Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[woodisgood]

Uh, HELLO! You're supposed to show her them and say, 'see, everyone else has two'.

That’s the expected play. I’m going 4D.

 

[scaesare]

E-ray? FFS.

It's a follow on to the classic Corvette Stingray, right?

While I'm not a big fan of overtly calling things out in model names (like the iEverything when the internet became popular), it will probably drum up some nostalgia…. it's not the worst name I've heard.

 

[ByeByeJohnny]

You know what they say about the size of a man’s monitor.

That the share price can go up higher on a bigger monitor?

That's why you should watch the stockchart on at least a 65 incher. Price can go twice as high as on a 32 inch screen.

 

[TNEVol]

Thats nothing K&E slide rule

 

[StealthP3D]

Now that sentiment on this board has subsided to a sort of begrudging acceptance that share price will slow-bleed until Battery day, I bet you we blast off this week

That was a good call considering you made it on Monday!

 

[SpaceCash]

That was a good call considering you made it on Monday!

it's already the basis of my $100K net worth gain since then.

This is easy

relax all

 

[ggr]

OT but I highly recommend Bosch dishwashers. Not an advise.

Yeah! Unlike their auto parts, Bosch dishwashers are the best! We bought our first in 1994, and have bought 3 (for different places) since then.

Edit: since already OT, an anecdote! (It's great being an ex-mod, I can break all the rules I used to enforce!)

University Motorcycle club, in Australia, circa 1980. Two members come to the pub... I mean meeting, with a story.

Pete: We were just driving along...
Mal: minding our own business, weaving through the traffic on Concord Road...
Pete: When we got pulled over...
Cop (to Pete): You changed lanes without a blinker!
Pete: Sorry Constable, Ducati, Bosch electronics, I thought it was working, I'll get it looked at tomorrow...
Cop: OK, make sure you do. (goes over to Mal)
Cop (to Mal): You changed lanes without a blinker! I bet yours doesn't work either.
Mal: It's a f***ing BMW, of course it works!

Not verbatim, but true!

 

[StealthP3D]

Especially given all his...less polite replies and flood of disagrees... to those who originally pointed out it was a possibility before he came around to realize they might be right

@SpaceCash did not make a 180 degree turn on this topic. I just wasted 10 minutes checking all his posts since the split announcement and he was very consistent that this would be bullish for the shares in general and it could cause a world of hurt for those who are nakedly short (synthetic shares). And his replies were full of conviction but not rude or troubling. So I don't think your characterization is accurate or fair.

 

[UnknownSoldier]

Guys, I read on the day the split was announced that the reason for the wording "as a stock dividend" is simply because Tesla is a Delaware registered company (one of many in America like this) and that is the legal wording when you are registered there.

I'm still somewhat baffled we've made a meme out of this regarding shorts having to magically conjure up 4 shares. I mean, that's not how it works. Plenty of companies have had stock splits with a non-zero number of short sellers and none of caused a short squeeze just because of it. Just let this meme die, guys. There's plenty of reasons why TSLA may still squeeze the shorts but the fundamental routine mechanics of a stock split isn't one.

 

[scaesare]

Wait, you guys don't all monitor the forum on 133" screens?

 

[woodisgood]

@SpaceCash did not make a 180 degree turn on this topic. I just wasted 10 minutes checking all his posts since the split announcement and he was very consistent that this would be bullish for the shares in general and it could cause a world of hurt for those who are nakedly short (synthetic shares). And his replies were full of conviction but not rude or troubling. So I don't think your characterization is accurate or fair.

The misunderstanding was based on some people (including myself) thinking that “world of hurt” for naked shorters was dependent on the mechanism of split (eg dividend vs regular), since one type has a lot more backend accounting than the other.

My apologies to @SpaceCash for characterizing it as a 180.

 

[FrankSG]

Well I mean if you just buy puts and calls the most you can lose is 100%. That's not really bad in the grand scheme of things.

It's losing 500% when you sell a naked call on TSLA that will murder your portfolio. I was watching people on r/wallstreetbets selling calls during the run from 300 to 900 earlier this year and wondering what the hell they were doing. I don't care how amazing the premium looks, you don't sell calls when a stock is on a trajectory to escape Earth orbit!

Not just WSB, also on this forum. Check out this post from last December

So, I sold May 2020 285 puts x20 and sold May 2020 400 calls x20. I chose those levels because it kept me even between my calls and puts at $20 a piece. All together, that nets me 80k for a 6 month wait. Alternatively, I roll them. In 2 months, those $20/option should be worth around $11-12, netting me around 16k-ish/month income, and I can continuously readjust the strike price every few months as the SP moves. What's also nice is that, if I find myself in profit and it's time to roll them, I can target a higher dollar amount, so the 16k/month would turn into 17k, then 18k, and so forth, as time goes on. By my calculations, this is around a 3.8% return per month at a low/moderate amount of risk, which I guess I'm ok with.

If the SP does hit 285 again, I'll just sit on my TSLA stock and wait for it to bounce back. If it looks like it's going to break 400, I'll have enough in margin to hold on to it and see what happens from there.

Color me surprised when I did some research and found that I'm not the first person to realize this strategy. They apparently call it a short straddle and it's not recommended for stocks with a lot of volatility. Well, oh well. I've had a lot of crazy get-rich schemes, but this feels a lot better then my 'sell every morning and buy back at 1 dollar under every single day' strategy that didn't last long. Hopefully this one will last a bit longer.

