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This sustained price action after brief consolidation periods has all the markings of MMs trying to get neutral on their naked short positions. I expect us to close around 1550 today. There is just a lot of demand and not enough supply. I think the shorts or day traders know not get in front of this train now.

TSLA chart was already showing signs of bullishness prior to the announcement. We will see 1300 in the future again but not on the way down!
 
This is objectively and factually wrong.

A split doesn't even require a journal entry in the companies books.

A stock dividend does

For most folks outside Teslas account department there's no practical difference, but legally and financially there is one- and there is one as relates to short sellers having an obligation to the lender they borrowed shares from to provide the dividend to them.


A couple of links previously posted by others that point out these are legally and financially different things:

Stock Dividend vs Stock Split | Top 6 Best Differences (with Infographics)

Stock Splits And Stock Dividends - principlesofaccounting.com

If this really is and can be treated as a dividend, I would expect that stock opens the day after ex-day at 1/5 of the price. I mean, everyone that buys afterwards will not get the dividend, that's why you see dividends paying stock drop in price (miniscule) the day after ex-day. Now this means nothing when dividend payout is 1% of the stock value or below, but in this case, Tesla will pay out 80% of the stock value in the form os stock dividend.

Implications of this are that 4/5 of the Tesla float (counted by $ value, not number of shares), disappears between Aug 21st and Aug 31st, right? Share counts stays the same, but during that period it represents only 1/5 of the market cap of Tesla, and 4/5 of market cap are locked in Tesla's vault to be payed out after the Aug 28th to the record holders as of ex-day/record day. NO ONE has access to 4/5 of TSLA market cap for the purpose of trading, during this period.

Further implication is that because market cap becomes smaller, SP is easier to manipulate. We're back to $200-$300 and shorts can easier play their games again (for few days). However, cumulative interest built in TSLA is much higher now, and shorts will need to prepare for Aug 31st, so if they try to procure shares during this period, it's a lot more likely to create mad dash in prices upwards during this period. It could be real short squeeze. Imagine, 4/5 of the float disappears, and even if you wanted, you could sell only 1/5 of the value of your Tesla stock. Yes, during that week or so, that applies to us too. There is no-one that can provide enough shares for what market is used to.

Is this what Elon planned 2 years ago, when he talked about short burn?!? This fits SO WELL! I imagine because of all the problems at the time and twitter crisis, he had to give up on the event, as he was in the hot water already.
Now, 2 years later, this looks innocent enough...
 
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If this really is and can be treated as a dividend, I would expect that stock opens the day after ex-day at 1/5 of the price. I mean, everyone that buys afterwards will not get the dividend, that's why you see dividends paying stock drop in price (miniscule) the day after ex-day. Now this means nothing when dividend payout is 1% of the stock value or below, but in this case, Tesla will pay out 80% of the stock value in the form os stock dividend.

Implications of this are that 4/5 of the Tesla float (counted by $ value, not number of shares), disappears between Aug 21st and Aug 31st, right? Share counts stays the same, but during that period it represents only 1/5 of the market cap of Tesla, and 4/5 of market cap are locked in Tesla's vault to be payed out after the Aug 28th to the record holders as of ex-day/record day. NO ONE has access to 4/5 of TSLA market cap for the purpose of trading, during this period.

Further implication is that because market cap becomes smaller, SP is easier to manipulate. We're back to $200-$300 and shorts can easier play their games again (for few days). However, cumulative interest built in TSLA is much higher now, and shorts will need to prepare for Aug 31st, so if they try to procure shares during this period, it's a lot more likely to create mad dash in prices upwards during this period. It could be real short squeeze. Imagine, 4/5 of the float disappears, and even if you wanted, you could sell only 1/5 of the value of your Tesla stock. Yes, during that week or so, that applies to us too. There is no-one that can provide enough shares for what market is used to.

Is this what Elon planned 2 years ago, when he talked about short burn?!? This fits SO WELL! I imagine because of all the problems at the time and twitter crisis, he had to give up on the event, as he was in the hot water.
Now, 2 years later, this looks innocent enough...
Hopefully it'll be closer to $400 than $200-$300 on the ex date.
 
German situation:

My bank (CortalConsors) ist not yet sure how the stock dividend will be treated.Let's see if they come back to me.

The Landesamt für Steuern (IRS) suggests, it has to be taxed as dividend income.
This would be a catastrophe because the loss in stock value cannot be used to offset the dividend gains.

Unless the taxpayer can prove, that it was a stock split. This has to be proven according to the foreign law.

