Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[mejojo]

I got up to get a peek at comet Neowise, which I did, and then made a similar "mistake."

Yeah....for the past week+ my body is waking at 3 AM and I can't help checking premarket. I need naps!

 

[Todd Burch]

Placed a GTC sell limit order for 80% of my shares at $4999 a share...just in case craziness happens in the short term.

(Note: I believe longer term TSLA will go higher than $4999...but if we hit it in the next few days I won't be disappointed to take a little off the table short-term .

 

[Unpilot]

Placed a GTC sell limit order for 80% of my shares at $4999 a share...just in case craziness happens in the short term.

(Note: I believe longer term TSLA will go higher than $4999...but if we hit it in the next few days I won't be disappointed to take a little off the table short-term .

Damn Fidelity and their only 1.5X price limit.

 

[Artful Dodger]

If the Kato Rd cells are available in sufficient quantity they could use them to add a extra long range variant of the Model Y with a 450 mile range. But S/X would first add extra long range variants with 550 mile range.

Quite a few problems with that theory:

• new capacity at Kato Rd is likely enough for S/X but no more
  
• new cells aren't a "drop-in": likely 4070 form factor (c.f. sources)
• using new cells would require significant re-engineering
• engineering is the most scarce resource at Tesla
  
• why make a Model Y that competes against the Model X?

It's just not in the road map, flights of fancy aside. Tesla will, in general, build cheaper cars in higher volumes with each new generation that is introduced, while continuing to hone the features of existing products.

2170s from GF1/Nevada are here to stay for 3/Y, and they will improve incrementally as I've discussed previously (ie: chemistry) but the are NOT the Kato Rd. "Roadrunner" batteries that will be demo'd on Bty Day on Sep 22.

Hint: its all about logistics. 54 GWhr/yr of 2170 cells of cells at 250wh/kg is around 216 thousand tons of batteries per year, or 592 tons per day. You don't replace those on a whim, or for general coolness sake. This is big business now.

Cheers!

 

[vikings123]

Guesses on opening price today?

I'm thinking 1644.66 that way it is over $100 over last closing price.

It appears that will be the case. I expect MMs to walk it down at open to suck in more shorts and then I think we fly, would not be surprised to see us have another 8-10% day.

 

[Hock1]

Yeah, that was always an unrealistic hope, one that is unfortunately frequently fanned here in 'wot logistics?' world.

The new bty tech is not, I repeat for the nth time, NOT going to displace 54 GWhr/yr of existing Panasonic 2170 cell productionj at GF1/Nevada.

Maybe in 2 years with the Tri-motor Cybertuck. But certainly nof for the 3/Y in the short to mid term, as many were making baseless speculations about after news of the Kato Rd "Roadrunner" project broke last month.

People constantly overestimate what Tesla can do in the short run, and underestimate what Tesla can do in the long run. It's a thing.

Cheers!

Amara's Law in action!

 

[Big Time]

First you spank, then you bank

 

[redan]

Placed a GTC sell limit order for 80% of my shares at $4999 a share.

So now you're a weak long? /s

 

[mrdoubleb]

Quite a few problems with that theory:

• new capacity at Kato Rd is likely enough for S/X but no more
  
• new cells aren't a "drop-in": likely 4070 form factor (c.f. sources)
• using new cells would require significant re-engineering
• engineering is the most scarce resource at Tesla
  
• why make a Model Y that competes against the Model X?

It's just not in the road map, flights of fancy aside. Tesla will, in general, build cheaper cars in higher volumes with each new generation that is introduced, while continuing to hone the features of existing products.

2170s from GF1/Nevada are here to stay for 3/Y, and they will improve incrementally as I've discussed previously (ie: chemistry) but the are NOT the Kato Rd. "Roadrunner" batteries that will be demo'd on Bty Day on Sep 22.

Hint: its all about logistics. 54 GWhr/yr of 2170 cells of cells at 250wh/kg is around 216 thousand tons of batteries per year, or 592 tons per day. You don't replace those on a whim, or for general coolness sake. This is big business now.

Cheers!

Exactly. I have read they have just secured cobalt supply for the foreseeable future and we know they have renegotiated but continue the Panasonic partnership in Nevada. Roadrunner should go into S/X/Roadster and possibly Semi and/or Cyber. That does not mean 3/Y chemistry won!t improve as well.

Actually I am very excited at a possible S/X refresh - hopefully with some internal/external styling updates and of course the tri-motor. That should take S/X demand back up to production limits instead of the disappointing and declining volumes of today. Those cars should command impressive margins and contribute to solid profits they can reinvest.

