Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[StealthP3D]

I would love to hear people's thoughts on this

Tesla is pretty unique and therefore S&P 500 inclusion is likely to impact the share price in a more dramatic fashion than more traditional additions although I tend to believe it will be mostly for the other reasons Tesla Facts mentioned as opposed to the fact that they are not in the S&P 400. That's one more tailwind that I hadn't even considered, for sure, but I'm guessing the amount of money tied to S&P 500 must be many times greater than the S&P 400 which (if true) would imply this is a small tailwind, not a big one.

I don't know who has estimated the relative size of positions tied to the two benchmarks. Anyone?

 

[UnknownSoldier]

The firesales of Tesla's "competitors" seem to be intensifying as Y ramps. These dealers know soon they will never be able to move them so it's now or never I guess.

Audi E-Tron available for over $15k+ off MSRP (63k for 80k car), Jaguar I-Pace available for $20k+ off MSRP ($50k for 71k)- Both qualify for additional $7500 Federal Tax Credit

Whatever happened to all the "competition" that Smeagol kept on bleating about before his one-man hedge fund collapsed under the weight of his conviction TSLA shorts? Also does anyone think that Audi and Jaguar will continue to produce new model years of these cars or will they just throw in the towel?

 

[JusRelax]

I would love to hear people's thoughts on this

IMHO, seems a lot more likely than __TSLA__ on reddit.

 

[CorneliusXX]

A year ago I was rebuked and attacked by domineering voices on this thread for suggesting such things. But with each year that passes, Tesla has even more ways to refresh the Model S and keep it current. Hold your stones, friends.

My read of this board is that there's 1) an older average age on this board than on most of the internet discussions, and 2) quite a few people that are independently wealthy. This means that you're likely to come across people who ran out of F*cks quite a while ago and who haven't had to answer to a boss for some time - leading to some direct conversation.

I wouldn't take criticism as a personal attack, just some commentators perhaps being a little overly pronounced with their thoughts compared to what you might find on other forums. In many ways this is helpful as ideas get tested rigorously.

 

[Prunesquallor]

Is this Factchecking on Twitter? I forgot it‘s his birthday too today...

https://twitter.com/truth_tesla/status/1277321864101138433?s=21

Well, that’s quite a scenario.

It drives one to imagine that the last opportunity to buy "cheap" TSLA shares may be rapidly approaching.

 

[The Martian]

Seems at least plausible. Great find if true!

Edit: This tweet seems to strongly imply that it's FactChecking - https://twitter.com/truth_tesla/status/1272747505780957185?s=20

More evidence

 

[TheTalkingMule]

My read of this board is that there's 1) an older average age on this board than on most of the internet discussions, and 2) quite a few people that are independently wealthy. This means that you're likely to come across people who ran out of F*cks quite a while ago and who haven't had to answer to a boss for some time - leading to some direct conversation.

I wouldn't take criticism as a personal attack, just some commentators perhaps being a little overly pronounced with their thoughts compared to what you might find on other forums. In many ways this is helpful as ideas get tested rigorously.

I disagree. If anything it feels like the avg age has dropped quite a bit over the last few years. We had very little dbag-toned posting in 2014 and I attribute it to more a day-trader-wannabe type posters coming on board since 2016ish when Tesla officially became "cool".

 

[friit]

More evidence
View attachment 557839

Yes, lots of interaction there. Just scrolling their feed makes it look more and more probable. Great content as is to be expected too. Target share price is 6 figures

 

[Buckminster]

Tesla is pretty unique and therefore S&P 500 inclusion is likely to impact the share price in a more dramatic fashion than more traditional additions although I tend to believe it will be mostly for the other reasons Tesla Facts mentioned as opposed to the fact that they are not in the S&P 400. That's one more tailwind that I hadn't even considered, for sure, but I'm guessing the amount of money tied to S&P 500 must be many times greater than the S&P 400 which (if true) would imply this is a small tailwind, not a big one.

I don't know who has estimated the relative size of positions tied to the two benchmarks. Anyone?

Fact Checking in Jan of this year:

He also pointed out the fact that because Tesla isn't in the S&P 400 either, there's an even larger 'gradient' between fund ownership of TSLA before and after the inclusion event.

Near-future quarterly financial projections

 

[Buckminster]

@luvb2b hasn't been seen since Jan either. Another great loss.

 

[traxila]

Seems at least plausible. Great find if true!

Edit: This tweet seems to strongly imply that it's FactChecking - https://twitter.com/truth_tesla/status/1272747505780957185?s=20

This is most certainly Fact Checking.