In 2014 Google had a similar situation and only after months, if not years of fighting, the IRS finally gave in. But the banks had deducted the 25 % tax; in the end the taxpayers got their money back - after years of waiting. So good luck with that.


My 'solution':

Prior to the 21st I will sell all my TSLA and sell way OTM Sept Puts. I am looking at $ 3,000 strikes. Then I can just wait to be putted or change back to shares after 24th.

Unfortunately the appreciation of my shares will be taxed. The rebought shares will have a new tax basis.

How can you be taxed a dividend if the dividend you receive is nearly nothing or at least almost 0? That would be against German tax law. If there is no gain you won't have anything to tax against.

They can tax you on the €0 dividend you receive which is still a €0 and that's likely what the Landesamt for Steuen was trying to tell you.

I don't recall the Google situation you refer to but if that case was fighted through at that time it means that now the legal basis is what they agreed on after and not the previous one.
 
I think some of you can get an island, but the rest of us should look into some Silent Yachts. And come visit you guys with the islands! ;)
Already have my order in! :)

Had to drive 5 hours to get to see one in person, now I have to wait about a year for them to build it. This is amazingly similar to buying my first Model S.
 
This sustained price action after brief consolidation periods has all the markings of MMs trying to get neutral on their naked short positions. I expect us to close around 1550 today. There is just a lot of demand and not enough supply. I think the shorts or day traders know not get in front of this train now.

TSLA chart was already showing signs of bullishness prior to the announcement. We will see 1300 in the future again but not on the way down!
Was thinking the same, except I'd explain it as being caught with the wrong delta hedging, not necessarily shorting (it's kinda the same :).
I expect MM's will continue with this tactic trough the end of the week to get their delta hedging in balance and minimize pain on the weeklies, but they can do only so much.

Further, IF dividend theory is right, and my analysis of after-effect (see my previous message), we're in for a serious treat...
 
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In HODL mode, this split adds nothing of long value to me.
That's actually not true. Every time the SP changes the value of your stock will be changed by the change amount times your number of shares. You'll have five times the shares, so five times the amount of change.
 
In addition to people not being able to buy fractional shares through their brokerage, I think a lot of people just don't want to.

Owning a partial share in something just seems kinda lame. I think there will be a lot more demand for a small number of shares at $300 or so, than a partial share at $1,500. Especially in this stock that is already so popular with retail investors.
 
German situation:

My bank (CortalConsors) ist not yet sure how the stock dividend will be treated.Let's see if they come back to me.

The Landesamt für Steuern (IRS) suggests, it has to be taxed as dividend income.
This would be a catastrophe because the loss in stock value cannot be used to offset the dividend gains.

Unless the taxpayer can prove, that it was a stock split. This has to be proven according to the foreign law.

In 2014 Google had a similar situation and only after months, if not years of fighting, the IRS finally gave in. But the banks had deducted the 25 % tax; in the end the taxpayers got their money back - after years of waiting. So good luck with that.


My 'solution':

Prior to the 21st I will sell all my TSLA and sell way OTM Sept Puts. I am looking at $ 3,000 strikes. Then I can just wait to be putted or change back to shares after 24th.

Unfortunately the appreciation of my shares will be taxed. The rebought shares will have a new tax basis.

Yes, dividends have to be taxed as dividends.

So how much tax will you owe on a dividend of $0? ;)

Or alternatively, on a dividend of the cash value of each share ($0.001). ;)
 
Yeah, RobinHood and Schwab and whoever else already allow fractional share purchases so the timing has no material impact on RobinHood. But there are cases where they are not (some retirement accounts, for example).

The retirement account makes a good point- I've got an odd number of shares in an IRA account, and I can't legally add enough cash to make it the odd shares into an even 100, so no selling way OTM covered calls for small profits for me there.... with the split I'll be able to sell several of em without putting any extra cash in :)
 
If this really is and can be treated as a dividend, I would expect that stock opens the day after ex-day at 1/5 of the price. I mean, everyone that buys afterwards will not get the dividend, that's why you see dividends paying stock drop in price (miniscule) the day after ex-day. Now this means nothing when dividend payout is 1% of the stock value or below, but in this case, Tesla will pay out 80% of the stock value in the form os stock dividend.

Implications of this are that 4/5 of the Tesla float (counted by $ value, not number of shares), disappears between Aug 21st and Aug 31st, right? Share counts stays the same, but during that period it represents only 1/5 of the market cap of Tesla, and 4/5 of market cap are locked in Tesla's vault to be payed out after the Aug 28th to the record holders as of ex-day/record day. NO ONE has access to 4/5 of TSLA market cap for the purpose of trading, during this period.

