Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[CyberDutchie]

I found the "level 5 autonomy will take 1 billion lines of code" the saddest part of all... are they going to attempt to hard code level 5 autonomy or something?

Someone send them a link to Andrej Karpathy’s Software 2.0 lecture.

 

[Favguy]

Whilst I'm very much enjoying the show, If we touch $2000 over the next few days, I'm going to have to start crunching numbers and making some plans and decisions that I wasn't expecting to have to think about until the end of next year!

Oh well, first world problems eh...

 

[LJS22]

Tesla getting free advertising everywhere. USA Today has an article up about model Y price cut and soaring stock price. No other car manufacturer makes USA Today when they offer discounts haha

 

[NicoV]

Did anybody notice we reached a new all-time-high in pre-market?

 

[MABMAB]

 

[vikings123]

I agree there's a lot of buzz around TSLA right now, and there are undoubtedly a ton of traders trying to profit off of it.

Thing is that at least ~25M shares will have to be bought at ANY price by index funds if TSLA is indeed included in the S&P 500.

If at some point the shares in the hands of traders, speculators, and longs who want to sell but hope to sell for a higher price, outnumber the amount of shares that have to be bought by S&P 500 index funds, then we'll be entering bubble territory. I don't think we've reached that point yet, but time will tell.

Agreed, whoever did the buying on Friday kicked things off. How many of the existing institutional owners will sell as the stock goes parabolic. I mean I don’t know if it’s fair to call it a bubble, yes there will be pullback at some point but it will be more of a healthy pullback and stabilize in the 2000 range.

People are just realizing the potential impacts of S&P inclusion. We here at TMC are fortunate to have so many great posters and sometimes take it for granted and assume that the market also has the information as we do. The fact is the market is late as always in realizing the true potential of this company and now the S&P fuel is launching the stock into orbit.

I’m pretty sure shorts will try to get in front of this performance freight train and try to slow it down but the economics of supply and demand tell me they have a very low chance of succeeding. I don’t think anybody can really make predictions of the impact of S&P on stock price. Just enjoy the ride if you are long and be smart with your options.

 

[elasalle]

Fremont GA4.5 (a.k.a TentTwo) is ready, after just 11 days of construction:



The implications for Fremont Model Y production in 2020 Q3 are large (like the tent). Further, now that Elon has confirmed there will be no Model Y SR+ and that a LR RWD Model Y is coming in a few months, very large gross margins are locked in.

Cheers!

This explains the price cut. Production increased. Costs decreased.

Simplicity killed the Flufferbot

 

[elasalle]

need ~ 35K to by 1 2850 Jun 22 call

Like last week, I might have to sell 100 shares and buy calls, and buy back shares slowly, and adjust positions once again

 

[Artful Dodger]

This was on my mind too. Having one model below 300 is the same as having 2 or 3. A talking point of all Teslas do at least 300 miles (482? km) shows the clear difference and moves expectations.

The 2012 Model S with 265 miles range is Motor Trend's Best Car of All Time (past 70 yr history of annual 'Best Car' awards). 300 is not a magic number, unless you're a Spartan.

 

[JayNT]

Placed order for Y on July 2.
Received VIN on July 10.
Delivery scheduled for 7/22 in Manhasset, NY.

That went quick.

 

[CyberDutchie]

Did anybody notice we reached a new all-time-high in pre-market?

Premarket volume must be approaching a record too, anyone have the number to beat?

 

[ammulder]

The 2012 Model S with 265 miles range is Motor Trend's Best Car of All Time (past 70 yr history of annual 'Best Car' awards). 300 is not a magic number, unless you're a Spartan.

I would disagree with that last. Most of the competition (save Lucid) seems to be targeting 300 miles if at all possible -- at least for their "long range" trim. I think if Tesla had every model at 305 miles or higher, it would be a huge distinction. A massive "they're aiming for where we used to be" kind of thing. And it would mean the competition's $50K-60K models are offering the range of Tesla's $40K-45K models.

 

[MABMAB]

Retail comess online in a few minutes @ 0800

 

[FrankSG]

Premarket volume must be approaching a record too, anyone have the number to beat?

I believe pre-market volume alone was millions of shares on February 5th. Currently @ ~475k. Highly doubt we will beat February 5th.