 

[Todd Burch]

So now you're a weak long? /s

I wanted to add another 9 but the textbox only had space for 4 digits .

 

[mejojo]

First you spank, then you bank

...and then you spank some more.......

 

[EVMeister]

Fire up the oil spanking machine

FTFY.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Roadrunner should go into S/X/Roadster and possibly Semi and/or Cyber.

Yeah agree on the Plaid variants, but I'm pretty sure that Elon already stated in his Jun 10, 2020 email to Tesla Employees that Semi batteries and powertrain would be built at GF1/Nevada:

Musk memo calls on Tesla to begin 'all out' volume production of Semi | CNBC.com June 10, 2020

• "Production of the battery and powertrain will take place at its Nevada gigafactory, while the majority of work will occur in other states."

For the Tri-Motor Plaid Cybertruck, I expect that Tesla will need a new full-scale production line co-located with the CT factory. But since this is likely ~1.5 yrs away, it makes sense that the engineers will have finished the R&D work with the "Roadrunner" project on Kato Rd and be ready to go to the next step. I expect minimum 600K CTs per year capacity, but in modules so that they can build as many Cybertrucks as required for what is likely to be HUGE demand.

Cheers!

 

[vwman111]

Lol, my annual house taxes are now less than a single share of TSLA. Not selling: Taxes long since paid in cash.

Cheers!

livingi n vancouver, i look forward to that day!!!

 

[TrendTrader007]

How do you decide when a down day will lead to a major correction, or if it’s just a temporary pullback and will recover soon?

Do you watch the price action over a few days before you would get out?

I follow the exponential moving averages And I see how far is stretched from the moving averages and then I look at the overall big picture I pay a lot of attention to time element as decided by Jessi Livermore

 

[StealthP3D]

I’m not predicting how high the SP is going to go now, but I am predicting that if it goes over $2000, it will correct below $2000 as soon as the fever breaks.

And....your prediction record on disruptive, rapidly growing companies that everyone wants in their portfolio is how solid? I assume you have net worth measured in at least 8 digits?

 

[bobinfla]

Just a little higher.

At $1666.67, people with 6000 shares will need to make the column in excel wider.

I think that qualifies as a full day's work.

 

[TrendTrader007]

There are a number of people on this thread that have made considerable amounts of money with Tesla/TSLA and share their thoughts on trading strategy, and pertinent information we come across to share with others/discuss/debate without the vitriol that others seem to put out and bring out in others.

I agree with others who have pointed out that many of us change our investment strategies from time to time but when we do it is best to indicate the information that made us reverse/change investing course. If we don't we come off as having less credibility despite our having been successful (if we define success by who has the biggest gains/bank account). Helping others have this success is why many come here. Sharing what has worked for us in the past and what we plan to do in the future and why we suddenly change that strategy.

Personally, I do not feel the size of one's gains/bank account is the definition of success.

Yes, there are people that come here to spread FUD or just troll and they seem to go away if ignored and if not, we have the 'ignore' feature.

I am happy for you that you have achieved your level of success.

Well I have no reason to flaunt the level of my wealth but when total losers consistently troll me bully me irritate me then I just think it is highly appropriate to put them in their proper place
You guys have a very high threshold of tolerating bullies and trolls on this site but very low threshold of calling our somebody starts telling you about millions of dollars that they made trading tsla

If you’re not here to make money why are you here

There is no reason for me to suffer fools gladly

 

[Krugerrand]

>> How many 6-10% up days will it take to admit TSLA has gotten quite frothy?

You tell us.
Fundamentals: share price is not a measure of a company performance, share price is a measure of public's sentiment of company performance.
Sentiments tend to be hard to change, but when they do change, they tend to change radically.
How high the tide will rise once the dam is broken is anybodies guess and only time will show.
Any preaching on true value, bubble etc has no grounds and only adds gasoline to the fire.

Market turned from adamant blind, stupid pessimist into discovery mode.
I will not try to guess what new grounds it will find, I play dead investor...

That’s it exactly.

We’ve now got a reverse wall of worry going on here. The ‘Oh, noes! I’m making too much money, this can’t be true, I don’t deserve this and neither does Tesla’ wall of worry.

Bloody people. So predictable. Wish their whole lives for security and freedom and a path to an easier life, and then when it shows up they be ‘OMG! I can’t do this!! Must sabotage myself!’

 

[LJS22]

For all you looking at what might happen today we have a couple interesting points on the upside. 1656 is the first pit stop then there’s room to 1710’s. Good luck!