Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Tes La Ferrari]

I think Elon is trying to tell us something about BDay.
View attachment 581071

Can’t wait till he starts talking to us about the 18650

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

But don't you all think it will difficult to achieve another 10x? 4 trillion dollars? Sure maybe in 10 year, but not in a few years.

2-3x in the next 5 years? Over or under optimistic?

Tesla's roadmap of growth between now and end of 2022 is crystal clear to anyone willing to look into it. Tesla will easily be worth 800 billion by end of 2022 if Tesla executes it's roadmap and really.....given their execution over the past 1.5 years, I think they exceed it. So 1.2 trillion market cap in 2 and a half years is realistic to me.

As traxila said, FSD is the wild card factor....but purely in a positive way. If we don't have FSD/Robotaxi, I'm confident in my estimate above. If we do have it by end of 2022, take the market cap of 800 billion to 1.2 trillion and double it.

Edit: FSD is why I would never chance trading in and out of my position. Could cause massive re-evaluation of Tesla's value in a very short period, maybe as soon as the re-write release if it's as impressive as Elon's making it out to be.

 

[Nocturnal]

Tesla's roadmap of growth between now and end of 2022 is crystal clear to anyone willing to look into it. Tesla will easily be worth 800 billion by end of 2022 if Tesla executes it's roadmap and really.....given their execution over the past 1.5 years, I think they exceed it. So 1.2 trillion market cap in 2 and a half years is realistic to me.

As traxila said, FSD is the wild card factor....but purely in a positive way. If we don't have FSD/Robotaxi, I'm confident in my estimate above. If we do have it by end of 2022, take the market cap of 800 billion to 1.2 trillion and double it.

Edit: FSD is why I would never chance trading in and out of my position. Could cause massive re-evaluation of Tesla's value in a very short period, maybe as soon as the re-write release if it's as impressive as Elon's making it out to be.

People seem to forget as well, that the WORST case for FSD is just a very expensive and very high margin drive assistant software. That is something legacy auto would kill to have.

 

[OrthoSurg]

So.... now the sources of profit matters
Tesla’s earnings quality could pose dilemma for S&P overseers - BNN Bloomberg

«
Specifically, Tesla would not have made money on a generally accepted accounting principles basis the last several quarters without the sale of regulatory credits to carmakers that need help complying with toughening emissions standards around the world. In the first half of this year, the company booked US$782 million of revenue from the sale of those credits, which are pretty much all profit, according to Nicholas Colas, DataTrek’s co-founder. That compares with US$220 million posted in GAAP net income.

“This puts the S&P committee in charge of adding names to the 500 in a real bind, because while to the letter of their ‘law’ Tesla qualifies for inclusion this is purely due to regulatory arbitrage -- not fundamental profitability from designing, manufacturing and selling cars,” wrote Colas, who in the 1990s spent nearly a decade as an equity auto analyst at First Boston. »

 

[CLK350]

re: TheTalkingMule said: ↑
Sorry for the OT question, but hey.....it's the weekend.

Can someone please splain to me how Salesforce is worth $250B? I mean, an argument could be made that they've peaked already and their net profit is pretty much zero.

I'm the Salesforce person at my job. Our instance is fairly small but at around $170-$200 per person per month it adds up fast. Plus yes they offer a whole suite of additional services and packages as well as "premium" support.

This is not recent news, but from what I see, in the IT world things have changed over the past 10 years. Used to be the CIO (Chief Information Officer) was the a big guy in the company, like the CFO - both reporting to the CEO. Now it is the marketing guy: the shift has been now to reorganize companies to be customer facing - making bank offices like shopping places would be the extreme. That and moving the IT infrastructure to the cloud (meaning no longer large computer systems to maintain locally) is probably what makes the Salesforce so valuable. Not that I endorse Salesforce, I don't follow this area at all.

 

[M|S|M MYP]

Heard deliveries in the EU are going down...based on this video

https://twitter.com/i/status/1298706950922874880

 

[mejojo]

Trailing stops can be great for trading, but in this case if they were to trigger 37% of my gains go to the Treasury.

1) Don't forget state taxes
2) NEVER "invest" your tax payment cash

 

[M|S|M MYP]

So.... now the sources of profit matters
Tesla’s earnings quality could pose dilemma for S&P overseers - BNN Bloomberg

«
Specifically, Tesla would not have made money on a generally accepted accounting principles basis the last several quarters without the sale of regulatory credits to carmakers that need help complying with toughening emissions standards around the world. In the first half of this year, the company booked US$782 million of revenue from the sale of those credits, which are pretty much all profit, according to Nicholas Colas, DataTrek’s co-founder. That compares with US$220 million posted in GAAP net income.

