Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[thait84]

I want a TSLA 1000 hat, but it is short notice so I'll just settle for a TSLA 5000 hat later.

 

[dc_h]

Wow, floored about the sketchy email being legit. I mean, I suppose Overlord Musk really is keeping the next GF location close to chest then! “Other states” indeed.

Waiting for the other shoe to drop! Will he announce a new factory this week? I hope next week to maintain steady pressure up to 1200.

 

[MABMAB]

When the ICE companies go bankrupt, who will perform service?

 

[Mike Smith]

Short sellers suffered through 12 years of losses waiting for a recession, and most of them just lost even more money. I think short selling is about to become extremely unpopular, hugely benefiting TSLA.

 

[M|S|M MYP]

When the ICE companies go bankrupt, who will perform service?

Maybe Elon will start a SC for ICE vehicles ...... NOT!

 

[LN1_Casey]

Waiting for the other shoe to drop! Will he announce a new factory this week? I hope next week to maintain steady pressure up to 1200.

Hey, that's where my next sell order is. 1234.56 I figured it's a nice "step up" point.

I don't think we'll make it, though. At least, not until after Q2 P&D is released.

 

[Knightshade]

ALL of those are good numbers...but not backed by the same reason... cars were undependable and building them was rocket science compared to how horses were produced.
BEVs are less complicated than ICE cars ..and more dependable already(?)

Tell that to basically everyone not-tesla struggling to make a decent EV.

Tell that to VW piling up tens of thousands of cars in parking lots because they don't know how software works.

To most legacy companies this is rocket science.

And you're gonna need a lot more than only Tesla if you want to be producing 80 million new EVs a year in a mere decade.

 

[Zaxxon]

Short sellers suffered through 12 years of losses waiting for a recession, and most of them just lost even more money. I think short selling is about to become extremely unpopular, hugely benefiting TSLA.

Plus, they now have NKLA to short. For all the failings of TSLAQ, most of their complaints actually do apply to NKLA...

 

[LN1_Casey]

When the ICE companies go bankrupt, who will perform service?

3rd party companies, like those who service Pontiac. Parts though, they'll slowly get swallowed up and cause an even quicker demise to the ICE market.

 

[dc_h]

I can’t stop watching the ticker.

 

[H Mak]

I've been to the garden centre today. Before I left I noticed the price was in the 990s in premarket so opened my phone on the Tesla Marketwatch page. Every time I stopped at traffic lights I checked the price and it is was still in the 990s. When I got to the garden centre the queue was huge so I didn't bother waiting and set off for home. On the way home I checked again and......BOOM!
So I bought a bottle of champagne on my way home. My wife was startled when I got back - with no plant, but a bottle of champagne!
This one's for you Elon

 

[colettimj]

I'm calling it now, four talking heads on CNBC after marked close, all stating variations of "I have no idea how to value TSLA"

 

[Krugerrand]

I think we can pretty much write off the entire automotive industry at this point. Six months ago I thought VW still had a shot at capturing large EV market share alongside Tesla with the ID.3 and ID.4, but those are turning out to be a disaster. Furthermore, VW appears to now be turning against Diess, the only executive in the automotive industry who seemed to understand the reality of the situation, and the world is left with the likes of Mary Barra making statements like this...

Looks like at best we're going to have to wait another 3, 4, 5 years for the next generation of EVs from traditional auto, that maybe will be serious enough of an effort to sell hundreds of thousands per year. But Tesla will already be selling millions of vehicles per year at that point. And investments into those programs would have to be made now, while a lot of OEMs are struggling due to the COVID-19 crisis.

It really seems like Tesla will just end up with Apple iPhone like market share, and perhaps also margins, in the automotive industry. And by Apple iPhone like market share, I'm referring to their near 50% market share from a few years ago, not their current ~20% market share. With Diess seemingly on his way out, nobody besides Tesla even seems to be interested in mass manufacturing and selling EVs, let alone have the capability to do so. I just don't see anyone else who will be able to sell 10M+ EVs per year by 2030 other than Tesla. Hell, at this point I'm not even sure if anyone other than Tesla can sell 10M+ cumulative EVs by 2030.

I don't think comparing the smart phone market to the automotive market is a good way to look at Tesla's potential value, but with that in mind let's make the comparison anyway. The smart phone market may be ~15x larger than the automotive market (1.5B vs 100M), the ASP of a car is about 50x that of an Apple iPhone (~$40k vs ~$800), and about 80x that of the average smart phone (~$40k vs ~$500). So the automotive market Tesla is going after is about 3-5x the size of the smart phone market Apple went after.

Uh, huh. Nice to see some people turning around to my point of view I’ve had for a couple of years now.

They’re all toast. Chinese and possible an EV only startup or two along with Tesla are the only ones that survive.

The snowball has been pushed. The upper portion of the mountain is a very gentle down slope but soon it drops off. The bottom half of the mountain will make that snowball hit terminal velocity as it grows exponentially in size. There won’t be a government on the planet that can save their old homegrown OEMs.

We’re taking part in a historical shift. I hope to live long enough to see the final outcome. Exciting times!!

 

[c041v]

It's a lot of thing. But à la style du film "Big short":

Imagine a scene where Steve Carell sits down in a booth to interview a stripper who bought NKLA options on Robinhood with their COVID check.

Then he make this face after finding out the details:

While I am jubilant to see TSLA over $1,000, @Causalien might have a point... Everything about the image below has me concerned. Everything.

 

[Silentk]

This would be a good moment to bury the hatchet and for @factchecking and @KarenRei to return to the fold...

 

[elasalle]

This would be a good moment to bury the hatchet and for @factchecking and @KarenRei to return to the fold...

View attachment 549974

Was any action taken on the MOD who caused it? (Just asking)

 

[StealthP3D]

Well they did have a bunch of downtime at Fremont recently while GigaNevada was still running, so maybe they built enough of a stockpile of cells to be able to start making Semis.

A stockpile of cells from known production volume could never be big enough to start meaningful semi production without impacting car production. I think this announcement indicates a huge ramping of cell production volumes, now or in the near future.

 

[JusRelax]

@KarenRei has such an eloquence with her words:

 

[Silentk]

Was any action taken on the MOD who caused it? (Just asking)

pretty sure apologies were made immediately.

 

[wooter]

Tell that to basically everyone not-tesla struggling to make a decent EV.

Tell that to VW piling up tens of thousands of cars in parking lots because they don't know how software works.

To most legacy companies this is rocket science.

And you're gonna need a lot more than only Tesla if you want to be producing 80 million new EVs a year in a mere decade.

OK, to be honest, it's not rocket science to make one electric car.

The issue is that OEMs were late in getting their supply chain in order to build multiple electric cars, similar to competitors not being able to source chips and touchscreens because Apple had paid suppliers to build factories to make touchscreens and chips.

Additionally, we have a software company building a car, similar to a software and hardware company building a smartphone.

We're not asking OEM's to build one electric car. We are asking them to build many electric cars, using state of the art user-friendly software people have learned to expect in their consumer devices. Just like helicopter surveillance companies feel the effects of easy to get and control drones, camera companies feeling the effects of smartphones, or brick and mortar stores and even mail-order companies feel the effect of Amazon.

For a good reason, car companies were car companies. Now car companies need to regrow themselves into software companies, and they're learning the hard way that software works differently and much much faster, and the star developers are hard to get by and technologies emerge and die within less than 5 years.