Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[UkNorthampton]

What, the liquid-cooled bty pack? Renault uses an air-cooled pack because they're cheap, and don't care about fast charging. Their city cars are design to recharge slowly overnight. Supercharging them is like putting a jet engine on a Piper Cub. Zoe's won't be part of the EV future, they are low-use case, stop-gap compliance cars.

I put a disagree as where I live there are so many drivers of small Toyota's etc. Typically used once a week for shopping, garden centres etc by retired people.

I doubt they ever do long trips. Much easier to find parking (side of road between 2 cars no front / rear markings on bays).

Model 3 is a big car for UK. Near impossible to park at one friend's house in bay due to turning circle. 17 point turn required.

In France, Zoe's do long distance trips due to fast ac charging. Not ideal but ok. I did one longish trip and so much better than ice but with range anxiety (22kwh version, unfamiliar with area). 50 kWh should be ok.

Zoe is a really nice town car. If you look at uk / Europe sales, most cars are small. With 50 kWh and 200 miles range it's great

 

[Christine69420]

Who woulda thunk it?

Whao! All of 311 shares traded after hours? No wonder the share price rocketed!

 

[pz1975]

Global Top 20 June 2020 sales are online:

"With a helping hand of the Chinese EV market, the Tesla Model 3 reigned supreme in June, more than tripling the sales of the runner-up Renault Zoe, with the French hatchback scoring its first five-digit performance, while the Tesla Model Y won its first monthly podium position, thanks to 7.500 deliveries, allowing Tesla's new baby to join the Top 20, in #14, in the coming months expect the Model Y to jump further positions, possibly reaching the podium by September."

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Seeing Model Y sitting there in 14th place is like seeing the tide way out at the beach before the tsunami comes.

 

[j6Lpi429@3j]

I think people are far too quick to dismiss the Zoe and the Leaf as serious competition. I can accept that the e-tron and i-pace are a bit of a joke, because they are trying to take on the model S and they just cannot compete by any metric, but looking at the model 3...
Here is the UK the model 3 starts at:
£40,490
The Leaf:
£26,845
The Zoe:
£26,495

Now yeah, I get it, the model 3 is WAY BETTER and all the specs show it, but here in the UK, we are not often doing thousand mile road trips, its not that big a place A lot of people want a car just to drive around their home town/city in, and frankly a 0-60 speed that terrifies a BMW driver is not important, nor is a range of 300 miles. Nor is a lot of the high-tech stuff in a tesla.

A friend of mine, a fellow software dev who earns GOOD money, has decided to buy a new ICE vehicle, despite really wanting an EV, because he thinks EVs are too expensive right now. He is right. Maybe the model 3 is considered 'affordable' in certain parts of california, but certainly not in the UK, its very much a premium car.

As an investor, I see lots of profit in tesla being able to crush jaguar, porsche, BMW and Audi in the next few years, but if they really want to do anything about the climate change mission, they need to sell cars to everyone. Frankly the model 3 needs to be comfortably under £30k to become a true mass market car here.

 

[Christine69420]

Jeff Roberts' latest from Giga Texas:

Curious about that digger diving in that small pond. How deep can they go?
And I enjoyed the bonus part of the video too.

Anyone seen any plans of the first buildings? What are they building first?

 

[CorneliusXX]

Global Top 20 June 2020 sales are online:

"With a helping hand of the Chinese EV market, the Tesla Model 3 reigned supreme in June, more than tripling the sales of the runner-up Renault Zoe, with the French hatchback scoring its first five-digit performance, while the Tesla Model Y won its first monthly podium position, thanks to 7.500 deliveries, allowing Tesla's new baby to join the Top 20, in #14, in the coming months expect the Model Y to jump further positions, possibly reaching the podium by September."

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With just under 50k sales Tesla is at a 600k annualised run rate. And Y still ramping at Fremont.

 

[WarpedOne]

With just under 50k sales Tesla is at a 600k annualised run rate. And Y still ramping at Fremont.

Yeah, +500k deliveries look 'safe' (in absence of another global freeze).
180k + 6*50k = 480k

 

[Artful Dodger]

To be fair, Tesla had the same issues back in the day here in Belgium, which has it's neutral wired the same as Norway. To make things worse, in many cases in Belgium there's no neutral at all, meaning the car wouldn't charge at all, even with the BE specific adapter for the old charging cable thingy they used.

This is now resolved with the latest cable they provide, which negotiates all this and presents the car with what it wants, so now one cable, with appropriate travel adapters (which cost €5 in the supermarket) works across whole of Europe.

But this was a real problem at one point - same plug in BE, FR, GE, but no charing unless you had the right adapter...

Not trying to be fair about neutral wires. The OP said Tesla should share its Supercharger network with Renault for charging the Zoe. This is not a good idea.

 

[SPadival]

Gary would make a very good weather forecaster - "It may or may not rain today. Either way, carry an umbrella"

Short term traders - just be a little careful when you are following Gary.

Having said that, I bought some OTM calls for Aug end AKA s&!tcalls

 

[H Mak]

I don’t think Tesla will do an offering , but an offering does not dilute the value of our stock. It will only reduce our ownership percentage, but it increases the total value. After an offering, our stock now has Partial ownership of the billions of dollars added to the balance sheet.

