Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Curt Renz]

Electrek - 18 minutes ago: Tesla is going to use Autopilot side cameras to show blind spots when signaling - Electrek

 

[capster]

My opinion: caution on high optimism of level 5 being achieved soon. My career has been software development, 23 years of paid work so far. I recall the plan to have a coast to coast drive completed in 2017, then full self driving was going to be feature complete by end of 2019. Recently the team decided to do a code rewrite... that doesn't happen when you are nearly done with a project.

I view Tesla's approach as the best one out there, and I do view them as being in the lead. I also think level 5 is still years away. I'd be happy to be proven wrong on that.

Having developed software, I hear where you’re coming from.

Having a PhD from long ago in modeling the brain and behavior with neurophysiologically plausible neural nets, I’d suggest that thinking about it in terms of evolution is more useful. Evolution happens in jumps (Punctuated equilibrium - Wikipedia). We’re looking at a jump here — not (mainly) getting a raft of P1, P2, and P3 tickets off a board.

Having worked at one time essentially as a futurist for 5 years, I think we’re a bit behind and think this particular jump should already have happened. Of course, the temporal resolution in forecasting such momentous jumps is necessarily low.

Also, I’m an optimist. So, I’m optimistic.

 

[Buckminster]

No one should be switching to Mac and Cheese, peanut butter and jelly and cheap booze in their 60's.

Am I the only one thinking this sounds pretty good?...

 

[Mo City]

EV startups feel squeeze from Tesla

Tesla Inc.’s new Shanghai plant has churned out popular Model 3 sedans for the past six months, catapulting the company atop the electric-vehicle sales chart and piling the pressure on cash-strapped local rivals. There was another casualty last week.

Byton is at least the third sizable EV upstart to throw in the towel since Elon Musk started his made-in-China offensive, after Bordrin Motors and Jiangsu Saleen Automotive Technology Co. wound their operations down earlier this year.

They fell victim to plummeting demand amid the trade war and coronavirus pandemic, and as the government scaled back the subsidies that turned China into the world’s biggest EV market with hundreds of producers.

Yet Tesla, in just half a year, grabbed a hefty slice of that shrinking pie -- and its portion keeps getting bigger. The market leader’s sales now approach a quarter of the total tally for EVs, the China Passenger Car Association said Wednesday, as wealthier buyers are drawn to Tesla’s brand cachet. That’s making life difficult for the slew of local contenders and risks exposing the multibillion-dollar Chinese EV push as a bubble.

I remain very bearish on nearly all EV startups, particularly those outside China. Excluding China, Tesla's long term competition will come from legacies who evolve and survive through mergers and partnerships.

 

[samppa]

The basic of LEVEL 5 require completion. That's the point of that level. So you can say basic of level 3 or even level 4. But the basic of level 5 is on or off, black or white. There are no reliability issues because one of the basic parameters of level 5 is reliability.

I remember Elon saying that feature complete means the car has above zero chance of taking you to work without intervention.
So wouldn't that be definition of basic L5?

 

[Nocturnal]

I'm surprised we are stuck in such a narrow range. I guess buyers have decided that anything below here is a value.

Seriously, is there anything more complex than Level 5 autonomy in car traffic? Once you have solved that (vision in 3D space) doesn‘t automowers, autovacuums, drones, fleets of manufacuring robots, trains and aircraft carriers look light childs toy in comparison? What else could this autopilot AI be useful for.... hmmm.

I figure if a car can navigate a road and traffic, then a humanoid robot could navigate a home and care for old people. (or other other uses)

Tesla's 3d mapping implies a Y axis.

ha, true. Ok, then Y Axis > 30 feet or so.

 

[SOULPEDL]

Or trash can.


Once you have L5 FSD on the ground...how much more difficult is it to add a Y axis to that data?

So 2D still... it's Z axis. At first I couldn't figure out what you meant at all, lol.

But a GREAT question bc they are introducing 3D learning now. My guess on Flying FSD is that their methodology would be in place and control automation already exists, they'd mostly just have redo all learning IMHO. But without the many miles experience as with cars, it would need to learn for a long long time. Unless...

If Tesla took the Zoox approach with their NN and slapped cameras on a bunch of existing planes, I think it could get there in 5-10 years (not many planes compared to cars).

Way OT...
I've had a thought for a while. If I were to train a robot to dig a trench, (ya that trench I just did for car charging), could I just slap a few cameras on a bunch of shovels to collect the data performed by humans, and presto... an AI Trench Digger? Like, make the goal to maximize shovel load size to develop strategies of the tool, then goes on to reshape the tool design itself? Can this be done (is it being done) everywhere now? I still haven't really learned Python, but this stuff is getting pretty interesting!

Are we there yet?
Are we there yet?
Are we there yet?

 

[capster]

Thanks for your thoughts. Strictly speaking, I'd still be along with the ride, and in the scenario you describe, I'd still be wealthy far beyond what I'd ever expect to need. The question is whether the regret of losing out on 50% of that potential wealth weighs heavier than security today.

In my philosophy, there's a step change between being financially independent and not. That's a simplification, but it's a simplification I'm confidently operating with. If I was already there from other investments, there would be no question about the decision I'm considering -- I'd definitely not do it, and follow along with your advice. But there's a freedom of mind that comes from being relatively sure that no likely external event can dictate the choices of employment & life I'd have to make, that I think is in a category of its own. I worry about not seizing it when it's there. Losing out on due to bad luck it would be a massive loss that I'd regret greatly.

I haven't actually regretted any of the risk-adjustment stock sales I've made up until now. Yes, I'd be much richer if I hadn't, but they were the right choices at the time, and I would not have been true to myself to do otherwise. So although the dispositions I'm considering here are likely not regret-free, I am fairly sure that I can stand tall and both defend and live well with them in the future.

