Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[cricketman]

Everyone’s decision whether and when to sell any of their TSLA position is uniquely based on personal circumstances.

But it would be helpful to keep in mind a reasonable fair value of TSLA, because it is quite possible for the market to assign an unreasonably high valuation, just as it assigned an unreasonably low valuation not that long ago.

Even for a future trillion plus company, Tesla is so far from justifying that on current earnings, that a steep discount needs to be applied. A quarter of a trillion now seems very rich. Half a trillion seems to me obviously too rich. So I’d say anything over $2000 is unreasonably high.

I’m not predicting how high the SP is going to go now, but I am predicting that if it goes over $2000, it will correct below $2000 as soon as the fever breaks.

Yes I agree although it isn't fashionable to say it on here.

I am a big Tesla bull. But time is also a function of money. I will sell 20% of my stock at $2,000. That will net me about $1m which is life changing for me. It is goes up to $3,000, I will sell another 20%.

That means I can retire if I want (I am 40 years old with a young family) and live in Spain which is a cheap place to live

Whatever happens, I will keep 50% of my Tesla share long term. I will "never" sell those. And if the shareprice drops after I sell any of my shares then I will buy back in again

 

[Artful Dodger]

"The Competition is Coming Caving."

Volkswagen's Top Software Guy Is Dropped | Cleantechnica.com

Tesla's lead in software is decades long. Heavy emphasis on LONG.

Cheers!

 

[MABMAB]

$1613.84 US premarket high per my broker

 

[MABMAB]

Frankfurt high conversion

 

[Steve m]

Everyone’s decision whether and when to sell any of their TSLA position is uniquely based on personal circumstances.

But it would be helpful to keep in mind a reasonable fair value of TSLA, because it is quite possible for the market to assign an unreasonably high valuation, just as it assigned an unreasonably low valuation not that long ago.

Even for a future trillion plus company, Tesla is so far from justifying that on current earnings, that a steep discount needs to be applied. A quarter of a trillion now seems very rich. Half a trillion seems to me obviously too rich. So I’d say anything over $2000 is unreasonably high.

I’m not predicting how high the SP is going to go now, but I am predicting that if it goes over $2000, it will correct below $2000 as soon as the fever breaks.

Wow that was useful input..

So are you holding stock now or not?

 

[j6Lpi429@3j]

Ok, mere words cannot explain how terrified/amused/depressed I am by this volkswagen softwware thing. take this:

Firstly, bragging about lines-of-code is such a backwards metric for software that its almost a meme now. Every single line of code has the potential to be a catastrophic bug. Bragging you have more of them is STUPID. Super-large teams of software developers are also HUGELY inefficient. bragging that the team size is large is a joke. And bragging about how much you pay for a line of code?
Are
You
Serious
That
You
Do
This?
Its pretty clear to anyone with decades of software experience, that every single metric in this image shows that the top management at VW are completely and utterly clueless when it comes to software. I would contend that volkswagen will be bankrupt within maybe 5 years max. possibly 2 years.

You CANNOT run a business based on software unless your chief executive has multiple years programming experience.

Frankly this frightens me. If VW ever claim to have autonomous driving, I'm keeping on hell of a distance betwween me and any VW car.

 

[heltok]

Lots of cars in the parking lot being loaded onto trailers:
Twitter

 

[FrankSG]

Ok, mere words cannot explain how terrified/amused/depressed I am by this volkswagen softwware thing. take this:

View attachment 564095

Firstly, bragging about lines-of-code is such a backwards metric for software that its almost a meme now. Every single line of code has the potential to be a catastrophic bug. Bragging you have more of them is STUPID. Super-large teams of software developers are also HUGELY inefficient. bragging that the team size is large is a joke. And bragging about how much you pay for a line of code?
Are
You
Serious
That
You
Do
This?
Its pretty clear to anyone with decades of software experience, that every single metric in this image shows that the top management at VW are completely and utterly clueless when it comes to software. I would contend that volkswagen will be bankrupt within maybe 5 years max. possibly 2 years.

You CANNOT run a business based on software unless your chief executive has multiple years programming experience.

Frankly this frightens me. If VW ever claim to have autonomous driving, I'm keeping on hell of a distance betwween me and any VW car.

I found the "level 5 autonomy will take 1 billion lines of code" the saddest part of all... are they going to attempt to hard code level 5 autonomy or something?

 

[Sancho]

Wow that was useful input..

So are you holding stock now or not?

I trim my holdings as the SP rises, and increase my holdings as it falls. I would trim more aggressively if it went over $2000.

 

[Christine69420]

Not possible. Even uber-bulls like Ron Barron would immediately sell all his shares as fast as practical somewhere well below $100K. And so would other large holders. I know I would sell before it got there.

Do you have any idea what that would make the market cap?

Add two zeros? And one comma?

Casgains Academy - today:

This is hard to believe. But as a long longshot possibility - if this is true then I do believe in $100k shares.

A 10x improvement in battery capacity would be huge! Not only for our next cars.

Imagine if your phone and laptop lasted 10x on a charge? And hearing aids, pacemakers and everything medical running on batteries? And your kids portable games?

Tesla would license this tech to all battery factories and get a percentage from every battery made. Because who would make for old style batteries if new ones with 10x the capacity became an option?

