Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Tslynk67]

For me the risk is too high to outperform the stock just 20%. I reather take 20% of my portfolio and go in with higher risk and higher rewards. I don't do weekslies but I buy like 15% out of the money 4 months calls.

I've weeklies, monthlies, LEAPS and shares - a diversified portfolio as they say!

 

[Cape Coddess]

EV Sales: China July 2020

I was thinking about BYD the other day and wondering how they were doing. This reminds me to look into it. Thanks.

Does anyone think there's a chance TSLA will get back down to $1375 this week so I can fill my buy order?

 

[Favguy]

I was thinking about BYD the other day and wondering how they were doing. This reminds me to look into it. Thanks.

Does anyone think there's a chance TSLA will get back down to $1375 this week so I can fill my buy order?

If you leave it at $1375, it should fill just fine after next Monday

 

[dgodfrey]

Unfortunately, the tax treatment rules for Options and spreads are quite complex and make this impossible. There was another thread here discussing similar issue. We concluded that there was no legal way to do this.

How to defer tax by reducing short term capital gain using call spread.

The bottomline is that any gain from selling a call (covered call or as part of a spread) is always considered short term gain.

What Are The Tax Implications of Covered Calls? - Fidelity

Tax Treatment For Call & Put Options

Buying LEAPS and selling for profit is different - if you hold for >12 months, the gain is long term.

If you figure out something different, I would be very interested. I am looking at some LEAPS in my taxable account purchased in February that have a huge gain of over 900%. I would like to sell if there is a big run up of SP over the next few weeks - but won't do so because of short term gain tax liability.

You're right. I reread @dakh 's post and didn't read carefully enough the first time.

Help me to understand this. My interpretation of the Fidelity link's analysis would seem to take into consideration the long and short term holdings of the exercised shares.

"If a covered call is assigned, the strike price plus the premium received becomes the sale price of the stock in determining gain or loss. The resulting gain or loss depends upon the holding period and the basis of the underlying stock. If the stock delivered has a holding period greater than one year, the gain or loss would be long term."

If a covered call is exercised and it's a mix of long and short term holdings, it would also seem to be a mix of tax liabilities accordingly.

 

[chrsk]

New max pain at 1950$ for Friday. Perhaps we can hope for that being some sort of an bottom.

 

[heltok]

A bit OT, but this might be relevant for Tesla Indian expansion:
Bloomberg: Apple to Open India Online Store Next Month
Sales of Apple products have long been limited to third-party resellers in India, because of restrictions on foreign companies that require them to source 30 percent of production locally.

In August 2019, India eased these rules keeping Apple from offering its products in first-party stores and an online Apple Store. Apple had originally intended to start online sales within months of the rule change, but the global health crisis reportedly scuppered those plans.

TechCrunch first reported in January that Apple would open an online Apple Store in India to start official direct sales of iPhones, iPads, Macs, and more in the country starting in the third quarter of 2020.

With the rules changed, Apple is also set to begin opening up retail stores in India in the future and already has retail locations in the works. A new store in Mumbai is in development and is set to open next year. Meanwhile, Bloomberg says that Apple has already scouted a location for its second India store, located in Bangalore near Minsk Square.

Even prior to the rule change, Apple was working with the Indian government to get permission to open up stores in India. Over the course of the last few years, Apple started manufacturing some lower-cost ‌iPhone‌ models in India to meet local investment requirements, and has recently started assembling the iPhone SE and the iPhone 11 in the country through manufacturing partners Wistron and Foxconn, respectively.

Previous news:
[URL]https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1281504714077560832[/URL]
https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1156987753151782915

Maybe Tesla can invest in a solar/Buffalo-like production factory in India and that would be enough to meet the investment requirement for them to be able to sell MIC Model 3/Y in India.

 

[Tslynk67]

Market Monkeys trying to set sentiment for today's trading. Doesn't help that tech futures are flat right now either.

I can't see that they'd like it below $2000 as there's quite a few puts and no calls sitting there.