“This puts the S&P committee in charge of adding names to the 500 in a real bind, because while to the letter of their ‘law’ Tesla qualifies for inclusion this is purely due to regulatory arbitrage -- not fundamental profitability from designing, manufacturing and selling cars,” wrote Colas, who in the 1990s spent nearly a decade as an equity auto analyst at First Boston. »

Eh....at this point....$TSLA is doing just fine with no inclusion....but....its probably gonna come after the split

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

People seem to forget as well, that the WORST case for FSD is just a very expensive and very high margin drive assistant software. That is something legacy auto would kill to have.

And we have the FSD monthly subscription model coming at the end of this year. If there's one thing Wall St loves......it's recurring revenue-based business models

 

[Motor Mouth]

So.... now the sources of profit matters
Tesla’s earnings quality could pose dilemma for S&P overseers - BNN Bloomberg

«
Specifically, Tesla would not have made money on a generally accepted accounting principles basis the last several quarters without the sale of regulatory credits to carmakers that need help complying with toughening emissions standards around the world. In the first half of this year, the company booked US$782 million of revenue from the sale of those credits, which are pretty much all profit, according to Nicholas Colas, DataTrek’s co-founder. That compares with US$220 million posted in GAAP net income.

“This puts the S&P committee in charge of adding names to the 500 in a real bind, because while to the letter of their ‘law’ Tesla qualifies for inclusion this is purely due to regulatory arbitrage -- not fundamental profitability from designing, manufacturing and selling cars,” wrote Colas, who in the 1990s spent nearly a decade as an equity auto analyst at First Boston. »

I read references to this as a FUD type commentary in the past couple of days. While I tend to now agree that S&P inclusion is getting increasingly irrelevant, it's somewhat annoying to parse out components of profit from TSLA (or any company really) unless the premise is that revenue is unsustainable. Unless I'm missing something, regulatory credits may decrease in value in the coming years, but it ain't happening quickly or soon. So, why is this component of TSLA profit somehow a problem? In my view, it's exactly the opposite. It's a revenue source that TSLA can control and tweak entirely at will. To view it as anything other than an perpetual competitive advantage is wrongheaded to me.

 

[Bet TSLA]

Fair enough.

Did you sell everything that you owe so much?

I have more invested in Tesla now than I ever have before. But I own only 1000 shares at the moment. Mostly I'm in calls and short puts. Lots of short term gains (and losses, but net gains). I think my taxes will be double the value of my entire portfolio at the beginning of the year. Truly awesome!

 

[rah7777]

Zsozso: "Cramer does not get that 400-500 mile range-per-charge (present in S - coming in cybertruck/roadster) is enough and you do not need longer, pointless."

I must respectfully disagree that longer range is pointless. I have a 416 mile route that I travel several times a month. There are only three superchargers on that route and I must visit all three if I wish to keep a safe margin. Longer range would allow me to skip one of those or take a scenic detour if I wished. In addition, a bigger battery charges at a high rate for a longer period before tapering is required, shortening my time at the SCs.

My experience after 7 years with a P85 and a 100D is that actual range is less than 70% of rated range when traveling at high speeds, traversing elevation changes, and/or battling rain and headwinds. Range degradation as the battery ages only makes things worse. If you wish to treat your battery properly, you can't start out with a 100% charge with any regularity, so your trip planning won't be based on a 100% charge - more likely 90%.

My 2 cents - can't speak for anyone else.

You are so correct! Most people don’t even think like that. Also even if you don’t need the range but would like faster charging the a large battery would be beneficial. This is accomplished (as most know) by charging between 20% and 80%. On a 400 mile battery this provides a range of about 250 miles with a charge time of about 15 minutes. Try charging a 250 mile range battery that quick. Would likely be over 30 minutes with warms up and tapering.

 

[wipster]

Eh....at this point....$TSLA is doing just fine with no inclusion....but....its probably gonna come after the split

Frankly, after that statement by the S&P representative, I think TSLA should them to piss off if they think that certain aspects of GAAP revenue shouldn't count because of how it was earned. That's playing some real low-ball IMHO.