Disclaimer: I'm no battery techie.

 

[Sancho]

There is no such thing as a reasonable fair value. Everyone and his brother has a different one.

I decided to stick with opinions of those the most in the know - the board that approved Elons performance award.
They saw 650B market cap as something worth targeting for.
Who Am I to object to their views and goals, describing it as unreasonable, unfair, etc?
As long as they do not create a different award with higher/lower market cap that 650B is my anchor number to judge how much room is there left to run in the next 5 years or so.
TSLA is still multiples away from it.

And I fully expect this 650B will be fulfilled much sooner than deadline (2028).

Tesla Announces New Long-Term Performance Award for Elon Musk | Tesla, Inc.

Actually, if you are going to use that board decision as your benchmark, then the SP is already clearly unreasonably high. That decision was based on 650 billion in 10 years (8 more from now). Given all the uncertainty between now and then I think you’d be crazy to assign more than 100 billion now.

I’m thinking an SP of $2000 now because I think the 650 billion future value is way too low.

 

[MC3OZ]

Add two zeros? And one comma?



This is hard to believe. But as a long longshot possibility - if this is true then I do believe in $100k shares.

A 10x improvement in battery capacity would be huge! Not only for our next cars.

Imagine if your phone and laptop lasted 10x on a charge? And hearing aids, pacemakers and everything medical running on batteries? And your kids portable games?

Tesla would license this tech to all battery factories and get a percentage from every battery made. Because who would make for old style batteries if new ones with 10x the capacity became an option?

Disclaimer: I'm no battery techie.

Yes, I'm waiting for a Tesla smart phone, tablet and laptop... with a long lasting battery running a highly secure version of Linux..... that is after home heating and cooling, home hot water, home lighting.

We might be able to run our entire lives with Tesla/SpaceX products...

Current batteries in smart phones are cheap, and designed for a short life..

 

[Steve m]

I trim my holdings as the SP rises, and increase my holdings as it falls. I would trim more aggressively if it went over $2000.

So at what price would you be buying?

 

[Tslynk67]

She's Dansh. Mabbe don't speak English?

Cheers!

Speaks better English than me, mate

You know, we met a bit later in life than many couples, I was 34, she 32. At this age there's far less BS and dancing around delicate topics. So before we got married, I confessed to her all the questionable things I'd done throughout my life, so no skeletons in the closet.

I also set some ground-rules going-forward, one of which was "I'm a guy and I like to look at girls. In fact I'm fantasising about having sex with most of them, most of the time. Doesn't mean I will, but I'm not going to pretend otherwise either."

She was fine with this and I can tell you I'm one of the few guys I know who can say "wow, look at the a$$ on that" while we walk together in the street

 

[Artful Dodger]

Fremont GA4.5 (a.k.a TentTwo) is ready, after just 11 days of construction:



The implications for Fremont Model Y production in 2020 Q3 are large (like the tent). Further, now that Elon has confirmed there will be no Model Y SR+ and that a LR RWD Model Y is coming in a few months, very large gross margins are locked in.

Cheers!

 

[Artful Dodger]

Yes, I'm waiting for a Tesla smart phone, tablet and laptop... with a long lasting battery running a highly secure version of Linux...

Good idea. How about dual Tesla AI v2.0 CPUs with a solar-powered Starlink 5G backplane, running Autobidder v10 (MMOG Edition) on NASDAQ:TSLA...

When that crowd roars, the Earth will SHAKE.

Cheers!

 

[UkNorthampton]

I found the "level 5 autonomy will take 1 billion lines of code" the saddest part of all... are they going to attempt to hard code level 5 autonomy or something?

Pseudocode
If fast blue object detected
select case bird
# oh that's pretty... safe unless....check isn't a cassowary
case plane
# seems unusual... model ok, combat jet or airliner not ok...eject!
case else
# Superman!!!!!
end if


Actually - VW, if you're reading this. Give me a budget, I'll hire the FEW key people, give them the tools, concierge services to be productive and you'll get it* faster than loads of people costing a fortune with a mass of ignorant middle management.

*It being enough to release ID3s into the wild and the means to update over time.

Edit again - Read Mythical Man Month by Fred Brooks, small useful book. Key things

1) You slow down a project by adding more people
2) 9 Pregnant women don't deliver a baby in 1 month
3) Surgical style of coding is great (senior in overview & structure, junior/associate goes off to do a detailed piece of work and returns).

 

[Artful Dodger]

$1613.00 +68.35 +4.42%
*Real-Time - data as of 7/13/2020 5:54:00 AM

$1630.00 +85.35 +5.52%
*Real-Time - data as of 7/13/2020 6:28:00 AM​

 

[CLK350]

Get ready for another day of fireworks .. $1620 now on the Frankfurt exchange 7/13/2020 Monday 6 AM EST - Real Time check https://www.boerse-frankfurt.de/equity/tesla-inc
Approx EU - USD conversion x 1.13

PS. I see ArtFul Dodger beat me to the news, but keeping this one up as the screenshot is for good and the link is correct

 

[FrankSG]

How does a tweet like this end up on my IBKR TSLA news feed?

Instead, they should link to the most liked/informative TMC post every day.