There are levels up beyond financial security I expect.

It would be nice to be able to afford those life extension treatments, brain implants, and trips to Mars, in addition to being able to give descendants a helping hand, support good causes and handle the inflation and taxes following, say, a global pandemic.

I’ll be holding for a long time and holding out for those goodies yet to come into being.

 

[Singuy]

I remember Elon saying that feature complete means the car has above zero chance of taking you to work without intervention.
So wouldn't that be definition of basic L5?

Heck no. Level 5 is so good that there's no steering wheel. What he said is level 2 to level 3.

 

[jerry33]

EV startups feel squeeze from Tesla

Tesla Inc.’s new Shanghai plant has churned out popular Model 3 sedans for the past six months, catapulting the company atop the electric-vehicle sales chart and piling the pressure on cash-strapped local rivals. There was another casualty last week.

Byton is at least the third sizable EV upstart to throw in the towel since Elon Musk started his made-in-China offensive, after Bordrin Motors and Jiangsu Saleen Automotive Technology Co. wound their operations down earlier this year.

They fell victim to plummeting demand amid the trade war and coronavirus pandemic, and as the government scaled back the subsidies that turned China into the world’s biggest EV market with hundreds of producers.

Yet Tesla, in just half a year, grabbed a hefty slice of that shrinking pie -- and its portion keeps getting bigger. The market leader’s sales now approach a quarter of the total tally for EVs, the China Passenger Car Association said Wednesday, as wealthier buyers are drawn to Tesla’s brand cachet. That’s making life difficult for the slew of local contenders and risks exposing the multibillion-dollar Chinese EV push as a bubble.

Most of those local contenders didn't have viable cars, basically cheap low-range stuff that lived off of the subsidies. I don't see how that confirms any kind of a bubble.

 

[jerry33]

I remain very bearish on nearly all EV startups, particularly those outside China. Excluding China, Tesla's long term competition will come from legacies who evolve and survive through mergers and partnerships.

I doubt it. If the legacy automakers could have done it, they would have by now. They have way too much baggage. Competition will come from the S.E. Asian countries.

 

[Nocturnal]

Heck no. Level 5 is so good that there's no steering wheel. What he said is level 2 to level 3.

He didn't use terms like L5 etc. he said FSD would be feature complete and then clarified that this mean a non-zero chance it could drive you to work without intervention.

 

[dc_h]

Yes, like Minnesota, Colorado, Wisconsin, Maryland, Missouri, Indiana, Tennessee, Massachusetts, Arizona, Washington, Virginia, New Jersey, Michigan, North Carolina, Georgia, Ohio, Illinois, Pennsylvania, New York, Florida, taxes and California.

Actually, you guys have more small states (by population) than I expected!

and some of our small states are huge! Montana is the same size as Norway with fewer people then Oslo metropolis.

 

[Singuy]

He didn't use terms like L5 etc. he said FSD would be feature complete and then clarified that this mean a non-zero chance it could drive you to work without intervention.

Except he did from the quote that was posted earlier. He said all the features of level 5 which I disagree. Level 4 and 5's difference is pretty much yes or no to steering wheel.

 

[dc_h]

The dirty little secret is that aircraft manufacturing currently is a crappy, difficult business with a small total addressable market.

Ripe for reinvention.

 

[MP3Mike]

Except he did from the quote that was posted earlier. He said all the features of level 5 which I disagree. Level 4 and 5's difference is pretty much yes or no to steering wheel.

Actually the difference is that Level 4 is allowed to have a limited ODD. For example, it only works in a suburb of Phoenix. (Say like Waymo.)

ODD=Operational Design Domain

 

[Mo City]

I doubt it. If the legacy automakers could have done it, they would have by now. They have way too much baggage. Competition will come from the S.E. Asian countries.

Saying they won't because "they would have by now" is complete baloney. That worn out, overused phrase should be banned from the English language. Someone could have said the same thing about EVs being viable a year before Tesla was founded.

The urgency now is higher than it was in 2012. Companies and industries procrastinate just like human beings.

Europe (esp Germany) will not allow its auto industry to die, for several reasons. Simple as that. Same for Japan. Same for ROK.

Not sure what your definition of SE Asia is but I seriously doubt any of them will become a major exporter of autos.

 

[Tes La Ferrari]

This is why I and my retirement love this forum. A lot of smart people from different spaces giving really good analysis. I might not understand the details but I can grasp the 30k foot view you guys are saying. I'm not a smart guy but I'm smart enough to listen to people smarter than me.

This. Well said @ninpb.

 

[CorneliusXX]

Tesla v tesla. Hopefully the company won't take everything from BMW.

Ohh I did not see you there.. : WTF

 

[marvinat0rz]

There are levels up beyond financial security I expect.

It would be nice to be able to afford those life extension treatments, brain implants, and trips to Mars, in addition to being able to give descendants a helping hand, support good causes and handle the inflation and taxes following, say, a global pandemic.

I’ll be holding for a long time and holding out for those goodies yet to come into being.

I agree. Freedom to spend you time as you wish is just one of the first rungs on the ladder of (economic) wealth. It's an important rung, although its perceived importance varies a lot between people. After comes expensive toys or hobbies, a fortune size that provides unreasonable power to help others, get favors or shape the world around you, and then stuff yet to be invented. Advanced health technology, trips to Mars and so on.

It isn't certain that you'll need a massive fortune to access some of these things after a certain point, though. If we succeed the right way at creating strong AI, there won't be much for money left to buy. But that's in the distant future, plenty of stuff to think about before then