This was all covered in an earlier post:

OMG HERE, example from Eastman, already posted upthread, that explains exactly how this all goes down. TL;DR it's a stock split (like Tesla says in the title of the announcement) and TSLA will trade at the new price on August 31st. Any of the "weirdness", including shorting, that has been discussed over the last 30 pages will be handled behind the scenes and is really nothing for anyone here to need to worry about.

What is the effective date of the split?
There are several key dates:

The Record Date – September 15, 2011. Stockholders “of record” (that is, whose shares are registered in their names) of common stock at the close of business on the “record date” are entitled to receive one additional share in the stock split for each share held of record on the stock split record date.

The When-Issued Trading Date – September 16, 2011. From the record date to the distribution date, two separate markets will likely exist for Eastman common stock on the New York Stock Exchange (the “NYSE”). The “regular way” market, reported under the Company’s normal “EMN” symbol, will continue to trade at the higher pre-split price. Since sellers in the “regular way” market will receive full value for the shares they sell and are not entitled to the split shares they will receive by virtue of being holders on the record date, they transfer their rights to the split shares to their buyers by means of “due bills”. The NYSE recognizes that stockholders might alternatively want to sell only the “new” split shares while retaining the “old” shares, and this is accomplished by creating a “when-issued” market at the post-split price. When-issued trading is reported under the company’s normal NYSE symbol with a “WI” appended at the end (that is, “EMNWI”). When-issued trading ceases on the stock split distribution date. It is expected that the NYSE will authorize a when-issued market for the new split shares under the “EMNWI” symbol. This will occur only between the September 15 record date and the October 3 distribution date. Trading in the when-issued market will reflect the anticipated split value of Eastman shares. Eastman has no involvement in when-issued trading. Check with your broker if you are interested in when-issued trading.

The Distribution Date – October 3, 2011. This is the date when the new stock split dividend shares are distributed and American Stock Transfer & Trust Company, our stock transfer agent and registrar, mails written notice to stockholders indicating their split-adjusted share amounts and makes book entry adjustments to the accounts of record holders.

The Ex-Stock Split Date – October 4, 2011. The date Eastman common stock will begin trading on the New York Stock Exchange at the new split-adjusted price.


RECORD DATE FOR TESLA: AUG 21
WHEN ISSUED TRADING DATE FOR TESLA: AUG 22
DISTRIBUTION DATE FOR TESLA: AUG 28
EX STOCK SPLIT DATE FOR TESLA: AUG 31

As for shorting:
Before: There are 186M shares outstanding. 12M shares sold short, so 198M shares people think they own.
After: There are 930M shares outstanding, 60M shares sold short, so 990M shares people think they own.
Before: ~$17B of shares sold short.
After: ~$17B of shares sold short.
If a short wants to cover their position, they have to buy 5x as many shares as before but they will be 5x cheaper. No change.

All you need to know is that on August 31st, the share count or contract count will 5x for everyone with any position (long, short, derivative) and the price will 1/5th. Let's move on.

So after the Ex date we may see a TSLAWI ticker for the split shares until 8/31 when things get fully processed. (I don't know if NASDAQ does things the same as NYSE.)
 
So have been buying weekly options.

Dumped 1500 strikes at 3.75 yesterday in the early afternoon as it was obvious to me they would expire worthless.

Today they are 35.

Just complaining.

Thanks!

Same here, sold two $1600 calls I had, just to hang on to some play money for calls or next week to try to catch s&p..

secured 2k, lost out on an aditional 10k..I think.. havemt dared to check. :) bummer.

But this is still a tiny jump compared to my expectations for s&p500 inclusion. soo.. would have sucked even more if calls expired worthless tomorrow, and s&p500 wqs anounced friday after close.

I will load up on calls for next week on friday with my eemaining 2k. :)
 
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Implications of this are that 4/5 of the Tesla float (counted by $ value, not number of shares), disappears between Aug 21st and Aug 31st, right? Share counts stays the same, but during that period it represents only 1/5 of the market cap of Tesla, and 4/5 of market cap are locked in Tesla's vault to be payed out after the Aug 28th to the record holders as of ex-day/record day. NO ONE has access to 4/5 of TSLA market cap for the purpose of trading, during this period.

Although in one sense you are correct, this is not going to be the actual situation. As a shareholder I would be very angry if my $1500 in value was not available to me between the two dates because I had to wait for the dividend shares to be issued. I am confident that my broker has some sort of trick that keeps my whole $1500 continuously available. Something like "broker-backed promissory shares" will be added to my account on the first date.
 
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