 

[Buckminster]

This is most certainly Fact Checking.

I'm not so sure. The recent stuff certainly sounds like him and is of the same quality. However, his earlier tweets seem to be mostly retweeting. Mostly good stuff though I guess. I would have expected him to have found his twitter voice earlier. This doesn't fit:
https://twitter.com/ThiagosActionTV/status/1263983642403131396
Also, I don't see anything political - I would have expected a bit from him also.

 

[Twooz]

This is most certainly Fact Checking.

I must be new to this concept. What does it mean that it is certainly fact checking? A means to test Twitter's fact feature or? Does this mean it's inaccurate?

 

[traxila]

I must be new to this concept. What does it mean that it is certainly fact checking? A means to test Twitter's fact feature or? Does this mean it's inaccurate?

FactChecking was a great contributor to this forum who is no longer here. That was his handle.

 

[ByeByeJohnny]

Tesla is pretty unique and therefore S&P 500 inclusion is likely to impact the share price in a more dramatic fashion than more traditional additions although I tend to believe it will be mostly for the other reasons Tesla Facts mentioned as opposed to the fact that they are not in the S&P 400. That's one more tailwind that I hadn't even considered, for sure, but I'm guessing the amount of money tied to S&P 500 must be many times greater than the S&P 400 which (if true) would imply this is a small tailwind, not a big one.

I don't know who has estimated the relative size of positions tied to the two benchmarks. Anyone?

Isn't there also an S&P100 index? Does that index have a lot less funds following the index and thus less important? Shouldn't Tesla be something like top 50 in the S&P index and thus also included in S&P100. Or does it have other requirements than the 500 to be included.

 

[Twooz]

FactChecking was a great contributor to this forum who is no longer here. That was his handle.

OK, that makes sense. Thank you for explaining! I never would have guessed that

 

[UnknownSoldier]

Isn't there also an S&P100 index? Does that index have a lot less funds following the index and thus less important? Shouldn't Tesla be something like top 50 in the S&P index and thus also included in S&P100. Or does it have other requirements than the 500 to be included.

There are a lot of S&P indexes but the only significant S&P index in terms of tracking funds and money under management is the S&P 500.

TIL the S&P 500 actually has 503 ticker symbols because several companies, notably Google, have multiple share classes which must be tracked.

 

[wipster]

Seems at least plausible. Great find if true!

Edit: This tweet seems to strongly imply that it's FactChecking - https://twitter.com/truth_tesla/status/1272747505780957185?s=20

Well, I replied to the thread and wished him happy birthday... we'll see if he (or she) replies back!

 

[MC3OZ]

Thank you! It really opened my eyes on Litium and Tera Factory building!

Yes the mining guy owns shares in a Lithium mine, and was talking his book to some extent...

However, his main point was it takes 5 years to ramp a new Lithium mine, so Tesla can't scale to 2 TWh in 3 years.
Car makers are squeezing margins in the current battery supply chain with the current over supply of Lithium prices are low and new mine investments are going slow.

So if someone "beep beep" finds a way of scaling battery production quickly, the supply of raw materials might become the rate limiting step.

Sure Lithium isn't the only material needed, it might even be the bottleneck, lots of Carbon and Nickel are also needed.

I think the point of Thacker Pass was this is a Lithium reserve that will be expensive to mine and process. I have a hunch he was talking about processing, specifically removing some impurities. So Thacker Pass is a Mine Tesla might be able to buy at a good price, because some science, engineering, R&D and investment is needed, but it has large reserves.

I think he also implied that if Tesla can find a way of living with some of the impurities in battery formulations, that might lower the cost of processing. If he isn't talking about impurities, he might be talking about the specific lithium chemistry.

I think Tesla is scaling to 2TWh in a time-frame more like 7-10 years, .but they are now investigating supply volumes, that is why Elon talked about mining..Lithium and or Nickel are the most likely candidates, but it could be any raw material

 

[friit]

I'm not so sure. The recent stuff certainly sounds like him and is of the same quality. However, his earlier tweets seem to be mostly retweeting. Mostly good stuff though I guess. I would have expected him to have found his twitter voice earlier. This doesn't fit:
https://twitter.com/ThiagosActionTV/status/1263983642403131396
Also, I don't see anything political - I would have expected a bit from him also.

There's some politics further back, but most notably his idiosyncratic propensity to pontificate on a multitude of subjects is intact. Perhaps this is a good time to start following for as you say, he seems to have found his voice on the platform.