You're happy owning a smaller % of the future growth of Tesla?
You're happy with institutions being offered shares for their tracker funds rather than having to buy them in the market?

I know it's only conjecture, but I wouldn't be.

 

[jerry33]

What are the possible implications for Rivian? Is there a substantial monetary gain to Tesla?

In a way there is. If you don't actively protect your IP, it's harder to protect it later because there is a precedent where you didn't protect it.

 

[jerry33]

CCS has 2,376 stations with 5,106 individual plugs in the USA.

At about 2:1 ratio of plugs per location, better not travel on the holidays.

 

[mongo]

Tl;dr; the bands cannot converge if the mid band has a slope.
Edit: to hit 1540 by close Tuesday would require 3 days that average $1,732.66 .

Some technicals converging around ~1540 by Tuesday:

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S&P announcement sure to affect this convergence if the Committee announces TSLA inclusion by then.

Cheers!

Spoiler: long version

The typical Bollinger bands are the 20 day moving avergage +/- 2 standard deviations over that period.
For the discrete case, the standard deviation is defined as the square root of (the sum of the square of the difference between each data point and the average) divided by the number of data points.
Or

Standard deviation - Wikipedia

If all three bands converge, then the standard deviation is 0. If the standard deviation is zero, then the variance of each of the 20 data points from the average is zero. If the delta of each data point from the average is zero, then the data points and the average are equal. If the last 20 data points equal the average, then the slope of the average at that final point is 0.

Put another way, if the average (mid BB) has a slope, the standard deviation cannot be zero, thus the values +2SD and -2SD from the average do not intersect the average.

In this case, 17 of the data points are known and the SD will not be zero. Further, a linear extrapolation of the average and SD is not a correct approximation.

Edit: the average of the previous 17 closing prices (leaving off today, Monday, and Tuesday) is $1,506.
To reach 1,540 by close Tuesday would require three days that average $1,732.66.

 

[bhtooefr]

Note that this is because you are driving a Zoe, it can almost not charge anywhere due to incompatibility with the electric network we have in Norway. Other non-Tesla’s don’t have this problem

We use the “IT” standard to wire the neutral, while the rest of Europe use TN

I've heard several accounts like that. Seems really odd that it will charge some places and not others. Do you know why?

IT == no ground, just neutral. I could see that really confusing some cars.

Spoiler: OT accident vs. crash

We use those words interchangeably in the US. They both mean the same to us.

Spoiler: OT accident crash

Some years ago medicine parlance changed from MVA to MVC to avoid the implication that somebody was at fault and caused an Accident and to help focus attention on the mechanism of the Crash and its implication for injury. The crash is one part of an accident. Lawyers may make a similar distinction but I suppose they would focus on other aspects of the Accident.

Conversely, advocates for vulnerable road users (people walking and cycling, and the like) advocate for using "crash" or "collision" or something along those lines, instead of "accident", because "accident" deflects blame altogether - "oh, it was just an accident" when someone driving a car kills someone on a bicycle. "Crash" and "collision" don't assign blame, but they also don't deflect it.

Also, re: the panel gap discussion... one thing affecting things is $TSLAQ jumping into the mentions of propsective and new Tesla buyers on Twitter to warn them about quality issues. So, that's another thing that can cause new Tesla buyers to go over their cars with a fine-toothed comb where they wouldn't for any other car.

 

[Thekiwi]

So SP 22,000 by 2024 is their best best best. 14.66x current SP within 4 years. I actually think that’s entirely possible. Thanks for posting!

lol. $22,000 stock price in 4 years. That would be a market cap of $4.5 trillion.

 

[EdKan]

I know that pre-market volume is low, but still an impressive rise. We'll see if it means anything!

 

[EVMeister]

lol. $22,000 stock price in 4 years. That would be a market cap of $4.5 trillion.

Pretty big, huh?

 

[Thekiwi]

Pretty big, huh?

bigger than Microsoft, Amazon, Google & Apple combined? Perhaps just a tad optimistic In 4 years.

 

[bhtooefr]

lol. $22,000 stock price in 4 years. That would be a market cap of $4.5 trillion.

I mean, let's add things up.

From the top 25 automakers by market cap, subtracting Ferrari (niche), Chinese (protectionist, although possible that Tesla could eat them too), and Indian (protectionist), I'm getting $832.34B from Tesla monopolizing the auto industry.

Then there's another $1.231T from eating the top ten oil companies.

I'm not sure how much of the electric utilities Tesla would eat, but that could be quite a lot, too.

If automation works, let's toss in another $61.59B from Tesla eating Uber and Lyft.

...of course, I also don't see Tesla eating that much in 4 years, though...

 

[WarpedOne]

>> Perhaps just a tad optimistic In 4 years.

If you take market for rational system which it is not.
Assigning 5x too high a value is exactly the same "error" as assigning 5x too low of a value. 1500/5 = 300.
How long ago TSLA was at 300? And 200?
Exactly.
And I am not saying current SP is correct or rational, it just is what it is.
Fundamentals doing what they do I have less trouble accepting 7,500 in 3 years than 300.