Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Tslynk67]

Dang! You weren't bullish enough to make the real money! But that's the way it goes with stock or options trading, no one gets all the profit, all the time.

I have noticed a trend regarding TSLA traders. The more bullish traders seem to make the bulk of the profits. This is how it tends to go with traders of companies that are more productive and more innovative than average. I expect this trend will continue for at least another 5 years. These are the companies that it's especially profitable to buy and hold over longer periods of time rather than having an itchy finger on the "sell" button.

Erm, how can you be bullish selling covered calls, by definition I'm betting the stock won't rise too much? As it was I took a strike that I thought was OK not to have my shares called away - which looks OK now, but a couple of days ago wasn't the case.

If I buy calls then I'm very bullish - I've made big bucks on LEAPS over the last 9 months, and expect that to continue.

I am bullish with the puts I sell too - I have one for today at $875, if it exercises I'm 100% certain I can sell those shares next week for profit, or sell an aggressive ATM call at the beginning of the week.

Full disclosure - last Friday I sold an $815 put for today, closed it on Wednesday for 99% profit and then sold the $875. "Money for old rope" springs to mind

 

[Tslynk67]

Someone really does not want TSLA to stay over $880! Going to get out the popcorn and watch today's battle.

Yeah, looking at the updated options chart, $875 looks like the sweet spot as of market open - this can evolve rapidly throughout the day...

 

[Curt Renz]

Paywalled link: Is Tesla’s Model Y Crossover the World’s Best Car?

Excerpt:

The Model Y's appeal as a driving machine -- its fierce, velvety acceleration, deep-pile powertrain isolation, the absence of friction and stiction, under load and under braking -- is partly born of discontent with the current generation of stammering gassers (see above), all with herky-jerky, multimodal drive programs. From now until about 2030, and irrespective of what the U.S. federal government decrees, global car makers will be shrinking, hybridizing and digitizing their gas-powered engines until they vanish altogether. The endgame of petroleum will be a decade of dizzy, overtaxed turbo four-cylinders, cutting off and on at stop lights, shuddering like washing machines.

 

[Singuy]

I knew today's was going to either suck or be meh due to the premarket action.

Seems like a lot of big money is sitting out andcand market money is just circulating between Covid resistant stocks and old school stocks. Dow goes down, we go up. Dow goes up, we go down. Have to wait till next week for for exuberance to die down and possibly of battery day announcement. Restaurants, even very popular ones are dropping like flies around me even with earlier than expected opening. People really think travel/entertainment is back without a vaccine huh.

 

[StealthP3D]

Rough guess estimate on valuation.

4 Giga factories each manufacturing 500,000 Units per year, hence 2 million total.
2 million units at $4,000 net profit per unit. That implies $8 billion net profit.
Give that a 40 multiple, therefore a $320 billion mkt cap.

At present we are at about $160 billion mkt cap.
Hence a double in the stock price if all else remains the same.
The 2 million production figure is at least 2 years away.

This is a very simplistic way to look at it with potentially HUGE errors.

If Tesla can demonstrate a fast enough growth rate, coupled with an obvious and enduring technological lead, the market might very well award them a multiple much higher than 40X. Multiples of earnings are a terrible way to value such a company. But to look at it from a perspective of earnings multiples, it might be in excess of 150x in a couple of years. This is all very speculative but for the purposes of this kind of exercise, quite on point. So, using your same earnings rate, and just adjusting the multiple assigned by the market, the share price could be 8X the current amount.

Simplistic use of earnings multiples to value companies with exceptional growth rates are a primary reason why investors who believe they are focussing on "true value" miss the exceptional growth of exceptional companies year after year. And this is where most market profits are generated.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

This macro recovery will be washed away at some point over the next 9 months. I wouldn't worry about missing the boat on this. Chevron crossed $101 today for god's sake. Does anyone think they're worth nearly $200B? Revenue and earnings are F'ed for non-tech stocks for the foreseeable future. June/July will be a great time to short if you ask me, because once this election's over.....the stimulus stops and the payback begins. With unemployment north of 10%.....

 

[StealthP3D]

Honestly, these numbers completely shocked me.

Far, far better than I would have guessed in my most positive scenario.

It's being reported as the biggest one-month jobs gain ever (I haven't fact checked that): May sees biggest jobs increase ever of 2.5 million as economy starts to recover from coronavirus

This is directly attributable to the amount of time you spend in the Coronavirus forum.

I believe there is a strong inverse relationship with the amount of time spent in the Coronavirus forum and portfolio performance.

 

[StealthP3D]

Yes, but after it went down it went up again some. It could be there is more than one actor in the game.

No, I'm pretty sure one market participant is solely responsible for the share price. /s

 

[Tim S]

Rough guess estimate on valuation.