 

[elasalle]

My short term Goal.

b/w prices of 2.5K -3K, I plan to take some profits, so that my $ cost Average on Tesla is 0(yes Zilch). I actually need to sell just 100 Shares to reach this goal.

At it's peak, (if all my calls had expired worthless, and PUTS got assigned) - my cost per share was in $760-$800 range.(in range because it was so frustrating, I gave up doing the math )

~ Cheers!!

 

[smorgasbord]

Let’s not fool ourselves. This no longer has anything to do with investors discovering Tesla’s performance as a company. Above 1100 the stock has developed its own dynamic, thanks to frontrunning of the S&P 500 inclusion, extreme call buying (and thus hedging by MM’s), a lot of FOMO and shorts covering. Tesla is strong and has a very bright future, but when everyone around you starts jumping onboard in order not miss the rise, you know something is wrong.

Glad I read through the morning posts before posting myself. This is spot on.

While I still think that $46Billion of Tesla still has to be bought during a 5 day period between S&P announcement and effective date - and that's about 25Million shares of TSLA - it's pretty obvious that I'm not alone in this belief. And so what we're seeing is that a lot of other people are front-running SP inclusion, buying now to sell during those 5 days. The effects of which are unprecedented and therefore hard to predict. I've posted SA articles that looked at the history of S&P inclusion and effects on stock prices (again, mostly up from announcement to actual inclusion, then down on actual day of inclusion as buying stops), but there's never been anything like what we're seeing - not just with Tesla's market cap being so big but with such a large number of short bets.

I had been thinking the 2020 peak would be in late September, but now i think it's coming earlier. @Artful Dodger may be right that rather than trying to postpone inclusion to get a more realistic entry point, the S&P Committee may want to do it quickly to avoid further run-ups after July 23. However, they also have a re-balance set for Sept 18 and I still think there's a possibility they'll want to do both at the same time rather than have two separate valuation up-heavals.


Finally, I think there's a possibility that canceling of SR+ for Model Y may not be such a great thing. I would have hoped that Tesla would use its new battery tech to make that vehicle either very affordable or very profitable. One bright side might be that Model Y LR might get a range boost from the new tech, and I would expect that to be announced on Battery Day if it was going to happen this year.

 

[ByeByeJohnny]

By 5x multipliers, I assume you mean options.

No, I mean certificates that move in value at 5 times the share movement. They don't seem common/exist in the US. Can't even figure out what they are called in English. So stock goes up 1% these goes up 5%. There are others. Should have gone for the 10x.

They even trade against the premarkets which is great and there is no exchange rate fee as when buying/selling stock. They do cost a tiny fee per day. Share price needs to be about +1% a month for the value to hold if you keep them that long. There is no specific expiration date.

What is sometimes terrifying is that the trade in them close two hours before the stockmarket so you can't sell or buy then. Huge negative but it saved my butt when we fell from $900 the first time cause I sold half I had before the drop.

Presumably they go down 5% when the stock goes down 1% but that seems to never happen anymore ...

It would probably be wiser to use regular calls but the math on those is so confusing and i haven't figured that out yet. Also not sure if all calls are even available from here. Seems like only some are.

Thanks to everyone for your responses. As expected not really any revolutionary new ideas. Not that I expected any to exist but the consensus seemed to be hold on if I can stomach it.

Haven't sold yet. Up to about 65k now.

 

[Artful Dodger]

08:00 a.m. Whistle: Mon, 13 Jul 2020

• NASDAQ-100 Futures: +101.50 +0.94% 07:59:44
• TSLA share price: 1,650.00 +105.35 (6.82%)
• NASDAQ Pre-market Volume: 470,088 @ 08:00 ET

Comment: "Pre-market Volume is HUGE! Pre-Market High: $1,653.64 (08:03:46 AM)"

Cheers!

 

[UkNorthampton]

The 2012 Model S with 265 miles range is Motor Trend's Best Car of All Time (past 70 yr history of annual 'Best Car' awards). 300 is not a magic number, unless you're a Spartan.

Speculation, Elon likes to joke around, he may want to push people's buttons, it may be something he wants to say later this month and embed in people's minds - the cheeky little Meme Lord that he is.

 

[elasalle]

Any ideas/news on which stock most likely to get kicked out of S&P ?