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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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Seeking Help from the TSLA Options and Tax planning Veterans
Dear all, I find myself in a fortunate dilemma and could appreciate some advise from ya'll [Summoning my self-declared mentors @ggr @DaveT @FrankSG @Papafox for their blessed guidance, I have learnt a huge deal from you over the years!]

Problem statement
:
=> Investment style/Premise: I have core TSLA position accrued over the years, and prefer to HOLDDDD for a long long time on retirement/post-tax/IRAs. I do not need the money and want it to grow as long as sensible. I am OK with a highly concentrated portfolio % on TSLA, I understand the risks.
=> Picked few Sept 2020 $800 strikes in my post-tax brokerage, had bought these as way-OTM calls at paltry premiums which have now gone into orbit with our astronauts! :eek: [How I wish I did these in Roth IRA/401k but that's another story for later]
=> Given this unique About-to-be-hit-by-the-TAX-train situation what would you gentlemen/ladies advise?

Please assume this year will be record taxable gains like never ever before due to other winning trades [blame AMZN OTM calls], any probably never in the future [since I hope to plan better hereafter]

Options:
  1. Sell ALL/100% of these Sep 2020 $800 contracts for lofty profits
    • Short term federal and state [CA] Cap-gain tax on entire profits, curl up and cry writing the tax check
  2. Sell few of these Sep 2020 $800 contracts, use that money towards exercising the remaining contracts for N x100 TSLA shares and sail into the sunset for years.
    • Short term Cap-gain-tax on sold options. What about the ones I exercise to buy [I have never really exercised options, and does it matter when I exercise them - now vs closer to expiry, its all the same I suppose since premium is lost]
  3. Exercise ALL of these Sep 2020 $800 contracts [I can arrange for the capital] but this would mean my TSLA position becomes TOO concentrated [I am comfortable with that] but I do also have $350 Jun 2022 and Sep 2021 $1000 strikes which also fall in the problem statement.
  4. Roll over to OTM? Would still be taxed, perhaps a preferable approach? Please shed some light on this.
Many many thanks for your insights/pointers!
 
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Wonder if 1,420 is reachable tomorrow...
Nope. At least, not no more for da 1st time... ;)

TSLA.chart.2020-07-06.png


Cheers!
 
Then you're actually agreeing with what I wrote.
No, You wrote of expectations of a short squeeze causing the rise, at least if I understood you right. I think we may see an actual short squeeze: forced buying due to margin calls with not enough shares available to buy. We'll see sudden jumps in execution prices of several dollars. We'll see the stock price go disturbingly high. As I said, 20% jump minimum. Quite possibly much more.

Unlikely, as I said, but certainly quite possible. If it's happening you'll probably see the pre-market up over 100. When it ends is anybody's guess. Depends on how deep the pockets of the shorts are.
 
  • Informative
Reactions: Krugerrand
Found this article on the VW squeeze http://ftalphaville.ft.com/2018/10/31/1540962002000/The-day-Volkswagen-briefly-conquered-the-world/

Could S&P inclusion have a similar effect for TSLA ? Bigger? Much bigger? Or pipe dreams? Excerpts below:


...By the end of the week, the 24th, according to Markit Data, 12 per cent of all shares were sold short, around $10bn worth.

...the shares available to buy on the open market had suddenly dropped to just under 6 per cent.

This was a terrifying prospect for the shorts. ...With 12 per cent of the shares outstanding sold short, it was mathematically impossible for every short-seller to buy a share, and therefore close their position.

In other words, half the room were going to be left in a burning building with no way out. A panicked dash for the exit began.

— went from 210 at close Friday to a high of 999 on Tuesday —

View attachment 561320

...Our equity salesman friend, who had put on the trade for several of his hedge fund clients reminisced, “it remains the single biggest money losing situation I can remember for funds caught short — and a lot of them were”.
Did the shares remain near $600 after the theatrics were over?
 
I think more than you think are in that situation. Well, maybe I'm wrong because I'm there too. Most of my shares are in my IRA. Though that just means a 10% hit if I take the money early, which will definitely happen. But considering my shares have gone up 500% or so, that 10% won't really be impactful.

I could technically retire now if I wanted to live frugally, but I like my job just fine, it pays well, and I get to work from home in my PJs. I need to at least double up from here so I can justify a roadster.

Those with money in IRAs or other retirement accounts, and don't want wait to age 60 to use the money, or pay penalties on the money, check out SEPP / Rule 72t distributions:
Rule 72(t)

Simplistically - it lets you setup something like an annuity distribution from the 401k / IRA. Doesn't help much for a big purchase, though it could help by making the monthly loan payments.

