Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[ZeApelido]

Congratulations to myself.

Not for being an idiot and trying to time the market (thinking TSLA was gonna dip further and I could get moar shares) and selling shares at like $520.

But for biting the bullet and realizing sunk costs and buying it all back at like $690.

If I would have held out further, I'd probably be drunkenly walking buck-naked into the San Francisco Bay.

 

[UnknownSoldier]

Congrats to all of us. Thanks for the constant stream of hard information and investment insight that helped reach this point. Thanks to Elon and everyone who has contributed at the factories. The financial case we all saw has been validated but the Mission itself remains to be completed.
This is the only place to celebrate. Can't tell friends or family how stinking rich I am. It would be bad for relationships especially since none of them took my advise and invested. Now we just have to literally survive the the virus and the current administration.

You can't trust your family? Not even your parents, or your siblings, or your children? I don't know...seems like it would be awfully sad if you literally had to keep your wealth secret from everyone except Internet strangers.

 

[Todd Burch]

Love, but.... this is very dangerous grounds you're stepping on.

It's very dangerous to outright ignore criticism without considering it. Elon and Tesla have become what they are by doing the exact opposite: considering all criticism to see whether it has merit.

Discount and approach with skepticism due to a poor track record? Sure. Ignore? No.

Example: Chip Chowdry. Tesla bull. Worthless analysis.

I don’t mean it in a completely pedantic sense that all criticism should be completely ignored. My point is: consider what that analyst understands, but more importantly what he does NOT understand, before giving any weight to praise or criticism. I’ve found most of them understand diddly-squat, so their feedback has earned no weight from me.

 

[ZeApelido]

People's minds might have changed a bit in a few weeks.

Now when do you think TSLA will first reach $2000? Vote:

When will TSLA first reach $2000 / share - StrawPoll

 

[Todd Burch]

If I would have held out further, I'd probably be drunkenly walking buck-naked into the San Francisco Bay.

Don’t let financial success get in the way of your dreams. Set yourself free, Zeap!

 

[EVortex]

Congratulations to myself.

Not for being an idiot and trying to time the market (thinking TSLA was gonna dip further and I could get moar shares) and selling shares at like $520.

But for biting the bullet and realizing sunk costs and buying it all back at like $690.

If I would have held out further, I'd probably be drunkenly walking buck-naked into the San Francisco Bay.

I only lost 24 shares when I learned my long lesson. Since then, no touchy. Much better.

 

[Mo City]

Dan Ives went in depth on his $2,000 price target on Yahoo Finance show.

Very very bullish, although I feel like he still underestimates Tesla in a number of places:

• 450k units this year, whereas Tesla should do 500k+ without too much trouble.
• 600-700k in 2021, 1M in 2022. Way too bearish. Will be close to, if not above, 1M in 2021 already. 2022 will be next level.
• Talks about Nikola as a potential competitor. This shows a clear lack of understanding of how far ahead Tesla is in terms of vertical integration, manufacturing, etc.
• No talk of autonomy.
• No talk of energy division.

Good times ahead, when even the most bullish analyst still has to catch up to how strong Tesla's position truly is.

This guy thinks TSLA reaching $2,000 could happen in 12 months using his own conservative projections.

Based on what most of us here expect, makes me wonder if TSLA to $2,000 can happen in 6 months, especially considering upcoming Battery Day revelations.

 

[UnknownSoldier]

I want to say a couple words here.

I joined a lot more recently than a lot of you but I always kept coming back because this place has been a great resource not just as an owner of a car but also as an investor. A lot of discussion goes over my head here sometimes, and we have seen members come and go. I think the biggest reason I've stayed is the sheer enthusiasm I've seen for the company, for the products, for the mission, and for humanity's future, even when things were at their most dire.

I know a lot of people became Supporting Members of TMC during the first wave of share price appreciation earlier this year, and at that time I promised myself that I would also do so when I reached my own personal milestone in my portfolio. That day has come, so I'm now also a Supporting Member. I hope in years to come we can still be in this place shooting the s__t long after most of us have made enough to retire and are living the lives we dreamed of in our younger days.

Also I hope some of the members who set sail from this place may one day find their way back to these shores.

 

[qphan79]

I am sure most of us understand that "the best thing about having money is not having to worry about money" and it takes a lot of work to get there (thankfully, someone once told me there are two types of people that work 8 hours a day ,"people that made it and those that never will")
Hopefully my wife and I will live long enough to allow our kids to appreciate what we left behind for them.
Not buying an island, but we are visiting a few....

I’ve had the song “Hey Look Ma, I Made It” play in my head all day today! Picked up a Model Y on Monday. Even though it is now my 3rd Tesla, this week was the one I feel like I truly “made it”. Not quite up to Teslanaire status but the path to it is pretty clear (TSLA @~$2000). Crazy to believe that it is even remotely possibly this year!

But if not this year, then next year or the year after. It will happen! The journey to that will never cease to be thrilling. And then there will be another goal after that! I leave with this lyric from someone who also knows about building great wealth:

“They trying to get they ones, I'm tryin' to get them M's
One million, two million, three million, four...”

 

[Krugerrand]

You all are making me gag with your sentimentalities. It’s going to be a church quilting bee before we hit $1500 at this rate. Act like you knew this was going to happen all along or I’ll have to break my own rule and start putting people on ignore.

 

[FrankSG]

People's minds might have changed a bit in a few weeks.