Astonishing that yesterday's trading was nearly 60% shorting, plus the shorting we don't get to see or hear much about. Although no real investors would be selling right now, so it's rather logical.

 

[vikings123]

Market Monkeys trying to set sentiment for today's trading. Doesn't help that tech futures are flat right now either.

I can't see that they'd like it below $2000 as there's quite a few puts and no calls sitting there.

Astonishing that yesterday's trading was nearly 60% shorting, plus the shorting we don't get to see or hear much about. Although no real investors would be selling right now, so it's rather logical.

I think this is mostly our shortie friends trying to play some games in the morning. Put to call ratio has gone up for sure.

Anybody know at what time the OI numbers are published? I’m still seeing the 21K OI for 2100 weekly calls.

 

[Singuy]

Market Monkeys trying to set sentiment for today's trading. Doesn't help that tech futures are flat right now either.

I can't see that they'd like it below $2000 as there's quite a few puts and no calls sitting there.

Astonishing that yesterday's trading was nearly 60% shorting, plus the shorting we don't get to see or hear much about. Although no real investors would be selling right now, so it's rather logical.

I think the sentiment was set yesterday and this is just momentum across the market as travel stocks recover. I think things will continue to be trash until Thursday. Hoping this post doesn't age well.

 

[CHGolferJim]

OP “Those looking for a stock price growth of 40% will probably be somewhat disappointed due to P/E compression over time as the company gets bigger. People will be skeptical that a $1T company can continue to grow 50% in a year.”


I agree that the stock price increase will not be consistent. But if they can consistently execute at the 50% growth rate then eventually the stock over the course of several years should balance out to an average 50% growth rate as well.

HODL

50% CAGR at the revenue line is the total business, right, Cars + Energy + +? We are looking forward to the 3Q results where the story is P&L leverage from increased vehicle production. Doesn’t that leverage continue in coming years? Tempering effects come in from capital investment and expenses, P/E compression, etc.

 

[scaesare]

I'm catching up on lots of pages and I know most are focusing on batteries (and possibly powertrain, aircraft).

However...

The Gigapress fascinates me and I've been trying to understand the speed.

I think the best appreciation I have is from a youtube video of a much smaller sibling.

Roughly one cycle every 30 seconds for an Idra 700 express / OL 700. Gigapress / casting is larger (so more time to cool down and cycle?) but also newer (hopefully faster). 1:26-1:56

View attachment 580470

So that's actually a casting machine (as you probably know).... and Tesla has built the world's largest one. Tesla also has one of the worlds largest stamping presses.

I've seen lots of articles calling it the gigapress. Has Elon referred to it as such?

 

[Nocturnal]

I’m starting to suspect that inclusion won’t happen. The easy path for the committee is to decide that adding Tesla will cause turmoil (especially with our macro)and the regulatory credits are a convenient justification. I also find it hard to believe the various passive fund managers are not pressuring them to leave Tesla out as that makes their own jobs easier.

between this is and unreasonably high and tin foil hat theories about battery day I’m suspecting a sell the news event. Battery day will be amazing news for the company, but being able to make a lot of batteries in house with a 20% increase in density is boring. People don’t understand how close batteries are to parity with ICE or that battery production is the limiting factor for EVs globally. Many seem to expect some magic solid state battery etc and I bet we aren’t getting that.

Jim Cramer favorably discusses Apple and Tesla.

CNBC - hour ago:

And he is still talking about the million mile battery in terms of a “battery that can last for a long time without a charge”. I’m so confused that people think a million mile battery means a million in range. Common misconception it seems. I hope this doesn’t cause disappointment.

 

[Singuy]

I’m starting to suspect that inclusion won’t happen. The easy path for the committee is to decide that adding Tesla will cause turmoil (especially with our macro)and the regulatory credits are a convenient justification. I also find it hard to believe the various passive fund managers are not pressuring them to leave Tesla out as that makes their own jobs easier.


