Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[elasalle]

Back on May 3rd I stated my belief was that markets would recoil 50% due to COVID-19 and that this TMC Investors thread was "broken" and took a break from it. I was wrong on both counts, bigly. A believer in Tesla since 2012, Elon's tweets during the shut down rattled me and I thought I could time the dip. My success rate is now one out of six tries. Mssed out on a $150/sh increase rally before buying back, now with 20% less shares than I had previously, still a princely sum. Hoping my friends here at TMC forgive me for my lapse of judgement. Although I still believe markets are overbought, not so for TSLA. With every new car sold by Tesla, I really do believe they receive a customer for life.

Still working full time with limited time on my hands, my new strategy is to read through this thread at end of day to posts that have at least 10 or more likes, loves, dislikes, etc. which quickly gets the to the wheat and leave the chalf. Thank you all for your excellent posts and ratings of posts.

Some quick ballbark calculations.
$50k car @ 20% profit = $10k profit/car
upgrades after purchase are essentially 100% profit to Tesla. Therefore:
$2k AP @ 100% profit = $2k profit/AP. 5.0 AP upgrades = profit of one additional car sold.
$7k FSD @ 100% profit = $7k profit/FSD. 1.4 FSD upgrades = profit of one additional car sold.
The last end of quarter push to generate additional profit by reducing the cost of these OTA upgrades is not be underestimated. Profit secured.

I did my part at 10:48pm last night. I can't wait to drive my Tesla this morning!
View attachment 559005

Had the Fed not intervened you would have been right.
I was counting on #1 making the economy and markets tick. Added everything I had on the way down, took (& taking) profits on the way up....converting back to MMs and Bonds
cheers!!

 

[Tslynk67]

Since he was right on the money last quarter, I bet his estimate is being looked at closely by a lot of people

Yeah, signed up for his Patreon now. Took me a while to warm to his voice, but I can't fault his analysis and the quality he puts out. He deserves some of my money.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Yes, I am sooo clever that I put in a buy limit of $945 and went to take a shower.

View attachment 558180

See? Even buying in 'late' yesterday morning at $1,000 you're still up over a $100/share.

Ain't TSLA amazing?!

EDIT: 4.7M chairs traded by 10:30 ET, SP $1025.31

Cheers!

 

[StealthP3D]

Buy the car buy the stock becomes harder the higher it goes....and it's going higher for sure.

So I am in favor of a healthy stock split.

When it comes to stock splits, there are advantages either way. Personally, I would like to look forward to the day I can buy a brand new Tesla with only one share of TSLA!

And that's not going to happen if they split the shares.

 

[StealthP3D]

So much for threatening California with leaving.

Tesla moves very quickly. They can expand a factory, make a bunch of cool stuff, and pick up their things and leave before the State Government understood what just happened. That said, Tesla does what's best for their mission which probably entails maintaining a presence in California unless it becomes more hostile. And Elon never said otherwise.

 

[Mo City]

How much doubt do you have that the delivery report will be stunning?

It would have to stun based on the (still) upward moving expectations.

 

[Words of HABIT]

That's OK! I've long said the human brain and behavior has evolved and refined over the millennia to be exceedingly good at many things but the very adaptations that make it so effective at surviving and reproducing are counter-productive to being a good investor and becoming wealthy. What you have experienced is not unusual, the good thing is you realized it, and accepted it. I think.

I can only hope.

 

[RobStark]

Tesla moves very quickly. They can expand a factory, make a bunch of cool stuff, and pick up their things and leave before the State Government understood what just happened. That said, Tesla does what's best for their mission which probably entails maintaining a presence in California unless it becomes more hostile. And Elon never said otherwise.

He did say otherwise. Stopping all new projects in California and moving them to Nevada/Texas.

Tesla could build 10 Terrafactories in California then close them all down and move.

But that would be really stupid. And Elon is not stupid.

Expanding just a few short months after threatening to move is not very threatening.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Just case there was any lingering doubt, TSLA opened within pennies of the Upper Bollinger Band this morning: $1,083.00 vs $1,083.80 (Upr-BB)

That's how they roll. Deal with it.

Cheers!

 

[MarcoRP]

Don’t think this has been mentioned yet, but today, there are 2 important birthdays to acknowledge:

1- Canada, Happy 152, but that’s not much of a big deal or anything... , and
2- Tesla, founded July 1st 2003 by Eberhard and Tarpenning. It would still be a few months till Elon and JB would join but it is the same company that is thriving 17 years later. Happy birthday Tesla!

 

[Nocturnal]

"I think Tesla will hit 1k a share by late 2020" - Me in late 2019
"lol @me2019. You stupid short, we blew that out of the water mid-2020 during a pandemic" - Me now

 

[Joe F]

If GF ran couple of Nikola's and diverted water from the Soda Fountain, water issue would be resolved.

So far, all Nikola makes is dehydrated water.

 

[lafrisbee]

Indeed.

10:1 seems like a good easy split.

By the time they get together to discuss it a 10x split might still have to high a stock price.

 

[Jo-]

By the time they get together to discuss it a 10x split might still have to high a stock price.

20:1 split at $1380 then

 

[Todesbuckler]

We just reached 1000€ for the first time

 

[lafrisbee]

We just reached 1000€ for the first time

THAT will wake up the Continent!

 

[Artful Dodger]

"I think Tesla will hit 1k a share by late 2020" - Me in late 2019
"lol @me2019. You stupid short, we blew that out of the water mid-2020 during a pandemic" - Me now

Me in late 2020 - Hold my Beer.

 

[Dangerous Fish]

THAT will wake up the Continent!

Not far to go to £1000

 

[canoemore]

Not far to go to £1000

Next stop, 1000 BTC

 

[Troy]

Another thing I just realised Troy has North American sales totalling around 39.5K.

The Electrek article actually suggests 50+10= 60K deliveries in North America in Q2, not 50K. This was published HERE on 25 June. Here is the quote:

My delivery estimate for North America is 36,920+ 2,640= 39,560. That's 20,440 less than 60K.

However, I think I have figured out where that 60K came from. The two numbers shown in yellow add up to 57,346+ 3,874= 61,220. That's total supply for North America, not sales. It looks like somebody confused the two.

Let me clarify this last table. For example for the US, I'm calculating 57,346 units total supply. I estimate 36,920 of that was sold in Q2 and 57,346-36,920= 20,426 units were left.