4 Giga factories each manufacturing 500,000 Units per year, hence 2 million total.
2 million units at $4,000 net profit per unit. That implies $8 billion net profit.
Give that a 40 multiple, therefore a $320 billion mkt cap.

At present we are at about $160 billion mkt cap.
Hence a double in the stock price if all else remains the same.
The 2 million production figure is at least 2 years away.

Your net profit per unit looks way too low to me.

 

[EinSV]

This is directly attributable to the amount of time you spend in the Coronavirus forum.

I believe there is a strong inverse relationship to the amount of time spent in the Coronavirus forum and portfolio performance.

LOL, probably true (especially the last part), although in fairness reading reactions outside TMC the unemployment numbers seemed to surprise almost everyone.

Luckily, being a long-time $TSLA investor has taught me to filter the signal from the noise and form my own opinions. I bought heavily in late March/early April on the coronavirus dip, although I did not expect the turnaround to start off this quick/strong.

 

[wipster]

Honestly, these numbers completely shocked me.

Far, far better than I would have guessed in my most positive scenario.

It's being reported as the biggest one-month jobs gain ever (I haven't fact checked that): May sees biggest jobs increase ever of 2.5 million as economy starts to recover from coronavirus

What needs to be said however is that these "new jobs" in truth aren't new at all. They're rehires, not new hires. Was definitely to be expected once the quarantine started to be lifted around the country. New hires and job expansion is what needs to be celebrated IMHO and I think we're a year or two away from that... except for Tesla and associated businesses that is.

 

[StealthP3D]

Erm, how can you be bullish selling covered calls, by definition I'm betting the stock won't rise too much?

Ummm...yes, that was my point.

 

[SpeedGoat]

No, I'm pretty sure one market participant is solely responsible for the share price. /s

Only when it moves down.

When the numbers get bigger it isn't because "someone" is doing "something."


Since it may not have been sufficiently obvious...

I think there are some here who are looking at a squiggly line and trying to invent a narrative to describe motion that is little more than noise.

"Whoa, someone doesn't want the numbers to get bigger than XXX!," or "They really want a number of about XXX today!" or "There will be a great battle this afternoon as powerful forces will establish a new equilibrium either somewhat higher, or perhaps lower, or maybe just about the same, before the arbitrary deadline for trading expires."

 

[SpeedGoat]

What needs to be said however is that these "new jobs" in truth aren't new at all. They're rehires, not new hires. Was definitely to be expected once the quarantine started to be lifted around the country. New hires and job expansion is what needs to be celebrated IMHO and I think we're a year or two away from that... except for Tesla and associated businesses that is.

People returning to work is definitely worth celebrating. We were flirting with Great Depression level numbers in some of the economic indicators. The faster people get back to work the better.

 

[StealthP3D]

LOL, probably true (especially the last part), although in fairness reading reactions outside TMC the unemployment numbers seemed to surprise almost everyone.

Errr, yes. Most of the world seems to be in a Coronavirus induced panic.

Luckily, being a long-time $TSLA investor has taught me to filter the signal from the noise and form my own opinions. I bought heavily in late March/early April on the coronavirus dip, although I did not expect the turnaround to start off this quick/strong.

Good job! My forecast when TSLA was still dropping was that TSLA would lead early and strong out of the dip. This was before Cathie Wood made her first "V-shaped recovery" prediction. I also took action on it by buying 200 more shares (100 at $356 and 100 at $365).

 

[wipster]

People returning to work is definitely worth celebrating. We were flirting with Great Depression level numbers in some of the economic indicators. The faster people get back to work the better.

Not disputing that, I hope this continues, but in a normal no covid-19 economy, it's job growth because of economic expansion that's celebrated, not the rehiring of people previously let go or laid off. That's all I'm saying.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Here's what MMs are doing to TSLA on a day when the NASDAQ-100 (ticker:NDX) hit all-time highs: (QQQ is a proxy for NDX but it reports beginning at 08:00 hrs ET)

EDIT: Chart updated to 11:14 hrs EDT

Guess Max Pain will be enforced today.

#knowManipulation

 

[FreqFlyer]

More free advertising and very comprehensive Model 3 Perfomance Review.........."The competition is going to have to step their game up".

 

[The Accountant]

Multiples of earnings are a terrible way to value such a company. But to look at it from a perspective of earnings multiples, it might be in excess of 150x in a couple of years

You mean like this?

I am sure many people sold at a nice profit in 2015 at $587/share.
Amazon went on to triple to $1,451 by 2017.

 

[Tslynk67]

Ummm...yes, that was my point.

Well it's based on the fact that we've been kept in a trading channel by Citadel Capital for month of May... Plus I want to increase my core shares, so I sell (normally) safe covered calls against them, and buy more shares with the premium. I absolutely do not want my core shares to be called away, but I'm happy to take advantage of the manipulation.

My trading account is another matter and considering it was at $3k in September and is now $225k, I think some of my choices have been quite OK