined.pdf

 

[Krugerrand]

How do you figure?

Did you sell in after-hours?

I think he gets to chug a beer every time the SP goes up $1. Think he has to drink milk when it goes down.

 

[LJS22]

What’s left to squeeze from the shorts? Did we close high enough today to initiate some covering on Monday?

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Tesla Model 3 is the best selling vehicle (This includes SUVs and pickups) in California:

The Model Freakin' Y is gonna cannibalize a decent chunk of Model 3 demand.....and literally the rest of half these categories. If M3 can crush the Civic/Camry/Accord, what on Earth is this grid gonna look like in 18 months? A Highlander is $34k+gas. People will definitely jump up from a semi-loaded RAV4 to base MY. It's gonna be a bloodbath.

Adapt!

 

[TheTalkingMule]

What’s left to squeeze from the shorts? Did we close high enough today to initiate some covering on Monday?

Cramer mentioned short interest was 11%. Surprisingly low. I think a good few of them have given up.

 

[woodisgood]

Tesla Model 3 is the best selling vehicle (This includes SUVs and pickups) in California:

https://www.cncda.org/wp-content/uploads/Cal-Covering-2020-Q1-Combined.pdf

View attachment 546059

Incorrect headline though!
EDIT: On the pdf.

 

[jerry33]

Daimler has been working with multiple battery research partners, what they need to do is turn that urgency and research into viable products.

Which they won't be able to do, other than just token efforts, because their shareholders expect a profit.

 

[MC3OZ]

The Model Freakin' Y is gonna cannibalize a decent chunk of Model 3 demand.....and literally the rest of half these categories. If M3 can crush the Civic/Camry/Accord, what on Earth is this grid gonna look like in 18 months? A Highlander is $34k+gas. People will definitely jump up from a semi-loaded RAV4 to base MY. It's gonna be a bloodbath.

Adapt!

This is why Model 3 price cuts are very significant, I'm not denying demand issue in Q2 may have been part of the decision..

Why buy a Civic/Camry/Accord when you can buy a Model 3, and save on fuel?

There is only one reason to get the ICE, lower initial purchase price, every dollar of Model 3 price reduction eats into that price difference.

Now all we need is Battery Investor day to show Tesla can scale battery pack volumes with car production and grow worldwide production fairly rapidly...

 

[JusRelax]

Cramer mentioned short interest was 11%. Surprisingly low. I think a good few of them have given up.

Tesla short interest as of May 15th; I doubt it would have gone down much since the stock has pretty much remained within 5% of where it closed on May 15th:

Tesla, Inc. Common Stock (TSLA) Short Interest

 

[pz1975]

Tesla Model 3 is the best selling vehicle (This includes SUVs and pickups) in California:

https://www.cncda.org/wp-content/uploads/Cal-Covering-2020-Q1-Combined.pdf

View attachment 546059

I remember when the BMW 3-Series was considered to be the future big competitor for the Model 3. Outselling it by more than 5x in California is amazing!

 

[Krugerrand]

What the HE double L am I going to do with all of this money ?

Model Y and Cyber truck on order. Island shopping on hold due to virus.
Any small continents for sale ?

You could invest in my new basket weaving business. I guarantee I will use all the money you got.

 

[Artful Dodger]

After-action Report: Fri, May 29, 2020: (Full-Day's Trading)

VWAP: $820.65
Volume: 11,909,554
Traded: $9,773,634,017.17 ($9.77 B)

Closing SP / VWAP: 101.82%
(TSLA closed ABOVE today's Avg SP)​

FINRA Short/Total Volume = 40.5% (44th Percentile rank Shorting)
FINRA Volume / Total NASDAQ Vol = 44.7% (45th Percentile rank FINRA Reporting)
FINRA Short Exempt Volume was 1.56% of Short Volume (54th Percentile rank).

Comment: "TSLA Highest Close Since Fremont Shutdown (Feb 24 $833.79)"

 

[Bet TSLA]

I know some here will disagree and argue that the price drops were planned and nothing to do with lower sales volumes, but I don’t think that is plausible when the factory was offline for so long and yet one can still order today and receive a car before quarter end.

I agree that one reason that Tesla might lower prices is to encourage demand. But I think that history shows that another reason is margins getting too high.

I think this is simply part of the mission. Making Tesla vehicles affordable to more people is a goal, so when it becomes possible due to lower COGS, they lower prices. And this happens independent of whether they could sell every single one at a higher price.

 

[UncaNed]

Scroll down @Prunesquallor 's Joe Rogan link below, it says:

"In the first quarter of 2020, the number of net new brokerage accounts at Schwab, Interactive Brokers, and E*Trade surged 39%, 76%, and 119%, respectively, relative to 2019 as a whole"

Those numbers are HUGE. Is this good for us TSLA folks? Because more investors buying into a fixed number of stock shares raise the prices, floating all boats and making the stock investing industry more important and even more too big to fail?

Or are more investors buying into something that, in the imminent recession, has rapidly shrinking inherent value doomed to create an overpriced market of shares bid up despite no commensurate inherent increasing value like the housing market bubble in 2008? Won't this inflate the ICE industry's market cap effectively dragging out the slow motion demise of the ICE industry by raising the stock prices from so many more investors?

Spotify Signs Joe Rogan For $100 Million, Social Commerce, Autonomy, and more.

For Joe Rogan fans - he just snagged a $100 million deal with Spotify.

I'm still using my couple of decades old shaver. The new ones with LiIon don't hold the same amount of charge as (only an hour of use, compared to two hours with mine) and I'd really be afraid of leaving them in the car where they might get too warm.

Takes you 2 hours to shave?? Reminds me of a girlfriend I had...

 

[StealthP3D]

Well...since you asked...nope
However my mental state is different than your's.....so I feel pretty good about this weekend...you?

I feel great about this weekend but not because the share price was up today. I would have to sell everything if my mood correlated to the share prices. I can't live that way. Because I still want to feel good even when the share price is down!.

 

[RobStark]

Australia would be more central. If there is a factory in the UK, it likely won't be a full size gigafactory, just a smaller one for the UK only.

Well, right now no one manufactures cars in Australia.

Cars do get exported from UK to Australia

Musk don't do "smaller" factories.

Though this is a one source rumour.

Highly unlikely to come about.

 

[Artful Dodger]

It is fairy likely Battery Investor Day would be before the Shareholders meeting, that seems like an ideal sequence to me, after the Shareholders meeting and Q2 earnings doesn't seem ideal.

So last 2 weeks of June would be my current hunch,... much later than that Limiting Factor will have worked everything out, he is doing sterling work.

I don't think the "In person, Live" Bty Day event will be scheduled before July 7th. The date for the AGM was specifically chosen as the latest possible date allowed by Delaware law (13 mths max allowed btwn AGMs). Further, in their notice for the AGM, Tesla included language that they reserve the right to change the format of the meeting, including video conference.

Remember, there are still tremendous difficulties with air travel, and further restrictions by California and Alameda County. Tesla is hoping that these constraints will ease by July 7th allowing them to maintain their traditional format for the AGM event.

I think it's far more likely that the "video" portion of Bty Day (as alluded to by Elon on twitter), is included as a special feature during the AGM if Tesla needs to shift to a video conference format. The Bty Day "Live In-person" event could then be combined with the launch of the Plaid Model S/X, if that vehicle does in fact use Tesla's new bty tech from a pilot bty line in Fremont.

But remember, due to the shutdown, that timeline is shifted fwd about 7 weeks. So my current guess is, AGM/Bty video on July 7th, followed by a "Live, In-person" Bty Day event in Sept to launch Plaid S/X and demo the bty tech.

Cheers!