I warned him too, but I think he held on to the position and lost a lot

I'd strongly suggest rethinking selling call options on Tesla at this point in time.

You might want to read the last 1-2 pages in near-term quarterly financials thread, because with Tesla ramping up both Giga 3 and Model Y next year, and Giga 4 in 2021, they are on the cusp of doubling, maybe even tripling their revenue in the next 1-2 years.

Combine this with the fact that Tesla has shown massive improvements in operating efficiency in the past 2 quarters (much reduced OPEX), and I think the chance of a LARGE ($600+, likely higher) breakout in the next year or 2 is highly likely.

After Q4 ER he posted this:

Well, this marks 300 dollars since I sold all 59 of my Jan21s calls and started a short straddle. I don't even know what to say or do or think at this point. Not only did I leave over 1 million dollars on the table because I ended up being weak long after all, but I actually lost a ton of money trying to short straddle it. Worst part of this is that I love this company and I want to hop back in and go long again, but I don't know if the parabolic movement will hold.

 

[StealthP3D]

It's a follow on to the classic Corvette Stingray, right?

While I'm not a big fan of overtly calling things out in model names (like the iEverything when the internet became popular), it will probably drum up some nostalgia…. it's not the worst name I've heard.

"e-ray" sounds like Pig Latin for "ree". I think a "ree" is a fenced enclosure for farm animals.

 

[scaesare]

"e-ray" sounds like Pig Latin for "ree". I think a "ree" is a fenced enclosure for farm animals.

lol... yeah, that's not ideal.

I think Detroit (and everybody else) needs to get rid of the idea that an electric vehicle needs to have gimmicky names, badging, colors, or styling just because it's electric.

After all, do they market the Chevy Gas-O-Matic?

 

[BornToFly]

View attachment 575838

I'm sure the Ford Mach-E, Tesla Killer, will be much better.... /s

 

[M|S|M MYP]

Well, 100kWh is 100kWh... so it's the same amount of energy.

Yeah, the advance might reduce the pack weight some, but if you are precluding some advances in driveline efficiency, it doesn't really change much if you still have the same amount of total energy to work with.

Thanks for taking the time to explain that, instead of taking the easy way out and hitting the disagree icon

 

[Artful Dodger]

After-action Report: Thu, Aug 13, 2020: (Full-Day's Trading)

Headline: "TSLA Zooms to Upper-BB; Mkt Cap $302B"

Traded: $33,098,128,447.53 ($33.10 B)
Volume: 20,426,996
VWAP: $1,620.31

Closing SP / VWAP: 100.06%
(TSLA closed ABOVE today's Avg SP)
Mkt Cap: TSLA / TM = $302.093B / $189.001B = 159.84%​

TSLA 1-mth Moving Avg Market Cap: $279.57
TSLA 6-mth Moving Avg Market Cap: $171.77
Nota Bene: Elon's CEO comp. plan 2nd tranche vested July 24, 2020

'Short' Report:

FINRA Volume / Total NASDAQ Vol = 51.9% (52nd Percentile rank FINRA Reporting)
FINRA Short/Total Volume = 44.8% (46th Percentile rank Shorting)
FINRA Short Exempt Volume was 1.66% of Short Volume (55th Percentile Rank)​

Comment: "Capping by call writers at 1650 Strike Price on heavy volume day"

View all Lodger's After-Action Reports

Cheers!

 

[StealthP3D]

I'm still somewhat baffled we've made a meme out of this regarding shorts having to magically conjure up 4 shares. I mean, that's not how it works. Plenty of companies have had stock splits with a non-zero number of short sellers and none of caused a short squeeze just because of it. Just let this meme die, guys. There's plenty of reasons why TSLA may still squeeze the shorts but the fundamental routine mechanics of a stock split isn't one.

I agree, this is just a stock split. But I do think the very mechanics of going through this might be disruptive to those who may be abusing naked shorting due to lack of oversight from the SEC. If they have been putting constant downward pressure on the share price by repeatedly shorting the stock without borrowing real shares (kind of like floating checks in a circle using three or four checking accounts) then there may be something about a split that disrupts their ability to continue the charade through the split process. I don't know enough about the behind the scenes mechanics of naked shorting or managing a split to understand exactly how this might work but the reason it might not be a thing with splits of other stocks is because they don't have the same level of illegal naked shorting happening behind the scenes.

Maybe @Artful Dodger can comment on this. It does seem like constant downward pressure could be applied to the share price with some type of circular shorting scheme that flooded the market with synthetic shares at key market moments. While there is a time limit on how long these synthetic shares can exist, maybe a circular scheme of some sort is used to continuously have large numbers of synthetic shares in circulation. Perhaps the mechanics of the split could temporarily halt their ability to keep these synthetic shares circulating (and this would of course create buying pressure and probably big losses for those running the scheme).

 

[Tim S]

Not just WSB, also on this forum. Check out this post from last December



I warned him too, but I think he held on to the position and lost a lot



After Q1 ER he posted this:

That last post was in January, after Q4 ER.

 

[RobStark]

Dishwasher O.T.

The three most premium Benchmark Series Bosch dishwasher models sold in the USA are Made in Germany. Those get rebadged as Gaggenau and Thermador dishwashers as well. These are pretty good.

The made in North Carolina Bosch dishwashers are ok but not any better than Samsung or Whirlpool.

If you want the best go with Miele. Any of them are fantastic. Some just have more features.