(In other words what Motor Mouth said)

 

[Unpilot]

So.... now the sources of profit matters
Tesla’s earnings quality could pose dilemma for S&P overseers - BNN Bloomberg

«
Specifically, Tesla would not have made money on a generally accepted accounting principles basis the last several quarters without the sale of regulatory credits to carmakers that need help complying with toughening emissions standards around the world. In the first half of this year, the company booked US$782 million of revenue from the sale of those credits, which are pretty much all profit, according to Nicholas Colas, DataTrek’s co-founder. That compares with US$220 million posted in GAAP net income.

“This puts the S&P committee in charge of adding names to the 500 in a real bind, because while to the letter of their ‘law’ Tesla qualifies for inclusion this is purely due to regulatory arbitrage -- not fundamental profitability from designing, manufacturing and selling cars,” wrote Colas, who in the 1990s spent nearly a decade as an equity auto analyst at First Boston. »

Reading accounting statement's and 10Q's to me sounds like this.

 

[Knightshade]

Frankly, after that statement by the S&P representative, I think TSLA should them to piss off if they think that certain aspects of GAAP revenue shouldn't count because of how it was earned.

Uh- that wasn't from an S&P rep.

It was just some rando finance guy who used to be an auto analyst in the 90s.

The only reference in the story to an actual S&P guy is:

Ray McConville, an S&P Dow Jones spokesman, declined a request for comment

 

[joh01652]

Everybody in my life is so sick of hearing about TSLA. That’s why I spend so much time here! Love to see the beast eating like this! Congratulations longs

I'm glad I'm not alone here. My GF also hates hearing me talk about Tesla. In 2019 she didn't want me buying my 3, and thought I was stupid when in June I traded in the 3 for the Y. And every time the SP hit a multiple of $100 earlier this year she implored me to sell.

She's still finds this all unsettling with the SP >$2000, but at least she stops bugging me to sell it all. And now she's more of a fan of Tesla cars than I am, and is always happy to share her Tesla experiences/knowledge with others. Frankly, she's a much better advocate/ambassador than I am because she's very attractive and people connect well with her.

 

[Artful Dodger]

One thought is selling calls. That allows you to bring in some cash, and if you get called then well, you were considering lightening your portfolio anyway. Accumulated premiums from tesla calls over a few months could do a lot to blunt a drop in the SP itself.


I think we need more gradation. Somebody is a multi millionaire technically when they hit 2 million, and that goes all the way up to 999 million.

Or, considering the term millionaire was coined in 1843, we can adjust two million back then for inflation and wind up with 52 million dollars today. (using 1913 numbers as that is the earliest this calculator goes back) So being a mult millionaire nowadays is a far cry from back then.

Lol, back in 1913 a slow boat ride across the Atlantic could cost you your life. Now aviation is safer than showering.

I'll take those millions in 2020 dollars, thanks all the same.

Cheers!

 

[Thekiwi]

So.... now the sources of profit matters
Tesla’s earnings quality could pose dilemma for S&P overseers - BNN Bloomberg

«
Specifically, Tesla would not have made money on a generally accepted accounting principles basis the last several quarters without the sale of regulatory credits to carmakers that need help complying with toughening emissions standards around the world. In the first half of this year, the company booked US$782 million of revenue from the sale of those credits, which are pretty much all profit, according to Nicholas Colas, DataTrek’s co-founder. That compares with US$220 million posted in GAAP net income.

“This puts the S&P committee in charge of adding names to the 500 in a real bind, because while to the letter of their ‘law’ Tesla qualifies for inclusion this is purely due to regulatory arbitrage -- not fundamental profitability from designing, manufacturing and selling cars,” wrote Colas, who in the 1990s spent nearly a decade as an equity auto analyst at First Boston. »

So do these same people value other carmakers profits based on what they would have instead been if they had paid fines/penalties instead of buying regulatory credits off of Tesla?

 

[AudubonB]

What type of music do we play if TSLA closes at a market cap over 400 Billion?

I’m on the road and super-limited, but I’ll very strongly suggest Verdi, in...”honor”... of all the shorts and naysayers out there.

Most specifically, the Dies Irae from his Requiem. After all these decades, it remains my Go To shower song

Dies irae
Dies illa
Solvet saeclum in favilla

and so forth. Their Day of Wrath indeed.

My translation on edit of this opening stanza:

O, day of wrath
O, day of sorrow
All dissolving into ashes....

Ya gotta gotta love it!

 

[jerry33]

So do these same people value other carmakers profits based on what they would have instead been if they had paid fines/penalties instead of buying regulatory credits off of Tesla?

Of course not. The other carmakers pay the advertising ransom.