And he is still talking about the million mile battery in terms of a “battery that can last for a long time without a charge”. I’m so confused that people think a million mile battery means a million in range. Common misconception it seems. I hope this doesn’t cause disappointment.

If he thinks a million battery can travel a million miles then that makes him a poor listener. Rob explained exactly what it is.

 

[UkNorthampton]

So that's actually a casting machine (as you probably know).... and Tesla has built the world's largest one. Tesla also has one of the worlds largest stamping presses.
I've seen lots of articles calling it the gigapress. Has Elon referred to it as such?

'Built' probably better phrased as 'ordered' many of an enlarged one (8 at each gigafactory?).

OLS CS (or OL CS) if you prefer.. OL CS

IDRA have it as Gigapress on their website

"Once again Idra Group proves to be a landmark for the global die casting market. The term Giga Press, coined by Riccardo Ferrario, CEO Idra, for the first order in the world of an OL 5500 CS HPDC machine, becomes part of Wikipedia, an online…" - News

 

[scaesare]

Ordered many of an enlarged one (8 at each gigafactory?).

OLS CS (or OL CS) if you prefer.. OL CS

IDRA have it as Gigapress on their website

View attachment 580479

Huh.

That's kinda too bad...somewhat misleading IMO.

 

[jeewee3000]

And he is still talking about the million mile battery in terms of a “battery that can last for a long time without a charge”. I’m so confused that people think a million mile battery means a million in range. Common misconception it seems. I hope this doesn’t cause disappointment.

I don't think anybody owning Tesla stock expects Tesla batteries to get to one million miles in range (on a single charge) ever. From 500 miles to one million miles would be a 2.000x increase. Nobody (invested) is that optimistic.

 

[aubreymcfato]

I don't think anybody owning Tesla stock expects Tesla batteries to get to one million miles in range (on a single charge) ever. From 500 miles to one million miles would be a 2.000x increase. Nobody (invested) is that optimistic.

Rob explained it at least twice, it's like saying "do 1000 miles with a gallon of fuel"...
But Cramer knows nothing about physics. I suspect he's not the only one.

 

[AlMc]

New max pain at 1950$ for Friday. Perhaps we can hope for that being some sort of an bottom.

Max Pain on Tuesday may not resemble Max Pain on Friday at market close. it is fairly fluid early in the trading week.

 

[Stretch2727]

I’m starting to suspect that inclusion won’t happen. The easy path for the committee is to decide that adding Tesla will cause turmoil (especially with our macro)and the regulatory credits are a convenient justification. I also find it hard to believe the various passive fund managers are not pressuring them to leave Tesla out as that makes their own jobs easier.

I am more convinced for long term holders S & P inclusion will not matter. Most of the analysis points to it being a one time event. They will likely wait a quarter or 2 when the profitability is even more clear. At the same time, the longer they wait the harder this becomes and I don't see them leaving TSLA out forever as it likely will be one of the top 3-4 largest market cap stocks.

Good news is there will not be any announcement if they delay. So the traders that are trying to front run this will have to just hold on or some will slowly take the gains from the split announcement.

 

[Singuy]

I am more convinced for long term holders S & P inclusion will not matter. Most of the analysis points to it being a one time event. They will likely wait a quarter or 2 when the profitability is even more clear. At the same time, the longer they wait the harder this becomes and I don't see them leaving TSLA out forever as it likely will be one of the top 3-4 largest market cap stocks.

Good news is there will not be any announcement if they delay. So the traders that are trying to front run this will have to just hold on or some will slowly take the gains from the split announcement.

S&P inclusion does matter as not being in it will have musk lash out since he hates being picked on for no reason if all metrics qualifies Tesla for inclusion. As there will also be less attacks and less volitality if in the S&P because now it's tied to everyone's retirement fund. Lastly, people here will probably like musk attribute the lack of inclusion as a conspiracy attributed to big oil or something. Overall a gigantic headache and it's best if TSLA is in the S&P even if it does nothing to the stock performance.