Great for getting annual living money from those retirement accounts before 60.


Not advice of course - do your own research. The one concrete thing I'd add is I personally won't try doing the paperwork and setting this up on my own. I'll get a financial / wealth advisor involved, with experience on these, to get it setup.
 
Seeking Help from the TSLA Options and Tax planning Veterans

Please assume this year will be record taxable gains like never ever before due to other winning trades [blame AMZN OTM calls], any probably never in the future [since I hope to plan better hereafter]

Many many thanks for your insights/pointers!

I also have significant short term gain this year. So I set up Jun 2021 LEAP 1000-1700 Spread back in May. I am planning to book the loss on the 1700 leg this year and wait for 32 days before selling 1700 leg again to stay out of the wash sale rule. This allows me to book the loss this year and shift the gain recorded this year to the next year onto Long Term Cap Gain (assuming tax law stays the same and TSLA remains up after I book the loss on 1700 leg)
 
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Those with money in IRAs or other retirement accounts, and don't want wait to age 60 to use the money, or pay penalties on the money, check out SEPP / Rule 72t distributions:
Rule 72(t)

Simplistically - it lets you setup something like an annuity distribution from the 401k / IRA. Doesn't help much for a big purchase, though it could help by making the monthly loan payments.

Great for getting annual living money from those retirement accounts before 60.


Not advice of course - do your own research. The one concrete thing I'd add is I personally won't try doing the paperwork and setting this up on my own. I'll get a financial / wealth advisor involved, with experience on these, to get it setup.

Or a Roth conversion ladder

Screenshot_20200705-220151.png
 
After-action Report: Mon, Jul 06, 2020: (Full-Day's Trading)

Headline: "TSLA Hits ATHs in All 4 SP Categories"

Traded: $27,188,304,077.49 ($27.188 B)
Volume: 20,616,338
VWAP: $1,318.77


Closing SP / VWAP: 104.32%
(TSLA closed ABOVE today's Avg SP)
Mkt Cap: TSLA / TM = $254.394B / $175.401B = 145.04%​

'Short' Report:

FINRA Short/Total Volume = 60.2% (54th Percentile rank Shorting)
FINRA Volume / Total NASDAQ Vol = 44.6% (45th Percentile rank FINRA Reporting)
FINRA Short Exempt Volume was 1.08% of Short Volume (50th Percentile rank)​

TSLA - SUMMARY TABLE - 2020-07-06.png


Comment: "TSLA runs up to $1,430 After-hrs"

View all Lodger's After-Action Reports

Cheers!
 
After-action Report: Mon, Jul 06, 2020: (Full-Day's Trading)

Headline: "TSLA Hits ATHs in All 4 SP Categories"

Traded: $27,188,304,077.49 ($27.188 B)
Volume: 20,616,338
VWAP: $1,318.77


Closing SP / VWAP: 104.32%
(TSLA closed ABOVE today's Avg SP)
Mkt Cap: TSLA / TM = $254.394B / $175.401B = 145.04%​

'Short' Report:

FINRA Short/Total Volume = 60.2% (54th Percentile rank Shorting)
FINRA Volume / Total NASDAQ Vol = 44.6% (45th Percentile rank FINRA Reporting)
FINRA Short Exempt Volume was 1.08% of Short Volume (50th Percentile rank)​

View attachment 561369

Comment: "TSLA runs up to $1,430 After-hrs"

View all Lodger's After-Action Reports

Cheers!
Jeez, these charts are scary. Something *not natural* is going on.
 
A few weeks more after Q2 and SP500 inclusion then we can be looking at the battery day.
A few weeks after that we can then look for 3Q delivery and earning
A few weeks after that we could hear some news about Giga Shanghai and MIC Model Y
A few weeks after that .......

Agreed. There are too many catalysts on the horizon to risk sitting out in favor of a better price.
 
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Reactions: Artful Dodger
Help me with my math here, please.

• I've read a few sources that say that there is about $10 Trillion tied up in S&P 500 index funds.
• TSLA looks to be coming in at 1% of the S&P 500; higher if this run continues.
• 1% of $10Trillion is $100 Billion that needs to go to TSLA.
• TSLA's market cap is $254 Billion, so that's a LOT of buying that needs to happen.
EDIT: That's 40% of TSLA to be bought - with so much in Elon's and institutional hands, how does that happen?

Aren't the effects of this going to be ginormous? Wouldn't Standard and Poor's try to do something to avoid those effects?