Now when do you think TSLA will first reach $2000? Vote:

When will TSLA first reach $2000 / share - StrawPoll

I voted 1st half of 2021, because it's the safe vote, and I'm quite confident it'll happen by then. However, I definitely can't rule out by the end of this year, because S&P 500 inclusion is a massive wild card. I just posted in the sentiment thread about this:

Considering:

• The amount of shares that will have to be bought upon S&P 500 inclusion
• The high short interest
• The price inelasticity of many of TSLA's investors
• The amount of money betting on TSLA in the form of options, causing the need for huge amounts of delta hedging
• The amount of Tesla hype in general, and the amount of excited retail activity as of late

I think it's unwise to put a ceiling on TSLA's near term growth. I think you can put a bottom on it, which I would put at somewhere in between $1,500 and $2,000 because of the aforementioned reasons, as well as because of how hard I think Tesla will crush expectations for the 2nd half of 2020.

However, in terms of a ceiling, it's extremely hard to predict how these things will play out. We know at least 15-20M shares will have to be bought by funds indexed to the S&P 500, perhaps multitudes of that if you include the buying from funds benchmarked to the S&P 500. Add delta hedging on top of that, and I wouldn't be surprised if something on the order of 50M shares will have to be bought.

Considering how price inelastic and bullish many current investors are, it's anybody's guess how high the SP has to go before 50M shares worth of sellers show up. It could be $2,000, it could be $2,500, it could be $3,000, perhaps more.

This doesn't mean I won't deleverage a little at some point, but I'll be very reluctant to call a top, and mostly I'm just excited to sit back, relax, and watch the show.

I can't say I think a SP of ~$3,000 this year is likely, but I can't rule it out either. The forced accumulation of tens of millions of shares and delta hedging effects from a massive options market in combination with a very price inelastic investor base is going to be very interesting to watch unfold.

I also wonder how much stock the TMC community owns in aggregate. I assume we're at least the size of a small institutional investor, perhaps a large one. I reckon we have at least a couple 100k shares, perhaps even 1M+ shares all together.

Robinhood is also up to 340.5k holders as of today, making it the 14th most popular stock on the app:

 

[EVortex]

You all are making me gag with your sentimentalities. It’s going to be a church quilting bee before we hit $1500 at this rate. Act like you knew this was going to happen all along or I’ll have to break my own rule and start putting people on ignore.

Man, that bobbing head has got me hypnotized. Such a cool cat.

 

[samppa]

Degiro has today moved TSLA to a higher risk category, which apparently means no margin allowed on TSLA.
At least thats how it was for my all-in tsla account there.
I wasn't using any margin, fortunately.

 

[JBRR]

First post on TMC:
Newbie Options Trading

Learned a thing or two about options since.
How being right and early (in options) is same as being wrong.
How important it is to be willing to bet on your beliefs and stick it out.

Thank you to all you great posters on TMC. Looking forward to see where the next 5 years takes us.

 

[PeterJA]

You all are making me gag with your sentimentalities. It’s going to be a church quilting bee before we hit $1500 at this rate. Act like you knew this was going to happen all along or I’ll have to break my own rule and start putting people on ignore.

As boasted by our local James Bond, I'll go a step further. I know TSLA is going to be a 10-bagger from here, sooner or later, if civilization doesn't shite the bed. The only open question is will it be a 100-bagger from here, as projected by @FrankSG's detailed and careful calculations.
My Tesla Investment Thesis 2.0: Tesla's Monopoly Potential

You might have to buy an archipelago.

 

[Right_Said_Fred]

Meanwhile, while we are partying, in Lalaland shorties are looking under every stone if they can find something to toss on Twitter. Most hilarious one is that the high stock price is a conspiracy: every day many (worthless) high strike calls are being bought by an unknown entity, to push the market makers to hedge, to push the stock to go up. Fraud, fraud, fraud!

And why is it that all these shorties are such alarmists when it comes to COVID-19? Do they need another shutdown to save their TSLA and SPY short positions?

 

[StealthP3D]

Vicious lies! Not enough trees on that island for my liking.

I would think the biggest downside to Iceland is the tunneling potential is problematic due to geothermal issues. For instance, say you run into high pressure geothermal steam at the 200 m depth when trying to establish a secret escape tunnel to the west of your compound. Now you are going to have to settle for secret escape tunnels only to the North, South and East (and hope none of those have geothermal issues).

Very limiting!

 

[StealthP3D]

I beg to disagree. Unequal taxation creates a difference between dollars in different pools. For example dollars in a deferred tax account can not be spent the same as dollars sitting invested in stock that you might owe capital gains on or dollars sitting in your savings account that you owe no taxes on.

True, I should have peppered my statements with "except for tax considerations" as I have done in the past when I commented on this principle. But I was trying to keep the thinking direct and uncluttered with the assumption that tax considerations are always relevant considerations. The source of the money is not.

 

[kanweg]

Degiro has today moved TSLA to a higher risk category, which apparently means no margin allowed on TSLA.
At least thats how it was for my all-in tsla account there.
I wasn't using any margin, fortunately.

I’m with Flatex, which I believe has taken over Degiro. Flatex moved Tesla over to a higher risk category, and I suddenly couldn’t purchase chairs anymore. As an inexperienced investor I had to pass further hurdles but managed by acknowledging that I knew the risk.

I am on margin (which I yesterday reduced by selling some shares, and then regretted).

I’m wondering if they will let me continue do that. Interestingly, they allow me to borrow 50% on margin, But during the Covid low they reduced it to 30%. Great. Wouldn’t that have been safer the other way around? (For those wondering, I’m now at less than 20%.)

 

[Buckminster]

Short Elon's Corporation
Secure Elon's Credit
Sell Elon's Capital

Anyway, Elon doesn't even have a:

as far as I know.

Maybe he does and that is why he needs Ambien to suck on.